Circa Survivor begins with an overlay of $1,920,000.00!

ComptrBob

EOG Master
Going into SNF, Circa Survivor Equity per entry is now around $8,608.32, 535 have advanced, 490 eliminated + 1 No Pick, 162 entries (LAR 11, PIT 151) pending.
 
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mrbowling300

EOG Dedicated
Looks like 335 of 2642 entries remain in the draft kings survival pool.

WW are you still alive? My 3 have been eliminated. I partnered up with a client of mine, it was fun, but he is too square for me. If I do this again next year, I'll do it by myself or get involved with Circa. I doubt we will ever see this kind of overlay from Circa again.
 

Woodrow Wilson

EOG Dedicated
I still have one of my 3 DK alive.

I'm also still alive in Circa.

My advice is to NEVER enter any contest with partners.

Since you're in Michigan, why not enter both?

It's also wise to keep your picks in your pocket.

Posting them here only brings out the haters and since it's tough enough to beat the field, that's a distraction you really don't need.
 

Ray Luca

EOG Master
Looks like 335 of 2642 entries remain in the draft kings survival pool.

WW are you still alive? My 3 have been eliminated. I partnered up with a client of mine, it was fun, but he is too square for me. If I do this again next year, I'll do it by myself or get involved with Circa. I doubt we will ever see this kind of overlay from Circa again.

How much was the draft kings entry fee?
 

mrbowling300

EOG Dedicated
I still have one of my 3 DK alive.

I'm also still alive in Circa.

My advice is to NEVER enter any contest with partners.

Since you're in Michigan, why not enter both?

It's also wise to keep your picks in your pocket.

Posting them here only brings out the haters and since it's tough enough to beat the field, that's a distraction you really don't need.
It was more of a social thing, as i'm friends w/ this client away from the office as well. Next time, I'll still enter with the client, but in his account. I will do my own picks. Never made it back to LV after I was there prior to memorial day. Next year for sure.

I agree with picks in your pocket! It is easy for others to bash you when they have put up zero and you have a lot on the line.

I wouldn't even give out my username!

Good luck the rest of the way. When I'm in town, I'll still post the DK pick distribution whenever possible for you.
 

Woodrow Wilson

EOG Dedicated
Other survivor pools I'm involved with lost 15-20%. Do you know how many DK entries were on Balt?

My guess is less than 20% were on Balt in Circa.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Master
wonder how many in Circa took Baltimore? over or under 20%?

Circa: Ravens had 409 available out of 686. There are lots of big fav choices (with avail) this week, Colts,104, Bills,271, Cowboys,686, Bucs,336, Steelers,444, Cardinals,480.

Cowboys and Bills are in the Thanksgiving 3 games, Cards and Colts are Xmas.

20% of the field would be 137.2 and would mean 33.5% of those available. Maybe too high. I'll guess 16% or 110.
 

Woodrow Wilson

EOG Dedicated
I enjoyed that clip. This is going to come down to Detroit and Houston winning the same week. If/when that happens it will nearly clear all the chips from the felt.

The guest Gil said was Joe Peta...there is a entry Joe Beta with 3 remaining so maybe that's him. He has used all his Ariz and Ind.

I'm always curious how many CB believes will finish this thing. I understand it's a moving target, but I'd like to know your current estimate.

I think Gil's 100 remaining at the end of November is too low.
 

Woodrow Wilson

EOG Dedicated
The guest's reaction to Gil's Steelers losing this week prediction tells me he plans to be on the Steelers.

All 3 Joe Peta entries have the Steelers available.
 

mrbowling300

EOG Dedicated
The local survival contest here had 513 entries at $100 per entry. Week 10 started out with 42 entries alive, and 11 were eliminated last night, and 11 more have not yet summited a selection. Personally, if I were running this pool, I would turn this information off until when all selections are due, which is Sunday at 1pm.

Capture.JPG
 

ComptrBob

EOG Master
I'm always curious how many CB believes will finish this thing. I understand it's a moving target, but I'd like to know your current estimate.

I think Gil's 100 remaining at the end of November is too low.

