My Monday blog

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Greetings from beautiful Costa Rica where the water is warm, the women are hot and my sports betting selections unfortunately remain in the defrosting process.

This small Central American country, sandwiched between Panama and Nicaragua, offers a tropical climate with an affordable cost of living and little danger for the alert visitor.

Petty theft is the predominant threat for expats and tourists alike.

Costa Rica's relaxed attitude is the country's most desirable quality, highlighted by the land's unofficial slogan, "Pura Vida," pronounced poo-rah vee-dah.

Costa Ricans use the term pura vida to say hello or goodbye and seemingly everything in between, but the pithy phrase mostly serves to brush off any negative feelings interfering with "living the good life."

Stressed-out Americans can add years to their life and joy to their heart by learning a lesson in tranquility (tranquilidad) from their friends in Costa Rica.

Many Americans with ties to the international sports betting arena have called Costa Rica home over the past quarter-century.

Since 1999, Costa Rica has endorsed and supported online sports betting with liberal laws, few regulations, low taxes and otherwise favorable conditions for sports betting operators.

Now to the more important business of cashing wagers...

My 30-year run in Las Vegas taught me that quick stimulating questions provide the most revealing answers, especially when interviewing winners in the sports betting world.

My favorite request of fellow sports bettors is: Tell me something I don't already know.

When I first posed the question to the late Alan Denkenson, better known as "Dink," he responded without hesitation, "Westgate Las Vegas offers some of the best opportunities to bet hockey for two reasons: One is the tight straddles in pricing and the other is the house's NHL opinion sometimes shows up in those prices."

Professional sports bettor SKINNY, currently living in western Pennsylvania, shared one of his favorite strategies nearly 20 years ago, "I position myself at a Station Casinos sports book while monitoring the last-minute point spread moves at CRIS or Pinnacle."

SKINNY was wisely taking advantage of this situation -- sharp book versus square book -- years before anyone mentioned the "Pinny lean."

He would "steal" -- or better yet "secure" -- an extra point or point-and-a-half with the wiseguy side on seemingly every wager he placed at a Station Casinos location.

SKINNY's edge at Station Casinos eventually came to an end when management there barred him from the premises.

Southern California-based handicapper Matt Hatfield, a.k.a. RAILBIRD here at Eye On Gaming, discussed his mental approach to sports betting when asked for his top secret.

Birdie whispered, "Stay positive when thinking about your bankroll, your money management plan and your gambling psyche, in general. Turn negative when assessing the coaches and players: Look to bet against coaches ill-prepared for the moment or highly-publicized players who are either overrated or overmatched."

DINK, SKINNY and RAILBIRD were three of my favorite sports bettors when I lived in Las Vegas and now I'll try to channel this trio to provide three pieces of information unbeknownst to most sports bettors.

Here we go...

Twice in as many weeks and three of the last four, the Georgia Bulldogs have been installed as an impossible favorite.

What's an impossible favorite?

A favored team that fails to score the number of points it was laying.

The highly-rated Bulldogs managed to score only 26 points (four field goals and a pair of fourth-quarter touchdowns) when laying 31 points last Saturday against Missouri in a narrow four-point win against a scrappy underdog in Columbia.

Never in the history of sports betting has a 31-point favorite covered the spread when scoring only 26 points.

Georgia's other "underwhelming" games came against Group of Five competitor Kent State and FCS representative Samford.

The Bulldogs were a 45-point favorite against Kent State in a 39-22 victory on September 24 and a 53-point choice over Samford in a workmanlike 33-0 win on the second Saturday in September.

One last note on Georgia football: The team's first five games this season have produced five unders against the closing numbers at Caesars.


The 2022 World Series will be decided in November.

Game 4 of this year's World Series is scheduled for Tuesday, November 1.

Longtime gamblers understand baseball is a warm weather sport.

There's better than a 50/50 chance a World Series game this season will take place in St. Louis, Cleveland or New York.

Smart handicappers search for opportunities in early April or late October (read: early November) when games are played in frigid temperatures, limiting the flight of the ball and thus depressing scoring chances via the long ball.

Obviously, a baseball travels differently during a 40-degree game in April and a 90-degree game in July.

