Viejo Dinosaur
EOG Master
The favorite might be less than 5/2….
Who wins the Preakness?
- Thread starter Viejo Dinosaur
- Start date
trytrytry
All I do is trytrytry
epicenter will be 4/5 or even money at post time my early thoughts are this
bounce is possible he was all to hold off that monster most of the Zandon the entire stretch after being in top 7 yearly with that pace. he might pull an Afleet alex and win by 7 or be off the board with a bounce. I would not have him 2nd or 3rd in my exotics, use him (or anti him) both ways.
still sorting things out.
bounce is possible he was all to hold off that monster most of the Zandon the entire stretch after being in top 7 yearly with that pace. he might pull an Afleet alex and win by 7 or be off the board with a bounce. I would not have him 2nd or 3rd in my exotics, use him (or anti him) both ways.
still sorting things out.
I feel for those who bet an Epicenter-Zandon exacta box in the Kentucky Derby.
They deserved better.
When watching the replay of the stretch run, I'm still amazed at the winner's journey.
Like most horse races, the stretch drive of the Kentucky Derby was an optical illusion.
Rich Strike wasn't necessarily accelerating, but he was decelerating at a slower rate than the others torched by the torrid pace.
Shades of Mine That Bird in 2009.
And it was that year in which a filly, the brilliant Rachel Alexandra, won the Preakness.
Hmmm...
Nah, I'm not a believer in omens.
Pass on Secret Oath, the Lukas filly.
She's too slow.
Epicenter is the class of the crop and he will prove it this Saturday.
Remember, they run the Preakness to correct the sometimes-goofy order of finish in the Derby.
And VALUIST, in the end, was right about Derby hero Rich Strike.
He has no chance to win the Preakness.
They deserved better.
When watching the replay of the stretch run, I'm still amazed at the winner's journey.
Like most horse races, the stretch drive of the Kentucky Derby was an optical illusion.
Rich Strike wasn't necessarily accelerating, but he was decelerating at a slower rate than the others torched by the torrid pace.
Shades of Mine That Bird in 2009.
And it was that year in which a filly, the brilliant Rachel Alexandra, won the Preakness.
Hmmm...
Nah, I'm not a believer in omens.
Pass on Secret Oath, the Lukas filly.
She's too slow.
Epicenter is the class of the crop and he will prove it this Saturday.
Remember, they run the Preakness to correct the sometimes-goofy order of finish in the Derby.
And VALUIST, in the end, was right about Derby hero Rich Strike.
He has no chance to win the Preakness.
Last edited:
Give me Rich Strike to win the Preakness.
On Friday, thirty seconds before Pimlico officials close the field, Rich Strike's connections have an epiphany, change their minds, and decide to enter him in an effort to win the Triple Crown.
On Saturday, five minutes before the horses come onto the track for the race, Eric Reed shows Rich Strike posts from Skinny and Valuist which attack the horse's worth.
Rich Strike, who is unstable to begin with, goes totally ballistic. He repeats his Derby performance by running down the leaders in the stretch.....going eyeball to eyeball (Seabiscuit-style) with Epicenter.....bites him on the ass.....and goes onto to win by a length and a half.
On Friday, thirty seconds before Pimlico officials close the field, Rich Strike's connections have an epiphany, change their minds, and decide to enter him in an effort to win the Triple Crown.
On Saturday, five minutes before the horses come onto the track for the race, Eric Reed shows Rich Strike posts from Skinny and Valuist which attack the horse's worth.
Rich Strike, who is unstable to begin with, goes totally ballistic. He repeats his Derby performance by running down the leaders in the stretch.....going eyeball to eyeball (Seabiscuit-style) with Epicenter.....bites him on the ass.....and goes onto to win by a length and a half.
blueline
EOG Master
I don't feel sorry for anyone with that exacta.....they got it wrong.
according to Trackus this is how fast RichStrike was moving at 1/4 mile intervals from start to finish :
39.2 mph
38.8
36.8
35.9
37.7
the next fastest in his race was 36.6 for the final 1/4 mile...I think only 3 other horses were moving at over 36 over that interval
Rich Strike was a deserving winner.
Last edited:
fifty cint
EOG Dedicated
Not a lot of buzz here to say the least
Good humor, OUCH.
Understood.
And it's not like Rich Strike won by a nose.
The chart shows him winning by three-quarters of a length.
Epicenter was three-quarters clear of Zandon and Zandon was a full two lengths clear of fourth-place finisher Simplification.
If Ethereal Road doesn't scratch at the 11th hour on Friday, the Epicenter-Zandon supporters would have cashed an exacta.
blueline
EOG Master
If those exacta players want to blame Lukas that works for me.
From the press conference Reed said he got a call...maybe 20 mins dont remember....before the deadline saying they weren't getting in.....minuets later another call saying they were in.....was that close.
Back to trakus....interesting to look at a few of the past derby winners final intervals....diifferent days etc I know but still.....
