FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

This is hopeless, another Suns over, we are doomed. Does this team ever go under, not for me.



Here you go Ivan. This will stop that scoring.


OF...:Dance
 
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

Frog I got abit of Suns@Clips U215.5 for Sat (what u think?)

I think this team is 4-0 overs now. Never plays defense. Called a TO down by 8 with 20 seconds left to foul and shoot, another 4 points, do the same thing again with 11 seonds left, down by 8, 4 more points, then foul again down by 6 with 3 seconds left. The worst move of the night on totals, the rest were pretty solid. Dropped from 217 1/2 to 211. Poof! 222.

OF...:whatever:

Ivan could you bet something easier to root for besides Suns unders?:+clueless
 

Mr. Smith

EOG Master
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

good luck Frog. If Frog loses like 6 plays in a row at some point, would it be possible for Old Man Ned to visit this thread to tell Frog that he is too good of a handicapper not to turn this around and he is a class act?


:houra
 

CrazyIvan

EOG Veteran
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

Frog - didnt watch the 2nd Half, guess that last 2 minutes or so cost me the total ... argh.. when I left at halftime, it looked good oh well.. I cant pick winners even if i follow the steam, im cursed in the Association.
 

CrazyIvan

EOG Veteran
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

Any Sunday plays Froggie?

I actually like most of the dogs here, lean towards 76ers as the best...
 
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

Frog - didnt watch the 2nd Half, guess that last 2 minutes or so cost me the total ... argh.. when I left at halftime, it looked good oh well.. I cant pick winners even if i follow the steam, im cursed in the Association.

I actually thought you were live but the Suns just kept fouling with game out of reach and not enough time left to comeback. The only reason I put the game end down there was to show you how they handle it, which can be vitally important betting totals. Most coaches would have called it a night. Better luck.

OF...:+waving-5
 
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

good luck Frog. If Frog loses like 6 plays in a row at some point, would it be possible for Old Man Ned to visit this thread to tell Frog that he is too good of a handicapper not to turn this around and he is a class act?


:houra

Hey Mr. Smith. Yes, I need my colorful spreadsheets and my preseason record also. Lot of flash and razzle dazzle, but marketing does not handicap games. Speaking of that, I need to get to work. Have a lot of early games today. Thanks for stoppin by. Just a few more guys left.


OF...:+waving-5
 
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

Not anymore Jimmy. Guess I will have to reload them, I missed that one. Thanks for the info.


OF...:+signs8-3
 

dirty

EOG Master
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

Frog - didnt watch the 2nd Half, guess that last 2 minutes or so cost me the total ... argh.. when I left at halftime, it looked good oh well.. I cant pick winners even if i follow the steam, im cursed in the Association.



Ivan I got Burned like this many times last year on Phoenix unders... I learned the hard way....let the number get bet down and then hit the over alot of times or just stay away..... They average a shot every 8 seconds they touch the ball... and when they play a team like the Clips that run at home.... then that is a recipe for Disaster
 
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

already down to 186
i got 187 at abc

man 2* must be a large play for you to move the line like that:LMAO


You ain't seen nuthin yet...


OF...:+whipping


My -4 1/2 on Spurs is looking good. Whiffed on Rockets +4 and small Lakers +3. Also got over 192 1/2 Raptors. If I am not in front of these moves I barely can get down. If I am in front, and the others like it also you will see 8-10 point moves on totals. This is not the NFL, they move with the slightest breeze, especially totals. And the NCAA obscure games?
 

dirty

EOG Master
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

pHilly Total just got smoked back up to 189....Looks like early morning steam is getting pounded in the other direction now...STill can get some 187's out there....
 

Jack Straw

EOG Member
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

pHilly Total just got smoked back up to 189....Looks like early morning steam is getting pounded in the other direction now...STill can get some 187's out there....

hoping the games in the 80's :thumbsup
 
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

Toronto ov 192 (2 units) CRIS, Bet Jam, Sky, Can Bet


Last year amazingly same numbers same venue. Spurs -5 1/2 192. Final 125-118. I have watched both of these teams and Spurs will run and score if other team picks up pace.Cavs and Mavs look like lower scoring teams now. Raptors just ran good Bucks squad right out of building. They run every opportunity, every make or miss. Rarely set up half court, and their defense is still not very good.


