Re: "If You Know It Show It" Week 10 Picks thread 11/2 - 11/6
Reload's Week 9 NFL "Triple Penetration" featuring my "Shoot Your Load" Game of the Week!
EOG "If You Know It, Show It" Writeup Contest Record: 12-12-2 (-0.44 units)
Reload's "Shoot Your Load" Game of the Week:
Washington Redskins plus 3 points against Dallas
(-101 Pinnacle: Get your 7% Horse Rebates at Pinnacle for the Breeders Cup this weekend!)
NFC "Loaded Dog" of the Week:
Detroit Lions plus 5 points against Atlanta
(-107 Pinnacle: Get your 7% Horse Rebates at Pinnacle for the Breeders Cup this weekend!)
AFC "Divisional Destruction" Game of the Week:
Cincinnati Bengals plus 3 points against Baltimore
(+104 Pinnacle: Get your 7% Horse Rebates at Pinnacle for the Breeders Cup this weekend!)
Last week, my "Double Load Shocker" Game of the Year was an easy winner as the Jacksonville Jaguars won outright against the Philadelphia Eagles as a big underdog! Although I have no "Game of the Year" excitement this week, I look to keep the winning going with the return of "Triple Penetration"! It's my top 3 selections for Week 9 of the NFL headlined by my "Shoot Your Load" Game of the Week play which has not lost all season! You get that one along with my NFC "Loaded Dog" of the Week and my AFC "Divisional Destruction" Game of the Week. Get your reloads in and go 3-0 on Sunday with "Triple Penetration"!
For my first play in this week's "Triple Penetration" package and my best bet in Week 9, I am taking the Washington Redskins plus 3 points against the Dallas Cowboys in my "Shoot Your Load" Game of the Week!
The Dallas Cowboys come into this game off of their big Sunday night win against the Carolina Panthers, and the public is all over Dallas in this one now as a road favorite because of it. But this is the NFC East we are talking about here and I see this game in Washington being a more difficult for spot for Dallas. Despite the Sunday night win, new Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo still has a lot to prove and going into Washington for a big divisional game will be a tougher scenario than last week. Cowboys fans are hoping for some deja vu here with Romo replacing Drew Bledsoe and that maybe it could lead to a big season like when Tom Brady replaced Bledsoe at quarterback for the Patriots years ago. But I cannot buy into that yet and I feel Dallas will lose this game in Washington. Let's not forget that Dallas was behind most of their game against Carolina and only pulled ahead in the 4th quarter. The Panthers also turned the ball over three times and I would expect the Cowboys to not get as lucky this week. Dallas will have to play better than they did in Carolina to get another win on the road and I do not see it happening here. Also remember that Dallas beat Washington already this year at home as a 7 point favorite back in Week 2, and the Redskins will be looking for payback. Like most NFL teams, road favorite trends do not favor the Cowboys as they have gone 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 games as a road favorite of 3 points or less. It also would be hard to duplicate another high scoring effort like last week as the Cowboys are 1-8 against the spread in their last 9 games that followed one where they scored over 30 points.
The Washington Redskins have been falling fast with three straight losses, but come into this game off of their bye week and should turn things around here against Dallas. Even though the Redskins have only won 1 out of 3 home games this year, their home field advantage has to help them a lot in this rematch with the Cowboys from Week 2. The spot especially helps them to be playing at home off of their bye week and the Cowboys playing on the road for a second straight week with a new starting quarterback. Although Dallas has had one of the top 5 rushing offenses in the NFL, the Redskins are not far behind in being ranked 7th in the NFL for rushing with an average of 128 yards on the ground per game. In their last two games, the Redskins had halftime leads blown but now get to face a team they are more familiar with and should improve at making adjustments throughout the game. Quarterback Mark Brunell of the Redskins still remains ranked in the top 10 of the NFL with a rating of 90.4, and above quarterbacks of winning teams such as Rex Grossman of the Bears and Eli Manning of the Giants. Brunell still remains underrated and has had better effort than both the statistics and results of the season have shown so far. Overall, I feel the Redskins have needed the right spot to win again and this week is it. I took the Redskins in their last home underdog spot when the played the Jacksonville Jaguars several weeks ago and they won outright cashing for my readers as my "Head-scalper Shocker" of the Week. This is now another home underdog spot for them and I see the same type of outright win happening for them.
