Kentucky Derby

A

Apple

Banned
Re: Kentucky Derby

Musket Man is overmatched IMO sir.. Just a cut below the top horses, he has been facing much lesser competition..
 
N

nedrow

EOG Dedicated
Re: Kentucky Derby

<TABLE width=600 border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top align=left><TD colSpan=4>[SIZE=-1]Type: Stakes[/SIZE]
[SIZE=-1]Breed: Thoroughbred [/SIZE]
[SIZE=-1]Age Restriction: Three Year Old [/SIZE]
</TD><TD colSpan=3>[SIZE=-1]Purse: $2,000,000 [/SIZE]
[SIZE=-1]Distance: One And One Fourth Miles [/SIZE]
[SIZE=-1]Surface: Dirt [/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top align=left><TD bgColor=#e3dfcb>[SIZE=-1]Post[/SIZE]</TD><TD bgColor=#e3dfcb>[SIZE=-1]Horse
Jockey
Owner[/SIZE]</TD><TD bgColor=#e3dfcb>[SIZE=-1]Age[/SIZE]</TD><TD bgColor=#e3dfcb>[SIZE=-1]Sex[/SIZE]</TD><TD bgColor=#e3dfcb>[SIZE=-1]Weight
Trainer
Breeder[/SIZE]</TD><TD bgColor=#e3dfcb>[SIZE=-1]Odds[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top align=left><TD bgColor=#e3dfcb>[SIZE=-1]1[/SIZE]</TD><TD><TABLE height=1><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=left>[SIZE=-1]West Side Bernie (KY) [/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD vAlign=top align=left>[SIZE=-1]Stewart Elliott
Lori and George Hall[/SIZE] </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD align=middle>[SIZE=-1]3[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]Colt[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]126
Kelly J. Breen
Polo Green Stable & Andrew Savas[/SIZE]</TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1]30/1[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top align=left><TD bgColor=#e3dfcb>[SIZE=-1]2[/SIZE]</TD><TD><TABLE height=1><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=left>[SIZE=-1]Musket Man (KY) [/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD vAlign=top align=left>[SIZE=-1]Eibar Coa
Eric Fein and Vic Carlson[/SIZE] </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD align=middle>[SIZE=-1]3[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]Colt[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]126
Derek S. Ryan
Jim E. Nelson & Sergio De Sousa[/SIZE]</TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1]20/1[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top align=left><TD bgColor=#e3dfcb>[SIZE=-1]3[/SIZE]</TD><TD><TABLE height=1><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=left>[SIZE=-1]Mr. Hot Stuff (KY) [/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD vAlign=top align=left>[SIZE=-1]John R. Velazquez
WinStar Farm, LLC (Bill Casner, et al.)[/SIZE] </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD align=middle>[SIZE=-1]3[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]Colt[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]126
Eoin G. Harty
WinStar Farm, LLC[/SIZE]</TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1]30/1[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top align=left><TD bgColor=#e3dfcb>[SIZE=-1]4[/SIZE]</TD><TD><TABLE height=1><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=left>[SIZE=-1]Advice (FL) [/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD vAlign=top align=left>[SIZE=-1]Rene R. Douglas
WinStar Farm, LLC (Bill Casner, et al.)[/SIZE] </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD align=middle>[SIZE=-1]3[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]Colt[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]126
Todd A. Pletcher
Mr. & Mrs. Samuel H. Rogers Jr.[/SIZE]</TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1]30/1[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top align=left><TD bgColor=#e3dfcb>[SIZE=-1]5[/SIZE]</TD><TD><TABLE height=1><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=left>[SIZE=-1]Hold Me Back (KY) [/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD vAlign=top align=left>[SIZE=-1]Kent J. Desormeaux
WinStar Farm, LLC (Bill Casner, et al.)[/SIZE] </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD align=middle>[SIZE=-1]3[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]Colt[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]126
William I. Mott
Haras Santa Maria de Araras S.A. &WinStar Farm, LLC[/SIZE]</TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1]15/1[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top align=left><TD bgColor=#e3dfcb>[SIZE=-1]6[/SIZE]</TD><TD><TABLE height=1><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=left>[SIZE=-1]Friesan Fire (KY) [/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD vAlign=top align=left>[SIZE=-1]Gabriel Saez
Vinery Stables, LLC (Tom Ludt) and Fox Hill Farms, Inc. (Richard C. Porter)[/SIZE] </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD align=middle>[SIZE=-1]3[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]Colt[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]126
