100 race tracking thread inspired by Jeff Jones....

[scrimmage]

JJ gets on horseplayers for not quantifying their results,well not in this thread.
Here goes:
100 races will be played 1 horse per,unit size based on $2. Win and $2. Place wagers,the theoretical break even bankroll point is therefore $400.[100 x2 x2].
Picks/results will be updated regularly and a current accounting maintained.
First selection will be made on Friday September 7th,and this will continue until the 100 bet target is reached.

 

[scrimmage]

Re: 100 race tracking thread inspired by Jeff Jones....

9/7/2012

Calder Race Track:

R1-#4 Indian Event-drops a notch off 4th in debut....

R6-#1 City Babe-firster flashed speed in works,ready/steady for debut

R7-#4 Silver Sashay-first time starter goes straight to winners circle?

Arlington Park:

R2-#5 Richards Tune-hood helps him focus

R4-#5 Admired-well schooled by trainer Proctor since his last 4th place finish

Woodbine:

R2-#6 Whisper Please-drops out of a MSW and gets Lasix

Fairplex:

R2-#1 Mindella-drops a notch,good works Cheryl needs to bust him out of the gate early,
she can do that

R4-#2 Omar-drops slightly and goes to dirt which he could prefer based on his Santa Anita works

That's it for today....

 

[scrimmage]

Re: 100 race tracking thread inspired by Jeff Jones....

Jeff can't chuckle yet:
Through 7 starts [CRC R7-#4 Silver Sashay scratched] the totals are:


7 races -1W-3P
$28.00 out $34.60 in YTD:+$6.60
Next block off the chip's coming:

 

[scrimmage]

Re: 100 race tracking thread inspired by Jeff Jones....

9/8/2012

Belmont Park:

Like 3 today....

R1-#5 Bad Hombre-quick work after good finish first out

R3-#3 Air Support-rider switch to Johnny V.+ works point him out

R9-#2 Renzo Bertoni-Joel R,blinkers+softer comp gets him there

Good Luck....

 

[scrimmage]

Re: 100 race tracking thread inspired by Jeff Jones....

YTD:
10 races-2W-4P,
$40.00 out/$42.40 in +2.40

Selections 9/9/2012:

Woodbine:

R1-#4 Hard Secret-1st time Lasix,jockey change shortens up after showing speed

R2-#2 More Zip-Lasix,class drop,good works for return

R4-#9 Well Executed-bounces back from 2nd start wide to nowhere trip

Arlington:

R9-#8 Catafire-2 sharp mid August gate works point him out,ready to....

Louisiana Downs:

R5-#5 Meghan Claire-well prepped has top rider

R8-#2 Rain Cloud-tightened up at 5F in return may surprise on the stretchout at a big price

R10-#6 Royal Friend-blinkers on rider switch stretches out for 2nd start

Fairplex:

R1-#2 Val Swift Bird-works have gotten tighter as the race got closer

R5-#8 JM's Golden Legay-needs a stalking trip behind the speed

R7-#8 Beau Royale-lightly raced can score again

 

[scrimmage]

Re: 100 race tracking thread inspired by Jeff Jones....

Adding 2 to the 9/9/2012 picks to replace late scratches at Woodbine[R4-#9 Well Executed]and
Fairplex[R1-#1 Val Swift Bird]

Arlington:

R7-#4 Faptitude- working well for trainer Peitz who's profitable on the 60 day + layoffs

Fairplex:

R6-#1 Kit Kat Kitty-slight class drop 3rd off the long layoff and back on dirt

Will update results later....

 

[scrimmage]

Re: 100 race tracking thread inspired by Jeff Jones....

Update
Thru 9/9 YTD:
20 races-4W-6P,
$80.00 out/$72.80 in -$7.20

Back Monday 9/10 with more....

 

[scrimmage]

Re: 100 race tracking thread inspired by Jeff Jones....

Selections 9/10/2012

Parx Racing:

R3-#4 RidetheSilverTrain-2nd off the claim for high% trainer drops from a wide trip starter cap
into a softer spot and gets new rider

R8-#4 Pluracity-likes this track and condition 7 year olds form is coming around again

R9-#7 Five Star Momma-continues her forward progress last easy win points her out

R10-#4 Private Casanova-drops to the bottom off some erratic move trips good value price to
take a chance here in a blank field of runners

Delaware Park:

R3-#6 Kingofthe HighCees-finally broke through in maiden claiming score last time a well
timed ride can make him a repeater

R4-#6 WishfulThinkingGirl-realistically spotted for 2nd start off a win nice spacing between
starts and works

R5-#5 Tippie Tap-best current form and fits well here

R7-#6 Cars and Trucks-won a 32,000 claimer at Monmouth 2 back drops into an optional 16
here but runs without a tag down the road here

Kentucky Downs:

R4-#9 Strike The Note-B Hernadez gave him a tour of Hoosier Park in first start,gets the money
today on turf

R6-#1 Jesse Stone-caught mud 1st out at Ellis,3works since can go better on turf,tricky post
though in larger field

R7-#5 Shun-hasn't run since decisive Maiden win a year ago training well for barn that gets
them ready

R8-#6 Megnog-lightly raced filly gets a class drop into a NW2 lifetime 20 claimer she can break
through this condition now

 

[scrimmage]

Re: 100 race tracking thread inspired by Jeff Jones....

