FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

Yes, 2H will be in the portfolio also. But for this first week or so, maybe 3 or 4 games per team I need to scout them very close. I would rather spend my time getting up to speed early, so we can have a more educated opinion later. If you recall my 2H's and my totals were my most profitable segments. But for those I need tighter form. These moves on the totals have been brutalized. I am sitting on the shore basking in the sun watching them go down for the third time. Now is the time to take a watch and learn emphasis. Scouting.

Best Wishes...OF :+clueless
 
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

Lakers -4 1/2 -1.12 (2 units) Pinny


Writeup will follow...

What about those Lakers? Odom is playing inspired, death in his infant son, and faith in God, not me, have motivated him bigtime. Bynum is playing way beyond his years and rest of lineup is clicking well. Two huge upsets make me feel this team is not a hurt dog without Kobe. In fact, without him dominating the rock and going 13-40, they actually play much better team ball. They dusted a Suns team much better than what they see tonight. The not so Supersonics. No they are not super at all. They are decimated frontline already. Robert Swift the projected starting center blew out his knee, done for year. Mouhammed Sene is a green walk on. Only reason he got the job is Johan Petro regressed horribly since last year. He was just inept preseason, and got shuffled to last spot. But more bad news, Sene rolled his ankle pretty bad in opener. He could not comeback, and is doubtful for tonight. How bad did Petro play? The Sonics director of personel ripped his ass after the game, with coach Hill. He made Portland look awesome by forgetting how to defend, even a basic pick and roll. He is worse than Jerome James. And who is the big hope down low for the Sonics? Danny Fortson. I am not joking. But he too is a huge question mark. He had surgery on knee during summer, ballooned up like a Kemp, and is not even close to game shape. He played in a preseason game, took a cheap shot at Artest and got suspended for first game. Refs hate him, Stu Jackson, who he called a gangster hates him. He is a foul a minute. Even overpaid Collison (just got 4 yr 24 mil deal) got cracked in the face during practice. Plus the recent purchase by Oklahoma means they may be packing their bags, and front office, plus maybe Hill are gone. They are hurtin for certain. Not sure if Kobe goes or not. Not sure if I want him to, but he is gametime decision for now. Written and created by OF.


OF...:thumbup1
 
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

As long as you say you are not finished with today's analysis, I thought I would send out some input...I like New Jersey even with the
price down to + 3.5...Aside from the belief that Miami is overpriced right now and really hurting at point guard, there have been seven games scheduled prior to this one between teams who met in the playoffs last year...The team that lost has been the underdog each time, and has four
wins and six covers...I think the league made a conscious effort to
start the schedule this way, and the playoff memories are probably
fresher when you see the team that ended your season right away...
I also agree with the Bost / Det over, due to Detroit defensive issues
discussed yesterday...I concur with you about FS....I haven't seen your reasons on Utah vs Phoenix so it's hard to fully evaluate, but you have to
like the Jazz win the other night... They scored 104 on a
Houston team that rarely allows those kind of points, and got a huge
game from Carlos Boozer, who can give them the better frontcourt in
this matchup with a strong performance...Utah was extremely underpriced at + 1 at home vs Houston, so maybe + 6.5 (current line) is still good....Lakers over Sea also makes perfect sense.

Other possible plays: During pre season, Don Nelson complained to the media that his team was not in good enough physical condition to play the style he wants, even while his team was going 7-1...Well, they proved him right in their opener, giving up 110 at home to a Bryant-less Laker team playing back-to-back after a track meet with Phoenix...After the game, he trashed Mike Dunleavy for playing a worthless game, and criticized the way Baron Davis ran the offense....This type of public player bashing did Larry Brown no good in New York last season...So tonight they are 8.5 over Portland, which won at Seattle...The Portland win was probably helped by the fact that top draft pick Brandon Roy and coach Nate McMillan were returning to Seattle, but nevertheless, a win is a win...I didn't see the game, but afterwards, Rashard Lewis called Roy a great player, which you don't often hear about a rookie this early in the season...Jason Richardson also likely less than 100 percent after missing the entire pre season with a knee problem...I don't like the New York team at all, but maybe they are value at + 2.5 tonight, if Speedy Claxton is too out of synch from his injury...Again, I didn't see Atlanta so it's hard for me...NY players have early season motivation to prove that last year was more about Brown than them, and the 117 allowed last game in triple overtime is really 87 in regulation...Would have liked Milwaukee as an underdog, but the + 2 is now - 1...Not hot for favorites right now, but
might still be value only because Charlie Villanueva returning to Toronto for the first time off a big game at Det, and Chris Bosh clearly less than 100 percent with
a foot problem...Not a good sign early for Toronto that the draft's No. 1 pick from Europe, 7-0 Andrea Bargnani, can't beat out journeyman Rasho Nesterovic for a starting position for the opening game...If Bosh is not right, Milw might have the game's three best players in Redd, Villanueva, and Bogut...But maybe TJ Ford has extreme movitation with Villanueva off to the better start in the first game...And the three point move towards Milwaukee may mean that Toronto is the team that comes with the stronger urgency...
After the Chi vs Orl game, Ben Wallace said Orlando will likely lose very few home games this year because of Dwight Howard...If that's the case,
then they could easily be value at - 5.5 vs Philadelphia tonight...But again,
I didn't see either team's first game, so I am operating at a disadvantage,
and maybe Phila's 75 points allowed vs Atlanta deserves some respect...
On totals, New Orleans played 188 last year and Indiana played 186, and
yet the price is 196...NO won 91-87 at Boston, normally a high team, while Ind won 106-99 at Charlotte, but Bobcats like to run at home, and
Rick Carlisle's teams have always played on the low side...Minnesota played just 186 last year, and opened with a 175 game at home vs Sacramento, and yet has been priced at 199.5 at Denver, which played an easy under last night.