It is estimated a ball will travel 12-15 feet farther on a gorgeous summer day compared to a fall night better suited for football than baseball when players are covered in multiple layers to stay warm and ski masks are part of the on-field uniform.

What's more, Major League Baseball teams no longer are built to create scoring opportunities with "small ball."

"Get 'em on, get 'em over and get 'em in" is ancient history.

There was a time not long ago when a runner on second base was said to be in scoring position.

In today's game, with the preponderance of massive uppercut swings, every player who steps into the batter's box is in scoring position, especially now with the universal designated-hitter rule in place.

MLB postseason play, to the delight of baseball traditionalists, brings about the elimination of the automatic runner on second base in extra innings.

The rule, known for many years in women's college softball as the International Tie Breaker (ITB), was implemented in MLB during the 2020 pandemic season in hopes of avoiding lengthy extra-inning games.

Like many COVID-19 protocols in sports and other walks of life, the "automatic runner" rule stayed in place long after the viral danger passed.

The queer rule avoids marathon games, for the most part, but exposes baseball's all-in approach to power hitting.

When a sharp single up the middle would score the game-tying run or game-winning run in the top or bottom of the tenth inning, today's players are still swinging for the fences, situational baseball be damned.

Under bettors detest the "automatic runner" rule because it increases scoring chances in extra innings, putting their wager in jeopardy with the spectre of both teams scoring a run in the tenth inning and beyond.



More than half of all money wagered on sporting events worldwide involves the sport of soccer.

That's according to information analysts at Sportradar, a multinational corportation headquartered in Switzerland that specializes in the collection and interpretation of sports betting data.

And within the game of soccer, there's no bigger tournament than the FIFA World Cup.

FIFA roughly translates to the International Federation of Association Football and it counts 211 national soccer associations as members.

FIFA has three primary goals: 1) To grow the sport internationally, 2) To make the sport accessible to everyone and 3) To advocate for integrity and fair play.

One way to meet all three goals is to present the World Cup every four years.

A tournament that dates to 1930, the 22nd edition of the FIFA World Cup will kickoff in the State of Qatar, a rich country of 2.6 million people in western Asia.

Host Qatar will open the proceedings with a game against Ecuador on November 20.

The championship match of the prestigious tournament is set for December 18.

How much money was bet on the most recent World Cup held four years ago in Russia?

FIFA concluded $140 billion dollars was wagered across 64 games with the championship match generating more than $75 billion in action, or ten times the amount of estimated handle on the most recent Super Bowl between the Rams and Bengals.

Football, of course, is still king in the United States.

On the world stage, however, American football plays a subservient role to futbol.
 
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Heim

EOG Master
Was the former UCLA player Jalen Hill missing and presumed dead in CR a big story?

What happened, if you know?
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Just a brief mention in the local papers, HEIM.

Like other countries, Costa Rica doesn't promote when bad things happen to tourists.

Passport records show Jalen Hill entered Costa Rica on April 29.

As I understand it, his skeletal remains were found in Terrazu near San Marcos on August 8.

Hill's sister said Jalen wanted to visit Quepos, a hot spot for drugs and prostitution.

Someone in Hill's family hinted he was suffering from some psychological issues.

Sad.
 
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Viejo Dinosaur

EOG Master
JK…no mention of the change of QBs in Pittsburgh???
Pitt fans got what they asked for…

Jets winning at Hienz Field is a shocker to most…trouble is that Mitch is not the answer and Pickett not quite ready….
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Like other countries, Costa Rica doesn't promote when bad things happen to tourists.


Not unlike Vegas...

I was thinking the exact same thing, HEIM.

Remember the horrible shooting in 2017 at Mandalay Bay where crazed Stephen Paddock shot and killed 58 concertgoers from his 32nd floor suite?

When the news first broke late on a Sunday night, CNN and other outlets were calling it "The Las Vegas Massacre."

By Monday morning, the coverage was far less sensational.

And by week's end, Las Vegas leaders had renamed the tragic event "One October."

Talk about damage control!
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
JK…no mention of the change of QBs in Pittsburgh???
Pitt fans got what they asked for…

Jets winning at Hienz Field is a shocker to most…trouble is that Mitch is not the answer and Pickett not quite ready….

Good call on Mitch Trubisky's early-season failure, Arturo.

I whiffed on that prediction.

