"Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe"

[X-Files]

"Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe"

Widely circulating coronavirus variants and persistent hesitancy about vaccines will keep the goal out of reach. The virus is here to stay, but vaccinating the most vulnerable may be enough to restore normalcy.

....Instead, they are coming to the conclusion that rather than making a long-promised exit, the virus will most likely become a manageable threat that will continue to circulate in the United States for years to come, still causing hospitalizations and deaths but in much smaller numbers.

How much smaller is uncertain and depends in part on how much of the nation, and the world, becomes vaccinated and how the coronavirus evolves. It is already clear, however, that the virus is changing too quickly, new variants are spreading too easily and vaccination is proceeding too slowly for herd immunity to be within reach anytime soon.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/03/health/covid-herd-immunity-vaccine.html

 

[FairWarning]

I think San Fran may achieve it. It’s not nearly enough.

 

[mr merlin]

Another fake article from the NY times, herd immunity is an inevitable outcome even if a vaccine never came. if perhaps 65% of adults get the vaccine and if at least 35-45% of americans have already had covid and are therefore immune, even with overlap between them that's prob close enough. If it's not close enough that means it'll still come naturally over time.

 

[X-Files]

Another fake article from the NY times, herd immunity is an inevitable outcome even if a vaccine never came. if perhaps 65% of adults get the vaccine and if at least 35-45% of americans have already had covid and are therefore immune, even with overlap between them that's prob close enough. If it's not close enough that means it'll still come naturally over time.

I wouldn't say the whole article is fake, though there may be some confusion about the term "herd immunity". How do you define it?

Don't be confused by the catchy titles designed to catch attention, not convey exact truths, that many news stories have. You often have to dig deeper & actually read beyond the title, & read the article, to see what it's really about & really saying. It states:

"Instead, they are coming to the conclusion that rather than making a long-promised exit, the virus will most likely become a manageable threat that will continue to circulate in the United States for years to come, still causing hospitalizations and deaths but in much smaller numbers.

"How much smaller is uncertain and depends in part on how much of the nation, and the world, becomes vaccinated and how the coronavirus evolves. It is already clear, however, that the virus is changing too quickly, new variants are spreading too easily and vaccination is proceeding too slowly for herd immunity to be within reach anytime soon."

 

[mr merlin]

I wouldn't say the whole article is fake, though there may be some confusion about the term "herd immunity". How do you define it?

Don't be confused by the catchy titles designed to catch attention, not convey exact truths, that many news stories have. You often have to dig deeper & actually read beyond the title, & read the article, to see what it's really about & really saying. It states:

"Instead, they are coming to the conclusion that rather than making a long-promised exit, the virus will most likely become a manageable threat that will continue to circulate in the United States for years to come, still causing hospitalizations and deaths but in much smaller numbers.

"How much smaller is uncertain and depends in part on how much of the nation, and the world, becomes vaccinated and how the coronavirus evolves. It is already clear, however, that the virus is changing too quickly, new variants are spreading too easily and vaccination is proceeding too slowly for herd immunity to be within reach anytime soon."

Herd immunity has always meant immunity either through natural infection of vaccines, only late last year did the CDC deliberately remove natural immunity from that definition - which is obviously due to corruption.

Notice how we never hear any talk or estimates of how many americans have been infected? they do keep that and report it - here it is. however even this is put out dishonestly as the numbers have changed over time -for instance last fall they had an estimate through say oct 31 - on the next estimate they always lower the previous benchmark.

many other epidemiologists estimate the true number is more like 150 million.

 

[mr merlin]

here is the estimate of infection through dec 2020. So I'm not sure if the 114.6 million in the latest estimate is though march or if it's the earlier data?

 

[X-Files]

Herd immunity has always meant immunity either through natural infection of vaccines,

There already is a degree of covid19 "immunity either through natural infection of vaccines", yet who is claiming "herd immunity" is here now? No one.

Pre 2020 the annual "flu season" just kept coming back, year after year, decade after decade. In those years did we ever achieve "herd immunity" against it?

The flu virus has been circulating year round for decades, with peak months annually in the USA & Canada. Could the future of covid19 be like that, or even be at relatively high levels (vs past flu decades) all year long for decades to come, inflicting far worse damage than the flu normally does in a year? Would that be what you call "herd immunity"?

-----------------------------

https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/news/20210225/what-happened-to-flu-season

"While influenza viruses circulate year-round, most of the time flu activity peaks between December and February, but activity can last as late as May. The overall health impact (e.g., infections, hospitalizations, and deaths) of a flu season varies from season to season."

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season.htm#:~:text=While influenza viruses circulate year,varies from season to season.
https://www.google.com/search?q=flu...rome..69i57.5835j0j1&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

 

[mr merlin]

CBS news said tonight that herd immunity has come to san franscisco, I dont know if it's true or not but it's amusing they chose the most leftist area of the country, they could have picked any of hundreds of counties in red states with zero cases...but they didn't.

You're right about seasonality, covid is seasonal, if it goes like last year cases will crash in the north starting now and rise in the south as we move into the hot humid weather when presumably everyone goes inside.

If that happens will the experts say "yea it's seasonal, this is expected" or will they blame it on mitigation or lack of vaccinations? I think we know the answer to that.

 

[X-Files]

This says SF's numbers were already low before being vaccinated, probably mostly due to extreme safety measures like lockdowns, masks & social distancing:

"San Francisco had the advantage of ramping up its vaccination campaign while cases, hospitalizations and daily deaths were already relatively low, which most likely accounts for much of the city’s success so far. This past winter, when much of the country was battling a devastating surge, San Francisco’s cases peaked on Jan. 4 with 560 reported infections. By comparison, Los Angeles recorded its peak on Dec. 26, with more than 29,000 new cases."

https://news.yahoo.com/herd-immunity-u-san-francisco-101403071.html

 

[X-Files]

You're right about seasonality, covid is seasonal, if it goes like last year cases will crash in the north starting now and rise in the south as we move into the hot humid weather when presumably everyone goes inside.

If that happens will the experts say "yea it's seasonal, this is expected" or will they blame it on mitigation or lack of vaccinations? I think we know the answer to that.

Since months ago, or even last year, a number of sources have been saying covid19 is seasonal:

https://www.google.com/search?q=covid+is+seasonal,&rlz=1C1GCEA_enCA783CA783&oq=covid+is+seasonal,&aqs=chrome..69i57&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Of course there are various factors - such as extreme safety measures (shutdowns, masks, distancing etc) & vaccinations, etc - that influence the number of infections, hospitalizations & deaths. It's not so simple as blaming it on one thing, e.g. irresponsible covidiots.

Speaking of idiots:

"Several people, including the US president, have suggested that the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 and the disease it causes, COVID-19, will go away on its own in the warmer weather that will come in the Northern Hemisphere in coming months.

https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/