This is truly piss poor thinking. Going for 2 early + late XP not only gives the same probability as early XP + late 2, but also the ability to tie with a late 2 if the early 2 fails. This option adds about 12.5% (50% 1st miss * 50% 2nd make * 50% win in OT) and when the choice is to go for two early vs late, it means always go for 2 early.
Exactly!!
As usual, great analysis by CB.
This particular situation has been a pet peeve of mine for years. Bob hits the nail on the head by pointing out the key edge of getting a semi-mulligan if u fail on the 1st 2 point conversion.
But what is astonishing is how few teams do it.
Around 2-3 years ago Pro Football Reference was harping on this, making same basic points Bob did, yet they said that in the previous year or 2 (exact numbers are hazy but close), NFL teams had @ 120 occasions where they were down by 14 points late in the game with @ 5 minutes of less left in the game, scored a TD, and NOBODY made the statistically correct decision & went for 2. NOBODY!! 0-120! Not the great but overrated Belichick (why didn’t he call timeout with 80 seconds left before Malcolm Butler bailed his ass out), not anybody.
I really don’t follow NFL too closely anymore, but I do believe some teams have finally done the Junior High School math & have started going for 2 in this situation.
Another pet peeve of mine is kicking a field goal down 10-11 with @ a minute left like Jax did. Odds of winning are minuscule regardless of what u do, but going for the TD makes it slightly less minuscule than attempting a FG.
Playing strategy decisions should be based on EV. Coaches should treat them like AP’s do.
Many people here say teams should spend .000001% of their budget on a dedicated AP type who knows the EV of playing decisions. I strongly agree.
Hiring Computer Bob imo would have the same value as a 2nd or 3rd round draft pick, given the current state of ignorance demonstrated by NFL coaches.