The line favoring the Cowboys by 3 is too high, and overall I feel the wrong team has been favored here. I feel it is instead the Redskins who should have been favored by 3, and at the very least should not be getting points here. It is tough for me to picture the Cowboys going from being a 7 point favorite in their first matchup against Washington, being inconsistent since then, making a starting quarterback change, and now are still favored by 3 on the road in their rematch. The Redskins are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games as a home underdog of 3 points or less and 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games that followed a bye week. Despite the rough season they have had, this home underdog spot after a bye week is a very positive situation for Washington. The bye week also helps some of the higher profile Redskins players get over some documented injuries and this list includes Brunell, Clinton Portis, Santana Moss, Antwaan Randle El, and David Patten. In divisional matchups, I will also tend to lean toward the team going into it with a losing streak against opponents outside of the division because they will be a lot more up for the game and that fits the Redskins here. Add in that it's also a divisional revenge spot and those of you who followed my WNBA plays know, "Payback's The Bitch" in the NFL also. The final clincher in making this my "Shoot Your Load" Game of the Week was that all four of HBO's "Inside The NFL" panel have picked Dallas for this game - let's hope for the same result with that as last week when they all picked the Eagles and the Jaguars smoked them in my "Double Load Shocker" Game of the Year. Shoot your load on the Redskins and take the points here!
For the second play in my "Triple Penetration" package for this week, I am taking the Detroit Lions plus 5 points against the Atlanta Falcons as my NFC "Loaded Dog" of the Week!
The Atlanta Falcons have been the talk of the NFL with pulling out two big wins in the last two weeks, but this week it is a trap spot for them against the Detroit Lions in the Silverdome. Some people out there might figure Michael Vick and the Falcons are use to playing in a dome so the conditions in Detroit may not matter a whole lot. But they will be facing an underrated and undervalued opponent in the Lions. The issue I continue to have with the Falcons is how one dimensional they are with Michael Vick's scrambling and having the best rushing offense in the NFL. Overall, not having more of a variety to defeat opponents with will hurt them and I feel this will come up against the Lions. On defense, the Falcons are still below average and have given up an average of 234 yards against the pass per game, and an even worse 280 yards per game through the air on average of their last three games. All of this tells me that it is difficult to make them favored on the road against anyone and that they can lose on any given Sunday.
The Detroit Lions remain one of the least favorite teams of bettors out there, but finally got their first win of the season in their last home game. In fact, Detroit's only two covers of the season have come out of their three games at home. In both of the covers, Detroit was a home underdog and this looks like another promising spot to take them getting points. Did you know that despite their 1-7 record, the Detroit Lions have one of the top 5 passing offenses in the NFL? Yes, they are ranked number 5 in the league and have put up an average of 247 yards through the air in each game. Given this, I feel they will have what it takes to penetrate the weak Falcons pass defense and keep this game close. On defense, Detroit has held their own against the run and I think will challenge the Falcons more on the ground then they have been in the past couple of weeks. In their last home game, the Lions held Willis McGahee of the Bills to only 66 yards of rushing and back in Week 1 held Shawn Alexander of the Seahawks to a disappointing 51 yards. James Hall of the Lions also has 5 sacks already this season and the defensive line of the Lions could give the Falcons offense a tough time all day in this one.