Before I go, at the risk of giving her additional undeserved attention,
I liked the Ann Coulter post yesterday.
 
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

So much to respond to in one sitting. Let me take this piece meal.

As long as you say you are not finished with today's analysis, I thought I would send out some input...I like New Jersey even with the
price down to + 3.5...Aside from the belief that Miami is overpriced right now and really hurting at point guard, there have been seven games scheduled prior to this one between teams who met in the playoffs last year...The team that lost has been the underdog each time, and has four
wins and six covers...I think the league made a conscious effort to
start the schedule this way, and the playoff memories are probably
fresher when you see the team that ended your season right away...
I also agree with the Bost / Det over, due to Detroit defensive issues
discussed yesterday...I concur with you about FS....I haven't seen your reasons on Utah vs Phoenix so it's hard to fully evaluate, but you have to
like the Jazz win the other night... They scored 104 on a
Houston team that rarely allows those kind of points, and got a huge
game from Carlos Boozer, who can give them the better frontcourt in
this matchup with a strong performance...Utah was extremely underpriced at + 1 at home vs Houston, so maybe + 6.5 (current line) is still good

I see +4 on the Nets still. Although I do look at last's year some, this is not last year's Heat by far. Another usual foil for the Heat are the Nets. Every year they bounce them out of the playoffs. However, just like the Bulls, the Nets are very strong and maybe deep in the guard slot, especially point. As far as continuing interest, the NBA Playoffs were some of the best in a long time, especially out West with Spurs/Mavs. We saw that one already. So there is some marketing involved, but you still have to get the ATS right. Dogs have been ruling, as lines are way off. Bulls smashed the crap out of Heat, no doubt about that. But then, they look like yesterday's hot sheet vs. Magic. I think the Heat were the main culprits, as they looked real ragged in preseason. They need to vastly improve in a very short time, as Nets dusted a decent Raptor squad no problem. No JWill, Heat awful home record last few years to start the season. As long as Heat keep facing playoff teams they will struggle.

I think I already wrote up and discussed reasons for Motown's defensive prowess collapse. Now they go on road. And Celts were wound up too tight to start game after Red ceremony. Motown was just a disaster defensively, it is hard to describe how bad. And that was at home. Where they normally can mug an opponent and not get a call. You can't give up high % looks all game long, unless you don't have the personel. I firmly believe Ben made every player on that team a better defender. I think Motown gets attacked a lot from here on out, but tonight will show more.

I should write up Utah sooner than later.


OF...
 

CrazyIvan

EOG Veteran
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

ok thanks froggie for your opinion.. i already played it a bit, guess i'll ride it out.
 

beaner1236

EOG Addicted
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

Froggy....which game do you feel most confident about tonight? thanks
 
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

Forget that, Kobe is a go, line is rocketing!!!

Keep Nets, if you don't have it, get it.

OF...:cheers
 
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

Nets now back at +4.5 -105. shoudl i grab this now or wait? thanks

Saw +4 1/2 ev at Pinny. Hard to say as been a lot of up and back moves. The Boston total alone reversed 3 times on heavy moves. Lakers now -6 210, but public might drive that late game up seeing ESPN will broadcast that over and over. I still like the Nets, line moves are what they are.


