Predict the FINAL NUMBER of confirmed Coronavirus cases/deaths in the U.S. (Predictions ONLY)

[John Kelly]

Page 1 of this thread is interesting.

Very interesting.

 

[jimmythegreek]

I like Bob' s estimation of cases 4 months from now but at this rate I think we could see 60k more deaths a lot sooner. Unless one category supercedes the other in rank for the contest, I hope it's not the case.

 

[ComptrBob]

Update: Yisman had the lead for 180 days.

Due to lots of cases of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV2, OldSandbagger has taken the lead for good.

USA Act Cases Act Deaths
Current 75,680,487 894,316

Position Entrant Est Cases Est Deaths Score
1 OldSandbagger 100,000,000 1,200,000 31,961,613
2 yisman 45,000,000 842,000 31,988,387
3 ERBtheGREAT 24,000,000 480,000 62,038,387
4 puckhandler 14,000,000 1,200,000 69,322,587
5 Mr Merlin 6,300,000 770,000 72,488,387
6 ZzyzxRoad 5,000,000 350,000 84,288,387
7 JuanMarichal 3,500,000 350,000 85,788,387
8 bomzee 8,686,868 86,868 87,179,819
9 jb777 6,000,000 120,000 89,038,387
10 Valuist 5,000,000 50,000 91,788,387
11 Abundy 2,000,000 2,000 95,988,387
12 JohnKelly 1,000,000 5,000 96,913,387
13 FairWarning 350,000 27,000 97,013,387
14 EJD 550,000 7,500 97,300,887
15 ComptrBob 590,000 3,100 97,370,887
16 ViejoDinosaur 500,000 5,500 97,400,887
17 BigDeemer 240,000 9,900 97,550,887
18 Sleepy 300,000 3,200 97,658,387
19 Squarepants 90,000 2,500 97,885,887
20 Railbird 106,235 1,284 97,900,052
21 Dell Dude 55,555 777 97,963,407

 

[railbird]

just like the price is right, the winner is usually the highest or lowest bidder, the people in the middle usually draw dead

 

[OLDSANDBAGGER]

The charity I picked was St. Jude’s. Good for them but I’m sorry to win this contest. Been a tough couple of years for everyone. I remember when this contest was posted and I was having breakfast at a cafe in Thailand with Viejo and another friend Mike. I had watched a documentary about the pandemic 100 years ago and how it spread. And back then some cities were more strict or not about masking. And how the second wave was much worse than the first because people let their guard down.

Anyway when I made my prediction Mike said I was crazy. I asked his guess. He said at most 500 people would die. That it was no big deal. Incredibly there are still people who think that way.

 

[John Kelly]

Kudos to OLDSANDBAGGER.

 

[Viejo Dinosaur]

The charity I picked was St. Jude’s. Good for them but I’m sorry to win this contest. Been a tough couple of years for everyone. I remember when this contest was posted and I was having breakfast at a cafe in Thailand with Viejo and another friend Mike. I had watched a documentary about the pandemic 100 years ago and how it spread. And back then some cities were more strict or not about masking. And how the second wave was much worse than the first because people let their guard down.

Anyway when I made my prediction Mike said I was crazy. I asked his guess. He said at most 500 people would die. That it was no big deal. Incredibly there are still people who think that way.

Both Oldsandbagger and myself rolled our eyes when Mike said only 500 would die….I still kid Mike about it to this day….

 

[ComptrBob]

I had watched a documentary about the pandemic 100 years ago and how it spread. And back then some cities were more strict or not about masking. And how the second wave was much worse than the first because people let their guard down.

This is bullshit. The huge second wave was due to a more virulent and transmissible mutation in the Spanish flu virus (sound familiar?). Of course, they didn't know about viruses at the time and wasted millions of dollars trying to find the bacteria responsible. Fortunately, they saved samples so that when the electron microscope was invented 10 years later, they could characterize the virus.

 

[railbird]

This is bullshit. The huge second wave was due to a more virulent and transmissible mutation in the Spanish flu virus (sound familiar?). Of course, they didn't know about viruses at the time and wasted millions of dollars trying to find the bacteria responsible. Fortunately, they saved samples so that when the electron microscope was invented 10 years later, they could characterize the virus.

