MLB modelers do not bet after the All-Star break? Books have caught up? True or False?

svbettor

EOG Veteran
Here is the theory. Please correct me if I am wrong. It seems that many MLB modelers seem to stop betting after the MLB All star break because the books have caught and the lines are very sharp. At which point that Qualitative handicappers have the advantage

I am not an MLB modeler but I wanted to confirm if this is true or not.
 

Paleface

EOG 500 Champion Dec. 2013
No, I would say modelers now switch gears to football as I've seen many bettors now put all their efforts in football now that the NFL season "starts" in about two weeks.

Obviously not the regular season, but NFL pre-season which is what many of those people bet on.

But the MLB market is already extremely difficult well before the all-star break.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
I think some of the best betting opportunities in MLB come after the All-Star break. Forget about the modelers. The books are putting more work in getting ready for football.

Any modeler who thinks the lines are too sharp in the second half of the season likely is relying on year to date data. Is what happened in April relevant to now? Maybe but probably not. Older data is stale.
 

raycabino

Long Live Wilson!
Here is the theory. Please correct me if I am wrong. It seems that many MLB modelers seem to stop betting after the MLB All star break because the books have caught and the lines are very sharp. At which point that Qualitative handicappers have the advantage

I am not an MLB modeler but I wanted to confirm if this is true or not.
To answer this, the best baseball modeler I knew 10-12 years ago was always strongest the 1st 2-3 months of the baseball season. Reason being is that he did a great job of evaluating the minor league talent that was coming up and incorporated it very well into his work. After the 1st couple months though there are no more secrets.
 

svbettor

EOG Veteran
To answer this, the best baseball modeler I knew 10-12 years ago was always strongest the 1st 2-3 months of the baseball season. Reason being is that he did a great job of evaluating the minor league talent that was coming up and incorporated it very well into his work. After the 1st couple months though there are no more secrets.

Thanks Ray for your honest answer. After the first 3 months there are no more secrets thus the lines are sharper. I just believe that smart guys just move on to the next sport which is football. However there are edges still in baseball but dramatically reduced. I personally do not like betting coin flips so I rather just focus on CFB, NFL, FCS, NFLx
 

Ray Luca

EOG Master
To answer this, the best baseball modeler I knew 10-12 years ago was always strongest the 1st 2-3 months of the baseball season. Reason being is that he did a great job of evaluating the minor league talent that was coming up and incorporated it very well into his work. After the 1st couple months though there are no more secrets.

Jeff?
 

Valuist

EOG Master
Thanks Ray for your honest answer. After the first 3 months there are no more secrets thus the lines are sharper. I just believe that smart guys just move on to the next sport which is football. However there are edges still in baseball but dramatically reduced. I personally do not like betting coin flips so I rather just focus on CFB, NFL, FCS, NFLx

IMO MLB is a better sport to bet than football. Why? First off, there's many more opportunities. What is there, 275 regular season NFL games? That's not that much. Secondly, there's more useable data. Third, the new frontier is the prop market. There's so many great props in MLB (granted with low limits). I can make 8 prop bets in a day and can easily explain and justify them. When it comes to NFL props, I find it much more of a coin flip. I also think with so few games, EVERYONE knows everything about every NFL team. It's not just professional bettors and books. Nowadays even squares and weekend warriors can be totally up to date on every team.

Don't get me wrong, I love the NFL. Betting it and watching it. And while I will watch MLB, the 3 outcomes obsession has clearly hurt the watchability and made the games longer. But my MLB betting handle will be exponentially higher than my NFL handle.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
IMO MLB is a better sport to bet than football. Why? First off, there's many more opportunities. What is there, 275 regular season NFL games? That's not that much. Secondly, there's more useable data. Third, the new frontier is the prop market. There's so many great props in MLB (granted with low limits). I can make 8 prop bets in a day and can easily explain and justify them. When it comes to NFL props, I find it much more of a coin flip. I also think with so few games, EVERYONE knows everything about every NFL team. It's not just professional bettors and books. Nowadays even squares and weekend warriors can be totally up to date on every team.

Don't get me wrong, I love the NFL. Betting it and watching it. And while I will watch MLB, the 3 outcomes obsession has clearly hurt the watchability and made the games longer. But my MLB betting handle will be exponentially higher than my NFL handle.

Great points, VALUIST.

And let's not forget about live wagering in MLB.

The options and opportunities are endless.

Live wagering is to sports betting what online poker was to traditional table poker.

ComptrBob this season has done an excellent job finding some holes in the MLB live betting algorithms.
 
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raycabino

Long Live Wilson!
Don’t know much about his handicapping but I saw him on Jeopardy. Is he a proven winning capper??
Super smart kid. I can't speak of what he's doing now but long story short, anything that he is willing to put his time into to beat he will beat. He really crushed baseball futures back when my crew was working with him. The year Tampa and Philly made the world series he had both of those teams winning the pennant and we bet both of those teams almost every day.
 
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