Saturday Bases....270-287, -6.5 units, ytd..)

[Bucsfan67]

** YTD Record is pending the Dodgers game.....gonna basically "thrown down the gauntlet " this weekend....I have defended my capping for a few weeks now, and been told when, how, where, etc to change my style, etc....I have been very vocal that it has worked for me for years, and still will...however, things are still muddling along.....so this weekend is the barometer...i am tired of being defensive about my picks, second guessing myself, etc......I have been double checking plays, thinking twice, taking a game out, cuz its too high vig, (then it wins), not playing runlines i like, cuz they havent been doing so good, etc.....Well that ends today.......i have went through, found what i like, found the value where i see it, and i am not eliminating anything....there are 11 plays i like, and i am playing them.....slump be damned, i am gonna come out swinging, and go down fighting, if thats what it takes.....going out on a limb, and setting myself up for more 'advice" here, but i DO REALLY LIKE THIS CARD TODAY, and predict a nice winning day......If i'm wrong, well the naysayers will have more ammo....in fact, if i dont come out ahead this weekend, i will cave for a couple week, and heed the advice of the "experts'.....I will cut down the games to a max of 5 on any day, i will eliminate the 1 unit plays, i will eliminate any home team runlines, and i will take the time to write brief writeups on my plays (will be easier with less plays) for a solid 2 weeks, to see if that changes things, or jostles me out of the slump.....fair enough?...But in exchange i ask one thing, PLEASE, do not post advice, criticism, or just the usual bashing, until after the Sunday games...Then u CAN SAY ANYTHING U WANT IN THE SUNDAY THREAD, and it will remain there.....I just want one "positive" weekend to see if i can change things.....if i am wrong, then i do all the stuff you guys have asked/told/advised me to.....i think thats a fair deal.....you dont have to say 'good luck" or anything, just please keep the negative to a minimum for JUST THIS WEEKEND, and lets see what happens..

Instead of being shy about my plays, i am MORE CONFIDENT that i have felt in awhile today, and we will see if I am right, or they are right.....Best of luck this weekend guys............



Colorado (+115).......2 units

Boston (-181).......2 units ** due to pitching change

Yankees (-132).......2 units

San Diego (+112)......1 unit

Pittsburgh (-115)......2 units

Pittsburgh -1.5 (+186)....1 unit

Kansas City (+188).....1 unit

Cleveland (+102)......2 units

Philly (+101)......1 unit

Toronto -1.5 (+105)....2 units

 

[IDENTITY]

Bucs - don't do anything for anyone else. Do it for YOURSELF. Forget the naysayers and focus on the work ahead...

Best Wishes...ID

 

[CHOPTALK]

You may think that you are not letting the advice of people cost you, but in reality I think the advice can tend to sway someone the wrong way, even if you think it is not.

If you like a play, bet it no matter what. Even if it is a hometeam on the run-line.

People who say that betting the hometeam on the runline is a sucker play, simply does not get it.

Sure the home team wins by 1 run more than they do on the road, thats why the sportsbooks give the hometeam a premium on the runline when they play there games at the home park. The % of wins for the home team is less, but the payout % is more. If there is value in the play, its good to go.

Overthinking is what kills us all. It turns a small bad run into a really bad run.

Overthinking is what killed me this year. You think so much that you talk yourself out of winning bets in exchange for losing bets. I know exactly what you are saying in your opening sentence and can relate to that 100%.

WITH THAT BEING SAID.......................

I think all these bashers need a good case of STFU!!!!!!
ONLY DOWN 6 UNITS!!!!!!!!!!! GIVE ME A DAMM BREAK FOLKS!!!!!!! Learn alittle money management and quit blaming everyone else for your shortcommings.


I dont know how you have posted your thread daily for over 3 years without total and complete burnout.

Its really a damm shame what I am reading in these threads.

The guy is down a whole 6 units!!!!!!!!!!(BIG FUCKING DEAL!!!!!!!)

Does everyone realize that -6 units is better than over 90% of the baseball cappers this season? I know alot of smart baseball people, and I have heard that this season is the worst in memory. Its certainly my worst season to date.

