My Monday blog

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
I have a longstanding love-hate relationship with sports betting.

But my alternating emotions are not based on wins and losses.

A gambler's return on investment (ROI) is far more important than a won-loss ledger.

Win four of six sports betting selections and then lose your seventh and final play when placing a "double-bet" and your 4-3 record at odds of 11/10 produces a loss of nearly five cents on the dollar.

Tough game.

Drop 5% of your bankroll every day and you will lose about 40% of your total bank at the end of a 10-day run.

Keep splitting your plays over a monthlong period and you will see an 80% decline in your gambling fund.

At first blush, standard sports betting odds of 11/10 do not appear insurmountable.

Upon further review, the 4.54% house edge is extremely difficult to overcome, especially against an efficiently-priced betting market (think Pinnacle in the 1990s).

Here are three other notes from a dedicated handicapper's weekly notebook:


1) Coaching matters

To find the winning side before a game is played, it is incumbent upon a handicapper to determine which team will benefit more from a tactical perspective.

Most games are won by the players between the lines, but there are some games that are won by the coaches on the sideline.

The job of any coach or manager is to put his players in the best position to win a game.

Minnesota head football coach P.J. Fleck is known as a master motivator with his signature phrase "Row The Boat."

His program looks poised to enter the league's elite after last Saturday's comprehensive 34-7 road victory over Michigan State.

Fleck's respectable 22-22 record in Big Ten play since 2017 is a positive sign for Golden Gopher Nation.

At only 41 years of age, Fleck's star is pointing skyward and his positive coach-player relationships are unmistakable, on and off the field.

After Minnesota's fourth win in as many games this season, Fleck revealed one of the secrets to his success.

Fleck said, "Bad teams are led by coaches, good teams are led by players."

When players take ownership of their team and its outcomes, good things happen.


2) Prices matter

When I first arrived in Las Vegas in the late 1980s, I would ask accomplished sports bettors, "Who do you like?"

I quickly learned to refine the question.

"Who did you bet?"
was a more specific question, but it still missed an important aspect of the winning equation.

The proper question is a two-pronged query: "Who did you bet and at what price?"

This past Saturday, Duke traveled to Lawrence, Kansas to play the Jayhawks in a battle of undefeated football teams overshadowed by the rich history of their basketball programs.

KU defeated Duke, 35-27, in a game that saw the Jayhawks favored by nine points early in the week and seven points at kickoff.

Eye On Gaming contributor KANE timed the market beautifully when he posted a selection on Duke +9 last Monday.

KANE was rewarded for his early-week shopping when Duke scored a late touchdown with less than three minutes remaining in the game to narrow KU's margin from 15 points to only eight.

Cue Kane, "If you're waiting for the weekend to get your plays in, you're not giving yourself the best chance to win. Ninety percent of my plays are made before the weekend starts.


3) Beware of "expert" opinions

With the explosion of legalized national sports betting, every sports media personality is now a so-called sports betting expert.

One of Chicago's biggest names, David Kaplan, is a likable character, insightful interviewer and provocative commentator.

He's labeled a dual threat by working for both the ESPN Radio affiliate in Chicago and NBC Sports Chicago on television.

He's one of the best in the Chicago market, if only he would stay in his lane.

FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM and Caesars are paying high-profile media personalities in select markets to endorse their gambling products.

Kaplan is currently promoting PointsBet, a second-tier sports betting company launched in Australia just five years ago.

Kaplan last week unwisely went on record with a bold prediction that the underachieving White Sox would sweep the surging Guardians and pull within one game of the American League Central leaders.

Kaplan was right about the sweep, but his team was on the wrong end of the broom.

The home-standing White Sox were swept in a critical three-game series by a combined score of 22-11.

The well-managed Guardians exposed every weakness of the listless White Sox: the lack of hustle, the lack of defense, the lack of solid fundamental play and the inability to rise to the occasion.

Cleveland catcher Austin Hedges summed up the situation beautifully after a big win in one of the division showdowns last week, "We don't rise to the occasion, the occasion is every day."

On the final night of the three-game series against the Guardians, White Sox brass invited sportscaster David Kaplan to throw out the game's first pitch.

He threw a pitch that fell at least 10 feet short of home plate.

It was a "pathetic" effort (his word, not mine).

Unfortunately for Kaplan, he was pathetic, not prophetic.
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
2) Prices matter

When I first arrived in Las Vegas in the late 1980s, I would ask accomplished sports bettors, "Who do you like?"

I quickly learned to refine the question.

"Who did you bet?" was a more specific question, but it still missed an important aspect of the winning equation.

The proper question is a two-pronged query: "Who did you bet and at what price?"

This past Saturday, Duke traveled to Lawrence, Kansas to play the Jayhawks in a battle of undefeated football teams overshadowed by the rich history of their basketball programs.

KU defeated Duke, 35-27, in a game that saw the Jayhawks favored by nine points early in the week and seven points at kickoff.

Eye On Gaming contributor KANE timed the market beautifully when he posted a selection on Duke +9 last Monday.

KANE was rewarded for his early-week shopping when Duke scored a late touchdown with less than three minutes remaining in the game to narrow KU's margin from 15 points to only eight.

Cue Kane, "If you're waiting for the weekend to get your plays in, you're not giving yourself the best chance to win. Ninety percent of my plays are made before the weekend starts.

YES!
YES!
1,000,000 times YES!