Good thing I didn't take 12/1 on Trubisky to be named NFL Comeback Player of the Year.

A price of 120/1 is too low now.

The drafting of local hero Kenny Pickett was trouble for Trubisky In Pittsburgh.

Trubisky heard footsteps while on the field with oncoming pass rushers and off the field with Pickett's fan base.
 
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John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
The next question: Will Trubisky ever make another NFL start?

He's 28 years old.

Hmmm...
 
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John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
To answer my question about Trubisky, I would say "Yes" to another NFL start and "No" to another opening-day start.

There's obviously a big difference between the two scenarios.
 
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Rockfish

EOG Addicted
Just a brief mention in the local papers, HEIM.

Like other countries, Costa Rica doesn't promote when bad things happen to tourists.

Passport records show Jalen Hill entered Costa Rica on April 29.

As I understand it, his skeletal remains were found in Terrazu near San Marcos on August 8.

Hill's sister said Jalen wanted to visit Quepos, a hotspot for drugs and prostitution.

Someone in Hill's family hinted he was suffering from some psychological iss

Just a brief mention in the local papers, HEIM.

Like other countries, Costa Rica doesn't promote when bad things happen to tourists.

Passport records show Jalen Hill entered Costa Rica on April 29.

As I understand it, his skeletal remains were found in Terrazu near San Marcos on August 8.

Hill's sister said Jalen wanted to visit Quepos, a hot spot for drugs and prostitution.

Someone in Hill's family hinted he was suffering from some psychological issues.

Sad.
Hill's sister said Jalen wanted to visit Quepos, a hot spot for drugs and prostitution. JK you say that like it is a bad thing. Some of the best times of my life was in and around hot spots for drugs and prostitution. LOL! But true.
 

Abundy

EOG Addicted
Drugs and Prostitution equal a lot of potential trouble. Should not be very hard to get laid in Costa Rica unless your 3 bills are larger. Then it will probably cost you 3 bills or more to lay with blabby Ass
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Hill's sister said Jalen wanted to visit Quepos, a hot spot for drugs and prostitution. JK you say that like it is a bad thing. Some of the best times of my life was in and around hot spots for drugs and prostitution. LOL! But true.

Haha.

I don't endorse drugs.

And I only endorse prostitution if a female is paying me.

Still holding out hope.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
JK. I love your Monday morning blogs. are you going to live in Costa Rica the year around

Keeping all options open, ABUNDY.

Visitors get 90 days in Costa Rica and then must leave the country (run to the border) for 72 hours.

Easy decision between Panama and Nicaragua these days.

Panama is the clear choice.

I usually spend a weekend at Hipodromo Presidente Remon Racetrack, home of the Laffit Pincay Jockey School.

To Uber drivers in Panama, I always bring up the names of Pincay, Roberto Duran and Mariano Rivera.
 
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Abundy

EOG Addicted
Waiting for Prostitutes to offer you money is a sure fire way to save money. Save your money for gambling. I would not want to lose my Us citizenship either. We’re you not pretty enormored with a local recently
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Waiting for Prostitutes to offer you money is a sure fire way to save money. Save your money for gambling. I would not want to lose my Us citizenship either. We’re you not pretty enormored with a local recently

I have better luck with the fillies on the racetrack than the ladies in Las Vegas or Costa Rica.

And, of course, the ladies of the WNBA are among my favorite women in the world, but they're not interested in my type.

In truth, I believe most WNBA players despise straight white males.

I think a lot of those diversity initiatives are one-way streets.
 
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John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
125 dead soccer game in indonesia

CNN got me with a click-bait headline that read, "At least 125 dead at a football stadium."

Just as I was clicking onto the story, I thought "soccer stadium in a faraway place."

Sure enough, a soccer stadium in Indonesia.

Doesn't make the story any less tragic, but it does admittedly lessen the impact.
 
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winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
The next question: Will Trubisky ever make another NFL start?

He's 28 years old.

Hmmm...

Hope not. Go look at one of my EOG BB plays: Kenny Picket at 13-1 to be NFL ROY. When the newest odds get posted no way he is double digits.