The Spanish flu was a much more lethal virus, it was a hemoraghic flu, people would die within 24 hr of getting it. This was a book cooking, money grabbing, man made power controlled BIO weapon made by the new world order. The lockdowns and Vaccines were far more lethal than the virus

 

[ComptrBob]

The Spanish flu was a much more lethal virus, it was a hemoraghic flu, people would die within 24 hr of getting it. This was a book cooking, money grabbing, man made power controlled BIO weapon made by the new world order. The lockdowns and Vaccines were far more lethal than the virus

Yep, and it had a "W" mortality curve with a peak among 25- to 40-year-olds as well as the very young and very old.

 

[ejd_5277]

Donation of $200 will be made to St. Jude this coming week.

OldSandbagger, in whose name shall I make it?

DM if you prefer to keep that private.

 

[ComptrBob]

Only one possible position change left. Puckhandler will take 3rd when deaths exceed 1,040,000. Unfortunately, that is likely in 4 to 5 months.

 

[homie1975]

Only one possible position change left. Puckhandler will take 3rd when deaths exceed 1,040,000. Unfortunately, that is likely in 4 to 5 months.

per worldometers we are currently at 925K. who knows what the true number is (higher or lower)

World O Meters - Covid USA numbers

 

[John Kelly]

Donation of $200 will be made to St. Jude this coming week.

OldSandbagger, in whose name shall I make it?

DM if you prefer to keep that private.

Thanks for checking in, EJD.

And thanks for offering this eye-opening contest.

Hope all is well.

 

[ComptrBob]

per worldometers we are currently at 925K. who knows what the true number is (higher or lower)

World O Meters - Covid USA numbers

Just for clarity, we are using Johns Hopkins numbers in this contest,

 

[ejd_5277]

Donation of $200 will be made to St. Jude this coming week.

OldSandbagger, in whose name shall I make it?

DM if you prefer to keep that private.

I am still waiting to hear from Sandbagger.

If I don't hear from him in another week I'll make the donation in the name of EOG.

 

[homie1975]

Page 1 of this thread is interesting.

Very interesting.

ain't that the truth!

 

[homie1975]

I like Bob' s estimation of cases 4 months from now but at this rate I think we could see 60k more deaths a lot sooner. Unless one category supercedes the other in rank for the contest, I hope it's not the case.

Omicron BA2 (variant of a variant) is here and deaths are still ~2000 a day that's another 36,000 deaths here in FEB at that rate.

 

[Viejo Dinosaur]

I am still waiting to hear from Sandbagger.

If I don't hear from him in another week I'll make the donation in the name of EOG.

I will get in touch with him in the morning

 

[Valuist]

Don't fear the reaper.

 

[OLDSANDBAGGER]

In my name, John Kendall. Thanks guys! Been busy.

 

[mr merlin]

Omicron BA2 (variant of a variant) is here and deaths are still ~2000 a day that's another 36,000 deaths here in FEB at that rate.

Those are fake deaths, give it up man.

 

[homie1975]

Those are fake deaths, give it up man.

View attachment 7465326

to say that one believes the deaths are overstated or even understated, for that matter, is one thing - but to call them fake? that is shortsighted.

this doesn't become real for *some* people until their mommy or daddy or granny or grandpa kick the bucket because of it, then it becomes real and the pendulum usually swings all the way to the other side, meaning they totally freak out and start wearing 12 masks wherever they go and dousing themselves in Purell.

or a hoaxer type dies and you cannot even say "i told you so" because the dumb phukker is DEAD !! LOLOL

 

[homie1975]

I like Bob' s estimation of cases 4 months from now but at this rate I think we could see 60k more deaths a lot sooner. Unless one category supercedes the other in rank for the contest, I hope it's not the case.

Where did Bob post this, do you know the page or the post number? he's a bright fella so i wanted to check it out.