J. Larry Jones
Grapestock LLC[/SIZE]</TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1]5/1[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top align=left><TD bgColor=#e3dfcb>[SIZE=-1]7[/SIZE]</TD><TD><TABLE height=1><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=left>[SIZE=-1]Papa Clem (KY) [/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD vAlign=top align=left>[SIZE=-1]Rafael Bejarano
Bo Hirsch[/SIZE] </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD align=middle>[SIZE=-1]3[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]Colt[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]126
Gary Stute
Bo Hirsch[/SIZE]</TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1]20/1[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top align=left><TD bgColor=#e3dfcb>[SIZE=-1]8[/SIZE]</TD><TD><TABLE height=1><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=left>[SIZE=-1]Mine That Bird (KY) [/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD vAlign=top align=left>[SIZE=-1]Calvin H. Borel
Double Eagle Ranch (Mark Allen) and Buena Suerte Equine (Leonard P. Blach)[/SIZE] </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD align=middle>[SIZE=-1]3[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]Gelding[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]126
Bennie L. Woolley, Jr.
Lamantia, Blackburn & Needham/BetzThoroughbreds[/SIZE]</TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1]50/1[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top align=left><TD bgColor=#e3dfcb>[SIZE=-1]9[/SIZE]</TD><TD><TABLE height=1><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=left>[SIZE=-1]Join in the Dance (KY) [/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD vAlign=top align=left>[SIZE=-1]Christopher P. DeCarlo
Jake Ballis, Rashard Lewis, Reagan Swinbank, Reed Ballis and William Swinbank[/SIZE] </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD align=middle>[SIZE=-1]3[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]Colt[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]126
Todd A. Pletcher
The Answer LLC[/SIZE]</TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1]50/1[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top align=left><TD bgColor=#e3dfcb>[SIZE=-1]10[/SIZE]</TD><TD><TABLE height=1><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=left>[SIZE=-1]Regal Ransom (KY) [/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD vAlign=top align=left>[SIZE=-1]Alan Garcia
Godolphin Racing, LLC (Mohammed al Maktoum, et al.)[/SIZE] </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD align=middle>[SIZE=-1]3[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]Colt[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]126
Saeed bin Suroor
Diamond A Racing Corporation[/SIZE]</TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1]30/1[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top align=left><TD bgColor=#e3dfcb>[SIZE=-1]11[/SIZE]</TD><TD><TABLE height=1><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=left>[SIZE=-1]Chocolate Candy (KY) [/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD vAlign=top align=left>[SIZE=-1]Mike E. Smith
Craig Family Trust (Jenny Craig)[/SIZE] </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD align=middle>[SIZE=-1]3[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]Colt[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]126
Jerry Hollendorfer
Sid Craig & Jenny Craig[/SIZE]</TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1]20/1[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top align=left><TD bgColor=#e3dfcb>[SIZE=-1]12[/SIZE]</TD><TD><TABLE height=1><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=left>[SIZE=-1]General Quarters (KY) [/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD vAlign=top align=left>[SIZE=-1]Julien R. Leparoux
Thomas R. McCarthy[/SIZE] </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD align=middle>[SIZE=-1]3[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]Colt[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]126
Thomas R. McCarthy
Mr. & Mrs. R. David Randal[/SIZE]</TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1]20/1[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top align=left><TD bgColor=#e3dfcb>[SIZE=-1]13[/SIZE]</TD><TD><TABLE height=1><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=left>[SIZE=-1]I Want Revenge (KY) [/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD vAlign=top align=left>[SIZE=-1]Joseph Talamo
Lanzman, David J., IEAH Stables, Puglisi Racing, LLC, Winner, Dubb and Marshall[/SIZE] </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD align=middle>[SIZE=-1]3[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]Colt[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]126
Jeff Mullins