OF...:cool:
 

beaner1236

EOG Addicted
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

thanks im on it +4.5 +100

also jumped on Knicks +3 -109, any thoughts
 
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

If I was forced to take a spot in that game I would go under, then +3. But are the Knicks any better, or does Memphis just blow? I know ATL looked rough, but maybe Philly is playing D? Very tough to tell where these teams really are after last outing.


OF...:dancefool
 
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

OF, glad to see you posting...will be looking for the lounger, jacuzzi, cigar NBA totals.

:houra
 

Egg Yolk Soup

EOG Senior Member
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

What do you guys think of trail blazers +10. I know they're pretty bad but 10 points is pretty high.
 

Egg Yolk Soup

EOG Senior Member
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

Blazers are keeping up with them pretty well so far. You think GS will end up turning it on after half?
 
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

Anything is possible in the league. OF is the better person to ask.

IS
.YOU CAN SAY THAT AGAIN..TOUGH TASK YOUVE CHOSEN FROG...TRYING TO CAP THIS LEAGUE...PACERS LOSE OUTRIGHT AS BIG FAV...76ers,Kings and Jazz win straight up all over +210 or more
 

Egg Yolk Soup

EOG Senior Member
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

OF are you around? What do you think of these last halftimes? Blazers are hanging in there do you think it will continue? And what about the lakers game. Thanks.
 
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

Yesterday 2-2 -1.5 units. Had some tough luck but that's inherent in the profession. All the breaks that went bad in Celts ov and Nets came back with Lakers landing 6. I will update record and be back tomorrow as I am working Breeder's Cup only. No foots or hoops. Talk at you then. May all of your bets today cash.

OF...:+waving-5
 
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

OF, glad to see you posting...will be looking for the lounger, jacuzzi, cigar NBA totals.

:houra


There you are, missed you at roll call. Glad to see you make it Woof. Just a few more truants. But I will try to round them up. Good to see you, thanks for stoppin by.


OF...:cheers
 
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

OF are you around? What do you think of these last halftimes? Blazers are hanging in there do you think it will continue? And what about the lakers game. Thanks.

Normally I am checking in and rambling at halves but this opening week maybe 10 days I am glued to League pass. Sorry about the Blazers. I am not going to jump in the NBA waters without knowing where the submerged rocks are, or checking the water temp. The Laker game saved my bad day. But thanks for stoppin by, I will be much better in a week on 2H or gametime advice. The advice may suck but I should be around.


OF...:cheers
 
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

Anything is possible in the league. OF is the better person to ask.

IS

Shit, don't ask me. My coin flips were 50/50 yesterday. Good to see you spades. I hope to re-earn that respect. Just another NBA season. Thanks for stoppin by.


OF...:cheers
 
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

.YOU CAN SAY THAT AGAIN..TOUGH TASK YOUVE CHOSEN FROG...TRYING TO CAP THIS LEAGUE...PACERS LOSE OUTRIGHT AS BIG FAV...76ers,Kings and Jazz win straight up all over +210 or more

I know the upsets just continue. I was not on them, the overeaction on the Bucks, already seen that show before this season with Bulls. Plus, a lot of crap teams are winning outright. I promise you this, it will not continue. The numbers will find the places they should be soon. But right now, it is best to tiptoe through this minefield called the NBA. This is my 31st season, minus 4 years in the Navy. I somehow make it to the next one every year. It will settle down. I just have to figure out who is who, because the linesmakers sure don't know. Barely 1/50 done. We got a marathon in front, and FROGs hop real slow. No worries.

OF...:smokesmal
 
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

thanks for your work and guidance, great stuff in this thread

dogball, I remember that name from days long gone. Appreciate the kind words, but a bit early to start believing my own hype. The work is there, the guidance? I try not to get anyone killed. Makes for good reading, maybe even a bit of fun. But I try to keep the thread from being a phony dog and pony show, or a flamathon, or a pitch to buy my service. I have nothing to sell. That and people stoppin by make the thread great, nothing more. And on that note, thanks for stoppin by.


OF...:+waving-5
 
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

OF, win or lose, keep them going.
Much appreciated.

Trying to get through the chafe to find the wheat. I prefer winning over losing. Do I have a choice there? Yesterday the luck was on my side on the most important game of the night. As long as that continues I could not be more satisfied. You are quite welcome, thanks for stoppin by.

OF...:cheers
 

Lucky777

EOG Senior Member
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

NBA is my woest sport. Thanks for the winner$ Froggy.

:+music1-6
 

CrazyIvan

EOG Veteran
Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...

Yes i have the under thanks, but thats all the plays, do u have any urself? I assume not...
 
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