OF...:+waving-5
 

kelp0027

EOG Dedicated
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

..

..those who study history; and do not understand that without change' history will repeat...>>>

nice play; and reasoning on tor/s.a over..!!

nice bet

gl

:+music1-6
 
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

Still some left at Matchbook...

<TABLE class=inBinTable cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=mbCss-runner vAlign=bottom width=142>Over 192.0</TD><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=mbCss-odds-best id=bro-176519-w-1>-106</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 

dirty

EOG Master
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

Like them both Froggy....going to get on the train.... I am adding ATL over to my plays....been bet down as far as it is going...:cheers
 
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

hoping the games in the 80's :thumbsup

They move everything back to openers on that wave. Seattle had gone from -1 to -3, now 1 is back. NOK had gone from -2 to -4, back to 2. That 76er total we moved down from 188 1/2, to 186, they pushed it back to 189, the opener, nad it is also, back where it started. The moves that have stuck are Spurs -4 1/2 to 7. Atl un 199 to 193 1/2, we know ATL is not scoring a lot and seems to be better defensively. NOK un 188 to 182 1/2. Not sure on that one. Two good defensive teams I guess. I have some decent ranges, but need my totals to hit. Same up and backs as before, but way more movement than NFL and yesterday NBA. As long as the numbers are moving it is something to work. Last minute takeback on Raptors, might end up less than 6?

OF...:cheers
 
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

Still some left at Matchbook...

<TABLE class=inBinTable cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=mbCss-runner vAlign=bottom width=142>Over 192.0</TD><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=mbCss-odds-best id=bro-176519-w-1>-106</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Because I am not in there yet. I went 191 1/2 -1.11 Pinny drop. I balance funds on slow Monday, so I will be back there then. If anything the steam sure is exciting.

OF...:houra
 
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

Nice call on the sa/tor over ,now lets see if they can slow down the sixers game :cheers:+signs8-3
 

kelp0027

EOG Dedicated
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

phroggie:

i wanta have your tadpoles; i whamped 'um on the over 192 tor; was scared in 1st q; but then fate intervened..>>

ribett; ribett..!!

nice play!!!

gl

:+music1-6 :party
 
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

Noon wakeup call for OF in case the cigars and wine were excessive this weekend.


:+music1-6
 
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

Updated record 7-4 (63%) +4.2 units. Winning days 3-2. Winning weeks 1-0.


Pretty sure record is correct but if I ever screw it up please let me know. Could have used the 5 cent juice plan ACE has since I split the last two sessions. I count those as nonwinning days because losing juice is not winning. No preseason record either. But what I want to emphasize is the longer term results are most important. I can handle losing days, but losing weeks are tough. This is one long season, after the preseason then post season so we have to remain focused on the ultimate goal, consistently remaining profitable. I could put all sorts of dollar amounts, $3,000 plays and other bs but that is marketing.

So I can pretty much recap this 6 day opening week.

The Good: Decent conservative start here. In real world went 6-0 for the week with a lot of fortuitous results. The Laker 6 on Kobe's return was the only way I would make anything that day. Yesterday I got pinned on a 76er money line that was not hedgible at the half, even with Shaq a nogo. So my good fortune continues.

The Bad: Bad timing on two of the losses, Atlanta, which has looked like world beaters since the crummy could not cover if we let you game and Celts over getting notched by a hoop when they are in a 240 game the next game. Timing is everything.

The Ugly: Yesterday I probably fumbled 3 to 4 times. I should have known Shaq was out, Don Best did not urgent message until game had went off, that sucks for $600 a month. But I know better and still did not know it, with the rest of the world. Obviously without Shaq the under play was dead from the tip. First time in a long time I botched a bet, naturally that won. I won't mention the book, but they have a real weak confirm screen, and I did not get a confirm even though I wrote it good. Again, my fault. Then I am working all of the numbers and I get most of the totals moving except the NOK game, which naturally middles because I missed it. I ended up going over 82 without any un 188 or 187, which were available. Not going to do well with those kind of amatuer hour mistakes, so I better get my act together.


You may think wtf FROG you went 6-0? That is hardly the point. Results mean a lot, but luck will not hold out. I need to be as mistake free as possible. I just slipped and tripped, maybe this 20+ day run has me a little slack, but I sure got a wake up call on that.