From the press conference Reed said he got a call...maybe 20 mins dont remember....before the deadline saying they weren't getting in.....minuets later another call saying they were in.....was that close.
Back to trakus....interesting to look at a few of the past derby winners final intervals....diifferent days etc I know but still.....
Rich Dawson, the owner of Rich Strike, had a funny line after the race.
He said, "Hell, I've never won an allowance race before."
He said, "Hell, I've never won an allowance race before."
How big are the win pools for the Kentucky Derby?
More than a half-million dollars ($501,135, to be exact) was wagered on Rich Strike to win.
More than a half-million dollars ($501,135, to be exact) was wagered on Rich Strike to win.
I see Epicenter at +115 at some offshore outs.
Paging Andy Serling...
blueline
EOG Master
Don't bother
Mo Donegal and Early Voting finished 1-2 in this year's Wood Memorial.
Watching the replay now...
Watching the replay now...
BLUE, do you ever watch "Talking Horses" with Serling and Anthony Stabile.
Informative and entertaining, in my opinion.
And Andy is a hawk when it comes to analyzing the times and the track.
Stabile, not so much.
His strength is backstretch gossip (don't trust it) and historical references on racing in New York.
Informative and entertaining, in my opinion.
And Andy is a hawk when it comes to analyzing the times and the track.
Stabile, not so much.
His strength is backstretch gossip (don't trust it) and historical references on racing in New York.
Anthony Stabile is also the biggest Tom Durkin fan out there, so he gets high marks for good taste.
It would be smart if a sports book took the lead and offered daily horse racing matchups with legitimate splits.
I can even swallow a 30-cent straddle (-115/-115) if a sports book would offer a consistent menu with legitimate limits.
There are a lot of sports betting newbies out there who might take a bite with head-to-head matchups.
Last edited:
Race-within-the-race handicapping is completely different than classic handicapping methods.
I rarely play a horse that needs to come from behind in the matchup.
I want the lead -- not the lead in the race but the lead in the matchup -- and I want to put the burden of proof on the other horse to get even and go by.
If both horses are jumping up and down in the stretch going nowhere, at least I've got the one in front of the other.
Been involved in some tight photos for 15th and 16th place in the Kentucky Derby.
That's a miserable feeling.
blueline
EOG Master
Monmouth Park May Offer Fixed Odds For Simulcast Races This Month
The Monmouth Park, BetMakers fixed odds partnership enjoyed a successful debut; Rich Strike not running in Preakness Stakes.
www.playnj.com
Heres article talking about how fixed odds wagering went at MTH....you can move it to an appropriate thread.
One other tricky component of head-to-head matchups in horse racing: Though the toteboard is efficient with favorites winning more races than second choices and second choices winning more races than third choices and so on, the running styles are important to analyze.
The 6-1 frontunner is more likely to win than the 10-1 mid-pack runner, but the mid-pack runner may be more likely to hit the board than the pace-dependent speedster.
Of course, the house is also aware of this situation, so they often pair horses in matchups with similar running styles.
The 6-1 frontunner is more likely to win than the 10-1 mid-pack runner, but the mid-pack runner may be more likely to hit the board than the pace-dependent speedster.
Of course, the house is also aware of this situation, so they often pair horses in matchups with similar running styles.
Last edited:
Murphy’s Best
EOG Dedicated
Speaking of horse racing I must say the Circa Sports Book does not take action on it & it is a good thing. Much cleaner & nicer place… just saying
Horse racing, presented properly, is a beautiful thing, even the simulcast experience.
And Circa is gorgeous.
Unfortunately, the racetracks have not reinvested in their live product and/or simulcast presentations, so you get run-down facilities with outdated television sets showing races with no volume.
Miserable.
And Circa is gorgeous.
Unfortunately, the racetracks have not reinvested in their live product and/or simulcast presentations, so you get run-down facilities with outdated television sets showing races with no volume.
Miserable.
Heim
EOG Master
It was mine too. A full cup of coffee and a full bankroll.
By 4:45 pm you're looking for a comp because you don't
have enough money to buy a hot dog.
Heim
EOG Master
I liked the IP too.
Mirage was great also when Jimmy was there. Lee Weaver the race manager really
took care of her high end players. Then when Wynn sold, everything stopped.
Remember the small group of dog racing bettors that called Imperial Palace home?
It was a motley crew.
blueline
EOG Master
They sat in a booth that was roped off when they werent there.
Last edited:
I recall seeing Cokin with Lee Pete on a radio show remote called "The Laydown Lowdown" from the Imperial Palace.
The show would later move to the Riviera and then the Frontier.
As an aside: I distinctly remember seeing a young UNLV baseball player named Matt Williams interviewed by the master storyteller, Lee Pete.
Lee could really shoot the breeze, but not even he could make Matt Williams sound interesting.
Williams had no personality as a young college player.
And 25 years later, he had no personality as a hardened MLB manager.
Never connected with guy.
Not that he wanted to connect with me, haha.
But I always viewed Matt Williams as a "hard ass."
Funny what you remember.
Last edited: