"Covid Surges In 4 Of 5 Most Vaccinated Countries—Here’s Why The U.S. Should Worry"

"KEY BACKGROUND

In many wealthy countries, vaccines have often been framed as the ultimate exit strategy from lockdown. Cases have declined in some countries executing successful and rapid campaigns, including the U.S., the U.K. and Israel, though experts point to places like Chile as a frightening example of what can happen if things are eased too quickly and warn a vaccine on its own is likely not enough. The efficacy of particular vaccines is likely to become a prominent concern as more countries begin to ramp up inoculation campaigns and there are concerns that some, like China’s Sinopharm vaccine, are far less effective at controlling the disease than those produced by the likes of Moderna and Pfizer.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

World leaders, including the head of the World Health Organization, issue frequent reminders that nobody is “safe until everyone is safe,” an issue underscored by the vast vaccine inequity between nations. New, potentially more dangerous, variants are emerging across the globe, some of which could potentially evade existing vaccines. The WHO classified the B.1.617 variant tearing through India as a variant of concern Tuesday, noting it may be more infectious.

BIG NUMBER

45%. All five of the world’s most vaccinated countries have at least this proportion of their population partially vaccinated. Data is available for Bahrain (47%), Chile (45%), Israel (60%) and the Seychelles (69%), with the UAE claiming third place thanks to its high number of doses given per capita (which is around 115,000 per 100,000 people; the UAE does not declare more granular data). The Seychelles (61%) and Israel (56%) also have the highest proportion of their population fully vaccinated, followed by Chile (38%) and Bahrain (35%). The U.S., where vaccination rates are declining in all but four states, sits just behind Chile and Bahrain, with 35% of its population now fully vaccinated and 46% partially.

TANGENT

In the U.S., where vaccine hesitancy remains high, polling indicates that unvaccinated Americans are likely to be the most comfortable engaging in normal activities. This risks sustained community transmission as many states begin to reopen in response to rising vaccination rates.

FURTHER READING

Covid Is Surging In Chile Despite High Vaccination Rates — Here’s Why The U.S. Should Take Notice (Forbes)
Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe (NYT)
Vaccinations Are Now Declining In All But Four States—Here’s Where The Drop Off Is The Worst (Forbes)
Travel Interest Surging As States Reopen — But Unvaccinated Americans Are More Likely To Be Getting Out, Poll Finds (Forbes)

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robert...eres-why-the-us-should-worry/?sh=14daa855d677
 

mr merlin

EOG Master
It's been well documented that cases seem to surge as vaccinations are given in great numbers, of course the "experts" deny a link. Our cases are dropping fast now just as vaccinations plunge, is it the weather, is it herd immunity kicking in, or is it reduced vaccinations? We dont know.

There are about 12 million kids that are now eligible, I would guess less than 1/2 will get the shot, that'll momentarially boost the numbers . An extra 4-5 million initial vaccinations nationwide is prob not enough to juice the case numbers much, plus kids are now leaving schools so they wont be tested much.
 

mr merlin

EOG Master
Things seem to be moving much quicker than anticipated when it comes to reopening everything and removing masks, Ohio Gov Dewine caving yesterday is big, as he was a true believer.

A month or two ago most people thought mask mandates in blue states would prob linger through the summer, now they'll be mostly gone by the beginning of summer.
 
It's been well documented that cases seem to surge as vaccinations are given in great numbers, of course the "experts" deny a link. Our cases are dropping fast now just as vaccinations plunge, is it the weather, is it herd immunity kicking in, or is it reduced vaccinations? We dont know.

There are about 12 million kids that are now eligible, I would guess less than 1/2 will get the shot, that'll momentarially boost the numbers . An extra 4-5 million initial vaccinations nationwide is prob not enough to juice the case numbers much, plus kids are now leaving schools so they wont be tested much.
So much comedy from you on the daily reg-priceless
 

mr merlin

EOG Master
Cases falling bigtime in my beloved SD , below 100 most every day - vaccinations there have slowed to a crawl, so far in the first 4 days of the week they've vaccinated less than 1100 new people, they're basically finished vaccinating - will gain less than 1%/month.

Is that why cases are dropping?
 
It's been well documented that cases seem to surge as vaccinations are given in great numbers, of course the "experts" deny a link.