Hard to tell at this point, but I think the #19th and #20th picks will weed out a lot (would guess 10 to 20 left into Week 18). I think Gil's 100 is too low, would correspond to only an average of 61% surviving each pick. I will guess 165 survive by end of November.
 
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ComptrBob

EOG Master
The local survival contest here had 513 entries at $100 per entry. Week 10 started out with 42 entries alive, and 11 were eliminated last night, and 11 more have not yet summited a selection. Personally, if I were running this pool, I would turn this information off until when all selections are due, which is Sunday at 1pm.

Personally I would never enter a survivor contest that allowed picks up to game time. Also I wouldn't enter unless picks are revealed at least several hours before game time.
 

railbird

EOG Master
Looks like 335 of 2642 entries remain in the draft kings survival pool.

WW are you still alive? My 3 have been eliminated. I partnered up with a client of mine, it was fun, but he is too square for me. If I do this again next year, I'll do it by myself or get involved with Circa. I doubt we will ever see this kind of overlay from Circa again.
the william hill college football overlay was the best value
 

ComptrBob

EOG Master
Going into Sunday afternoon games,

Circa Survivor Equity per entry is now around $27,397.26, 172 have advanced, 467 eliminated , 47 entries (AZ 40, GB 1, LAC 5, LAR 1) pending.

If the Cards lose (they are down 23-0 at half), equity will be $33,519.55 Only 4.39% of entries left.
 
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Woodrow Wilson

EOG Dedicated
Two more well known Vegas folks bite the dust. I don't know how Tuley can keep sane paying survivor pools, since he probably bets 95% underdogs.

FEZZIK-2 1. RAVENS PK

VIEW FROM VEGAS-1 20. CARDINALS PK

Forgot this guys real name, but he's in a lot of contests and was a featured handicapper at bettoriq for a time.

ThaGoodPlaya-1 16. STEELERS PK
ThaGoodPlaya-2 13. BUCS PK
ThaGoodPlaya-3 16. STEELERS PK
ThaGoodPlaya-4 16. STEELERS PK
ThaGoodPlaya-5 16. STEELERS PK
 

ComptrBob

EOG Master
Forgot this guys real name, but he's in a lot of contests and was a featured handicapper at bettoriq for a time.

ThaGoodPlaya-1 16. STEELERS PK
ThaGoodPlaya-2 13. BUCS PK
ThaGoodPlaya-3 16. STEELERS PK
ThaGoodPlaya-4 16. STEELERS PK
ThaGoodPlaya-5 16. STEELERS PK

I think its Brandon Wittmeyer, he was the #1 seed in the 2017 Golden Nugget Friday Football Showdown, also known as a tournament poker player.
 

mrbowling300

EOG Dedicated
DINK INC-1 16. STEELERS PK

ERSPORTS-1 16. STEELERS PK

A couple more Vegas well-knowns bounced.

I didn't make it thru without some bruises today, but I'm still alive in both DK and Circa.
I believe the Big Ben covid announcement came out after the Circa deadline. Im sure if that was known before, a number of players would have used something else.
 

Woodrow Wilson

EOG Dedicated
I scanned the sheet and among the remaining 173 or 174 I see 3 players still with 3 entries. There might be another couple, but this is what I notice among the 12 pages.

Dragon 28 (Used all 3 Dallas entries today and lost 3 with AZ today).

Margie (0 TB remaining).

Roll The Iron Dice
 

ComptrBob

EOG Master
I scanned the sheet and among the remaining 173 or 174 I see 3 players still with 3 entries. There might be another couple, but this is what I notice among the 12 pages.

Dragon 28 (Used all 3 Dallas entries today and lost 3 with AZ today).

Margie (0 TB remaining).

Roll The Iron Dice

Yep, I can confirm three entries with 3. Amazing that going into Week 10, one entrant had all 6 alive, 6 with 5 alive, 9 with 4 and 19 with 3 were cut down to only three with 3.

Also I have 17 entries have two alive (trying to double check, Gil Alexander says 18)), 131 singles, 151 individuals total..

Good luck going forward, do you still have multiple entries left?
 
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