Realized a great Monday with 4 win and 8 place bets cashed,$48.00 wagered/$81.00 returned=
a $33.00 profit.

Update thru 9/10
YTD now stands at:
32 races- 8W-14P
$128.00 bet/$153.80 returned= +$25.80

Note no posted plays for tomorrow,will return with some opinions here on Wednesday 9/12 for a
few races from Belmont and Woodbine....

 

[dinkenson]

Re: 100 race tracking thread inspired by Jeff Jones....

do you have a hidden agenda ??....just kidding...

 

[scrimmage]

Re: 100 race tracking thread inspired by Jeff Jones....

do you have a hidden agenda ??....just kidding...

Everyone has something pushing their personal button.
Glad you found your way here to witness an exercise in focus/futility to reach a target within a
limited set of chances to.
Horseplayers don't track themselves as much as other gamblers do,maybe we don't want to
know....it's a small effort to find out.....

 

[scrimmage]

Re: 100 race tracking thread inspired by Jeff Jones....

No time for extended write ups,all the runners have valid reasons for being picked though.
As usual results will be based on $2 Win-$2 Place units.

Selections 9/12/2012

Belmont:

R2-#1 Distorted Dream

R3-#3 Classic R and B

R5-#6 Hard Enough

R6-#4 Leilani's Ticket

R7-#7 Fizzano

Woodbine:

R2-#2 Silent Serenity

R3-#1 I Will If You Will

R4-#2 Silver Hoofbeats

R7-#9 Bridgetown Harbor

 

[scrimmage]

Re: 100 race tracking thread inspired by Jeff Jones....

Bad Wednesday,led off both tracks with a winner and then no follow through at all....
Lost $20.40 for the day,still 59 races left to get on a roll and finish strong.

Update thru 9/12
YTD now stands at:
41 races- 10W-16P
$164.00 bet/$169.40 returned= +$5.40

Back here with some more tomorrow....

 

[scrimmage]

Re: 100 race tracking thread inspired by Jeff Jones....

Lots to like today lets see how many come through....

Selections 9/13/2012

Laurel Park:

R4-#1 Connemara Coast-first time starter showed some zip in works over the track

R5-#5 Tell Me Everything-lightly raced well bred 3yo comes back 2nd off a layoff trainer Motion
had her working regularly at Fairhills toward this spot

R6-#6 Sun Dance Moon-drops ships blinkers on rider change realistic level to run him at now

R7-#2 Wicked Jazz- seems outclassed here but trainer Boniface excels with turf runners 18
furlongs worth of works in preparation and is worth a stab in this large field

R8- #2 Hildegarde- tuned up in last at Delaware Corales/Karamanos combo sneaky good

R9- #9 Saints Preserve Us- came to Laurel from training center 8/9 and ripped off a good work
big price spec only not a take the rubber band off the bankroll play

Arllington Park:

R1-#1 Rain Ray- class drop rider sticks can get a closing trip behind a number of pacesetters

R2- #2 Stone Cold Wild- forms been muddied trained on poly at Kee ran on dirt and turf drops
into a Mdn claimer Florent Geroux hops aboard

R4-#2 Smiling Gambler- honest runner offers value in a small field

R6-#4 Sword and Shield- expect a change of tactics from last race stallks here may find the
winners circle

R7-#6 Taty's Gold- moving up the class ladder lately barn's been shopping for a race to run her

Louisiana Downs:

R2- #3 Catherine's Lady- form cycle suggests she could run well today

R3- #7 Cagun Show Girl- wins her first dance or does she have two left feet

R4- #7 Fast Time Streaker- moves up off the claim new trainer jockey reap the tote dividends
quickly

R6- #2 Loyola Flyer- debuts for high % connections can take off or land off the board

R8- #6 Live to Run- ran ok at Evangeline on dirt switches surfaces track stretches out in 2nd
start rider back too

R10- #3 Byars Angel- 4yo been training steadily since June for her first try realistic chance to
upset a bunch who've not shown much

Will update results and totals sometime after the last race runs....

