buffettgambler
EOG Veteran
Saturday
Seahawks -3.5
The Redskins have become NFL?s feel good story after winning their last four games of the season without their starting quarterback and having to deal with the Taylor tragedy. They have become the NFC?s sleeper team, entering the season with momentum and a ?me against the world? mentality. But how justified is this new found love for the team? Early line movement says so, I beg to differ. Beating the Bears at home, allowing the Giants to beat themselves, and beating a collapsing Vikings and half hearted Cowboys team leaves a lot to be desired. I will gladly back one of the best home teams of the last five years when they are out of favor.
The Seahawks are a better all around team entering this game with a lot more experience. The Redskins pass defense is exploitable against quality passing games, something they really haven?t faced much in the second half of the season. Hassleback?s ability to get rid of the ball early and depend on the first level should offset the Redskins complex blitzing schemes. Their depth at receiver should pay dividends against the questionable depth in the Redskins secondary. If the Seahawks up tempo passing game that is usually successful at home becomes effective early, the Redskins momentum entering the game should disappear really quickly, while Collins true worth will be finally tested.
I don?t expect much from the Redskins offensively Saturday. Although Collins? arrival has added some spark, it was derived with a lot of smoke and mirrors (favorable match ups and dink and dunk passes) and lacks sustainability. With extra film on Collins and a ferocious pass rush, expect Collins deficiencies to finally come to fruition this week. Ideally the Redskins would like to take pressure off of him with a heavy dose of running. However, the Redskins running game is better on paper than it is on the field, while the Seahawks run defense is one of the best and most underrated in the league. Without an effective running game to fall back on, Collins and the Redskins offensive line will be overwhelmed by the Seahawks disguised coverage, complex blitzing schemes and ability to get to the quarterback as well as any other NFC team.
Expect the Redskins feel good story to come to an end Saturday. Success driven by smoke and mirrors doesn?t usually last come playoff time. This holds especially true against an experienced team that has been dominant at home for years. Value is on the Seahawks in my opinion.
Steelers +2.5
Prior to season?s start, I claimed the Jaguars were the AFC?s sleeper team, a legitimate top tier competitor and a team that would continually trade below intrinsic value. All three assumptions have held true. However, much like the Redskins, the Jaguars have become a team that has a full bandwagon, and that means its time for me to jump off. I will gladly take a playoff tested home team that has become out of favor and is getting points.
There is no denying the Jaguars are the team playing better football, are healthier, and had the upper hand against their opponent less than a month ago. However, books compensated for such variables with the opening price, and line movement has magnified the issue. The Jaguars have the most underrated passing game in the league and a dominant running game. However, neither should be expected to have the upper hand against arguably the NFL?s best defense. If the Steelers can curtail the potency of the Jaguars running game, which they can easily do, the Jaguars may find trouble. Although Garrard has put forth a solid season, I question his ability to sustain his regular season play in his first playoff start, on the road, and against a complex defense.
Much like the Jaguars, the Steelers are heavily dependent on their running game for success. Perception is the Jaguars have a dominant run defense, and the Steelers running game will suffer without Parker. However, perception may not be reality in this game. The Jaguars run defense is overrated, and their numbers masked by playing with big leads and against not many dominant running attacks. Although the depth and integrity of employing a multi style running attack is questioned with the absence of Parker, the expected decrease in efficiency in the Steelers running game is blown out of proportion. Davenport was more efficient, more consistent, and secured the ball better than Parker. He is also better suited to handle the physicality of the Jaguars defense. The Steelers passing game has gone downhill, but I will gladly back Ben when out of favor and expected to due poorly.
Pittsburgh is a brutal place to play in come playoff time. Especially for an inexperienced team lead by an inexperienced quarterback. I have not problem backing the Steelers when they are out of favor and with their backs against the wall- as that is when they are at their best. The Jaguars had a great season, but is should come to an end Saturday Night.
Sunday
Bucs -3
I have backed the Bucs more than any other team this season, and I will not stop now, as they continue to get value as a home playoff team.
I have said it all season, the Bucs don?t have an explosive offense, but do have one of the most efficient and underrated units in the league. They take what defenses give you, are able to attack opponents weaknesses, are well balanced, and don?t make mistakes. Most of the public hasn?t grasped such a concept all season, and without having their starters on the field for two weeks, some have also forgotten such a concept. Most expect the Bucs passing game to stall Sunday. They think of the Giants pass rush and the lack of receiving threats in the Bucs passing game. However, I expect them to have success in the air, as they fundamentally match up well against an average Giants pass defense. The Giants secondary is suspect and lack an ideal candidate to match up with Galloway. Their superb pass rush can wreak havoc on most passing games, but the Bucs style can counter such strength. The Bucs are heavily dependent on short passes and passes to the running back, variables that automatically counter this Giants strength. Add the notion that the Giants have been one of the least effective teams in defending such a passing play, and I expect the Bucs to be just fine in the air. The Bucs running game is underrated and consistent. Their young line has performed well all season and could win the battle of the trenches in run blocking situations. I don?t expect a dominant running attack, but an effective enough one to provide balance to the Bucs offense.