Documented. Where? OTOH highly vaccinated Israel, for example, has seen cases plunge to relatively almost nothing.

Our cases are dropping fast now just as vaccinations plunge, is it the weather, is it herd immunity kicking in, or is it reduced vaccinations? We dont know.

USA vaccination numbers are ever increasing, not plunging. In a few weeks Texas, for example, went from 43% (Apr.15) to over 51% (May 10).


There are about 12 million kids that are now eligible, I would guess less than 1/2 will get the shot, that'll momentarially boost the numbers . An extra 4-5 million initial vaccinations nationwide is prob not enough to juice the case numbers much, plus kids are now leaving schools so they wont be tested much.

"School-aged kids in Austin-Travis County urged to get vaccinated as youth hospitalization rates spike":

https://www.kxan.com/news/education...cinated-as-youth-hospitalization-rates-spike/
 

mr merlin

EOG Master
Documented. Where? OTOH highly vaccinated Israel, for example, has seen cases plunge to relatively almost nothing.



USA vaccination numbers are ever increasing, not plunging. In a few weeks Texas, for example, went from 43% (Apr.15) to over 51% (May 10).



"School-aged kids in Austin-Travis County urged to get vaccinated as youth hospitalization rates spike":

https://www.kxan.com/news/education...cinated-as-youth-hospitalization-rates-spike/
We were avg over 3 million/day, now we're a little over 1.5 million, with most being 2nd doses, vaccinations are falling fast.
 

mr merlin

EOG Master
here's the rate of people initiating their vaccination - falling like a rock. keep in mind the orange avg bar ends 4-5 days ago(incomplete data), the current rate is no doubt a fair bit lower.

1620927764245.png
 
Cases falling bigtime in my beloved SD , below 100 most every day - vaccinations there have slowed to a crawl, so far in the first 4 days of the week they've vaccinated less than 1100 new people, they're basically finished vaccinating - will gain less than 1%/month.

Is that why cases are dropping?

It takes a weeks or months before the vaccine fully kicks in after a person is jabbed. Its benefits aren't there immediately.

Whether or not cases drop or rise is dependent on (1) all the factors moving to increase infections vs (2) all the factors moving to decrease infections. And which of the two prevails.

Even a 1% increase in vaccinations will work towards reducing infections.

More significant than mere infections, especially when the most vulnerable are the more vaccinated, is hospitalizations, ICUs, suffering, deaths & "long covid" (longterm negative health problems in survivors of covid19 infections).
 

mr merlin

EOG Master
The only question is how low vaccinations go - some people will be getting vaccinated in july, aug,. etc, do the numbers bottom at a level where we're still making at least some progress(such as 200k/day), at that rate we'd still be adding 6 million/month?
 

mr merlin

EOG Master
It takes a weeks or months before the vaccine fully kicks in after a person is jabbed. Its benefits aren't there immediately.

Whether or not cases drop or rise is dependent on (1) all the factors moving to increase infections vs (2) all the factors moving to decrease infections. And which of the two prevails.

Even a 1% increase in vaccinations will work towards reducing infections.

More significant than mere infections, especially when the most vulnerable are the more vaccinated, is hospitalizations, ICUs, suffering, deaths & "long covid" (longterm negative health problems in survivors of covid19 infections).
My earlier point is that the spring bump was not caused by variants, etc, but by the vaccinations - that somehow getting vaccinated causes a temporary reduced immunity which leads to more cases in the short term, not less. basically what's happened to the Yankees.

Now that 90% + of everyone who's going to get the shot has had the shot, that temporary bump is fading fast, that's the theory.
 
My earlier point is that the spring bump was not caused by variants, etc, but by the vaccinations - that somehow getting vaccinated causes a temporary reduced immunity which leads to more cases in the short term, not less. basically what's happened to the Yankees.

Now that 90% + of everyone who's going to get the shot has had the shot, that temporary bump is fading fast, that's the theory.

What evidence can you present re "getting vaccinated causes a temporary reduced immunity", how long that allegedly lasts & by what percentage the immunity is allegedly reduced?

