Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008
2008 Top 150 Prospects
Presented this week is this year's Top 150 Prospects column. In order to be eligible, players must have no more than 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the majors. Also, they cannot have spent more than 45 non-September days on an active roster. At the end of the article is a listing of where some of the key ineligibles would have ranked.
The writeup presented with each player is the same from the divisional prospects columns. That means most are one or two months old and may contain some obsolete data. Please try not to be too unkind.
I didn't want to changes much based on anything that's happened since the start of spring training, but there are a few alterations. The most notable is
Jordan Schafer, who has been dropped about 50 spots from where he would have been before the hGH suspension. I also pushed
Eric Hurley down about 10 spots. Houston's
Josh Flores, who would have come in around No. 140, fell off because of the knee injury that will cost him the season. No one gained very much, but
Johnny Cueto might have been more in the 15-20 range before his fantastic start.
2008 Top 150 Prospects
1. Jay Bruce - OF Reds - DOB: 04/03/87 - ETA: May 2008
Previous rankings: 2006 #130, mid-2006 #23, 2007 #8, mid-2007 #2
.325/.379/.586, 11 HR, 49 RBI, 67/24 K/BB, 4 SB in 268 AB (A+ Sarasota)
.333/.405/.652, 4 HR, 15 RBI, 20/8 K/BB, 2 SB in 66 AB (AA Chattanooga)
.305/.358/.567, 11 HR, 25 RBI, 48/15 K/BB, 2 SB in 187 AB (AAA Louisville)
Add it all up and Bruce hit .319/.375/.587 with 26 homers in his second full pro season. A 2005 first-round pick out a Texas high school, Bruce has drawn comparisons to
Larry Walker because his build and powerful left-handed stroke. He's athletic enough to play center now, but he projects as a long-term right fielder. The only real concern about his game is his big strikeout totals. He fanned 135 times in 133 games last season. However, he's no more vulnerable to quality breaking balls than most, and while he can struggle some against hard heaters up and in, that hardly makes him unusual for a left-handed hitter. He crushes mistakes and is still capable of turning pitches at his knees into line-drive singles and doubles. With his durability never having come into question, he seems certain to establish himself as an above average regular. If his K/BB ratio goes from 3:1 to 2:1 or even 3:2, he'll go multiple All-Star Games and contend for MVP awards in his best years.
2. Colby Rasmus - OF Cardinals - DOB: 08/11/86 - ETA: July 2008
Previous rankings: 2006 #135, mid-2006 #47, 2007 #27, mid-2007 #11
.275/.381/.551, 29 HR, 72 RBI, 108/70 K/BB, 18 SB in 472 AB (AA Springfield)
Rasmus seemed destined to return to the FSL after hitting .254/.351/.404 in 193 at-bats following a midseason promotion to Palm Beach in 2006, but the Cardinals aggressively pushed him up to Double-A and he responded even better than they could have hoped. His 29-homer campaign would have made him a circuit MVP a lot of years, but he ended up losing out to
Chase Headley. The 28th overall pick in the outfield-rich 2005 draft, Rasmus has 30-homer ability and impressive on-base skills. He's already answered questions about his ability to stay in center field for the long-term, and the Cardinals traded
Jim Edmonds to San Diego to clear the spot for him. That doesn't necessarily mean he'll win the job this spring, but the opportunity appears to be there if he turns in a
Hunter Pence-type performance. If the chance comes this year, Rasmus will probably struggle against left-handers and find that some of his balls that traveled out of Texas League parks turn into warning track flyouts in the majors. He's a future All-Star, most likely, but he's probably a year away from being a real asset.
3. Evan Longoria - 3B Rays - DOB: 10/07/85 - ETA: May 2008
Previous rankings: 2007 #19, mid-2007 #5
.307/.403/.528, 21 HR, 76 RBI, 81/51 K/BB, 4 SB in 381 AB (AA Montgomery)
.269/.398/.490, 5 HR, 19 RBI, 29/22 K/BB, 0 SB in 104 AB (AAA Durham)
.318/.380/.682, 4 HR, 8 RBI, 13/4 K/BB, 0 SB in 44 AB (AFL Scottsdale)
Longoria finished with a pedestrian 789 OPS in his first of two seasons at Long Beach St., but he started hitting in the Cape Cod League in 2005 and hasn't stopped since. He had a 1070 OPS for the Dirtbags in 2006, a 957 mark at three levels after being drafted third overall and a 921 OPS in the high minors last season. He's already on the verge of taking over as Tampa Bay's third baseman, though it's possible the team will send him down for the first month or two of the season. Longoria will be a 30-homer guy by 2009 or 2010. His defense at the hot corner isn't stellar, but he should be able to stay at the position for at least the first half of his career. Since he probably won't hit .300 except for in his best years, he could fall short of being a perennial All-Star. Still, he'll be a well above average regular for a long time.
