Best bets or fades for the 2021 NHL Stanley Cup playoffs

"Best bets for the 2021 NHL Stanley Cup playoffs


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Playoff hockey is back! The first-round matchups for the 2021 Stanley Cup playoffs are set, which means betting options galore.
Here are some of the bets we like throughout the postseason. Our panel includes ESPN betting analyst Doug Kezirian and ESPN NHL writers Emily Kaplan and Greg Wyshynski.
Check out the entire NHL playoff schedule here.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill unless otherwise noted.

Boston Bruins (-145) over Washington Capitals in series

Kezirian: The Bruins begin the playoffs facing perhaps the one team that can match their physicality. However, the Caps are dealing with the injury bug, and with Game 1 on Saturday, the status of star forwards Alex Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov is still unknown. The Bruins' top "perfection" line already poses a serious matchup challenge, and if Washington's top guys miss multiple games, Boston has a chance to cruise. Washington's stingy defense might limit the Bruins, but now with a second line featuring midseason acquisition Taylor Hall, the Bruins ultimately should have too much firepower.
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Bruins (+145) -1.5 games over Capitals in series

Wyshynski: This series feels like two ships passing in the night. Since the Hall trade, the Bruins have lost twice in regulation when they've iced a full lineup. Hall gave them a legitimate second scoring line, something they've lacked in recent postseasons. Combine that with Tuukka Rask playing in a non-bubble postseason -- where he has a career .926 save percentage -- and it spells trouble for a Capitals team that has literally limped down the stretch. Ovechkin and T.J. Oshie missed time due to injury. Kuznetsov and goalie Ilya Samsonov were on the COVID-related absences list. Rookie goalie Vitek Vanecek has played well beyond the minutes the Caps intended for him this season. The Capitals had a negative goal differential against Boston this season. It's a bad matchup for them.
Tampa Bay Lightning (-140) over Florida Panthers in series


Kezirian: The reigning Stanley Cup champions begin their title defense with an in-state series against the Florida Panthers. These two teams led the league in penalty minutes, but the Lightning are poised to actually take advantage of that with the power play clicking at 22.3%. Plus, the Lightning are adding their best player, Nikita Kucherov, who missed the entire regular season but is slated to play the opener.
Tampa Bay, despite some regular-season struggles, is still a force. The Lightning have a Vezina-winning goalie in net, four lines that can score with anybody, and a solid defense led by Norris Trophy-winning defenseman Victor Hedman. Florida is obviously solid, but Tampa Bay is just too deep.
 
Carolina Hurricanes ( -125) -1.5 games over Nashville Predators in series


Kezirian: This is likely the first round's biggest mismatch. The Hurricanes have excelled all season long, and now behind their top line led by Sebastian Aho, the Canes have some depth scoring with players like Vincent Trocheck and Andrei Svechnikov producing at a high clip offensively this season. The defense gets it done both ways, led by Dougie Hamilton, who has 42 points on the season and is one of the top shutdown defenders in the league to top it off.
Things already look bleak for Nashville at 5-on-5, but special teams is where Carolina can run away with the series. The Canes rank in the top three in both power play and penalty kill percentage, while Nashville is in the bottom third of the league. It would take a massive effort from Predators goalie Juuse Saros for Nashville to keep this series close. Carolina is just too much and should roll. Rather than lay the -250 on the series price, I will spot the Preds a game and lay the 1.5 games. I think the Hurricanes handle their business in six games or less.
Winnipeg Jets (+160) over Edmonton Oilers in series


Wyshynski: There's only one series upset on the board that I like and it's this one, provided forward Nikolaj Ehlers is back for the Jets. Sure, there are other things that make you side-eye this matchup for Winnipeg -- goalie Connor Hellebuyck, a healthy Mark Scheifele, center Pierre-Luc Dubois following up a near star-making performance while with Columbus in the postseason bubble last summer. But Ehlers had 46 points in 47 games before his injury. The Jets averaged 3.15 goals per game with him and 2.25 goals per game since he left the lineup. If he's back, this series is on upset watch -- even with Connor McDavid playing like a human cheat code this season.
Auston Matthews (11-1) to win Conn Smythe


Wyshynski: I hit with Victor Hedman as the Conn Smythe winner in last postseason's Stanley Cup picks. Logic dictated that the Lightning were going to win the Stanley Cup, and that if they did, Hedman would be the logical choice based on both offensive production and perceived importance to their championship run. There's nothing logical about selecting the Toronto Maple Leafs to win the Stanley Cup. They haven't done so since 1967. They haven't won a playoff series since 2004. But if they were to win, then one assumes Matthews would have played a major role in that run. If he leads the postseason in goals -- and he's the betting favorite (+600) to do so -- and the Leafs win the Cup, the MVP should be his.
Semyon Varlamov (75-1) to win Conn Smythe