I called up SKY, griped about the free 1/2 point being gone. But clerk said management decision and it is bad form to get disgruntled with her, she is just doing her job. I could have requested to speak with management that made the decision, but I have more important things going on. Made my withdrawal and transferred bulk of funds to grandfathered IIS reduced juice sister shop. Also back in Matchbook per our union rep, thanks Jimmy. Have a lot of comm credits so I should have already been there. I don't like leaving best numbers out there.

Have been testing the waters on totals, and 2H's. Fair on totals, very good on 2H's. I sure hope someone out there took over and 76ers 2H yesterday. I see a lot of numbers moving with pretty good breadth. I will discuss that at a later time. I also am struggling posting the stuff I am getting because of it and because I want to build momentum rather than comeout guns a blazin.

Well, in a nutshell, can't complain about the start, but I still do, as I expect perfection on procedures. No excuses to half ass it. Life's been good to me so far...

OF...:cheers
 
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

Thoughts on the Bulls tonight Frog?

My thoughts on the Bulls remains about the same. They crushed a Heat team playing rodeo clowns, got way overated on that singkle result and have plummeted back to Earth. The number seems pretty good, common opponent Kings beat Bulls, but lost to Bucks, although Bucks caught them on 2nd of B2B. Bucks looked good in opener, laid an egg, then good again. Of course if forced I would always take the points here. But I will watch and learn on this one.

OF...:+clueless
 
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

Frog - you need to inform us if there any plays today?

Ivan


I need to do what? Yo Ivan, I don't need to do anything. You don't tell people volunteering their time and efforts that they need to do anything, or they may tell you to go fuck yourself. Want to try that again?

OF...:+whipping


I don't want or desire anyone to kiss my ass, tell me I am a class act or anything. But on the flip side, I don't like being told what to do. That will instantly piss me off.
 
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

Ha ha Ivan, very funny. Did I change my name to punkFROG or BitchFROG?




Frog - you need to inform us if there any plays today?

OF...:+waving-5
 

CrazyIvan

EOG Veteran
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

Me? I suck I pick unders and they go over always....

Giveme the plays FROG MAN!!!!! I want to dish out mad props to ya...
 

Egg Yolk Soup

EOG Senior Member
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

Frog, If you don't mind me asking could you teach me a lil bit on your handicapping methods. I'm new to NBA handicapping and Im just wondering some of the basic things you do to break down a game and find value. Thanks a lot.
 
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

Frog, If you don't mind me asking could you teach me a lil bit on your handicapping methods. I'm new to NBA handicapping and Im just wondering some of the basic things you do to break down a game and find value. Thanks a lot.




Get one of these, but make a paper cover with all the NBA teams. Close your eyes and hope for the best.

You know that is a great question, and it deserves a great answer, however due to FROG trade secrets, and need to know guidelines, I can't really just spill my guts here. Maybe when I retire and write a book.

Seriously, I had one of those moments of clarity, probably 15-20 years ago. I was in the sportsbook at Harrah's Lake Tahoe, and everyone was rooting for the Lakers, including myself. I even had a loud Gold Lakers starter jacket. And I was sitting next to this old man, not a fake one like Ted, but a real one. And while the Lakers are gagging and choking, this old guy is quietly talking to himself, that was a great play, that was very good ball movement, very good rotation. I was so full of myself at that age I thought I knew it all, and in this moment, where the entire crowd was on the chalk, this guy was alone, and on the right side. I was pissed, but not at him, but myself. I had no clue what I was even looking at. How the game should be played. Why was he right and I so wrong? He fully understood the game. The basic understanding of the game should be step one. There is a book, Basketball for Dummies. Digger Phelps, I am not joking. It works for all basketball. It breaks it down, both offense and defense, everything from ball movement to defensive rotations and help. Right now when I scout teams this early, I always fallback on that book, and try to observe who is doing what.

On any education there is a foundation, something you build off of. Mathmatics, physics, many subjects. You cannot grasp the advanced material until you fully comprehend the basics. In my mind, knowing how the game should be played, and what to look for is the first step. Of course it goes far beyond that, but if you are looking for somewhere to start, that is my recommendation. Build that strong foundation of knowledge, how should this game be played, and build on that. The advanced angles are all working from there. Does that make any sense?


OF...:thumbsup
 
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