I think it's time to fade Kelce receiving yardage. So far, the whole Swift thing hasn't hurt him....yet. But you see all these trips; to Philly to see the Phillies playoff game w/his brother, to see Swift in NY, to Arlington for game 1 of the World Series, to Denver with the Chiefs, to Germany with the Chiefs, then Buenos Aires to see Swift. That's probably 20,000 air miles in the past month. The circumference of the earth is 23k. This isn't a 24 year old player. He's well into his 30s. I'm fading.
NFL Week 11
- Thread starter Valuist
- Start date
I know the fantasy geeks will always cite the teams who can/can't defend TEs. Weeks 1-2 Hockenson and the duo of Henry & Gesicki had 15 catches and 3 TDs. And Ferguson last week 7 for 91. But there was a 5 game run from the Tampa game to Miami where the opposing TEs had 9 catches for 101 yards 0 TDs in those 5 games. It's just one prop. I'm still gonna go under.
blueline
EOG Master
Survivor Atlas
survivoratlas.com
Some prop possibilities. Most podcasts are over-centric. They all post overs. And often the overs look tempting. But miss a series or two due to a very minor injury and likely can't make up the lost time. So when you see a decent case for unders, might be time to jump on.
Javonte Williams under 68 1/2 rush yards The workload is there. Didn't get 80 on 21 carries vs a Buffalo D that gives up 4.6 ypc. Minnesota much better against the run allowing only 85 rush yards game and 3.7 ypc.
Tony Pollard under 65 1/2 rush yards. I realize the game script is in his favor as Dallas figures to be in front but he hasn't gone over 55 rush yards in his last 6 games and no runs over 16 yards. Carolina's YTD numbers against the run aren't good, but much improved since the bye week, allowing only 3.3 ypc. He also has lost a few carries to Rico Dowdle.
A couple overs to toss in:
Justin Fields over 47 1/2 rush yards. This should be easy. Fields coming off a dislocated thumb on his passing hand. His time off due to injury had nothing to do with his legs. And how did he do vs Detroit last year? To quote Dell Dude, he Darius Slayed them. 10 carries for 132 yards and 13 carries for 147 yards. That pencils out at a high school like 11 yards/carry.
Jordan Love over 226 1/2 pass yards. I've been critical of Love's accuracy but so far every QB who started against the Chargers has gone over their pass yards total. And that group would include Aidan O'Connell, Tyson Bagent and Zach Wilson.
Javonte Williams under 68 1/2 rush yards The workload is there. Didn't get 80 on 21 carries vs a Buffalo D that gives up 4.6 ypc. Minnesota much better against the run allowing only 85 rush yards game and 3.7 ypc.
Tony Pollard under 65 1/2 rush yards. I realize the game script is in his favor as Dallas figures to be in front but he hasn't gone over 55 rush yards in his last 6 games and no runs over 16 yards. Carolina's YTD numbers against the run aren't good, but much improved since the bye week, allowing only 3.3 ypc. He also has lost a few carries to Rico Dowdle.
A couple overs to toss in:
Justin Fields over 47 1/2 rush yards. This should be easy. Fields coming off a dislocated thumb on his passing hand. His time off due to injury had nothing to do with his legs. And how did he do vs Detroit last year? To quote Dell Dude, he Darius Slayed them. 10 carries for 132 yards and 13 carries for 147 yards. That pencils out at a high school like 11 yards/carry.
Jordan Love over 226 1/2 pass yards. I've been critical of Love's accuracy but so far every QB who started against the Chargers has gone over their pass yards total. And that group would include Aidan O'Connell, Tyson Bagent and Zach Wilson.
Here's another under worth adding:
Total completions, Geno Smith & Stafford: Under 45 1/2 (-125 MGM). This game appears to have the most wind, with winds expected 18-20 mph.
Pass yards allowed is a poor metric to measure pass defense. Too often, garbage yards distort the stats. Let's look at Pittsburgh:
248.4 pass yards allowed. 27th
81.5 QB rating against: 7th
58.7 completion % against: 2nd
Total completions, Geno Smith & Stafford: Under 45 1/2 (-125 MGM). This game appears to have the most wind, with winds expected 18-20 mph.
Pass yards allowed is a poor metric to measure pass defense. Too often, garbage yards distort the stats. Let's look at Pittsburgh:
248.4 pass yards allowed. 27th
81.5 QB rating against: 7th
58.7 completion % against: 2nd
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Bad play call by Bears late on a 3rd and 6 and they tried to throw a bomb. Why not let Fields do a QB draw? Detroit cannot stop Fields as a runner. Instead they throw a low pct pass and have to punt ball away to Detrot, who had the momentum.
Shame on anyone who bet Washington laying over a full TD.
Adding in the Geno Smith/Stafford under 45 1/2 completions in post 8, got a chance to sweep the props, as Williams is playing right now.
ZzyzxRoad
EOG Dedicated
I saw that live and actually thought "Kane just avoided one of the worst moments of his life" as it happened.
+3 in turnovers and over 40 minutes in time of possession, and the Bears still lose.
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more great work from you, although I am not a prop guy and not much interested in being one. Good Luck this week.