The line favoring the Falcons by 5 points is too high and I thought it should have really been less than 3 points. I obviously figured the Falcons would be favored in this game because they always get a lot of action once they start appearing hot, and the Lions always seem so unappealing to take. But it's an inflated pointspread with the only question being by how much. Overall, I feel the Falcons will get another close victory as they did in the past two weeks and it will be by only 1 or 2 points. But the chances are even there for an outright Lions upset - remember how the Falcons got whipped when visiting the Saints in another dome. And in general, the 5-6 point range of underdog has always been one of my favorite amount of points to take because it traps the public so much. They think a game will never fall on 5 and also want to get in on the favorite before it goes up to 7 points. So it seems like they get a great deal but they begin forgetting that giving 5 points means you are also giving 4.5, 4, 3.5, and 3. This one certainly takes some courage to bet, but the Lions are the way to go here. Take the points with Detroit!
My final game for Sunday's "Triple Penetration" is my AFC "Divisional Destruction" Game of the Week and I am taking the Cincinnati Bengals plus 3 points against the Baltimore Ravens.
The Baltimore Ravens come into this one off a big road win against the Saints and suddenly the "Just Don't Lose" offense put some big points on the board. But it will be a tougher battle this week as they face the Cincinatti Bengals in this big divisional matchup. I am still not sold on the Ravens offense even with the big showing last week. More often then not, Steve McNair and the Baltimore offense tend to do "too little, too late" and I would expect a divisional game like this to have them behind in the 4th quarter needing some type of game winning drive to pull it out. Overall, the Ravens offense still ranks among the NFL's lowest with an average of only 274 yards per game. Defense is still the Ravens strongpoint, but even there, opponents have found ways lately to get more yards through the air on them. Baltimore now ranks only 16th in the league for pass defense giving up an average of 207 yards per game, and an even worse 277 yard average per game in their last three games. The Ravens are also only 1-4 against the spread in the last 5 games that followed one where they gave up more than 250 yards through the air.
The Cincinnati Bengals have been making bettors jump off their bandwagon lately as they have now not covered in 4 straight games after starting out the season on fire with three straight covers. But I feel one issue with that was they started becoming overvalued and were laying points in their last four games. Now they are back to getting points and it's a sizeable 3 points which may come in very handy down the stretch against Baltimore. The Bengals still have a solid passing offense and have put up an average of 247 yards through the air in their last three games which equals the Ravens -total- offense average per game. Carlson Palmer remains one of the league's top quarterbacks with a passer rating of 93.4 despite facing some tough defenses. Speaking of defense, it has remained a concern with the Bengals but they have only given up an average of 20 points a game which puts them 12th in the NFL. And did anyone know that Justin Smith of the Bengals has more sacks this season at 6.5 than anyone on the Ravens? In the end, it does not take much defense to stop the Ravens offense but the Bengals should have an easier time stopping Baltimore than Michael Vick and the Falcons last week. Playing on the road should also not be a problem for the Bengals as they are 7-1 against the spread in their last 8 road games against teams with winning home records.
The line favoring Baltimore by 3 points seems typical for a big divisional matchup but I think the performance of both teams last week is factoring too much into this. Overall, I can see Cincinnati winning this game straight up by 1 or 2 points and return to the form they had on the road to start the season with their wins in Kansas City and Pittsburgh. The Ravens have not performed well after wins this season as they went on to not cover against the spread in the game following their last two wins. I see that happening again this week and they will come up short against the Bengals. Take Cincinnati plus the points!
Final thoughts on Week 9:
Taking three underdogs in any week involves courage but have no fear! The dogs are barking again in the NFL and this week should be no exception. As with last week, I am hoping to cash in again thanks to situational handicapping and public perception. Last week, no one gave the Jacksonville Jaguars a chance in Philadephia but I emphatically took them as my "Double Load Shocker" Game of the Year despite their quarterback switch made mid-week and other issues. The whole panel of HBO's Inside the NFL got it wrong but my readers cashed! And you can keep cashing right here on EOG - not only with the NFL, but with the NBA starting this week as well as the Breeders Cup this weekend! My NBA season got off to a great start as my "Black Clover" Game of the Year cashed on Wednesday with the New Orleans Hornets easily winning outright against the Celtics. Who says you can't have a Game of the Year as your first play of the season and start off winning big? No matter what, remember what I always say - "Win if you can, lose if you must, but always reload"! So get those reloads in and load up on all the action!
