When to take a middle?

The Seer

The Seer

EOG Dedicated
I have previously had chances for a middle. I like to get my favorites on Monday or Tuesday. One time in 2006 the Packers were under 46 so I jumped on it. By Saturday they were under/over 42. I hesitantly took the over 42 and the game was a blow out game of like 64 total. The middle saved me a full unit.

Another time, maybe 2000, the Saints were just being discovered that they were no longer the "Aints". They went off at -3 and were -6 by game time. I stuck with gut instinct and left it alone. They won by a lot.

Then we have lately. My vip.com account gave me a full point on Auburn. When it was -6.5 they gave me -5.5

I took $500 on Auburn -5.5 and then Tenn +6.5 at another book both -110. I did not really think Auburn would win by 6 but I have not had a middle in years. When Tenn hit +7, I grabbed that for my real bet.

I think vip may have offered the full point hoping many players would do exactly what I did.

That was the biggest waste of $50 I have had in a long time. I am not doing that again.

Anyone routinely take a middle when it is offered?
 
T

tankdog23

EOG Senior Member
Re: When to take a middle?

I have a 4 team 12 point teaser pending tonight's game which I have the over of 21.5. So I went for the middle today taking the Under 34. I would say that's a pretty good shot at hitting both
 
Jeff Jones

Jeff Jones

2
Re: When to take a middle?

Middling -5.5 and +6.5 is just pie in the sky wishing and hoping. Even middling key numbers with a point spread is basically a juice machine, unless you make the bets on different tickets.

Yes, you will win a middle every once in a while on the same ticket. But I rolled dice for 45 minutes in 1998, too. A story to tell my (nonexistant) grandchildren. But hasn't happened since.
 
Jeff Jones

Jeff Jones

2
Re: When to take a middle?

tankdog23 said:
I have a 4 team 12 point teaser pending tonight's game which I have the over of 21.5. So I went for the middle today taking the Under 34. I would say that's a pretty good shot at hitting both
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Sounds like a gamble to me.

Stray Cat Sports has Ravens +8.5, teased at 13.5. and under 37.5.

We pray for offensive ineptitude from both teams this evening.
 
O

OMNIVOROUS FROG

EOG Master
Re: When to take a middle?

Middling football is a sure and proven way to exhaust your bankroll and juice yourself to a slow and agonizing death. And that was proven during the golden years. Now? Fuggedaboutit.

Best Wishes...2938u4ji23
 
The Seer

The Seer

EOG Dedicated
Re: When to take a middle?

I have a 4 team 12 point teaser pending tonight's game which I have the over of 21.5. So I went for the middle today taking the Under 34. I would say that's a pretty good shot at hitting both
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This is what I call buying insurance. I had a round robin of many teams and like 56 tickets with 20 left with MNF to tell the final. I had Packers. I stubbornly stuck with them and failed to win about $1000 at $5 to win $56 or so each. I knew the smart thing to do was to put $550 on the Cowboys but the Cowboys never win Green Bay, blah, blah, blah. You would think I would learn. The line had moved and I did not want to buy 1.5 points nor middle myself. I would have never put $1100 on the Packers so why did I gamble with results? I think this is a form of impulse betting.

This is why I am at this forum. This happened last year when I had the Bengals vs Pats. Failed to win over $3000. I then bought a book that mentioned this forum. It explained how I had already earned most of the money and partial tickets were routinly bought and sold.
 
T

tankdog23

EOG Senior Member
Re: When to take a middle?

So do you think my bet of the under today was a poor decision? I feel like there is really good shot at winning both bets
 
The Seer

The Seer

EOG Dedicated
Re: When to take a middle?

So do you think my bet of the under today was a poor decision? I feel like there is really good shot at winning both bets
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I like the idea. It males sure you get something. You have three winners already. Now you are sure to cash one ticket at least.
 
raycabino

raycabino

Long Live Wilson!
Re: When to take a middle?

