Date Bet-Size ML Result
March 20: 200 LAD -200 W
March 28: 117 Atl -117 PPD, 93 Phi +107 PPD, 220 AZ -220 W, 145 Hou -145 L, 110, Minn -110 W, 115 TEX -115 W, 181 BAL -181 W
March 29: 125 Atl -125 W, 87 Phi +115 L, 319 Hou -130 L
March 30: 152 Phi +123 L, 733 Hou -130 L
March 31: 282 Phi +120 W, 1581 Hou -122 L
Teams that have won (w/ # losses): LAD(0), AZ(0), TEX(0), BAL(0), Minn(0), ATL(0), Phi(2)
Hou lost 4 in a row, so the system loses -$2771 and only wins $700. Net -$2071. Total Amt bet $ 4250.
Shows that chases with small favs (that fail) will lose less than large favorites (that fail). However, it's also much more likely that a series like the Astros will lose 4 in a row.
All of the out-of-sample data put together: W/L 145-7, net -9.03u (556.80u total risked since 2010), ROI = -1.62%.
This is the statistically significant result of the system up to and including the 2024 season.
Will look forward to next year!
March 20: 200 LAD -200 W
March 28: 117 Atl -117 PPD, 93 Phi +107 PPD, 220 AZ -220 W, 145 Hou -145 L, 110, Minn -110 W, 115 TEX -115 W, 181 BAL -181 W
March 29: 125 Atl -125 W, 87 Phi +115 L, 319 Hou -130 L
March 30: 152 Phi +123 L, 733 Hou -130 L
March 31: 282 Phi +120 W, 1581 Hou -122 L
Teams that have won (w/ # losses): LAD(0), AZ(0), TEX(0), BAL(0), Minn(0), ATL(0), Phi(2)
Hou lost 4 in a row, so the system loses -$2771 and only wins $700. Net -$2071. Total Amt bet $ 4250.
Shows that chases with small favs (that fail) will lose less than large favorites (that fail). However, it's also much more likely that a series like the Astros will lose 4 in a row.
All of the out-of-sample data put together: W/L 145-7, net -9.03u (556.80u total risked since 2010), ROI = -1.62%.
This is the statistically significant result of the system up to and including the 2024 season.
Will look forward to next year!