Manning is coming off his best game of the season and has been known to be highly streaky. However signs of a potential upward trend can quickly come to an end this week against a top notch pass defense like the Bucs. The complex looks and team speed can pose problems for Manning. With Barbers ability to counter Burress and the absence of Shockey, Manning may lack passing options. The Bucs run defense should also slowdown Jacobs, not giving the Giants any exploitable offensive edge.
Weaknesses are magnified in the playoffs. This bodes well for a well balanced team who lacks a weakness like the Bucs. This does not hold true for the Giants who possess a suspect secondary and a highly inconsistent passing game. It looks like I will back the Bucs until I don?t have a choice to do so. In my opinion, I will have another opportunity next week to do such.
Titans/Chargers Under 39.5
In their first match up I took the Under (and barely won). I see no reason not to do such again.
I have said this for weeks, the Chargers improved play has predominately been due to the solid play of their defense, which has been flying under the radar due to the big names of their offensive players. The Chargers have the hottest and one of the top three defenses in the playoffs. On the other hand, the Titans are the worst playoff team offensively, and have been getting progressively worse. Young is more name than substance, and should have a reduced role, as the Titans are going to rely on their running game and defense to pull off the upset. This holds especially true with their best receiving option out for this game. Expect the Titans to run as much as possible and keep their passing playbook limited in order to prevent costly mistakes Young is prone to making and the Chargers are prone to creating. The Chargers biggest weakness is their run defense, which should allow the Titans some success to move the ball on the ground, but not enough to become detrimental to the Under. The decisive advantage the Chargers pass defense possesses should prevent the Titans offense from becoming multi dimensional, which therefore limit the points they put on the board. Expect a lot of drives stalled with punts and field goals, as the end zone might not be seen all day out of Titans offense.
The Titans defense has not gotten the credit it was receiving at the beginning of the year. Although there has been somewhat of a drop-off in defensive productivity, it has mainly come due to games in which they were without Haynesworth, and not due to them playing at a level above their heads. Expect the Chargers to also rely on their running game and defense to win. Rivers still can not be trusted, especially going against a dominant pass defense that proved to have the upper hand against him in their first meeting. If the Chargers are going to find success, it will be against a mediocre run defense that will counter with stacked boxes and force Tomlinson to grind out yards. The Chargers may have successful drives, but it will come at the expense of clock time. This should be a defensive struggle and game of field position. I like the Under.
Seahawks -3.5
The Redskins have become NFL?s feel good story after winning their last four games of the season without their starting quarterback and having to deal with the Taylor tragedy. They have become the NFC?s sleeper team, entering the season with momentum and a ?me against the world? mentality. But how justified is this new found love for the team? Early line movement says so, I beg to differ. Beating the Bears at home, allowing the Giants to beat themselves, and beating a collapsing Vikings and half hearted Cowboys team leaves a lot to be desired. I will gladly back one of the best home teams of the last five years when they are out of favor.
The Seahawks are a better all around team entering this game with a lot more experience. The Redskins pass defense is exploitable against quality passing games, something they really haven?t faced much in the second half of the season. Hassleback?s ability to get rid of the ball early and depend on the first level should offset the Redskins complex blitzing schemes. Their depth at receiver should pay dividends against the questionable depth in the Redskins secondary. If the Seahawks up tempo passing game that is usually successful at home becomes effective early, the Redskins momentum entering the game should disappear really quickly, while Collins true worth will be finally tested.
I don?t expect much from the Redskins offensively Saturday. Although Collins? arrival has added some spark, it was derived with a lot of smoke and mirrors (favorable match ups and dink and dunk passes) and lacks sustainability. With extra film on Collins and a ferocious pass rush, expect Collins deficiencies to finally come to fruition this week. Ideally the Redskins would like to take pressure off of him with a heavy dose of running. However, the Redskins running game is better on paper than it is on the field, while the Seahawks run defense is one of the best and most underrated in the league. Without an effective running game to fall back on, Collins and the Redskins offensive line will be overwhelmed by the Seahawks disguised coverage, complex blitzing schemes and ability to get to the quarterback as well as any other NFC team.
Expect the Redskins feel good story to come to an end Saturday. Success driven by smoke and mirrors doesn?t usually last come playoff time. This holds especially true against an experienced team that has been dominant at home for years. Value is on the Seahawks in my opinion.
Steelers +2.5
Prior to season?s start, I claimed the Jaguars were the AFC?s sleeper team, a legitimate top tier competitor and a team that would continually trade below intrinsic value. All three assumptions have held true. However, much like the Redskins, the Jaguars have become a team that has a full bandwagon, and that means its time for me to jump off. I will gladly take a playoff tested home team that has become out of favor and is getting points.
