My Weekend Blog

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
YOUTH IS SERVED.....Naming pre-season All-American teams in college basketball is an outdated practice. Why bother with an irrelevant list of All-American players dominated by a bunch of overrated upperclassmen?

This season, Associated Press named Sherron Collins (Kansas), Kyle Singler (Duke), Luke Harangody (Notre Dame), Patrick Patterson (Kentucky) and Cole
Aldrich (Kansas) to its first-team All-American squad. The five so-called All-Americans share a common trait: they have little or no upside. What you see is what you get.


To be blunt, Singler and Harangody are not deserving of All-American status. More troublesome, Patterson is the third-best player on his Kentucky team, let alone the third-best player in the country. Freshmen John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins are superior players to Patterson.

Come to think of it, any respected list of college basketball's best players must include members of the incoming freshman class. In this age of AAU tournaments, select all-star teams and free agency in prep basketball, college basketball's new landscape should shine the spotlight on the game's youngest players as the inventory of teenage basketball stars seems to be increasing every year.

Since the NBA adopted its draft-eligible rule that requires players to be at least 19 years old and one year out of high school, college freshmen have dominated the hoop scene.

Kevin Durant and Greg Oden were the best college players in the 2006-07 season. College basketball fans will never forget the 2007-08 season highlighted by the bumper crop of freshmen that included Derrick Rose, Michael Beasley, O.J.

Mayo, Kevin Love, Eric Gordon and Jerryd Bayless. The six young hoop stars were selected among the top 11 choices in the 2008 NBA draft. Interestingly, the best freshman player in that phenomenal class did not make himself eligible for the '08 NBA draft. Blake Griffin stayed at Oklahoma an extra year before the 20-year-old star was taken by the L.A. Clippers with the #1 overall pick in the 2009 NBA draft.

The top two members of this season's NBA rookie class are Tyreke Evans, who was a one-and-done player at Memphis, and Brandon Jennings, who played one year overseas to fulfill the NBA's age requirement.

So how does the aforementioned discussion of the current hoop landscape affect my view of basketball from a gambling perspective?

A few years ago, I remember searching for college basketball rosters loaded with juniors and seniors. My thinking was simple: I wanted to back teams with cool, cohesion and continuity. I preferred 22-year-old seniors over 18-year-old fumbling freshmen.

Tsk tsk. After losing bets to players named Durant, Oden, Conley, Rose and Evans, I've changed my philosophy about the youngest hoop players in the land.

Today, I ignore a player's experience and focus on a player's true ability level, regardless of age.



SHAME ON ME.....I bet "under" in yesterday's NFL All-Star game. It turned out to be the worst bet I made all month long. The AFC defeated the NFC, 41-34.

I misread the list of Pro Bowl defections. More than 30 players missed the game due to injury or lack of interest or Super Bowl involvement. I thought the absences of star quarterbacks Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers and Brett Favre would limit the scoring. I was wrong. Dead wrong.

Take any quarterback in the NFL and they would flourish given the style of play in the Pro Bowl. The lack of physical play, combined with the rules that promote the passing game, virtually guaranteed a high-scoring result.

I will not make the same mistake next year.


MY PRO BOWL IDEA.....The NFL is searching to find the right spot on the calendar for its annual All-Star game. Holding the Pro Bowl a week before the Super Bowl clearly does not work because the best players on the two best teams are excluded from participating.


Here's a new idea: Play the game one week before the start of the regular season. Labor Day falls on a Monday and a Monday night time slot would be perfect. Fans would be eager to see NFL football after a seven-month layoff, while players could compete at "preseason speed."


MONDAY'S BEST BET.....Play MEMPHIS +1 IN THE FIRST HALF over the L.A. Lakers.


Phil Jackson's crew is 5-2 on their current eight-game road trip after yesterday's 90-89 victory over the Boston Celtics.


The Lakers trailed by 11 in the fourth quarter before rallying past a Celtics team that has now lost 11 of its last 17 games. As is often the case, Kobe Bryant bailed out his team with an off-balance 15-footer with seven seconds left. The Lakers could come out flat tonight after their nationally-televised, come-from-behind victory over one of their fiercest rivals.

Memphis exits a disappointing overtime loss Saturday night in which a 19-point halftime lead evaporated against a New Orleans team playing without injured point guard Chris Paul. It was the Grizzlies' first loss at FedExForum since December 4, snapping an 11-game home winning streak.

Look for Memphis, one of this season's most improved teams, to start strong before a bigger-than-usual home crowd. By backing "The Griz" for the first 24 minutes of the game, we avoid betting against the clutch Kobe Bryant, the NBA's best closer.


QUICK SUPER BOWL THOUGHT.....The Colts are 16-0 this season in games they've tried to win. Think Indy.



