Books do it again

wantitall4moi

wantitall4moi

2
GB opened +6. I took it not really thinking about Ben going down, but thinking it had some "value".

BUT lo and behold Ben isn't playing, so line make a "big move" but only to 3.5.

So would who considers that a complete "sucker" move?

Pitt has maybe a 9% less of a chance(overall) to cover/push 6 as they do covering 3.5. 339 games overall out of 3905 have ended in 4 and 5 point differentials, So those numebrs are truly pretty dead.

Basically the books are not making it better for the Pitt bettors, and not that much worsefor the guys who still want to take GB.

Now I wil never lay 3.5 in the NFL, call me supersticious, but basically you bet the dogs blind at 3.5 and show a profit historically.

So I am wondering what people think of that move? Youstill take GB or do you wait and hope you get a -3 and a push possibility and hope Pitt wins by more that that anyways?

IF it goes to 2.5 I will buy half back. If it only goes to 3 there isn't much I can do with it. Since a push is basically the only hedge I will be getting. Meaning I can buy back now at 3.5, hoping it doesn't land on Pitt -3 (where I gain nothing WITH the -3,) and I still lose my original lead on GB. Obviously if I buy at 3.5 and it lands on 3 I lose everything. And that has a higher probablility of happening that landing on 4 and 5 combined.( 3 pt differentials 642/3905 = 16.4% chance)

So basically the books are offering a bunch of worthless numbers, and everyone that took the lead waiting to buy back needs the -3 to even make their +6 have any kind of value at all.

Because in the grand scheme +3.5 isn't that much of a difference (in wins) than +6. The +6 will garner a few pushes, but who cares about pushes? It is barely enough to register a difference. Basically it is about 1%.

Now if I had the ML bet, then I would be in business, but foolish me, I took the spread rather than the number, since I thought it was a little low(+225 when I saw it, and it was +200 pretty quick) for a 6 point dog. By comparison NYJ were +260 as a 6 pt HD.
 
D

Dr. White

EOG Enthusiast
9% of a chance (4,5, push and win on 6) is truly pretty dead?
If you had a 9% chance of dying tomorrow, would you dismiss it as meaningless?
Lets do the math. assume $100 bets. your percentages.
pitt -3.5, gb +6. Out of 100 games, 45 games pitt fails to cover. 45 games gb fails to cover. 9 games end 4 or 5 and both cover. 1 game lands on 6 and pitt covers, gb pushes (not my percentages but will use yours). After 100 games, your expectation 9x200 + 1x100 - 90x10= 1000
Your expectation on your middle is 10% ( 100 games x $100 returns $1000)
Would you please quit WHINING and take joy in your lucky happenstance.
 
wantitall4moi

wantitall4moi

2
I said nothing about specifics and covering, I said the probabilty of it landing on 4 or 5 differential OVERALL is about 9%, That certainly DOESN'T mean I have a 9% chance to middle it. Those percentages are OVERALL.

If what you are saying is true, then people that have 2.5 and 3.5 have a 16% probability of middling it. (642occurances/3932games). We all know that is WAY too high, generally most say it is 10%, I think it is closer to 8%, but I have a lot more databases with a lot more line differentials to look at.

IMO the "true" probability of actually middling that game is less than 1%.

I ran the numbers and they are laughable. Total game pool is 3932games (since 1989)

Games closing at 3.5
4 pt dif 6 games
5 pt dif 5 games
6 pt dif 5 games

Games closing at 4
4 pt dif 6 games
5 pt dif 1 games
6 pt dif 4 games

Games closing at 3
4 pt dif 18 games
5 pt dif 9 games
6 pt dif 21 games

So even if you add up all the results for those three spreads you have about a 1% chance, and it hasn't even gotten to 3 yet.

Obviously this is not all that scientific either, but if you use the closing number and a few other numbers in and around you certainly can get an idea.
 
trytrytry

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
9% is a huge difference!

fortunes are made on 9% edges! i think the move is aobut right for how it predicts the likely outcome of this game. Pitt has a slightly less change of covering. and a higher chance of winning by 4,5 or 6
 
trytrytry

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
trytrytry said:
9% is a huge difference!

fortunes are made on 9% edges! i think the move is aobut right for how it predicts the likely outcome of this game. Pitt has a slightly less change of covering a 6 point spread with charlie batch and it could be a 4 or a 5 or 6 point win.
Click to expand...
 
wantitall4moi

wantitall4moi

2
trytrytry...loklooklook at the times those differentails happen. 5 is as dead a number as you can get. 4 is slightly better, but at that spread margin, not really.

OVERALL is a misnomer, I only used it to show how people think. They THINK they have a 9% chance, but they do not.

Basically it is a classic case of a big lilne move more or less meaning nothing.

What I didn't do however is show the times the games had those spreads...

Total games at those closing spreads(since 1989):


3 598 games
3.5 286 games
4 214 games

So if it stays at 3.5, the "historical probability" (based on the historical results since 1989) there is about a 4% (3.8)chance to hit the middle (4 or 5 point diference) and a 2%(1.7) chance of a push on 6(which I will push anyways). SO factoring in the push is useless at this point since I already have it covered. So anyone that has the +6 still only has about a 4% chance to imporve thier position on GB +6, by taking Pitt -3 OR 3.5.

So the last part of my original post was wrong, as I was figuring a push and not a middle when I said "it doesn't even register".

Obviously if it gets to 3, my "advantage" doesn't really change because I still push on a 3 point win by Pitt, and lose the GB play. If it goes to 2.5 then the "advantage" is a little more easilly seen, since the 3 will give me a win rather than a push, and I also get the middle.

So is 4% worth trying to buy back on? I say no. Even though you have 2 numbers to work with.

But a lot of people see it and they think they have a big advantage. Also if it goes to 3, More andmore guys will be buying it that way. Not even realizing that the ONLY number that will make that play "logical" is if Pitt wins by 3, and that doesn't even give them a win.

GBay Backers have the advantage, because they already know what they are getting. they took the +6 in a "best case" scenario. So buying off it for less than -2.5 on Pitt is bad gambling IMO. Because they had an opinin on GBay to start with, which only strengthened witht he injury. And since they aren't gainin much advanatge the way theline moved, they might as well keep it.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top