David J. Lanzman Racing, Inc.[/SIZE]</TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1]3/1[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top align=left><TD bgColor=#e3dfcb>[SIZE=-1]14[/SIZE]</TD><TD><TABLE height=1><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=left>[SIZE=-1]Atomic Rain (KY) [/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD vAlign=top align=left>[SIZE=-1]Joe Bravo
Lori and George Hall[/SIZE] </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD align=middle>[SIZE=-1]3[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]Colt[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]126
Kelly J. Breen
William L. S. Landes III, Laura Landes& Sarah Landes[/SIZE]</TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1]50/1[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top align=left><TD bgColor=#e3dfcb>[SIZE=-1]15[/SIZE]</TD><TD><TABLE height=1><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=left>[SIZE=-1]Dunkirk (KY) [/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD vAlign=top align=left>[SIZE=-1]Edgar S. Prado
Mrs. John Magnier, Michael B. Tabor and Derrick Smith[/SIZE] </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD align=middle>[SIZE=-1]3[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]Colt[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]126
Todd A. Pletcher
W. S. Farish, James Elkins &W. T. Webber Jr.[/SIZE]</TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1]4/1[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top align=left><TD bgColor=#e3dfcb>[SIZE=-1]16[/SIZE]</TD><TD><TABLE height=1><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=left>[SIZE=-1]Pioneerof the Nile (KY) [/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD vAlign=top align=left>[SIZE=-1]Garrett K. Gomez
Zayat Stables, LLC (Ahmed Zayat)[/SIZE] </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD align=middle>[SIZE=-1]3[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]Colt[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]126
Bob Baffert
Zayat Stables, LLC[/SIZE]</TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1]4/1[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top align=left><TD bgColor=#e3dfcb>[SIZE=-1]17[/SIZE]</TD><TD><TABLE height=1><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=left>[SIZE=-1]Summer Bird (KY) [/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD vAlign=top align=left>[SIZE=-1]Chris R. Rosier
Kalarikkal K. and Vilasini D. Jayaraman[/SIZE] </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD align=middle>[SIZE=-1]3[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]Colt[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]126
Tim A. Ice
Dr. K. K. Jayaraman &Dr. V. Devi Jayaraman[/SIZE]</TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1]50/1[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top align=left><TD bgColor=#e3dfcb>[SIZE=-1]18[/SIZE]</TD><TD><TABLE height=1><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=left>[SIZE=-1]Nowhere to Hide (KY) [/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD vAlign=top align=left>[SIZE=-1]Shaun Bridgmohan
My Meadowview Farm (Leonard Riggio)[/SIZE] </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD align=middle>[SIZE=-1]3[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]Colt[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]126
Nicholas P. Zito
Robert Raphaelson[/SIZE]</TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1]50/1[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top align=left><TD bgColor=#e3dfcb>[SIZE=-1]19[/SIZE]</TD><TD><TABLE height=1><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=left>[SIZE=-1]Desert Party (KY) [/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD vAlign=top align=left>[SIZE=-1]Ramon A. Dominguez
Godolphin Racing, LLC (Mohammed al Maktoum, et al.)[/SIZE] </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD align=middle>[SIZE=-1]3[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]Colt[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]126
Saeed bin Suroor
David Smith & Steven Sinatra[/SIZE]</TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1]15/1[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top align=left><TD bgColor=#e3dfcb>[SIZE=-1]20[/SIZE]</TD><TD><TABLE height=1><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=left>[SIZE=-1]Flying Private (KY) [/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD vAlign=top align=left>[SIZE=-1]Robby Albarado
Robert C. Baker and William L. Mack[/SIZE] </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD align=middle>[SIZE=-1]3[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]Colt[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]126
D. Wayne Lukas
John Mulholland & Martha Jane Mulholland[/SIZE]</TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1]50[/SIZE]</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
N