COMING FRIDAY.....Super Bowl predictions from the sharpest handicappers and most successful gamblers here in Las Vegas.

JK




 

Integrity

EOG Master
Re: My Weekend Blog

was listening to crap ideas from greenberg this morning on how to fix the pro bowl, but your's is the best thing ive heard regarding the pro bowl

the only prob would be that teams would be afraid of injuries and would tell their guys to fake injuries to get out of it

personally, id rather see skill competitions than an actual game..
 
Re: My Weekend Blog

MONDAY'S BEST BET.....Play MEMPHIS +1 IN THE FIRST HALF over the L.A. Lakers.



Phil Jackson's crew is 5-2 on their current eight-game road trip after yesterday's 90-89 victory over the Boston Celtics.

The Lakers trailed by 11 in the fourth quarter before rallying past a Celtics team that has now lost 11 of its last 17 games. As is often the case, Kobe Bryant bailed out his team with an off-balance 15-footer with seven seconds left. The Lakers could come out flat tonight after their nationally-televised, come-from-behind victory over one of their fiercest rivals.

Memphis exits a disappointing overtime loss Saturday night in which a 19-point halftime lead evaporated against a New Orleans team playing without injured point guard Chris Paul. It was the Grizzlies' first loss at FedExForum since December 4, snapping an 11-game home winning streak.

Look for Memphis, one of this season's most improved teams, to start strong before a bigger-than-usual home crowd. By backing "The Griz" for the first 24 minutes of the game, we avoid betting against the clutch Kobe Bryant, the NBA's best closer.

100% agree

Also Grizzlies ML +105 for the game
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: My Weekend Blog

Good blog, John, thanks. I like the reasoning behind the Memphis pick and I am on the Colts, although Freeney's injury gives me pause. Probably ML without Freeney, ATS if I think he can be a force in the game.
 
Re: My Weekend Blog

Nice idea but come on the teams already hold out a lot of talent in that last week of preseason to avoid injuries. No way in hell do they want to risk stars to injury. Plus the players won't risk injury either. I think the game where it was this year was as good as it is going to get drawing the best audience possible.
 

O'Royken

EOG Dedicated
Re: My Weekend Blog

Way back in the day the NFL had the College All Star game in the preseason and they got rid of that game. It was the incoming draft class versus the defending Super Bowl Champion with the last game being played in 1976.

Shame on you John Kelly for not referencing this because this game was played in Chicago in its 42 year history.

Read about it here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/College_All-Star_Game
 

railbird

EOG Master
Re: My Weekend Blog

JK,

Think of it this way. Colts are 0-1 is other A level teams. their 1 win was a ref aided one vs NewEngland. Colts have gotten where they are because of defense. They won the 2 playoff games because of Defense. Best defensive player no out. Colts will also be out- of luck.
 

KingRevolver

Born Rambler
Re: My Weekend Blog

SHAME ON ME.....I bet "under" in yesterday's NFL All-Star game. It turned out to be the worst bet I made all month long. The AFC defeated the NFC, 41-34.
I misread the list of Pro Bowl defections. More than 30 players missed the game due to injury or lack of interest or Super Bowl involvement. I thought the absences of star quarterbacks Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers and Brett Favre would limit the scoring. I was wrong. Dead wrong.

Take any quarterback in the NFL and they would flourish given the style of play in the Pro Bowl. The lack of physical play, combined with the rules that promote the passing game, virtually guaranteed a high-scoring result.

I will not make the same mistake next year.
-----

Ditto :shoot:
 

Capper123

EOG Member
Re: My Weekend Blog

Hi JK got some questions for Adam Meyer for Winning Wednesdays.

1) Are you still coming to Las Vegas to bet a $million dollars on the Super Bowl?
2) Can you you give us a hint as to which team you are betting on?
3) Is the rumour true you are just a front man for Billy Walters? Have you met Billy Walters?
4) Can you account for your statement that you charge $250,000 for your service?

thx
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: My Weekend Blog

Excellent questions, Capper. Thanks for the winner, John. 91023i2ndw;lI didn't see your pick until late, and I rarely bet 1H's. So, as I looked around my accounts, I couldn't find a +1 for Memphis. Finally, I saw +1 at 5dimes and quickly bet it. :pop:Now halftime comes and I'm waiting for them to grade it, because the scoretracker I watched was stuck on 0:04 left in the 2Q with the Grizzlies up 2. Now the game goes into the 3Q and I check again and realize to my horror that I've bet Memphis +1 for the GAME! :doh1Now, I had to sweat out the whole 2H on the same number and fortunately, they eked it out. :+excited-Already had it marked on my sheet as a winner, and refused to change it. :LMAO
 

LarryLove

EOG Member
surface encounters

surface encounters

Hey very nice blog!!....I'm an instant fan, I have bookmarked you and I'll be checking back on a regular....See ya :)
 
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