 

[mr merlin]

to say that one believes the deaths are overstated or even understated, for that matter, is one thing - but to call them fake? that is shortsighted.

this doesn't become real for *some* people until their mommy or daddy or granny or grandpa kick the bucket because of it, then it becomes real and the pendulum usually swings all the way to the other side, meaning they totally freak out and start wearing 12 masks wherever they go and dousing themselves in Purell.

or a hoaxer type dies and you cannot even say "i told you so" because the dumb phukker is DEAD !! LOLOL

It's now well known that about 50% of people hospitalized "with covid" are not there because of covid - so that means they are sick or injured people who are seriously ill, So all of them who die are now recorded as covid deaths, all the heart attacks, strokes, aneurysms, gun shots, etc who dont make it are added to the totals.

That is why they are fake.

 

[homie1975]

It's now well known that about 50% of people hospitalized "with covid" are not there because of covid - so that means they are sick or injured people who are seriously ill, So all of them who die are now recorded as covid deaths, all the heart attacks, strokes, aneurysms, gun shots, etc who dont make it are added to the totals.

That is why they are fake.

okay so let's use your theory that the number is 50% that means that instead of 950K deaths the last 23 mos, it's actually 475K the last 23 mos. just for argument's sake. still pretty bad right?

and let's not forget that tens of thousands of people died between 1/1/2020 and 4/30/2021 when we knew very little about Covid and tests were only available in hospital settings. that is 4 mos early on in the pandemic after China unleashed the bioweapon on the world, when we had no idea what was going on and how to tame it.

there were people in NY state found dead in their homes for days and i am pretty sure 90% of those were sent to their graves with Covid as the final nail in their coffins.

 

[railbird]

lousiana caught cooking the death books, james o keefe infiltrated the hospitals down there and they have been nailed red handed

 

[mr merlin]

okay so let's use your theory that the number is 50% that means that instead of 950K deaths the last 23 mos, it's actually 475K the last 23 mos. just for argument's sake. still pretty bad right?

and let's not forget that tens of thousands of people died between 1/1/2020 and 4/30/2021 when we knew very little about Covid and tests were only available in hospital settings. that is 4 mos early on in the pandemic after China unleashed the bioweapon on the world, when we had no idea what was going on and how to tame it.

there were people in NY state found dead in their homes for days and i am pretty sure 90% of those were sent to their graves with Covid as the final nail in their coffins.

I'm not talking about the total death toll during the pandemic, I'm talking about the numbers that are being put out now - the 2000/day. Total hospitalizations nationwide for all causes are maybe 800,000 - right now there are about 90,000 people listed at "with covid" perhaps 40,000 of that 90,000 are just random people who went to the hospital for all kinds of things and then were found to have covid(they test everyone who comms in), so if they die it's listed as a covid death - even though it's not.

 

[sharky99]

Page 1 of this thread is interesting.

Very interesting.

like Jimmy's and Puckhandler's answer from page 1

 

[John Kelly]

There's never going to be a final number.

14 million cases, 1.2 million deaths
Too many Americans not taking Corona serious. Spanish Flu killed 650000 Americans

Interesting.

 

[ComptrBob]

Yep, Spanish flu was much worse per capita equivalent is almost 2M today.

 

[railbird]

Yep, Spanish flu was much worse per capita equivalent is almost 2M today.

with zero book cooking and zero co morbidity, people that died of covid is 100X less than spanish flu

 

[homie1975]

I'm not talking about the total death toll during the pandemic, I'm talking about the numbers that are being put out now - the 2000/day. Total hospitalizations nationwide for all causes are maybe 800,000 - right now there are about 90,000 people listed at "with covid" perhaps 40,000 of that 90,000 are just random people who went to the hospital for all kinds of things and then were found to have covid(they test everyone who comms in), so if they die it's listed as a covid death - even though it's not.

then i say to hell w/ the vaccines errrrrrr shots and to hell with washing my hands and wearing a mask.

let's go take our chances against the Chinese bioweapon and tell that mutha-effin virus who's boss !!!

 

[ejd_5277]

In my name, John Kendall. Thanks guys! Been busy.

Great. Will get it out this week.

 

[Valuist]

Yep, Spanish flu was much worse per capita equivalent is almost 2M today.

