He did save a lot of ground with the entire trip on the rail.
Who wins the Preakness?
- Thread starter Viejo Dinosaur
- Start date
He did save a lot of ground with the entire trip on the rail.
If my speculation is correct, the batch bettors (aka the syndicates) established their intent early in the betting cycle.
Can you believe Fenwick was 7/1 early in the morning and Epicenter was 2/1?
Unlike TRY3, I believe there was more than just the "Rich Strike effect" taking place.
If a betting group thought Epicenter could not win the race, then they were betting other horses in the race for various amounts.
I'm not suggesting nefarious action, but this is how the big syndicates bet against a favorite.
Speculating further, and this is dangerous, Rosario's ride on Epicenter never gave the horse a chance to win.
Good point.
But trouble at the start, back of the pack into a slow pace, "buried" (Asmussen's word") on the inside and then dramatically switched outside in deep stretch when Early Voting clearly had the race won.
He was buried, not good in a 9 horse field, owners can't be happy.
Wonder if we see a rider change in the future?
And that's Rosario's plausible defense.
Not complaining though- had a $15 Tri Box- 2,5,8, although that was my only winner.
trytrytry
All I do is trytrytry
source horseracing nation about why fenwick was so low
somebody posted this theory. imo its total BS and does not make math sense either but interesting at the same time.
It is also hunting grounds for large whales who bet large amounts to prey on the public. They already have lots of winnings as income this year and are looking for losses for deductions...they will strike early when the money in these wagering pools is low and there is what is known as "slippage" (where the odds can be pushed up or down very easily). They target a longshot or two and move the odds with (for them) a relatively modest bet hoping the public chases the odds down with them under a FOMO mind-set. Then, this pushes up the WPS odds in that pool on the legit 5 or so contenders and the whales then slowly build up wagers on them as to not move the odds at once...meanwhile the public is chasing a falling knife in the longshot thinking they are on to something...post 80-1 Derby winner. You saw horses like EV and Simplification sitting much higher than they ordinarily would have in this field. Even Epicenter and the filly until post.
At the end of the day they have a tax write off on the money they threw down on the longshot (remember, loss deductions are limited by wins) and a bigger payout on the legit horses and the public is left holding the bag on a horse like Fenwick who should have been at his M/L odds. BTW, this is how whales move the futures market all the time with naive newbies chasing things up at inflated prices initiated by a whale and then left holding the bag when it crashes. I am not saying it happened here. But it could have.
somebody posted this theory. imo its total BS and does not make math sense either but interesting at the same time.
It is also hunting grounds for large whales who bet large amounts to prey on the public. They already have lots of winnings as income this year and are looking for losses for deductions...they will strike early when the money in these wagering pools is low and there is what is known as "slippage" (where the odds can be pushed up or down very easily). They target a longshot or two and move the odds with (for them) a relatively modest bet hoping the public chases the odds down with them under a FOMO mind-set. Then, this pushes up the WPS odds in that pool on the legit 5 or so contenders and the whales then slowly build up wagers on them as to not move the odds at once...meanwhile the public is chasing a falling knife in the longshot thinking they are on to something...post 80-1 Derby winner. You saw horses like EV and Simplification sitting much higher than they ordinarily would have in this field. Even Epicenter and the filly until post.
At the end of the day they have a tax write off on the money they threw down on the longshot (remember, loss deductions are limited by wins) and a bigger payout on the legit horses and the public is left holding the bag on a horse like Fenwick who should have been at his M/L odds. BTW, this is how whales move the futures market all the time with naive newbies chasing things up at inflated prices initiated by a whale and then left holding the bag when it crashes. I am not saying it happened here. But it could have.
Thanks for sharing, Try3.
Like you, I'm not buying the far-fetched theory.
At least with my theory of a betting group taking a stand against Epicenter (with or without a helping hand from jockey Joel Rosario), we see this type of pool manipulation on a much smaller scale at racetracks across the country every racing day.
The most successful betting syndicates essentially set the odds.
In the case of the Preakness Stakes, a total of $10 million was wagered in the win pool with 30 minutes to post.
The rank longshot Fenwick was only 9/1 from the first $10 million in the pot and Epicenter was 9/5.
Over the next 30 minutes, Fenwick drifted from 9/1 to 13/1 as another $4 million arrived in the win pool.
Epicenter's odds crashed from 9/5 to 6/5 as he took the lion's share of the late money.
Who played Epicenter?
Value seekers liking the price and possibly other syndicates who felt the fair value odds on Epicenter hovered around even-money.
My point is: The funky-looking odds board early in the wagering cycle is nothing new to the game.
But with a race like the Preakness, where the win pool is astronomical, depressed odds on horses with little or no chance to win are a potential sign that some big-money group is betting against the heavy favorite.
What's more, I don't think it was a coincidence that the three biggest prices in the program all had identical odds (9/1) with 30 minutes to post until the Preakness.
I assume the betting group assigned the same percentage figure and thus the same bet amount to all three horses.
All speculation, of course.
Like you, I'm not buying the far-fetched theory.
At least with my theory of a betting group taking a stand against Epicenter (with or without a helping hand from jockey Joel Rosario), we see this type of pool manipulation on a much smaller scale at racetracks across the country every racing day.
The most successful betting syndicates essentially set the odds.
In the case of the Preakness Stakes, a total of $10 million was wagered in the win pool with 30 minutes to post.
The rank longshot Fenwick was only 9/1 from the first $10 million in the pot and Epicenter was 9/5.