nedrow

EOG Dedicated
Re: Kentucky Derby

gynecologist said:
Musket Man is overmatched IMO sir.. Just a cut below the top horses, he has been facing much lesser competition..
Click to expand...
yeah but you no the deal ,how bout if i lay off him and it wins , you no , big price got to cover him ,maybe for not as much, i need to be talked out of playing a triple thats what needs to happen
the 3 i listed ex box plus 145 ex box
 
A

Apple

Banned
Re: Kentucky Derby

nedrow said:
pound the fuk out of this to show Pioneerof the Nile
Click to expand...


I swear, I've been thinking about investing on Pioneerofthenile to show myself.. He is just such a consistent horse and can be placed anywhere, he always runs his race..

Only question, will he take to the Dirt..
 
N

nedrow

EOG Dedicated
Re: Kentucky Derby

he ll get in there ,would love to be able to see the tri pools , f/ers that know play tri s
 
N

nedrow

EOG Dedicated
Re: Kentucky Derby

i am in control i got otb account and can ccard it no problem , or drive the 15 miles
 
N

nedrow

EOG Dedicated
Re: Kentucky Derby

BBYHILL said:
Think the jock switch for Mr Hot Stuff moves him up as well
Click to expand...
right on, i agree
vasski rocks
prado was my fav but been bad last two years
coa been getting in there ive noticed from belmount and saratga last yr.,that f/er pays too
vaski as good as any
 
N

nedrow

EOG Dedicated
Re: Kentucky Derby

<TABLE height=1><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=left>[SIZE=-1]Mr. Hot Stuff (KY) [/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD vAlign=top align=left>[SIZE=-1]John R. Velazquez[/SIZE]</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>:doh1:doh1:doh1:+clueless:+clueless:shoot:
 
M

Mike_412

EOG Member
Re: Kentucky Derby

Regal Ransom will wire this field unless it is a drying out track from the rain. He's been doing excellent while at Churchill and is the controlling speed. Join in the Dance and Atomic Rain cannot go with him. Everyone else will be put into chase mode and any trip handicapper out there will tell you that the chasing trip where you try and keep a frontrunner honest and take yourself out of your own element is the toughest trip in horse racing. Adding lasix for him is just another positive.

My knocks on the rest of the field:

I Want Revenge: While he's been doing well during his stay in Kentucky, his pace and speed figures are both on a downward pattern. This will usually signal an off race. Pace and speed figures work in conjuction with each other. Pace up = speed down and pace down = speed up. When both go down, it usually signals an off race. I want no part of him on the win end.

For the record, his poor start in the Wood is severely overblown. His only competition in the race, Imperial Council, flipped and fell in the paddock. After that, he had nothing to face and the slow start maybe cost him a length total out of the gate.

Pioneer of the Nile: Nice horse, but he isn't built to win a 1 1/4 dirt race off synthetic races. Completely different dynamics between the two and is an easy toss on the win end.

Dunkirk: Slightly built colt will make a run, but the pace setup just isn't there for him. Still not convinced he's over his tough Florida Derby run. It took a good deal out of him.

Friesan Fire: He's had cupcake perfect trip after cupcake perfect trip. Combine that with the 7 week layoff and never having raced beyond 1 1/16, I need to ask why anyone would accept single digit odds on him.

Desert Party: The only danger imo to my top pick. I will save with him in the multirace exotics.

The rest of the field isn't anything special and are just a bunch of clunk up plodders.

Godolphin gets their Derby on Saturday.
 