 

[John Kelly]

Re: 100 race tracking thread inspired by Jeff Jones....

Good luck, scrimmage.

:cheers

 

[scrimmage]

Re: 100 race tracking thread inspired by Jeff Jones....

9/13 late change:

Louisiana Downs
R6-#2 Loyola Flyer has been SCRATCHED

So far 16 left still running today. As usual all horses are scored on a $2W-$2P unit size....

 

[scrimmage]

Re: 100 race tracking thread inspired by Jeff Jones....

No alibis,a total crash and burn with only 1 winner today,if only the horses ran to their write-ups.
Have to finish what I started though,and take the bad with the good....

Update thru 9/13
YTD now stands at:
57 races- 11W-18P
$228.00bet/$190.60 returned= -$37.40

43 races left to get in the black.Will the train wreck continue,or can this thread get back on the
right track?Stay tuned....

 

[scrimmage]

Re: 100 race tracking thread inspired by Jeff Jones....

For better,or worse here's to Fridays picks:cheers....

Selections 9/14/2012

Belmont:

R3-#1 Hey Babe- moves up off a win working well

R4-#4 Run to Class- price firster

R5-#1 I Bet Toni Knows- RR+JRV+Toni=stakes win

R9-#3 Princess Maura- showed speed at the spa been pointing for this race

Woodbine:

R3-#7 Kid Canuck- drops a notch off an even effort

R4-#3 Here Comes Blue- lots of green if he wins

R5-#13 Simon's Girl- tries hard whcih is more than most of this field does

R7-#5 Theatrical Affair- ready to break through and win

R9-#2 On We Go- 3rd off a layoff 3 works say ready to fire today
Laurel:

R5-#3 Seattle Prospect- broke maiden in 2011 under same basic conditions

R7-#4 Hidden Ball Trick- lightly raced returnee gets out of this condition

R9-#8 Nastar Medallist-working well for return

Louisiana Downs:

R1-#3 Tough Irish Angel- fast in the morning gets top rider for debut

R3-#3 All Time- in fine form trainer confidently moves her up in class again

R10-#6 Combatlan- ran ok closing 3rd last now stretches out

 

[scrimmage]

Re: 100 race tracking thread inspired by Jeff Jones....

Embarrasing,deep in the red....

Update thru 9/14
YTD now stands at:
72 races- 13W- 21P
$288.00 bet/$229.00 returned= -$59.00

Hmmm___-less races/tracks might be the answer....

 

[scrimmage]

Re: 100 race tracking thread inspired by Jeff Jones....

Short slate Saturday....

Selections 9/15/2012

Belmont:

R1-#9 Secretive- gamely chased a clear leader good learning experience

R4-#9 Verde Mont- finally puts it all together

R5-#8 Tiz for Tat- tighter for his 2nd start

R6-#10 Lithe Legend- makes improvement 2nd off the layoff

 

[scrimmage]

Re: 100 race tracking thread inspired by Jeff Jones....

[Note 9/15 Bel R6-#10 Lithe Legend was a scratch]

Update thru 9/15
YTD now stands at:
75 races- 13W-22P
$300 bet/$236.10 returned= -63.90

The downtrend continues another day....
Back with a few more later....

 

[scrimmage]

Re: 100 race tracking thread inspired by Jeff Jones....

Selections 9/16/2012

Belmont:

R2-#4 Sweet Irish Emily- turf to dirt blinkers on drops in class

R3-#4 Personal Strike- class drop Dominquez on Dutrow drills adds up

R5-#5 Corporate Culture- Dominquez rode a few of these last time lands on this English Channel
filly firster who's been training brilliantly

R6-#10 The Giant's Beauty- gets turf Lezcano stays on wakeup call

R7-#10 Kibosh- has come to hand recently can hold her form for one more

 

[scrimmage]

Re: 100 race tracking thread inspired by Jeff Jones....

Update thru 9/16
YTD now stands at:
80 races- 14W-23P
$320.00 bet/$257.40 returned= -$62.60

 

[scrimmage]

Re: 100 race tracking thread inspired by Jeff Jones....

A few at Philly on Monday....

Selections 9/17/2012

Parx Racing:

R3-#5 Passeporta- Kimmel/Garcia use a NY off day to run horses here

R5-#8 Discreet Lady- Kimmel/Garcia another one

R7-#4 My Kinda Party- 1st time juice for Dutrow/Pennington off decent 3rd

R9-#2 Conflicting Report- clear cut case 117 pounds is 5 less than anybody else

 

[scrimmage]

Re: 100 race tracking thread inspired by Jeff Jones....