 

[K-ONE]

You might just consider locking out your pick threads and keeping the maggots out.

Good luck this weekend!

- K1

 

[Cannon]

I have some NBA winnings ,I will sign up for the weekend.

I have some NBA winnings ,I will sign up for the weekend.

Every play you have $100 per unit. Lets make some money.

 

[Ah boy!]

:hung

And the chase is officially on?

Funny Chop chimes in now.

chop+buc = -70 units

Before it is said....my fault, but the truth hurts. I was prepared to follow a little more until this post. :yikess I really hope you can regroup. GL


:doh1 18 units? You are a beast! Honestly, I hope you sweep the board. Good luck.

 

[FireItUp420]

they said on NESN today that Smoltz is going tommorrow for ATL instead of Ramirez.

 

[BigDaddy]

they said on NESN today that Smoltz is going tommorrow for ATL instead of Ramirez.

i doubt they pitch smoltz on 3 days rest it looks like cormier will pitch

 

[FireItUp420]

Yup, sorry, you're correct. From the Braves mlb.com website:

The Braves will try to change that streak by sending 25-year-old Lance Cormier to the mound to make his first career start for Atlanta. Cormier will make the start instead of Horacio Ramirez, who was hit in the head with a Lance Berkman line drive on Sunday. Though Ramirez said he feels healthy enough to pitch, Atlanta decided to skip the left-hander's spot in the rotation to ensure that there are no lasting effects from the contusion that Ramirez suffered on the left side of his face.

 

[dantheman]

Chop, thanks for stopping by. You are so right, everything can be going right and the first bad day will bring out idiots on a forum to start saying crap and then you start over-thinking things, etc, etc....You and Bucs are among the best, have followed you both for a long time. It takes a lot of man to come out here day after day and post plays win or lose. Most folks on these sites (eog, therx, etc) are either posting their plays or playing off others. Most are followers, including myself, and everything is about long-term results. You go thru good and bad and hopefully at the end your in the positive. You guys are the best and your posts and information is greatly appreciated!

GL REST OF SEASON to you both!! Chop, for some reason, I'm already itching for next year's pre-season to get here---nice Preseason!!

Bucs--tomorrow we get back in the black! GL!!

 

[Fezzik]

MLs vs. RLs.

MLs vs. RLs.

I'm not qualified to have a clue on the baseball capping scene, but I will suggest the bettors strongly consider NOT playing the RLs on teams when the ML is at -150 or less.

The reason is that the adjustment from ML to RL is pretty spot on. Playing into a novig lines, one will do the same betting the RLs or beting the MLs in the long run.

-220/+200 games often are optimally bet when playing the favorite by playing the -1.5 -110 bet, since the ONLY way to playing into a low vig dime line is with the Pinny (or other dime line) run line.

However, when a team is around -120 ML now frugal shoppers

1) Can get the game around -117 by playing into 8 cent lines and shopping.

2) RL bettors pay more vig since they play -1.5 around +180, but the marketplace has no dime line at this price, and most shops charge 20 cents or more spread.

The bottom line is if you played 1,000 game on favorites lined pk to -140 you almost certainly would do better playing the ML than the -1.5 simply because the two bets are equivalent vig free, but you pay more vig vs. the marketplace novig when playing the ML.

Good luck to all in your bets tomorrow.

 

[crapula]

GL.

 

[aca]

Overthinking is what killed me this year.

Lots of your bad bets and adding (chase) plays killed us!

Bucs is class for you!

All the best for weekend!

:cheers

 

[joelatti]

:hung

And the chase is officially on?

Funny Chop chimes in now.

chop+buc = -70 units

Before it is said....my fault, but the truth hurts. I was prepared to follow a little more until this post. :yikess I really hope you can regroup. GL


:doh1 18 units? You are a beast! Honestly, I hope you sweep the board. Good luck.

DISREGARD this idiot BUCS!!

 

[Josey Wales]

Good luck Sir.

 

[kyhawk]

People love to be negative. Its what sells the news. Keep up with what has worked for you in the past. Good luck sir.

 

[trytrytry]

boston off the board at Pinny now? WHY WHY WHY?