Mr. Sanderson

Mr. Sanderson

2
Re: Kentucky Derby

Mike_412 said:
Regal Ransom will wire this field unless it is a drying out track from the rain. He's been doing excellent while at Churchill and is the controlling speed. Join in the Dance and Atomic Rain cannot go with him. Everyone else will be put into chase mode and any trip handicapper out there will tell you that the chasing trip where you try and keep a frontrunner honest and take yourself out of your own element is the toughest trip in horse racing. Adding lasix for him is just another positive.


I like the thinking outside the box, but if you don't think Join in the Dance can go with this horse early, you're in for a rude awakening... Pletcher has Dunkirk in there, Join in the Dance will not be held for a late run, he is going to the front Saturday. The Lasix cant hurt.
My knocks on the rest of the field:

I Want Revenge: While he's been doing well during his stay in Kentucky, his pace and speed figures are both on a downward pattern. This will usually signal an off race. Pace and speed figures work in conjuction with each other. Pace up = speed down and pace down = speed up. When both go down, it usually signals an off race. I want no part of him on the win end.

For the record, his poor start in the Wood is severely overblown. His only competition in the race, Imperial Council, flipped and fell in the paddock. After that, he had nothing to face and the slow start maybe cost him a length total out of the gate.
You must be joking???? A fucking length?? Wow. I should stop reading now. I don't like him to win the Derby either BTW, but if you are only giving him a length lost, after that start and the easy pace, and checking throughout the lane, again: WOW
Pioneer of the Nile: Nice horse, but he isn't built to win a 1 1/4 dirt race off synthetic races. Completely different dynamics between the two and is an easy toss on the win end.
I dont like him to win the Derby either. He is sired by Empire Maker, who finished second in the Derby, and won the Belmont at 1 1/2 Miles... Enough said, have no clue what you're taking about here. Absurd logic.
Dunkirk: Slightly built colt will make a run, but the pace setup just isn't there for him. Still not convinced he's over his tough Florida Derby run. It took a good deal out of him.
My Derby pick. You may be correct about the pace. He only has 3 career races, and the Florida Derby was a good gap back to now.. He will be fresh.
Friesan Fire: He's had cupcake perfect trip after cupcake perfect trip. Combine that with the 7 week layoff and never having raced beyond 1 1/16, I need to ask why anyone would accept single digit odds on him.
Some people think that horses that get good trips consistently are just "lucky". More logical handicappers realize horses who get good trips are usually good athletes, and often have good minds and respond well to rider direction. I never sell Jones short, though I don't like him to win the Derby either.
Desert Party: The only danger imo to my top pick. I will save with him in the multirace exotics.
Is the Sheik paying you for this writeup?
The Dubai purchases have never done jack shit in the Derby (though I think they handle horses extremely well), now all of a sudden they run 1-2 huh? OK, good luck with that.
The rest of the field isn't anything special and are just a bunch of clunk up plodders.
Many plodders in here I agree.
Godolphin gets their Derby on Saturday.
Click to expand...

Wow, where do I start here?? :LMAO Let me say that it's a good write up, just IMO insanely incorrect. Not all of it though :thumbsup
 
A

Apple

Banned
Re: Kentucky Derby

Dunkirk was extremely tired after the Florida Derby, I remember that.. If Dunkirk wins and becomes the first horse in over 100 years to win a derby while never running as a two year old then God Bless him..


I wouldn't take the low price on him..
 
M

Mike_412

EOG Member
Re: Kentucky Derby

Mr. Sanderson said:
Wow, where do I start here?? :LMAO Let me say that it's a good write up, just IMO insanely incorrect. Not all of it though :thumbsup
Click to expand...

We're going to disagree here obviously, but I'll explain my comments a bit more in depth.

Here's why I feel IWR was only cost about a length total. 1st, a slow start in a 2 turn route race with a slow opening 1/4 mile is extremely overblown. It means very little when taking an overview of the entire race. The whole checking in the lane is utter nonsense. The horse never lost momentum.

