Re: FROG's NBA Regular season thread...
As long as you say you are not finished with today's analysis, I thought I would send out some input...I like New Jersey even with the
price down to + 3.5...Aside from the belief that Miami is overpriced right now and really hurting at point guard, there have been seven games scheduled prior to this one between teams who met in the playoffs last year...The team that lost has been the underdog each time, and has four
wins and six covers...I think the league made a conscious effort to
start the schedule this way, and the playoff memories are probably
fresher when you see the team that ended your season right away...
I also agree with the Bost / Det over, due to Detroit defensive issues
discussed yesterday...I concur with you about FS....I haven't seen your reasons on Utah vs Phoenix so it's hard to fully evaluate, but you have to
like the Jazz win the other night... They scored 104 on a
Houston team that rarely allows those kind of points, and got a huge
game from Carlos Boozer, who can give them the better frontcourt in
this matchup with a strong performance...Utah was extremely underpriced at + 1 at home vs Houston, so maybe + 6.5 (current line) is still good....Lakers over Sea also makes perfect sense.
Other possible plays: During pre season, Don Nelson complained to the media that his team was not in good enough physical condition to play the style he wants, even while his team was going 7-1...Well, they proved him right in their opener, giving up 110 at home to a Bryant-less Laker team playing back-to-back after a track meet with Phoenix...After the game, he trashed Mike Dunleavy for playing a worthless game, and criticized the way Baron Davis ran the offense....This type of public player bashing did Larry Brown no good in New York last season...So tonight they are 8.5 over Portland, which won at Seattle...The Portland win was probably helped by the fact that top draft pick Brandon Roy and coach Nate McMillan were returning to Seattle, but nevertheless, a win is a win...I didn't see the game, but afterwards, Rashard Lewis called Roy a great player, which you don't often hear about a rookie this early in the season...Jason Richardson also likely less than 100 percent after missing the entire pre season with a knee problem...I don't like the New York team at all, but maybe they are value at + 2.5 tonight, if Speedy Claxton is too out of synch from his injury...Again, I didn't see Atlanta so it's hard for me...NY players have early season motivation to prove that last year was more about Brown than them, and the 117 allowed last game in triple overtime is really 87 in regulation...Would have liked Milwaukee as an underdog, but the + 2 is now - 1...Not hot for favorites right now, but
might still be value only because Charlie Villanueva returning to Toronto for the first time off a big game at Det, and Chris Bosh clearly less than 100 percent with
a foot problem...Not a good sign early for Toronto that the draft's No. 1 pick from Europe, 7-0 Andrea Bargnani, can't beat out journeyman Rasho Nesterovic for a starting position for the opening game...If Bosh is not right, Milw might have the game's three best players in Redd, Villanueva, and Bogut...But maybe TJ Ford has extreme movitation with Villanueva off to the better start in the first game...And the three point move towards Milwaukee may mean that Toronto is the team that comes with the stronger urgency...
After the Chi vs Orl game, Ben Wallace said Orlando will likely lose very few home games this year because of Dwight Howard...If that's the case,
then they could easily be value at - 5.5 vs Philadelphia tonight...But again,
I didn't see either team's first game, so I am operating at a disadvantage,
and maybe Phila's 75 points allowed vs Atlanta deserves some respect...
On totals, New Orleans played 188 last year and Indiana played 186, and
yet the price is 196...NO won 91-87 at Boston, normally a high team, while Ind won 106-99 at Charlotte, but Bobcats like to run at home, and
Rick Carlisle's teams have always played on the low side...Minnesota played just 186 last year, and opened with a 175 game at home vs Sacramento, and yet has been priced at 199.5 at Denver, which played an easy under last night.
Before I go, at the risk of giving her additional undeserved attention,
I liked the Ann Coulter post yesterday.