I've told this story before...............January 2, 1992. I am in Vegas for the Fullerton @ UNLV Game. Also that day UCSB is at Pacific. My friend and I "know" Santa Barbara is gonna easily win so we load up on "UCSB Pick." We head to the T&M and see Fullerton lose by a million. We are also told with 10 minutes left Pacific is UP 9. FFFFFFFFFFFFFFF! We are gonna lose our bets and we bet a lot more than we could stand to lose. After the game we don't hear a score so I go walk around the court, wait for Ross Porter to take off his headset so I know he is done and can talk. I ask him how the game finished. He told me Ray Kelly (UCSB) hit a 10-footer with 2 seconds left to give Santa Barbara a 1-point win. I signal to my friend we WON. We are both going crazy even though Fullerton lost by 30+ (And woulda been 50+ had Tark not called off the dogs). I go back to the Stardust and cash my "UCSB Pick" plays. I had another ticket to cash across the street at The Riviera so I go there. On the floor of the book I see a "UCSB -1.5" ticket laying on the floor.

Here it is 30+ years later AND I HAVE NEVER FORGOTTEN THAT MONENT AND NEVER WILL! I learned "Get the best number or don't bet at all." I also learned "WHAT you bet is far more important than WHO you bet." JK is dead on nails right in what he said. It is hard enough to be successful when getting the best number. Playing a bad number is nothing more than economic suicide. Nevada books make a killing from dumbasses who took Duke +7.5 and then bitched about a "Bad Beat" when the only thing bad about their bet was their stupidity and losing a bet they should have pushed - at worst.

NOT losing a bet is the same as WINNING one. People need to keep this in mind
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
Who do you like vs who did you bet….very nice analogy….

Too many gamblers overestimate their winning percentages…

Vegas Dave brags about how great a % he hits. But betting -400 faves, and paying his fees, means someone has to hit about 95% to break-even with him. He blocked me on Twitter a long time ago for him calling him out as the fraud we all know that midget is
 

Heim

EOG Master
Has raising the vig to balance action been a long standing practice?

I remember I had a local in the early 90s, he gave me a line with unbalanced
vig, I said 'when did this start'?
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
I remember Robert Walker at The Mirage moving money on NFL 3's in the late 1990s.

Not sure if he was the first, but he loved the move.

Before Walker, NFL games bounced from 2.5 to 3 to 3.5 and back to 3.

One revelation I experienced in the late 1980s/early 1990s, prior to the offshore explosion, was the lack of success by limp home favorites in the NFL.

Over three seasons, I charted NFL point spread moves at the Stardust.

When NFL home favorites opened 2.5, was never bet up to 3, and closed at 2 points or less, it seemed they were extremely vulnerable plays.

Think about it: House welcomes the first bet on the short home favorite, there are no takers and then money pours in on the short road underdog.

Joe Sixpack is not betting NFL road teams catching less than three points.
 
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Viejo Dinosaur

EOG Master
I remember Robert Walker at The Mirage moving money on NFL 3's in the late 1990s.

Not sure if he was the first, but he loved the move.

Before Walker, NFL games bounced from 2.5 to 3 to 3.5 and back to 3.

One revelation I experienced in the late 1980s/early 1990s, prior to the offshore explosion, was the lack of success by limp home favorites in the NFL.

Over three seasons, I charted NFL point spread moves at the Stardust.

When an NFL home favorite opened 2.5, was never bet up to 3, and closed at 2 points or less, it seemed they were extremely vulnerable plays.

Think about it: House welcomes the first bet on the short home favorite, there are no takers and then money pours in on the short road underdog.

Joe Sixpack is not betting NFL road teams catching less than three points.
Great observation JK….I have lots of stories about our office battles with the Cigar back in the late 80s and early 90s when opening lines came 3 or 2.5 in the NFL…my friend and mentor Steak TarTar always had his opinions and solutions on how to handle those situations…
 

railbird

EOG Master
I remember Robert Walker at The Mirage moving money on NFL 3's in the late 1990s.

Not sure if he was the first, but he loved the move.

Before Walker, NFL games bounced from 2.5 to 3 to 3.5 and back to 3.

One revelation I experienced in the late 1980s/early 1990s, prior to the offshore explosion, was the lack of success by limp home favorites in the NFL.

Over three seasons, I charted NFL point spread moves at the Stardust.

When an NFL home favorite opened 2.5, was never bet up to 3, and closed at 2 points or less, it seemed they were extremely vulnerable plays.

Think about it: House welcomes the first bet on the short home favorite, there are no takers and then money pours in on the short road underdog.

Joe Sixpack is not betting NFL road teams catching less than three points.
caliente would let you buy on or off 3 for 10 cents 1989-1999
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
caliente would let you buy on or off 3 for 10 cents 1989-1999

And I distinctly remember seeing posted NFL limits of $50,000 at several Caliente sports book outlets in Tijuana in the 1980s.

Two gambling games in T.J.: 1) Winning the bet and 2) Making it back safely to the U.S. side.
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
And I distinctly remember seeing posted NFL limits of $50,000 at several Caliente sports book outlets in Tijuana in the 1980s.

Two gambling games in T.J.: 1) Winning the bet and 2) Making it back safely to the U.S. side.

Haven't been to TJ in about 25 years but when I went I never felt unsafe.

I do recall placing some sports wagers and if/when I won having to pay taxes on it so if I won, say, $50, getting less than that back to me.

I'd love to go back. It's just that I value having my head still attached to above my shoulders more than I do getting a nice leather bag for $20 or less.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Caliente Racetrack deserves credit for introducing the Pick 6 before the wager was popularized in southern California.

Caliente called its six-race series, "The Five-Ten," for races five through 10.
 
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