Re: XBAGGYPANTS NFL PICKS
PRE-SEASON YTD: 1-0 (+2 UNITS)
REGULAR SEASON YTD: 4-3 $ (+1.6 UNITS)
WEEK 2
2 UNITS EACH
STRONG PLAYS
CAROLINA –3 –1.15 over Chicago
It was hard not to be impressed by the Bears easy win over the Colts on Sunday night but the books are giving them a little too much credit here. As mentioned above, they caught a soft and very vulnerable Colts team at precisely the right time and took full advantage. That’s not to say the Bears aren’t greatly improved, they just might be, however, we’re going to need more proof to believe they’ve improved that much. Running back Matt Forte looks like the real deal and could make a big difference to the Bears this year but this isn’t the undersized and overmatched Colts defense that he and the whole team saw last week. All the Panthers did was go into San Diego on opening day, dominate them and come away with a well-deserved two-point win. They Panthers beat the powerful Bolts in every way. They out-rushed them, they out=passed them and they also beat them in time of possession and third down efficiency. This was no fluke either. Jake Delhomme looked as sharp as the reports about him said he was. The defense was relentless, quick and just plain bruising. The offensive line opened up holes for DeAngelo Williams all day and he, too, looked very sharp. These Panthers are a contender, make no mistake about that and now, after beating the Chargers in San Diego (and the score was flattering to the Chargers), they open at home with a ton of confidence as a small, three-point choice over a Bears team that will play back-to-back road games and that may not be aware that they’re taking a huge step up in class. Kyle Orton is about to find out what it’s like to face a real defense. Play: Carolina –3 –1.15
New England +1.05 over NY JETS
What an interesting game this is. In one single play the Patriots went from being the favorites to win the Super Bowl to praying to get a sniff of the playoffs. They went from being the team to beat to the team that anyone can beat. Pretty interesting. What we see is a team that needed a spark and they got one when Tom Brady went down and then the whole world wrote them off. That’s laughable and motivating. This Patriot team lost a bit of their swagger this season and were tooth and nails to beat a bad Chiefs team but they pulled it out and now it gets mighty interesting. They’ll use the loss of Brady to motivate them like never before and it’s not like their playing some powerhouse here. Their playing the Jets for Christ sake, a team that had their hands full with the 1-15 Dolphins and were actually fortunate to win that game. Brett Favre, contrary to what the media has reported, was not impressive, they just love to build this guy up and what a better place to do it then in New York. This week in the Big Apple the newspapers have been saturated with headlines about this game and how the power in the AFC East is shifting. The Patriots will come in here as a dog, which is an insult in itself and they’ll be about 10,000 times more motivated then playing the Chiefs as a 15?-point favorite. Matt Cassel still went 13-18 last week and didn’t throw a pick and we expect even better things from him this week. Lighting a fire under the Patriots is a big mistake and the New York media and the rest of the world did precisely that. Play: New England +1.05
OTHER PLAYS
Oakland +3.5 over KC Cheifs
This game opens with Chiefs instilled as a 4-point favourite. Anyone that watched the Raiders perform on Monday night would not back them with counterfeit money. Yet, line drops to 3 ?. We know what to do. PLAY: Oakland +3 ?
Houston -4.5 over Baltimore
The Ravens did enough to take advantage of Cincinnati’s porous defence and weak pass protection to earn a win at home last week. But heading to Houston to face this angry squad will not be quite as simple.PLAY: Houston -4 ?
Tennessee +1 Over Cincinnati
Vince Young is out. Kerry Collins is in and that might not be such a bad thing. The Titans may be lackluster but they are efficient and that’s all you have to be in order to defeat this sagging Bengals bunch.PLAY: Tennessee +1
San Francisco +7 over Seattle
While the Niners are rancid, we still have to lean their way here as the Seahawks made eight roster moves this week in attempt to replace their myriad of skill position injuries. Much prefer to play under the posted total.PLAY: San Francisco +7
arty