Over the next 30 minutes, Fenwick drifted from 9/1 to 13/1 as another $4 million arrived in the win pool.
Epicenter's odds crashed from 9/5 to 6/5 as he took the lion's share of the late money.
Who played Epicenter?
Value seekers liking the price and possibly other syndicates who felt the fair value odds on Epicenter hovered around even-money.
My point is: The funky-looking odds board early in the wagering cycle is nothing new to the game.
But with a race like the Preakness, where the win pool is astronomical, depressed odds on horses with little or no chance to win are a potential sign that some big-money group is betting against the heavy favorite.
What's more, I don't think it was a coincidence that the three biggest prices in the program all had identical odds (9/1) with 30 minutes to post until the Preakness.
I assume the betting group assigned the same percentage figure and thus the same bet amount to all three horses.
All speculation, of course.
I thought trainers were always trying to overcome various "breathing obstructions". I guess not all.
www.espn.com
Horse trainer charged in domestic violence case
A prominent New York-based horse trainer whose Early Voting won this year's Preakness Stakes is facing a domestic violence charge for allegedly pushing a woman down a flight of stairs and trying to choke her.
www.espn.com
Neveragain
EOG Dedicated
Looking guilty af.
Neveragain
EOG Dedicated
The alleged victim is an exercise rider who had previously been romantically involved with the accused.
The charges specifically refer to “obstruction of breathing”.
I presume after throwing her down the stairs he wanted to convey a much stronger message of his discontent.
The accused is divorced and he has two children.
The charges specifically refer to “obstruction of breathing”.
I presume after throwing her down the stairs he wanted to convey a much stronger message of his discontent.
The accused is divorced and he has two children.
blueline
EOG Master
From KATU :
According to the court documents, Brown pushed a female acquaintance down a flight of stairs and started to choke her. The victim said she had let herself into the home with a key and found him in bed with another woman, according to court paperwork.
She claims after pushing him off, she was pushed out the door. That's when, according to her statement on court documents, she went to police.
According to the court documents, Brown pushed a female acquaintance down a flight of stairs and started to choke her. The victim said she had let herself into the home with a key and found him in bed with another woman, according to court paperwork.
She claims after pushing him off, she was pushed out the door. That's when, according to her statement on court documents, she went to police.
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Neveragain
EOG Dedicated
Just guessing about 5’8” 150 lbs.
blueline
EOG Master
TDN :
According to the website of attorney Andrew DeLuca, “New York state defines the crime of obstruction of breathing as the intent to impede the normal breathing or circulation of the blood by applying pressure to the throat or neck or blocking the nose or mouth of another person. These charges usually result from domestic incidents between couples.”
Criminal obstruction of breathing is class A misdemeanor. Upon conviction of a class A misdemeanor, a court may sentence an individual to a maximum of one year in jail or three years probation.
According to a handwritten statement from the alleged victim, who was not named, an encounter with Brown turned violent after she entered his house and found him in bed with another female. The statement reads: “On August 17, 2022 at around 11 pm, I went to the house of Chad Brown, my on again off again significant other. I have a key to the house, so I let myself in. I went to his room and saw another female in bed with him. I confronted him on that and he got up and pushed me down some stairs. I fought him down the hallway and he pinned me to the floor and started choking me. He applied pressure to my neck while it was against the floor. I was able to push him off of me and get up. Chad then pushed me out the door and I left and came to the police station.”
Brown was handcuffed while in court and was wearing cargo shorts and a black Pink Floyd t-shirt. According to reporting from Subrina Dhammi of WNYT television, Brown's attorney, Joseph Gerstenzang, told the court that Brown was left with no option but to defend himself after the woman broke into his house. On Twitter, Dhammi wrote that the judge, Francine Vero, did not believe the claims made by Brown's attorney. “This court is not in the business of accusing domestic violence victims,” said the judge, according to Dhammi's report.
According to the website of attorney Andrew DeLuca, “New York state defines the crime of obstruction of breathing as the intent to impede the normal breathing or circulation of the blood by applying pressure to the throat or neck or blocking the nose or mouth of another person. These charges usually result from domestic incidents between couples.”
Criminal obstruction of breathing is class A misdemeanor. Upon conviction of a class A misdemeanor, a court may sentence an individual to a maximum of one year in jail or three years probation.
According to a handwritten statement from the alleged victim, who was not named, an encounter with Brown turned violent after she entered his house and found him in bed with another female. The statement reads: “On August 17, 2022 at around 11 pm, I went to the house of Chad Brown, my on again off again significant other. I have a key to the house, so I let myself in. I went to his room and saw another female in bed with him. I confronted him on that and he got up and pushed me down some stairs. I fought him down the hallway and he pinned me to the floor and started choking me. He applied pressure to my neck while it was against the floor. I was able to push him off of me and get up. Chad then pushed me out the door and I left and came to the police station.”
Brown was handcuffed while in court and was wearing cargo shorts and a black Pink Floyd t-shirt. According to reporting from Subrina Dhammi of WNYT television, Brown's attorney, Joseph Gerstenzang, told the court that Brown was left with no option but to defend himself after the woman broke into his house. On Twitter, Dhammi wrote that the judge, Francine Vero, did not believe the claims made by Brown's attorney. “This court is not in the business of accusing domestic violence victims,” said the judge, according to Dhammi's report.
Chad Brown needed a locksmith.
Yikes!
Yikes!
I think Chad Brown liked to choke his accuser when they were on good terms, if you know what I mean.
blueline
EOG Master
They bought TVG some years ago