They already have Indy at -6 when I see most books at 4 1/2 or 5.
That's why I love the lines at Bodog. Too bad they dual line me though :+signs8-1
That's why I love the lines at Bodog. Too bad they dual line me though :+signs8-1
Bodog must really have a lot of Colts fans or a bunch of squares
- Thread starter Truthteller
- Start date
Almost no difference between 4.5 and 6. The push actually has more probability of happening than the game landing on 5. OVERALL, (all games probability of landing on those numbers based on past results) it is about 8.6%.
In games lined at all those numbers (from 4.5 to 6) games landing on 5 and 6 total 34. So you have a probabilty of 34{parameter range}/3960{total games}, so basically a .8% chance of geting a negative result. If you eliminate the push on 6 (which would make you a LOSER rather than a NON winner) you only have 23 games , so that is about a .58% chance of simply losing.
Sometimes a push is ust as good as a win I guess, but when you look at those spreads and the actual probability of it hitting it is very miniscule. Obviously if they are available everywhere for similar juice you take the "better" number, but a book offering that number is not really putting themselves at a high risk.
In games lined at all those numbers (from 4.5 to 6) games landing on 5 and 6 total 34. So you have a probabilty of 34{parameter range}/3960{total games}, so basically a .8% chance of geting a negative result. If you eliminate the push on 6 (which would make you a LOSER rather than a NON winner) you only have 23 games , so that is about a .58% chance of simply losing.
Sometimes a push is ust as good as a win I guess, but when you look at those spreads and the actual probability of it hitting it is very miniscule. Obviously if they are available everywhere for similar juice you take the "better" number, but a book offering that number is not really putting themselves at a high risk.