 

[Bucsfan67]

yeah, guys, Looks like Ramirez will not be going for Atlanta, but Cormier will be pitching...

As i have always said, my plays are always "action" however, i want to see what the line is when it comes out, this may not be a "fav" play, if the line is jacked up, too much....and of course our runline wager is void at this line....I wil see what the new line is, to see if i think it still has value...

 

[Bucsfan67]

OK...


Finally now see a line for Boston, and it jumped alot (too much)....i see (-181) now............

So, i am dropping this to a 2 unit play....normally i would hardly ever bet this much vig, maybe we have 3 times all year, and won them all, but still its risky.....we were going to be risking a little less than 4 units on the game when it was fav play, so this translates to about the same, playing it at 2 units....

The runline is also a (-) play, therefore i dont want any part of it.....


So we now have 2 units on Boston moneyline for the game.....

And NO FAV PLAY for today...it was a real tossup for me between 2 games as to which would be fav play, i am tempted to put the other one in, but hate for people who already wagered trying to follow strictly to have to go back and adjust....thats why i dont add games thorughout the day, to make it easier for everyone......

 

[Brutus]

bucs, don't change what you are doing because of what people said. If you want to change some things because you think it may be a good idea then do so, but don't do it just to cave into all the pressure from your nay sayers.

Be true to yourself and do what you think is right and don't worry about what the others want you to do.


KICK THE BOOKS ASS THIS WEEKEND!!!!!


BOL :cheers

 

[Bucsfan67]

bucs, don't change what you are doing because of what people said. If you want to change some things because you think it may be a good idea then do so, but don't do it just to cave into all the pressure from your nay sayers.

Be true to yourself and do what you think is right and don't worry about what the others want you to do.


KICK THE BOOKS ASS THIS WEEKEND!!!!!


BOL :cheers

Not planning on changing things permanently Brutus, was just willing to 'wager" on this weekend, and if i lose, i will give a two week trial to what they are all saying, to see if it helps....i mean if i lose this weekend as well, then maybe something needs to be adjusted....i was just willing to give their advice a chance, trying to be fair....but as u can see, some people cant help themselves and have to come in negative anyway, thats just all they have....i am not counting that though, as its not a regular negative adviser....if the reg's just give me the 2 days i asked for, then i will still honor my agreement for 2 week period, if we dont profit this weekend..

 

[Bucsfan67]

you might note too, this was more for me, than for them...

I am challenging myself, basically, to quit worrying about what they think, post the games i like, whethere there are 7 or 13 of them, post where i see the value, like always, and run with it.....tired of feeling apprehensive, like i need permission to post my plays, etc.....i am just kinda slapping myself around a little, trying to clear the fog...so to speak.

 

[SIG]

so how does this action play work? Is it void and we need to play Bos for 2 units or is it still good and we need to play Atl for 1 unit to make Bos a 2 unit play?

 

[Bucsfan67]

so how does this action play work? Is it void and we need to play Bos for 2 units or is it still good and we need to play Atl for 1 unit to make Bos a 2 unit play?

If u played it as action at your book, then the bet stands and they adjust the price......however, since the line moved so drastically, you really dont have to wager on atlanta to make the play less, cuz its basically a 2 unit play now anyway....

in other words, if you're a 100.00/unit bettor, if u got the line at -133 last night like i did, then you wagered 399.00 to win 300.00..........so now you would have 399.00 to win $220.00 at the new line......so its basically a 2 unit play already...

Now me personally, i am taking the 1 unit i was refunded on the (+) money runline, and playing it on the moneyline as well, so i am close to my original 3 unit play, however, i am not posting that here, cuz i would prefer to minimize the risk on a high line like this (for you guys) But like i have said many times, if i really like a game, and feel that one side would win the game 90% of the time, then i am willing to occasionally lay the wood to get the money, it all spends the same, and the vig only counts if you lose.........But i CERTAINLY like Boston to win even more so now, with a reliever, with a high era, getting an unprepared start, thus leaving Atlantas bullpen EVEN WEAKER than normal, should it be a close game....

 

[SIG]

ok..thanks Bucs

 

[Bucsfan67]

ok..thanks Bucs

you;'re welcome sir...


lets get a nice boston win, then we dont have to worry what the price was..