There is no denying the Jaguars are the team playing better football, are healthier, and had the upper hand against their opponent less than a month ago. However, books compensated for such variables with the opening price, and line movement has magnified the issue. The Jaguars have the most underrated passing game in the league and a dominant running game. However, neither should be expected to have the upper hand against arguably the NFL?s best defense. If the Steelers can curtail the potency of the Jaguars running game, which they can easily do, the Jaguars may find trouble. Although Garrard has put forth a solid season, I question his ability to sustain his regular season play in his first playoff start, on the road, and against a complex defense.
Much like the Jaguars, the Steelers are heavily dependent on their running game for success. Perception is the Jaguars have a dominant run defense, and the Steelers running game will suffer without Parker. However, perception may not be reality in this game. The Jaguars run defense is overrated, and their numbers masked by playing with big leads and against not many dominant running attacks. Although the depth and integrity of employing a multi style running attack is questioned with the absence of Parker, the expected decrease in efficiency in the Steelers running game is blown out of proportion. Davenport was more efficient, more consistent, and secured the ball better than Parker. He is also better suited to handle the physicality of the Jaguars defense. The Steelers passing game has gone downhill, but I will gladly back Ben when out of favor and expected to due poorly.
Pittsburgh is a brutal place to play in come playoff time. Especially for an inexperienced team lead by an inexperienced quarterback. I have not problem backing the Steelers when they are out of favor and with their backs against the wall- as that is when they are at their best. The Jaguars had a great season, but is should come to an end Saturday Night.
Sunday
Bucs -3
I have backed the Bucs more than any other team this season, and I will not stop now, as they continue to get value as a home playoff team.
I have said it all season, the Bucs don?t have an explosive offense, but do have one of the most efficient and underrated units in the league. They take what defenses give you, are able to attack opponents weaknesses, are well balanced, and don?t make mistakes. Most of the public hasn?t grasped such a concept all season, and without having their starters on the field for two weeks, some have also forgotten such a concept. Most expect the Bucs passing game to stall Sunday. They think of the Giants pass rush and the lack of receiving threats in the Bucs passing game. However, I expect them to have success in the air, as they fundamentally match up well against an average Giants pass defense. The Giants secondary is suspect and lack an ideal candidate to match up with Galloway. Their superb pass rush can wreak havoc on most passing games, but the Bucs style can counter such strength. The Bucs are heavily dependent on short passes and passes to the running back, variables that automatically counter this Giants strength. Add the notion that the Giants have been one of the least effective teams in defending such a passing play, and I expect the Bucs to be just fine in the air. The Bucs running game is underrated and consistent. Their young line has performed well all season and could win the battle of the trenches in run blocking situations. I don?t expect a dominant running attack, but an effective enough one to provide balance to the Bucs offense.
Manning is coming off his best game of the season and has been known to be highly streaky. However signs of a potential upward trend can quickly come to an end this week against a top notch pass defense like the Bucs. The complex looks and team speed can pose problems for Manning. With Barbers ability to counter Burress and the absence of Shockey, Manning may lack passing options. The Bucs run defense should also slowdown Jacobs, not giving the Giants any exploitable offensive edge.
Weaknesses are magnified in the playoffs. This bodes well for a well balanced team who lacks a weakness like the Bucs. This does not hold true for the Giants who possess a suspect secondary and a highly inconsistent passing game. It looks like I will back the Bucs until I don?t have a choice to do so. In my opinion, I will have another opportunity next week to do such.
Titans/Chargers Under 39.5
In their first match up I took the Under (and barely won). I see no reason not to do such again.
I have said this for weeks, the Chargers improved play has predominately been due to the solid play of their defense, which has been flying under the radar due to the big names of their offensive players. The Chargers have the hottest and one of the top three defenses in the playoffs. On the other hand, the Titans are the worst playoff team offensively, and have been getting progressively worse. Young is more name than substance, and should have a reduced role, as the Titans are going to rely on their running game and defense to pull off the upset. This holds especially true with their best receiving option out for this game. Expect the Titans to run as much as possible and keep their passing playbook limited in order to prevent costly mistakes Young is prone to making and the Chargers are prone to creating. The Chargers biggest weakness is their run defense, which should allow the Titans some success to move the ball on the ground, but not enough to become detrimental to the Under. The decisive advantage the Chargers pass defense possesses should prevent the Titans offense from becoming multi dimensional, which therefore limit the points they put on the board. Expect a lot of drives stalled with punts and field goals, as the end zone might not be seen all day out of Titans offense.
The Titans defense has not gotten the credit it was receiving at the beginning of the year. Although there has been somewhat of a drop-off in defensive productivity, it has mainly come due to games in which they were without Haynesworth, and not due to them playing at a level above their heads. Expect the Chargers to also rely on their running game and defense to win. Rivers still can not be trusted, especially going against a dominant pass defense that proved to have the upper hand against him in their first meeting. If the Chargers are going to find success, it will be against a mediocre run defense that will counter with stacked boxes and force Tomlinson to grind out yards. The Chargers may have successful drives, but it will come at the expense of clock time. This should be a defensive struggle and game of field position. I like the Under.