Yep. US pop now about 330 million. Around 100 million back in 1920, so the Spanish Flu far deadlier per capita.

 

[railbird]

NEW - "Boosted" Prince Charles has given COVID to his wife Camilla (74), the Duchess of Cornwall, who is also fully vaccinated and boosted.

 

[mr merlin]

then i say to hell w/ the vaccines errrrrrr shots and to hell with washing my hands and wearing a mask.

let's go take our chances against the Chinese bioweapon and tell that mutha-effin virus who's boss !!!

Considering the original strain of covid had a 99.7% survaval rate, and that the current omicron is maybe 99.9%, none of us are taking much of a chance. if you're fat or 80 -90 years old yea it's a concern, for the rest of society not at all.

 

[ComptrBob]

Update:

Oldsandbagger has had the lead for 82 days, the only change (between #3 and #4) will be at 1,040,000 deaths, months away, perhaps August:

USA Act Cases Act Deaths
Current 80,971,930 991,231

Position Entrant Est Cases Est Deaths Score
1 OldSandbagger 100,000,000 1,200,000 24,247,295
2 yisman 45,000,000 842,000 39,702,705
3 ERBtheGREAT 24,000,000 480,000 69,752,705
4 puckhandler 14,000,000 1,200,000 72,191,155
5 Mr Merlin 6,300,000 770,000 80,202,705
6 ZzyzxRoad 5,000,000 350,000 92,002,705
7 JuanMarichal 3,500,000 350,000 93,502,705
8 bomzee 8,686,868 86,868 94,894,137
9 jb777 6,000,000 120,000 96,752,705
10 Valuist 5,000,000 50,000 99,502,705
11 Abundy 2,000,000 2,000 103,702,705
12 JohnKelly 1,000,000 5,000 104,627,705
13 FairWarning 350,000 27,000 104,727,705
14 EJD 550,000 7,500 105,015,205
15 ComptrBob 590,000 3,100 105,085,205
16 ViejoDinosaur 500,000 5,500 105,115,205
17 BigDeemer 240,000 9,900 105,265,205
18 Sleepy 300,000 3,200 105,372,705
19 Squarepants 90,000 2,500 105,600,205
20 Railbird 106,235 1,284 105,614,370
21 Dell Dude 55,555 777 105,677,725

 

[mr merlin]

Update:

Oldsandbagger has had the lead for 82 days, the only change (between #3 and #4) will be at 1,040,000 deaths, months away, perhaps August:

USA Act Cases Act Deaths
Current 80,971,930 991,231

Position Entrant Est Cases Est Deaths Score
1 OldSandbagger 100,000,000 1,200,000 24,247,295
2 yisman 45,000,000 842,000 39,702,705
3 ERBtheGREAT 24,000,000 480,000 69,752,705
4 puckhandler 14,000,000 1,200,000 72,191,155
5 Mr Merlin 6,300,000 770,000 80,202,705
6 ZzyzxRoad 5,000,000 350,000 92,002,705
7 JuanMarichal 3,500,000 350,000 93,502,705
8 bomzee 8,686,868 86,868 94,894,137
9 jb777 6,000,000 120,000 96,752,705
10 Valuist 5,000,000 50,000 99,502,705
11 Abundy 2,000,000 2,000 103,702,705
12 JohnKelly 1,000,000 5,000 104,627,705
13 FairWarning 350,000 27,000 104,727,705
14 EJD 550,000 7,500 105,015,205
15 ComptrBob 590,000 3,100 105,085,205
16 ViejoDinosaur 500,000 5,500 105,115,205
17 BigDeemer 240,000 9,900 105,265,205
18 Sleepy 300,000 3,200 105,372,705
19 Squarepants 90,000 2,500 105,600,205
20 Railbird 106,235 1,284 105,614,370
21 Dell Dude 55,555 777 105,677,725

No need for any more updates, the numbers dont mean anything anymore since most tests are now at home and are never reported if positive, likewise the death numbers are meaningless as since it doesn't factor in incidentals.

 

[Viejo Dinosaur]

Railbird finished just ahead of Dell Dude and Donald Trump