[Note 9/17 R3 Parx #5- Passporta was scratched]

Update thru 9/17
YTD now stands at:
83 races- 16W-25P
$332.00 bet/$273.00 returned= -$59.00

No plays on Tuesday,back on Wednesday,there're 17 races left to make a final push for profit....

 

[scrimmage]

Re: 100 race tracking thread inspired by Jeff Jones....

Wednesday night action[1st race post time is 6:45 PM ET],a few
Canadian races to consider....

Selections 9/19/2012

Woodbine:

R1-#4 Raincoats'ntuxedos- drops controlling speed fast work recently

R5-#8 Matching Skies- drops out of a troubled start key race blinkers off

R6-#6 Hurry Up Alan- turf to all weather stretches out made a move vs tougher last time

R7-#2 Vegas- 3rd off the layoff ran an improved 4th can do better now

R8-#10 Buy With Gold- middle move 5th vs some of these blinkers on Contreras a +

 

[scrimmage]

Re: 100 race tracking thread inspired by Jeff Jones....

Update thru 9/19
YTD Now stands at:
88 races- 18W-28P
$352.00 bet/$329.00 returned= -$23.00

Made a dent in the deficit Wednesday,gonna wrap this puppy up in the next 2 days,
12 chances left to go green....

 

[scrimmage]

Re: 100 race tracking thread inspired by Jeff Jones....

Moving right along to Chicago area track for todays attempt at pari-mutuel glory....
As usual results are based/scored on $2Win-$2Place units.

Selections 9/20/2012

Arlington Park:

R2-#3 Tiz Sensational- closing 2nd in a 25k Mdnclm on turf off a long layoff trainer moves him up
to 50 changes riders goes to all weather+ longer can sit a trip

R3-#5 Infratini- gets class relief better at this level 16% jockey Mena rides

R4-#6 Amazing Results- former stakes winner likes this course is coming around Mena hops on
realistic spot for high % trainer

R6-#5 Street Spice- been working regularly since late June over the track in preparation for his
first start by Street Sense out of a stakes winning mare

R7-#1 Chestnut Soup- could've went with the obvious Catalano horse here but this one is a
potential bomb gets a real rider off the layoff with some sneaky works interspersed in the tab
3rd lifetime start goes dirt[flashed speed] to poly a spec bet for a big possible payoff

R8-#1 She'll Heir- connections have this one set up to score today

 

[scrimmage]

Re: 100 race tracking thread inspired by Jeff Jones....

Update thru 9/20
YTD now stands at:
94 races- 19W-29P
$376.00 bet/$340.40= -$35.60

Found no traction and slipped a little with only one winner,lots of cheap speed backing up
through the lane....Thread hits the finish line Friday 9/21....

 

[scrimmage]

Re: 100 race tracking thread inspired by Jeff Jones....

...."and down the stretch they come"....

Selections 9/21/2012

Laurel Park:

R1-#5 La Recoleta- turf to dirt shortens up drops to the bottom has flashed speed

R3-#8 Charm City- had a dirt tour/tightener has worked 3x on the Laurel turf course since
swithces to high % turf wins Karamanos blinkers on

R9-#7 Tiz The Arguement- Dutrow ships her in from NY drops out of stakes

R10-#12 Quantico Queen- drops from 40 to 25K Trombetta has tightened the screws with 3 works
for this turf mile new rider aboard

Louisiana Downs:

R1-#6 Hot Water Flyer -shortens up drops out of specials rider change regular works

R5-#4 My Mom Pat- 10 works for return attracts top rider lightly raced filly can break the
beam first

Need any combination of the above 6 plays to pay out $60.00 + to finish green at the wire....

 

[scrimmage]

Re: 100 race tracking thread inspired by Jeff Jones....

Final score thru 9/21
YTD ends at:
100 races- 20W-33P
$400.00 bet/$373.00 returned= -$27.00
ROI- 93.25%,or -6.75%

 

[scrimmage]

Re: 100 race tracking thread inspired by Jeff Jones....

A useful experiment comes to a close,tracking plays and finding good reasons to make them in
the first place,forces the discipline necessary to reach the edge of true profitability.

A few different selections/outcomes in this 100 race series would've pushed the return into the
green;as it was the loss of 6.75% actually beat the track takeout on Win/Place bets which is at
least 15%+.

Jeff Jones never weighed[waded?] in here,but his criticisms of horseplayers,and other gamblers
who post picks without accounting for them later/long term is valid,wins get remembered
losses forgotten,and the tally isn't considered important.We need to know where we are,to get
to where we want to go,otherwise we're only fooling ourselves....

Having a base,allows adjustments to constantly be made to the model as needed....

Thanks for viewing;over and out....