Although even the Stillers know playing him in Week 5 at the Bills is the equivalent of a "human sacrifice" and Week 6 hosting TOMpa Bay is not much better. But you gotta "Toss Pickett into the deep end of the pool" and see if he is gonna swim or drown so might as well find out sooner, rather than later
 

skinny

EOG Addicted
I bet the Steelers under 8 wins this year hoping Pickett would start at some point.
I'm happy that it happened this quickly.
There's a reason he was at Pitt for 5 years.
 

Woodrow Wilson

EOG Dedicated
Since I believe you fall more under the artist umbrella of handicapping styles, I was thinking you'd post something about John Harbaugh taking a loss because of his over-reliance on analytics.

This is another interesting read.
 

Heim

EOG Master
Since I believe you fall more under the artist umbrella of handicapping styles, I was thinking you'd post something about John Harbaugh taking a loss because of his over-reliance on analytics.

This is another interesting read.

It bit Charger HC Staley in the ass last year.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
I bet the Steelers under 8 wins this year hoping Pickett would start at some point.
I'm happy that it happened this quickly.
There's a reason he was at Pitt for 5 years.

You had to be delighted when the Jets scored the final 14 points of the game in Pittsburgh to win, 24-20.

The Steelers are now 1-3 and travel to Buffalo in Week 5.
 

railbird

EOG Master
Harbaugh was correct in going for 7 late, was also correct in letting them score with 145 left, neither were executed. was harbaugh fault they lost, they played best team in leauge close
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Since I believe you fall more under the artist umbrella of handicapping styles, I was thinking you'd post something about John Harbaugh taking a loss because of his over-reliance on analytics.

This is another interesting read.

You're right, Woodrow, I'm more of a handicapping artist than handicapping scientist, but I appreciate the emergence of analytics in all sports.

Long overdue.

I attended a White Sox game last month and noticed a small crowd for a weekday matinee game.

No more than 10,000 people in the stands.

Attendance was announced at 16,654.

Baseball counts tickets sold, not clicks of the turnstile.

Why not both?

And I tell the story to offer a comment on analytics: MLB can measure the revolutions of a pitched ball and the launch angle of a batted ball, but they refuse to tell us the actual number of fans in the stands.

Tsk tsk.
 
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MrTop

EOG Master
You're right, Woodrow, I'm more of a handicapping artist than handicapping scientist, but I appreciate the emergence of analytics in all sports.

Long overdue.

I attended a White Sox game last month and noticed a small crowd for a weekday matinee game.

No more than 10,000 people in the stands.

Attendance was announced at 16,654.

Baseball counts tickets sold, not clicks of the turnstile.

Why not both?

And I tell the story to offer a comment on analytics: MLB can measure the revolutions of a pitched ball and the launch angle of a batted ball, but they refuse to tell us the actual number of fans in the stands.

Tsk tsk.



i could be wrong but i thought one league counts fans at game the other league does tickets???
 

railbird

EOG Master
You're right, Woodrow, I'm more of a handicapping artist than handicapping scientist, but I appreciate the emergence of analytics in all sports.

Long overdue.

I attended a White Sox game last month and noticed a small crowd for a weekday matinee game.

No more than 10,000 people in the stands.

Attendance was announced at 16,654.

Baseball counts tickets sold, not clicks of the turnstile.

Why not both?

And I tell the story to offer a comment on analytics: MLB can measure the revolutions of a pitched ball and the launch angle of a batted ball, but they refuse to tell us the actual number of fans in the stands.

Tsk tsk.
us scalpers would go into big a and play price is right on attendance, we were good would always be with in 1000
 

Rockfish

EOG Addicted
Waiting for Prostitutes to offer you money is a sure fire way to save money. Save your money for gambling. I would not want to lose my Us citizenship either. We’re you not pretty enormored with a local recently
Abundy, why would you say " I would not want to lose my Us citizenship either".
 

raycabino

Long Live Wilson!
Harbaugh was correct in going for 7 late, was also correct in letting them score with 145 left, neither were executed. was harbaugh fault they lost, they played best team in leauge close
This isnt the bet against black coaches thread Rail however I do agree with your position on Harbaugh's decisions here.
 

Rockfish

EOG Addicted
My bad, ROCK.

I deleted that line from one of my posts, but ABUNDY had already reacted to it.
Why would anyone lose their US citizenship? US citizens are almost never stripped of their citizenship except for some limited exceptions. Of course they can give up citizenship voluntarily if they choose to.
 
Top