 

[Devils Advocate]

Keep workin it Bucs, people who have been following you for years know you know your stuff. Screw the pressure. Look around everybody who has handicapped baseball well in the past are having a rough time of it this year. I know you ll snap out of it your still the best.

 

[Bucsfan67]

Keep workin it Bucs, people who have been following you for years know you know your stuff. Screw the pressure. Look around everybody who has handicapped baseball well in the past are having a rough time of it this year. I know you ll snap out of it your still the best.

thank you sir...



I love your tagline.....

 

[SlackerCSB]

Screw the clowns Bucs. Post your games, total up the units at the end of the night and ignore everything else.
:cheers

 

[Rawpimple]

Bucs-

For some reason I feel all the detractors have set up camp in your dome and have effected your capping. Completely taken you off your game. Basically FUCem. Who cares? Anyone can sign up and post something negative but who really cares if every single post on here is negative. You are proven. So if someone comes on and makes a negative post shrug it off. Who cares. There are plenty more positive posts and even if there weren't, who really cares.
You stick to capping the way you cap. Thats what has gotten you so far. Don't change. Keep posting.



Cliff Notes Version of what I typed above: WHO CARES.

 

[Bucsfan67]

you guys are right, and i am no longer responding to them...per the advice of many...

I just wanted to see if actually keeping the crap out for a couple days could change the atmosphere of negativity, and get things going well again...thats why i am willing to succumb to their wishes for 2 weeks about my posting, if they will honor my wishes for 2 days as a test...if i win, then they will be shutting up anyway, if i lose, then it isnt thier fault, and i need to try their advice for a short time, to see if it jogs me...seems a fair enough deal...

But then again, I DONT PLAN ON LOSING....

 

[Devils Advocate]

Have no fear I've already sacrificed 1 goat and 2 sheep to the waging gods on your behalf. I tried to use my son in law but the ASPCA stepped in. How was i suppose to know there are laws against such things

 

[Bucsfan67]

Have no fear I've already sacrificed 1 goat and 2 sheep to the waging gods on your behalf. I tried to use my son in law but the ASPCA stepped in. How was i suppose to know there are laws against such things

Whatever it takes my friend, whatever it takes....

 

[THE SHRINK]

Good Luck today Buccaroo...

 

[Pat Sajak]

Bucs-

For some reason I feel all the detractors have set up camp in your dome and have effected your capping. Completely taken you off your game. Basically FUCem. Who cares? Anyone can sign up and post something negative but who really cares if every single post on here is negative. You are proven. So if someone comes on and makes a negative post shrug it off. Who cares. There are plenty more positive posts and even if there weren't, who really cares.
You stick to capping the way you cap. Thats what has gotten you so far. Don't change. Keep posting.



Cliff Notes Version of what I typed above: WHO CARES.

What RP said.

 

[Bucsfan67]

gotta love when a manager like Francona, wont even get any one up in the bullpen, when he can plainly see, that Beckett has just lost it all of a sudden.....8 balls in a row, and NOT ONE WAS CLOSE......

Not like we are leading 10-0, and he can get trhough it....this is still a game....damn, only a 3 run lead right now....

Bad call i think, not warming the bullpen up, we will see...

 

[Nicoman1199]

We got out of it with minimal damage...Yanks are rollin now too...

 

[Bucsfan67]

looks like we are gonna have to sweat the Yankees game now as well....man a 9-2 lead in the 5th, and they are just holding on right now....

they are getting what they did against Texas earlier this year, done to them today....

Hope we can get it to Rivera...

 

[Double J]

looks like we are gonna have to sweat the Yankees game now as well....man a 9-2 lead in the 5th, and they are just holding on right now....

they are getting what they did against Texas earlier this year, done to them today....

Hope we can get it to Rivera...

At least we still have the lead (barely!). We're on the board with the Red Sox winning. A good sign bucs!! :cheers

 

[bigbet1234]

Bucs, can you give me a brief explanation of why you do not list pitchers? Seems to me, one would have to list the pitcher, or it is just a crap shoot if the starting pitcher is scratched, and you may have to take a horrible number.

BB