Kaplan: The Islanders are not the sexiest team to pick for a long run. They won't wow you with their offense. However, there is total defensive buy-in under coach Barry Trotz, and they can grind out wins -- and wear teams down in a long series. They did it last year, as Varlamov posted a .921 save percentage and two shutouts over 19 starts in last year's playoff run to the Eastern Conference finals.
If the Isles make it to the Stanley Cup Final this year, expect a lot of low-scoring games. Mat Barzal or Brock Nelson could put up decent numbers, but New York's scoring is typically spread out. That makes their No. 1 goalie an easy selection for Finals MVP.
Capitals (14-1) to win Stanley Cup

Kaplan: These are great odds. There might be some trepidation about the Caps, considering a few of their key players -- John Carlson, Ovechkin, Oshie -- were a bit banged up toward the end of the regular season. They have two inexperienced goaltenders, which also gives some pause. But, as coach Peter Laviolette reminded me earlier in the year, "I've won with young goaltenders before." The Caps are supremely motivated. They hired Laviolette in the offseason to instill urgency with the group, and they've all bought in. Worth taking a flier here."
 
Series Wager:

Boston -1½ games +114 over WASHINGTON

7:15 PM EST. Look at the metrics and this series looks like a close one, as these two were almost identical in Expected Goals Per 60, High Danger Scoring Chances and High Danger Chances allowed. That’s nice, it really is but those metrics cover the entire 56-game schedule and therefore doesn’t take into consideration current form. In that respect, it’s not close and it’s not in Washington's favor.

Since the trade deadline and with Taylor Hall, Curtis Lazar and Mike Reilly in the lineup, the Bruins have been nothing short of elite. Over that span, no team in the NHL had a better expected goals rate than Boston. The B’s took a bottom-five offense and turned it into a top-10 unit without sacrificing anything on defense. Since April 1, a span of six weeks covering 20 games, the Bruins rank 3rd in the NHL In puck possession time in the offensive end during five-on-five play while the Caps rank 13th over that same span.

Then we have the intangibles. Over the past few weeks, the Caps have dealt with a number of injuries to key players like Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson, T.J. Oshie, Nicklas Backstrom, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Ilya Samsonov and Justin Schultz. A cohort of the banged-up Caps have returned but in what figures to be a physical series, these nagging injuries could easily be triggered into something worse. The Bruins are healthy while the Caps are sorta healthy.

Finally, what decides the outcome of NHL games more than anything else? Puck possession time? No. Shots on net or scoring chances? No. What decides games more than anything is goaltending and even if we were to concede that the skaters on both these teams make this series a tossup, even though we don’t believe that for a second), one must give the Bruins a significant edge in goal.

Ilya Samsonov entered the season as the starter but dude underwhelmed with a .902 save percentage and a -6.67 Goals Saved Above Expectation (GSAx) in 19 games. Peter Laviolette’s other option is playing rookie Vitek Vanecek. He played admirably in 37 games, but his numbers were below average (.907 SV%, -8.45 GSAx), and this will be his first go-round in the postseason. Said one scout,” “Huge advantage Bruins. I’m not disrespecting Washington. But there’s something off here. Maybe their best goalie is Craig Anderson. Seriously. Maybe they should have played him more.” Meanwhile, proven playoff goaltender Tuukka Rask and sensational rookie Jeremy Swayman give Boston stable, reliable goaltending that the Caps cannot match.

While most “experts” see this as a close series, we do not and we might even sprinkle a bit on the 4-game sweep at 10-1 but for record keeping purposes, give us the B’s in six or less and we’ll see you at the cashier's real soon.

https://www.sportswagers.ca/nhl/picks.php?pid=25316


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Someone's opinion, FYI & consideration.
Fade or follow or lay off. BOL whatever you do.


"Past Performance Is No Guarantee of Future Results"
"Past success is no guarantee of future success"
 
Here's one Winky agreed with. Though maybe now he'll have to do a 180 on his own opinion, & fade himself, lol:

Series Wager: NY Islanders +125

12:08 PM EST. We’re pretty sure we’re not the only ones that looked at the lines when they came out and thought that Pittsburgh was a “short” favorite. Pittsburgh was elite down the stretch, they have home-ice advantage and they took six of eight games against the Islanders in the season series while the Isles have dropped four of their last five games and have just five wins over their final 14 games.

The Penguins closed the year with a 18-5-2 record over their final 25 games. That was tops in the entire league, tied with Colorado. During that final stretch, the Penguins won 17 games in regulation, posted a +27 goal differential and scored 3.88 goals per game. Those numbers paint a picture of dominance while the Islanders were losing game after game. Current form or recency bias favors Pittsburgh to a massive degree. We once again have to question why Pittsburgh opened as a -125 favorite when teams like Toronto opened at -210 or Carolina at -185 or Colorado at -250? The efficient market is also eating up the Penguins, which is of course no surprise. Who doesn’t like the Penguins?

