Wait until they go on a losing binge and he starts pointing fingers again. Happens every season
with him.
Slight value at 75/1, but nothing that special. What if they are:
First -200
Second +200
Third +200
Finals +400
That's about 68/1. Add in the off chance they get a bunch of injuries and somehow miss the playoffs and 75/1 seems about right. Of course you could debate these odds round by round, but its very plausible IMO.
I just got rid of $100 of my bet to a friend and gave him 50/1. So I have a free shot at $2500.........
But the bet has very little value...,. Nothing special.....
Nice try at acting sharp
Instead of being a prick as you do so well, why don't you engage in debate and tell me where my math is off. I'm reasonable and be glad to discuss, but have no patience for people acting like a pompous ass like you always do.
First of all what you posted is about as obvious as the sun. In 35 years of betting I have made probably 5 future bets like these because of what you posted. For the most part every future bet you would get more if you just parlayed them when the playoffs started.
What you posted is something every sharp bettor knows.... Please stop
The bet was 75-1...... It is now at 20 to 30 to 1 and that is a really bad bet, but anytime you can get a playoff team in any sport at odds that high there's a ton of value.
The thing you don't get is the post was made to help people and your posts served no purpose except to put a negative spin on the bet.....
But I have the problem?
Good one
There is so little value at 75-1 when the real odds are 30-1 and you should know that if you are so fucking sharp. Please stop this bullshit, I have been betting 28 years, so what how many years you have been betting? I know morons who never have winning years betting been doing it longer than me. Please show some real skills, this whole thread is a stupid exercise in homer asses telling me how much they like the Heat. Who cares?
What are you talking about? If he's getting 76 about a 31 chance, that's massive value.
No its not, that's square thinking. Do some real math in percentages and you will see why. It's not 76 versus 31, it 1.3% versus 3.2%. Thinking the square way leads to bettors blowing a lot of money over betting on that future bet.
I have and if he's getting 76 about a 31 chance, he theoretically has a 145% edge. Practically speaking, If he could lay an original bet of $100 off at an exchange, he could lock in a $145 profit right now if the Heat don’t win another game all year or they end up winning it all. There is a sundry of thing he could do and he has already done some of it by selling off a piece of his bet.
He has tremendous optionality w/ his position; he's in the catbird seat.
Do you understand why you are wrong?
I have and if he's getting 76 about a 31 chance, he theoretically has a 145% edge. Practically speaking, If he could lay an original bet of $100 off at an exchange, he could lock in a $145 profit right now if the Heat don’t win another game all year or they end up winning it all. There is a sundry of thing he could do and he has already done some of it by selling off a piece of his bet.
He has tremendous optionality w/ his position; he's in the catbird seat.
Do you understand why you are wrong?
No its not, that's square thinking. Do some real math in percentages and you will see why. It's not 76 versus 31, it 1.3% versus 3.2%. Thinking the square way leads to bettors blowing a lot of money over betting on that future bet.
That's wrong thinking. You make a bet, your chances are what they are now. If you want to sell off a piece later that is a separate consideration. You can't assume you will be in this position three months later because often you will be underwater and can't sell it.
I don't like hedging but I get why it appeals to some. However that's almost always after making an overbet in the first place. Something that wins 3% of the time doesn't deserve one regular bet unit or even half of it. Thats a bad habit lots of even smarter bettors do with the idea that they want to hedge. I don't buy it, house edge is huge in futures and most bettors over rate their abilities to spot these.
Future bets should be treated mostly as lottery tickets, the house edge is too much to beat them in. There is a sweet spot you can very occasionally beat, but that's in the 5-1 to maybe 12-1 range. Ask any good horseplayer this, if you want to find value bets to win against something with high house edge, these are the ranges you can find value in. If you find a team or horse that's in your analysis 8-1 to win and it pays 12-1, that's bettable. Beyond those bets, you are just taking a shot and should make a minimal bet and don't expect to earn much. It's great to cash a big ticket, but chances are you do it once a decade and you'll be offsetting a lot of losers with it.
I certainly don't agree with the fact that if you have 75-1 with any playoff team you have value (speaking NBA here, obviously an mlb team making the playoffs has to have value at 75-1.). However I don't think there is any debate on whether or not the Heat have value at 75-1 because they obviously do.And nobody is arguing about the value of most future bets, but if you're getting 75-1 on any playoff team in any sport it has a lot of value. Just does
I might have made 5 of these in my whole life so I understand how little value 95% of the bets are worth.
I certainly don't agree with the fact that if you have 75-1 with any playoff team you have value (speaking NBA here, obviously an mlb team making the playoffs has to have value at 75-1.). However I don't think there is any debate on whether or not the Heat have value at 75-1 because they obviously do.
No, it is.
If the Fair Price is 31 (30 to 1) then we are saying there is a 1 in 31 chance of the Heat actually winning it all. However, his bet at 76 (75 to 1) suggests there is a 1 in 76 chance of them winning. Once again, if the Fair price is 31, his reward-to-risk ratio is 30 to1, he's getting back $30 for every $1 he risks; in this case, since he captured 76, his reward-to-risk ratio is 75 to 1.
He can potentially get paid off 75 to 1 on something that should be paying 30 to 1.
Fine argue it all you want, it's just under 2% edge. If you bet something at even that you are confident should be -110 you have earned a greater edge. That's just simple math.
Fine argue it all you want, it's just under 2% edge. If you bet something at even that you are confident should be -110 you have earned a greater edge. That's just simple math.
To summarize, cultivate an EV Mindset.
If you think of your Edge as your Expected Yield, you will realize that getting 2.00 about a 1.91 chance (4.7% Expected Yield) is nowhere near the Expected Yield of getting 76 about a 31 chance (145% Expected Yield).
Umm ok, I'm tired of arguing about it. Carry on.
Still 75-1 or higher .........
Amazing value... Could possibly win the East!
Plus, Pat Riley is someone who will go out and add a good player when he sees the team has a real shot......
Milwaukee has no answer, if the Heat will keep scoring this many 3's
What the Bucks do on offense is pure crap.
Not impressed with either team
Bam Adebayo might have just cost the Heat s sweep with a stupid foul.
I have also middled and scalped with some of the biggest groups in Las Vegas for years and was most of the brains behind them.
Also booked in (ran them) some of the biggest offshore books there is (or was) ........
So the point is this.... There is nothing you can teach me! Nothing
At times the Bucks look like a more in sync second unit when Giannis is on the bench and the second unit steps up, and not just offensively.