Another theory is that getting vaccinated leads to more irresponsible behaviour which is a factor toward increased infections. I've seen a few people posting online thinking they can now go party & "return to normal" pre covid lifestyles just because they've been jabbed.
 

mr merlin

EOG Master
What evidence can you present re "getting vaccinated causes a temporary reduced immunity", how long that allegedly lasts & by what percentage the immunity is allegedly reduced?

Another theory is that getting vaccinated leads to more irresponsible behaviour which is a factor toward increased infections. I've seen a few people posting online thinking they can now go party & "return to normal" pre covid lifestyles just because they've been jabbed.
the evidence is what's happened everywhere vaccinations begin - a spurt of cases.

I dont know where you live but where I am (MN) things have been almost normal for a long time, pre covid is now the norm not the exception.
 
the evidence is what's happened everywhere vaccinations begin - a spurt of cases.

If those just vaccinated today (who have no protection from that vaccine) immediately start running out & partying, then infections will increase of a result of that activity.

IOW covidiocy, as always, leads to more infections.

I dont know where you live but where I am (MN) things have been almost normal for a long time, pre covid is now the norm not the exception.

I live in a big city on the West Coast of Canada. Masks are required in certain places like grocers, though outdoor dining has plenty of people without them who keep a distance from people at other tables. AFAIK indoor dining at restaurants is presently forbidden, though that may soon change. Things might become mostly normal by the summer.
 
Wear Coast of Canada? Lol

Your opinion doesn't even count

Why not?

The OP & other sources i quote or link or refer to are not, strictly speaking, my "opinion". They are the opinion of those sources & their authors. Do their opinions not count either?

Whether or not i agree or disagree with any of them is another matter entirely.
 

mr merlin

EOG Master
If those just vaccinated today (who have no protection from that vaccine) immediately start running out & partying, then infections will increase of a result of that activity.

IOW covidiocy, as always, leads to more infections.



I live in a big city on the West Coast of Canada. Masks are required in certain places like grocers, though outdoor dining has plenty of people without them who keep a distance from people at other tables. AFAIK indoor dining at restaurants is presently forbidden, though that may soon change. Things might become mostly normal by the summer.
Bars and restaurants are all open here and have been since mid Jan, there's no distancing, no masks inside(except for workers and even that is hit or miss), it's all theater, some casinos require a mask, some dont, other than that everything is open. And my state is technically tough for the region, we still have a mask mandate that will end in a month, everything else will end in 2 weeks - the phantom social distancing and limits on large gatherings.
 

TobyTyler

EOG Dedicated
Why not?

The OP & other sources i quote or link or refer to are not, strictly speaking, my "opinion". They are the opinion of those sources & their authors. Do their opinions not count either?

Whether or not i agree or disagree with any of them is another matter entirely.
Just busting balls
 

mr merlin

EOG Master
"Covid: Why has Seychelles seen rising case numbers?


https://www.bbc.com/news/57148348
Pretty much everywhere initiation of vaccination programs lead to a surge in cases, i bet the island had had very little covid previously so they were all vulnerable, whereas in this country 1/3d already had immunity(perhaps 1/2 in many areas) . It's likely our modest march surge was not due to variants, etc, but to the ramp up of vaccinations, we didn't have enough vulnerable people to cause a massive surge.
 
Pretty much everywhere initiation of vaccination programs lead to a surge in cases,.

I've seen no evidence of that.

Though it's possible that many millions of people leaving the safety of their homes to go out in public to vaccination clinics & thereby potentially expose themselves to the virus in others could lead to a significant number of infections.
 
X-files - are you bunkered in or do you go out and about? If it’s the latter, why?


I'm vaccinated.
Wear a KN95 or surgical mask.
Social distance.
Have no reason to think i'm not in good health for my age.
Don't behave as an irresponsible covidiot.
Follow health guidelines.

My risk is therefore quite low.
It's also quite low re the chance of me infecting anyone else.

Go out almost every day. Whether it's to stores to buy something, the dentist, health clinic, hospital, optometrist, pharmacy, bank appointments, etc.
Nothing much different than what i did precovid19.

...............
 

mr merlin

EOG Master
According to who? Medical or health experts? Or some amateur on Twit-ter?

The chart says May 29/21 which hasn't even arrived yet.

Also read the comments, e.g. no Rhino in the UK since 2019.
So you dont like my experts huh? LOL

Well i dont like your experts, so I'm figuratively thumbing my nose at you!
 
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