First, when we see a number that “doesn’t look right”, it raises red flags. Second, it’s not all peaches and cream regarding the Penguins stretch dominance. It’s worth noting that 12 of Pittsburgh’s final 25 games came against the Devils and Sabres. Pittsburgh did indeed win a lot of games down the stretch, but the underlying metrics tell us they were sloppy and beatable and just happened to bury a punch of pucks while the opposition, who had just as many high danger scoring chances, did not. That extreme puck luck may not hold up here. You see, according to MoneyPuck, the Islanders had the highest expected save percentage in the NHL this season. In other words, no team made life easier on their goaltender than the Isles did. That bodes well for Semyon Varlamov who had the third-best save percentage (.930) and sixth-best Goals Saved Above Expectation (+9.55) among goalies who played in at least 10 games in 2021.

Through the first 38 games of the season the Islanders had the fourth-best 5-on-5 goal differential, the third-best expected goals rate and led the NHL in high-danger scoring chance percentage. In other words, the Isles were a force to be reckoned with at even strength most of the year and then their puck luck took a turn for the worse. They scored on just 6.1% of their shots at even strength in their last 17 games. That was the worst mark in the NHL during that stretch, so some positive regression wouldn’t be surprising for a deep offense that had six players that scored at least 12 goals this season. The Islanders are rightly known as a defensive power, but their stinginess often causes folks to overlook a well-balanced, deep forward group that created the sixth-most high-danger scoring chances at 5-on-5 this season. So, you think the Penguins look like a short favorite? Think again, as they’re in very tough and their dominance was highly luck-driven that did not expose their flawed play. We’re therefore making two bets. Islanders to win Game 1 and Islanders in the Series.

https://www.sportswagers.ca/nhl/picks.php?pid=25320
 
Carolina -½ +121 over NASHVILLE

7:08 PM EST. Regulation only. The Predators are a team that’s been about as average as any team could be in a season. However, an idea of average like this misses their absurd positive shift in both shooting and save % between the first and second half of the season. That was the only reason these dregs edged out the Stars and grabbed 4th in the Central. The Preds’ skater group in the past has been one of the best, supported by a consistently excellent top-4 D group but they have also been on a three-year decline. This season they’ve been much more unstable. Still decent, their D corps has taken a step back, while their forwards have been pure garbage. Their forward group lacks a true elite talent, and is likely the worst in the playoffs this year and perhaps the entire league. Goaltending proved to be their one saving grace and is the only reason they don’t get destroyed.

The Hurricanes are one of the best three teams in the playoffs. Possibly the best top-4 D in the league to go along with one of the more underrated forward groups in the league, including a revitalized Nino Niederreiter, young darlings Sebastian Aho and Evgeny Svechnikov, and a very consistent Vincent Trocheck. It doesn’t stop there, however, as Carolina’s third line is superior to Nashville’s top line. Not unlike how they’ve played over the last few years, their team EV numbers are still among the best (both shot attempts and xG). This season’s Hurricanes team, however, has found a gem in Alex Nedeljkovic in net. The first two games of this series was a massacre. It looked like one of the biggest playoff mismatches in the history of playoff series and now the supremely superior ‘Canes have an opportunity to go in for the kill against a wounded prey and take a commanding 3-0 lead in the series. How can that not happen? Win or lose, this is a steal of a price on Carolina to win in regulation, as this series is like a bunch of 16-year-olds playing their 11-year-old little brothers in a game of road hockey. The Nashville Predators have two games left this year and then they’ll thankfully be walking out of Bridgestone Arena for the final time in their blue suede shoes.

https://www.sportswagers.ca/nhl/picks.php?pid=25347
 
Montreal +169 over Toronto

7:05 PM EST. OT included. We are fully aware that we are zig-zagging here and while that is one of the cardinal sins of sports betting that we often highlight in this space, there are exceptions to every rule and we’ll make a rare one here. With that out of the way, let us offer up the Canadiens, who are taking back such a ridiculous number today that it cannot be ignored. Sure the Maple Leafs were spotting a bigger price in Game 1, but that was with John Tavares in the lineup and before their heads started spinning, all due respect to JT.

While games of the past do not predict the future, we could not help but think back to the Leafs' series with Boston in 2018 and 2019. You may remember that Toronto center Nazem Kadri was suspended in both, and the Leafs would go on to lose both with Kadri on the sidelines when they were in full control with him in the lineup. 2019 was particularly painful, as the Leafs had full command of the series until Kadri was ejected for the remainder of the series JT is the best second line center in the league and his absence cannot be understated. With JT out, coach Sheldon Keefe was leaning hard on his top line and one has to wonder if it is reasonable for Auston Matthews and company to shoulder that load. Or for Nick Foligno to stand in place of the Leafs’ captain, as he did in practice prior to Game 2. One only has to point to the Jets and their masterclass on how to shut down a superstar center to see what happens when a top line gets neutered.