More importantly, his pace and speed figures tell the story. He ran 4 lengths slower to the pace call in the Wood while running 6 1/2 lengths slower for his final time. I love reading how some want to give him credit for 5 or 6 lengths because of the start. Essentially what they're saying is the horse would run a new pace top by a length or two yet completely fall apart late while going backwards between 11.5 and 13 lengths. It is illogical and does not make sense. THAT is insanely incorrect.

Unless of course you think he's the next coming of Secretariat that he could run a new pace top by a length or 2 and move forward with another giant speed figure.

I'll be fair and if someone wants to give him credit for 2 lengths, I'll go with that.

As far as POTN and his being sired by Empire Maker - I'll assume you're aware of how pitiful Empire Maker colts have been on the dirt in general.

I'd like to also assume that you understand the difference in race dynamics with how synthetic route races have been run this winter at Santa Anita, specifically the ones involving POTN, and how the 1 1/4 Kentucky Derby is run. The problem with that assumption is that you'd then understand my "absurd logic" but you obviously don't.

For the record, horses that have won dirt races off synthetic races are typically dirt horses to begin with. They have a bit of early speed or have very up and down action. POTN doesn't fit either category. They could also be called Zenyatta or Einstein and again POTN doesn't fit either category.

Dunkirk's a nice horse. Best of luck betting him. I'd like to see Pletcher get a Derby soon. I would prefer it happen with Johnny riding though.

As far as FF and his trips, I never said anything about them being lucky. They've been perfect as far as easy pace setups with zero pressure. Every year those types are entered in the Deby. Every year those types lose.

One thing on Join in the Dance. They definitely will not be taking him back - that I agree on. However, all things being equal, he is not nearly as fast early or middle as Regal Ransom. If he's asked for more speed early, yes he'll be able to keep up with RR, but he'll fall apart by the opening half. If you think Pletcher is using him as rabbit for separate ownership - think again.

I don't think that Godolphin will run 1-2 nor did I say that. Keep in mind that they prepped both of them very differently than previous Derby runners. It used to be a prep or two, fly in late, gallop, jog, maybe 1 work, and race. Now they've been given 3 preps, arrived early, each had 2 works, and are doing excellent.

I wish you the best of luck on Saturday. :thumbsup
 
Last edited:
Mr. Sanderson

Mr. Sanderson

2
Re: Kentucky Derby

Mike_412 said:
We're going to disagree here obviously, but I'll explain my comments a bit more in depth.

Here's why I feel IWR was only cost about a length total. 1st, a slow start in a 2 turn route race with a slow opening 1/4 mile is extremely overblown. It means very little when taking an overview of the entire race. The whole checking in the lane is utter nonsense. The horse never lost momentum.

More importantly, his pace and speed figures tell the story. He ran 4 lengths slower to the pace call in the Wood while running 6 1/2 lengths slower for his final time. I love reading how some want to give him credit for 5 or 6 lengths because of the start. Essentially what they're saying is the horse would run a new pace top by a length or two yet completely fall apart late while going backwards between 11.5 and 13 lengths. It is illogical and does not make sense. THAT is insanely incorrect.

Unless of course you think he's the next coming of Secretariat that he could run a new pace top by a length or 2 and move forward with another giant speed figure.

I'll be fair and if someone wants to give him credit for 2 lengths, I'll go with that. I'll go with 4 to 5 lengths, and we can disagree.

As far as POTN and his being sired by Empire Maker - I'll assume you're aware of how pitiful Empire Maker colts have been on the dirt in general.
You may end up looking foolish here... I dont think so either, though.

I'd like to also assume that you understand the difference in race dynamics with how synthetic route races have been run this winter at Santa Anita, specifically the ones involving POTN, and how the 1 1/4 Kentucky Derby is run. The problem with that assumption is that you'd then understand my "absurd logic" but you obviously don't. I understand your logic, I just think you're wrong.

For the record, horses that have won dirt races off synthetic races are typically dirt horses to begin with. They have a bit of early speed or have very up and down action. POTN doesn't fit either category. They could also be called Zenyatta or Einstein and again POTN doesn't fit either category.

