Horse racing

mr.inpak

EOG Enthusiast
this is amazing to me but i have noticed this in the last few months espicially gulfstream aqueduct santa anita charlestown when ever you bet a odds on favor the horse breaks out of the gate very well the odds will drop from 4-5 to 2-5 the horse will win 90 percent of the time on the other hand when the horse goes up to 6-5 and breaks fair or poorly they very rarley win is this smart money or betting after the bell
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
I've noticed the same thing.

My experience: A favorite whose odds drift up in the final minute of wagering is far more likely to lose than a favorite whose odds dip in the final minute of wagering is likely to win.

The first race at Hawthorne yesterday highlights one of the real problems with the game today.

The winner of the race was listed at odds of 10/1 on the morning line, held at odds of 9/2 as the horses entered the starting gate and dropped to odds of 8/5 as the horses raced into the first turn.

The batch bettors were able to press one button and clobber this horse in all the pools (win, exacta, trifecta, daily double and Pick 5).

Looked like $8,000 of the final $16,000 in the win pool landed on the "good thing" named Magic Solution.

Horse won going away by more than nine lengths in frontrunning fashion.

Some wagering group made a decent score in the Hawthorne opener and hid their intent until after the gates opened.

Bad for the game.
 

Neveragain

EOG Dedicated
Taking a look at the Keeneland card from Saturday.
Nothing noteworthy except in the 11th race.
Awesome Gerry #3 was 28-1 at 0 minutes to post and 20-1 as final tote odds.
Of course he wins by daylight and pays $43 for the win.

Former odds maker Roxy Roxborough noted recently on spanky’s podcast that these player groups who
pound the board with late computer bets are the only ones capable of winning at the track anymore.
My opinion is you still need reliable information from the connections or elite DRF skills to be successful long term though.
 

bobodad

EOG Addicted
"The Jockey Club's average hold on a race is better than HK$100 million" - quoting from the HK Racing News.

$100 million HKD equals $12.8 million USD is the average amount betting on ONE horse race through the Hong Kong Jockey Club. With this much money at stake on every race, everything are put under a microscope. The Hong Kong Jockey Club has done a great job in keeping the game clean, and restoring the confidence of horse bettors on the game.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Many years ago, the Hong Kong Jockey Club hired former NYRA executive Bill Nader as a key consultant.

Shrewd move.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Taking a look at the Keeneland card from Saturday.
Nothing noteworthy except in the 11th race.
Awesome Gerry #3 was 28-1 at 0 minutes to post and 20-1 as final tote odds.
Of course he wins by daylight and pays $43 for the win.

Former odds maker Roxy Roxborough noted recently on spanky’s podcast that these player groups who
pound the board with late computer bets are the only ones capable of winning at the track anymore.
My opinion is you still need reliable information from the connections or elite DRF skills to be successful long term though.

Allowing those computer groups access to batch betting is an unfair advantage over the boys in the grandstand and clubhouse.

Pari-mutuel betting, loosely translated, means betting among ourselves.

I would add "on level terms" to the definition.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
I think batch betting has driven many, myself included, basically out of the horse racing game. I will play the real big days when there's lots of public money, but that's it. A Thursday card at Aqueduct or a Wednesday card at Ellis Park? Forget about it.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
I think batch betting has driven many, myself included, basically out of the horse racing game. I will play the real big days when there's lots of public money, but that's it. A Thursday card at Aqueduct or a Wednesday card at Ellis Park? Forget about it.

My thoughts exactly.

I can usually spot the unnatural money in the pool.

Sometimes it wins, sometimes it loses.

I'd estimate the groups are making only 1 or 2 percent on their money.

But that's a huge haul when you're betting tens of millions of dollars every year.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Opening Day at Colonial.

Bombs away, DFISH?

The winner (Smile Brian) was only 9/2 in a 12-horse field.

Sidenote: Track announcer Jason Beem continues to improve his craft.

I enjoy his call when the gates open: "And the race is on!"
 

blueline

EOG Master
Opening Day at Colonial.

Bombs away, DFISH?

The winner (Smile Brian) was only 9/2 in a 12-horse field.

Sidenote: Track announcer Jason Beem continues to improve his craft.

I enjoy his call when the gates open: "And the race is on!"
I will go out on a limb here and say the bombs away was referring to the most recent race run at the time of the post which would have been the 50/1 winner
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Bombs away Colonial last race
One for the name & # players I guess 🤷🏻‍♂️

I will go out on a limb here and say the bombs away was referring to the most recent race run at the time of the post which would have been the 50/1 winner

Ahh...

I understood Colonial's last race to mean the ninth and final race.

Had DFISH wrote the "latest race," I would have understood.

Got it.

Watching, not betting, the action tonight at Mountaineer Park.

Love simulcast handicapper Mark Patterson's commentary.

Knows the product very well and his gambling/handicapping jargon is top-shelf.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Mountaineer Park just held a two-furlong event as the sixth race on tonight's card.

No surprise, first out and first home was the winner, Inspiring Justice, at odds of 4/1.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
In the last race tonight at Mountaineer Park, the winner of the race, Despeight All Odds, won by 11 1/2 lengths, according to track announcer Peter Barry.

Good news and bad news for those who backed the favorite.

The good news: The winner won handily.

The bad news: The horse's odds dropped from 8/5 when the gates opened to 3/5 in midstretch.

About half the money in a win pool of more than $22,000 arrived AFTER the gates opened.

A total of $3,400 was bet on the winner over the first 20 minutes of wagering.

And more than $7,000 was wagered on the winner in the final few seconds of wagering.

I don't believe anyone is cheating, but the batch bettors have the unique ability to press one button to bet thousands of dollars in mere seconds.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Or is it a situation where simulcast stations are reporting their wagers to the host track in the final seconds of wagering?

Not sure.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
The problem for the individual horseplayer trying to beat the races: It's easy to handicap the races, but hard to gamble on a product where the odds are unknown until after the race is off.

At 8/5, Despeight All Odds was a great bet.

At 7/10, not so much.

For sports bettors, that's the difference between +160 and -143.
 
Last edited:

blueline

EOG Master
There may be some embellishment to his stories.

He has an inflated view of MNR racing and his own handicapping abilities.
"Bots" are betting MNR....not me or anyone else I know.
He can probably gain an edge for himself during winter racing...but thats it.

I did like his comment about living life to the rhythm of the track....thats true.
 

blueline

EOG Master
He said it right near the end..something about living life in 25 min segments....takes 25 mins to eat....mentioned a couple of other things....said its why he could never live in the "other world"

Every 25 mins he gets a verdict and maybe gratification...I get it
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
He said it right near the end..something about living life in 25 min segments....takes 25 mins to eat....mentioned a couple of other things....said its why he could never live in the "other world"

Every 25 mins he gets a verdict and maybe gratification...I get it

Love it.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
As a dedicated sports bettor, I mark time through the sport seasons.

I'm sure avid horseplayers do the same with racing meets.
 
Top