Seer, my advice here his to make a wager if and ONLY if you believe that the wager INDEPENDENTLY is a +EV wager. Only exception would be if you have too big of a position on the other side and want to cut risk that way ( but this should be rare).
 
kinosh

kinosh

2
Re: When to take a middle?

Don't middle a game unless you had planned on middling the game when you made the original bet.
 
munson15

munson15

I want winners...
Re: When to take a middle?

kinosh said:
Don't middle a game unless you had planned on middling the game when you made the original bet.
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I agree with Kinosh, and would add that the only line worth trying to middle would be 3 on sides in the NFL, especially if you can get reduced juice on at least one side.
 
Bucky

Bucky

EOG Dedicated
Re: When to take a middle?

tankdog23 said:
So do you think my bet of the under today was a poor decision? I feel like there is really good shot at winning both bets
Click to expand...


The problem with doing it is that usually ends up throwing away too many winners. You didn't say what size hedge you played. If the payout on the big teaser you have is 1k or something and you middle off half or a 1/3 or something for money management tactics is reasonable.

But,to middle the whole thing and you end up with an empty sack and a juice bath sucks. Guess, that is the mentality of middles - even on a freaking 7 you can't hope to hit 1 of 10
 
Jeff Jones

Jeff Jones

2
Re: When to take a middle?

My experience with these first halves, second halves, game bets, is that you just wind up churning yourself into oblivion.

You get the first half right (or wrong), and now it's time to get the second half right.

You can get so cute doing this, that you don't make any money.

Make your bet, and live with it. Win or lose, there will be more games tomorrow.
 
kinosh

kinosh

2
Re: When to take a middle?

Bucky said:
The problem with doing it is that usually ends up throwing away too many winners.
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Exactly! If the line moves the wrong way for you, you cannot middle it without losing money, so you ride it out. If the line moves the right way, you gotta ride it out to (hopefully) cancel out those losses. (The assumption is that the former bets lose more than they win, and the latter bets win more than they lose)
 
The Seer

The Seer

EOG Dedicated
Re: When to take a middle?

So now I have been offered this:


329 AUBURN +7.5 (-110)
330 MISSISSIPPI -6.5 (-110)

I really think Auburn will lose by about 6. 20:1 shot or 5%.
Book says the 6 is the cover about that offen.
Accept the middle for $1000 each side risking $100 or not?
 
raiders72001

raiders72001

1
Re: When to take a middle?

Try to middle. It's worth more than 10 cents to buy off of 7 in this game. It's a low total for college football.

For your other example of trying to middle a total of 42 and 46, key numbers aren't involved. If you could find something like 34 and 38 or 37 and 41 these are much better involving key numbers.
 
The Seer

The Seer

EOG Dedicated
Re: When to take a middle?

Thank you.
Spread 1,080.00 1,000.00 Football - 330 Mississippi -6 -108 for Game
AUBURN +7.5 (-110)
AUBURN vs MISSISSIPPI $ 1,100.00 $ 1,000.00

Line moved at Heritage
 
Doug

Doug

2
Re: When to take a middle?

Football middles were great to get rollovers cleared, in the old days of generous bonuses, not to actually hit the middle, and profit that way. Some were even profitable with the right mix of books and exchanges, but those days are gone.

At -110 on both ends of the middle, you need to hit 1 out of every 21 to break even.

You need to know your point values very well.

I haven't tried them in a good while, too hard to get your accounts re-balanced with no Neteller.
 
Doug

Doug

2
Re: When to take a middle?

OMNIVOROUS FROG said:
Middling football is a sure and proven way to exhaust your bankroll and juice yourself to a slow and agonizing death. And that was proven during the golden years. Now? Fuggedaboutit.

Best Wishes...2938u4ji23
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I disagree, they WERE once good.

Take an NFL game lined at 7 W/A.

I had a book ( Casablanca/ Wagerweb) that USED to give me a free half point.

I'd take the fav -6.5 -110

then, go to SIA, and get the dog at something like +7.5 +100.

that works !

even -110 both ways ( on NFL) isn't bad. I think it would hit at least 5%. Great if you need rollover.
 