Dunkirk's a nice horse. Best of luck betting him. I'd like to see Pletcher get a Derby soon. I would prefer it happen with Johnny riding though. Yep, I'd like to seen my boy Johnny Court get the mount (if were talking personal sentamentality), but Johnny V. deserves it...

As far as FF and his trips, I never said anything about them being lucky. They've been perfect as far as easy pace setups with zero pressure. Every year those types are entered in the Deby. Every year those types lose. Like Smarty Jones lost? He always got good journeys as well.

One thing on Join in the Dance. They definitely will not be taking him back - that I agree on. However, all things being equal, he is not nearly as fast early or middle as Regal Ransom. If he's asked for more speed early, yes he'll be able to keep up with RR, but he'll fall apart by the opening half. If you think Pletcher is using him as rabbit for separate ownership - think again.
He is a natural rabbit, and can't pass horses, so why wouldnt he be a gun and hope? HE has no hope anyway.
I don't think that Godolphin will run 1-2 nor did I say that. Keep in mind that they prepped both of them very differently than previous Derby runners. It used to be a prep or two, fly in late, gallop, jog, maybe 1 work, and race. Now they've been given 3 preps, arrived early, each had 2 works, and are doing excellent.
They do it the right way over there. But its like rooting for the Yankees. Can't do it. Eventually they will win one.
I wish you the best of luck on Saturday. :thumbsup
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:thumbsup
 
WINBET

WINBET

EOG Dedicated
Re: Kentucky Derby

gynecologist said:
Musket Man is overmatched IMO sir.. Just a cut below the top horses, he has been facing much lesser competition..
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Gyno,
I read that you think Chocolate Candy will be shorter than 20/1, any reason?
good job on the Oaks thread:thumbsup :cheers
 
N

nedrow

EOG Dedicated
Re: Kentucky Derby

i won again over all fri +5.00 fuk beat losing 16.00 hit that 1 race owe it all to prado , cant chirp to loud but ill nail a few sat. i no how to play , what u do is to expect to lose every thing ya bring ,and play stuff that will pay . won 50 cents on the oaks haha
 
A

Apple

Banned
Re: Kentucky Derby

WINBET said:
Gyno,
I read that you think Chocolate Candy will be shorter than 20/1, any reason?
good job on the Oaks thread:thumbsup :cheers
Click to expand...

Well Pioneerofthenile is 7-1 and only beat Chocolate Candy by a length last time, so I figured bettors wouldn't let Candy go off at 20-1..


I personally have 24-1 on Candy.. :cheers
 
WINBET

WINBET

EOG Dedicated
Re: Kentucky Derby

gynecologist said:
Well Pioneerofthenile is 7-1 and only beat Chocolate Candy by a length last time, so I figured bettors wouldn't let Candy go off at 20-1..


I personally have 24-1 on Candy.. :cheers
Click to expand...

Plus all those square women betting :+textinb3 I was lazy when I first read about Chocolate Candy on here after the SA Derby and was pissed to see ?30 matched @ 100/1 on Betfair.:shoot:
 
N

nedrow

EOG Dedicated
Re: Kentucky Derby

r7
<TABLE width=600 border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top align=left><TD bgColor=#e3dfcb></TD><TD><TABLE height=1><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=left>[SIZE=-1]Warrior Maid ([/SIZE]</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE> 4 4 x</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
N

nedrow

EOG Dedicated
Re: Kentucky Derby

r7 ran 3rd
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r8/ <TABLE class=tjctable summary=Results><TBODY><TR class=""><TD>9 </TD><TD>9</TD><TD>Elusive Lady</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>4 4 x
 
N

nedrow

EOG Dedicated
Re: Kentucky Derby

now i school
------------
1.00 ex box 1-4-5
1.00 ex box 2-15-16
2.00 ex box 2/15
10 10 x Dunkirk
5 5 x Musket Man
5 5 x Pioneerof the Nile
 
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