All year, the North Division was the Wild West with goals coming in bunches, but these are the playoffs and this is a different game. First, you need a goalie and while Carey Price was lacklustre for most of the season, he flicked that switch that great goalies seem to find when the stakes are the highest. Who do the Leafs have to answer Price save for save? Jack Campbell who is now 0-1 in his playoff career and gave up the game winning short-handed goal.

We don't envy Campbell's predicament. After all, this is his first rodeo in The Center of the Universe and he must carry the weight of a starved hockey nation that has not tasted even the faintest of playoff success in nearly 20 years. A Game 1 loss, even by a slim 2-1 margin now has the masses saying "I told you so." If winning hockey games came down to just luck and skill, surely the Leafs would have won a series sometime since 2004, but the longer that streak goes, the harder it seems to overcome. When your fanbase and the media are on the edge of their seats waiting for doomsday, that has to weigh on a team. A massive seed of doubt has been planted once again. It's hard to explain but that black cloud can hang over a team. Just look at the Red Sox or Cubs before their curse-busting championships. How many times did you read or hear about Bill Buckner or that fucking goat? Are the Leafs cursed? It wouldn't be the first time. Rather than go on, we'll leave you with a lyric from the great Gord Downie. Enjoy the game.

"Bill Barilko disappeared that summer, He was on a fishing trip, The last goal he ever scored, Won the Leafs the cup, They didn't win another till 1962, the year he was discovered"

https://www.sportswagers.ca/nhl/picks.php?pid=25356


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Series wager posted before May 29, before Game 1

8:08 PM EST. NY Islanders +215 over Boston

The Bruins beat the Caps in five games after losing Game 1 and once again, that’s all the market sees. The market reacts to results, which is great because it keeps providing us with opportunities like this. What the market doesn’t see is that Boston could have been swept in four games by a Washington squad that was banged up, played their No. 3 goaltender for the first half of the series and were without one of their best centers for half the contest as well. That’s right folks, Boston could have lost four straight, as they lost Game 1 and Games 2, 3 & 4 went into OT. One bounce in each game and we’d be talking about a pick-em series between the Isles and Caps.

A team can only beat the team in front of it, but there’s no denying the B’s had a light run into the tournament with eight of their last 17 games coming against the Devils and Sabres and then they just beat the easiest Round 1 opponent in this year’s playoffs.

The narrative coming out of the Islanders' victory over the Penguins is that New York was gifted the series by Penguins goaltender Jarry, who skated to a -6.72 GSAx in the series. While it’s true that even bad-not-terrible goaltending from Jarry would have made that series a different story, part of the Islanders’ identity is to win the goaltending battle. It’s definitely not out of the question that Ilya Sorokin can out-perform Tuukka Rask over the next two weeks Overall, the Islanders outscored the Penguins, 18-12, at 5-on-5 but lost the expected goals battle, 13.46 to 11.22. Those numbers provide further evidence that goaltending was the difference, but to say the Penguins dominated the entire series but for the goaltending is a bit of a stretch but it’s also one the market is buying and embracing.

With a strong will and plenty of well-drilled, defensively-responsible forwards, the Islanders are not an easy puzzle for any team to figure out. Just expecting Boston’s top six to dominate from puck drop to the final whistle underrates one of the Islanders biggest strengths. Furthermore, we’d take the Islanders bottom six of Boston’s bottom six forwards 100% of the time.

Let’s put all the fodder aside and focus on the price, which often dictates the play. In a best-of-seven series in a sport as luck-driven as hockey game outcomes are, there is an argument to be made that a team’s statistical profile becomes less important.

The Islanders are getting no credit yet time and time again, they have found a way to come up big when the going gets tough under head coach Barry Trotz. Since Trotz left Washington, the Caps have not won a single playoff series while the Isles have now won four of their six best-of-seven series under Trotz. Coincidence? We think not. It’s no secret that the market, media and fans have a tough time figuring out how the Islanders achieve success, but that doesn’t mean their achievements should just be chalked up to witchcraft.

The Bruins deserve to be favored here but we have to trust that the Islanders have a better than 34% chance of winning the series and better than a 38% chance to win individual games in Boston. We’ll therefore start off with a bet on the Islanders to win Game 1 and to win the Series at incredibly inflated prices.

https://www.sportswagers.ca/nhl/picks.php?pid=25395
 
I'm even more shocked by the game 1 lines. Bos around -180 while Avs are -160s. VGK gets one day off a tough series win, Isles are rested. Definitely agreeing that Bruins are getting quite overrated at the moment.
 
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