Rxx

Rxx

EOG Veteran
Re: When to take a middle?

i agree with Doug about limiting to the NFL on key numbers. if i have the chance to get +3' and -2', i would do that in a heartbeat as long as both were at -110. i am not going to pay extra for it. you dont need a very high percentage hit the 3 to come out ahead. we all know that 3 is the most common differential in an NFL game.
with totals, i might consider it if i have a 4 pt swing in the NFL. i wouldnt do it in a college game on totals until maybe a 7 pt swing; which you do see sometimes in bowl games that feature two wide open offenses and start with a total in the 70s and ends in the 80s. with college sides, the key numbers dont come into play as much. i think i would need about 3 points to consider it with a line under 15, and 5-6 up to a line of 30; essentially about a 20% change.
i dont play the NBA so i dont have an opinion there.
 
Doug

Doug

2
Re: When to take a middle?

Rxx said:
i agree with Doug about limiting to the NFL on key numbers. if i have the chance to get +3' and -2', i would do that in a heartbeat as long as both were at -110. i am not going to pay extra for it. you dont need a very high percentage hit the 3 to come out ahead. we all know that 3 is the most common differential in an NFL game.
with totals, i might consider it if i have a 4 pt swing in the NFL. i wouldnt do it in a college game on totals until maybe a 7 pt swing; which you do see sometimes in bowl games that feature two wide open offenses and start with a total in the 70s and ends in the 80s. with college sides, the key numbers dont come into play as much. i think i would need about 3 points to consider it with a line under 15, and 5-6 up to a line of 30; essentially about a 20% change.
i dont play the NBA so i dont have an opinion there.
Click to expand...

I'd do 2.5 and 3.5 in NFL all day long at -115 on each. ( in real time)
 
The Seer

The Seer

EOG Dedicated
Interception vs Incompletion

Interception vs Incompletion

It was all set for an exact loss by 7. Score was AU down by 10. At 4:38 left the Tigers throw a poorly thought out pass which is intercepted. If QB throws it away, Tubberville would order a FG attempt which likely would have been good. AU then down 7. Then Tenn runs as it had been and would get several first downs and runs out the clock.

At 20:1 I was risking $100 to make $2000. It was more fun than a usual -$110 loss.
 
munson15

munson15

I want winners...
Re: When to take a middle?

Sorry it didn't work out, but I still don't believe that fave by 7 will occur more than 5% of the time. Would have been a great hit.
 
The Seer

The Seer

EOG Dedicated
They want to stick it to me again with the ten

They want to stick it to me again with the ten

361 GEORGIA -9.5 (-110)
362 AUBURN +10.5 (-110)

Now this is not the 7. It would have been the $2000 winner two weeks ago. AU won last week because of an unusual confluence of things. It was homecoming weekend. The homecoming opponent was hand picked to be an easy win. They had not won for over a month and had lost to Arkansas, considered to be like losing to The Impeached One's State around here.

Georgia will win but I think 10 is the exact number (again).
 
F

felonee

EOG Veteran
Re: When to take a middle?

Could have middled the 4 on the Packers/Bears this week, and maybe pick up a push on the 3 by game time.
 
The Seer

The Seer

EOG Dedicated
Re: When to take a middle?

The four is considered an "average" win number by my book on betting. Good numbers are 3, 7, and 10.
 
HinesWard86

HinesWard86

2
Re: When to take a middle?

When I did my key numbers for NFL, the order of importance I found was:

3-7-10-6-4-14-1-13-2-17

Dunno how important they are in college, but I found that an NFL game landed on 10 6.5252% of the time
 
The Seer

The Seer

EOG Dedicated
Re: When to take a middle?

When I did my key numbers for NFL, the order of importance I found was:

3-7-10-6-4-14-1-13-2-17

Dunno how important they are in college, but I found that an NFL game landed on 10 6.5252% of the time
Click to expand...
Thank you. What do you mean, "When I did my key numbers.." ? Is this well known stuff, or something you did yourself?
 
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