4. Clay Buchholz - RHP Red Sox - DOB: 08/14/84 - ETA: May 2008
Previous rankings: mid-2006 #122, 2007 #45, mid-2007 #4
7-2, 1.77 ERA, 55 H, 116/22 K/BB in 86 2/3 IP (AA Portland)
1-3, 3.96 ERA, 32 H, 55/13 K/BB in 38 2/3 IP (AAA Pawtucket)
3-1, 1.59 ERA, 14 H, 22/10 K/BB in 22 2/3 IP (Red Sox)
A 2005 supplemental first-round earned through the loss of
Pedro Martinez to the Mets, Buchholz emerged as the game's top pitching prospect during the middle of last season, only to be challenged by
Joba Chamberlain by year's end. Using a 91-95 mph fastball and two outstanding complimentary pitches in his curve and changeup, the Texas native was able to pitch a no-hitter versus the Orioles in just his second major league start. He was shut down in late September because of some arm fatigue, but it was nothing that was expected to linger. Assuming that the rest of Boston's starters make it through the spring healthy, Buchholz is probably going to get some additional minor league time early on. He hardly needs it, but it could serve to keep his innings total down. He's still sure to have a chance to make a big impact this year, and he could prove to be an ace two or three years from now.
5. Joba Chamberlain - RHP Yankees - DOB: 09/23/85 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: 2007 #130, mid-2007 #19
4-0, 2.03 ERA, 25 H, 51/11 K/BB in 40 IP (A Tampa)
4-2, 3.35 ERA, 32 H, 66/15 K/BB in 40 1/3 IP (AA Trenton)
1-0, 0.00 ERA, 5 H, 18/1 K/BB in 8 IP (AAA Scranton)
2-0, 0.38 ERA, 12 H, 34/6 K/BB in 24 IP (AL New York)
Perhaps the game's most dominant reliever after being called up last season, Chamberlain is everything the Yankees could ask for in an heir to
Mariano Rivera in the closer's role. Still, the rotation is likely where he belongs long-term and he's expected to spend most of 2008 starting, even if he begins the year in the bullpen in an effort to restrict his innings total. Chamberlain used a 96-100 mph heater and outstanding slider to succeed as a reliever. He'll return his curveball and changeup to the mix as a starter, though he may not need to use either a lot even if he loses three or four mph off his fastball. Just how strong those two pitches are will determine whether he develops into a legitimate ace. The curve has drawn the better reviews of the two.
6. Clayton Kershaw - LHP Dodgers - DOB: 03/19/88 - ETA: July 2008
Previous rankings: 2007 #40, mid-2007 #9
7-5, 2.77 ERA, 72 H, 134/50 K/BB in 97 1/3 IP (A- Great Lakes)
1-2, 3.65 ERA, 17 H, 29/17 K/BB in 24 2/3 IP (AA Jacksonville)
The No. 1 left-handed pitching prospect in the minors, Kershaw probably has even more upside than the two right-handers who will rank ahead of him on the overall top 150. However, at the tender age of 20, he does qualify as the biggest injury risk of the group. Kershaw has the ability to be a true ace for the Dodgers. His 91-96 mph fastball, curve and changeup are all quality major league pitches, and he's so tough to hit that he could be effective in the majors right now even though he'd walk five batters per nine innings. He does need to get more efficient with his pitches if he's going to work deep into games. It's very possible the Dodgers will add him to their rotation in June or July, but they'll only have him for five innings per game because he'll certainly be on a pitch count. The caution is warranted. Kershaw isn't always consistent with his delivery, which is why he occasionally struggles to throw strikes. If he gets tired and starts using his arm more than his legs, he could have problems.
7. David Price - LHP Rays - DOB: 08/26/85 - ETA: Sept. 2008
Previous rankings: none
The Rays haven't let bonus demands scare them away from top talents lately. They used the first overall pick in the 2007 draft to select Price and then gave him a major league deal worth $8.5 million. With a mid-90s fastball, an excellent slider and a track record of success against top collegiate talent, Price has to be regarded as one of the game's top pitching prospects, even if he hasn't thrown a pitch as a pro. He went 11-1 with a 2.63 ERA, 95 H and a 194/31 K/BB ratio in 133 1/3 innings as a junior at Vanderbilt. The Rays waited until August to sign him, as they didn't want him adding to an already heavy workload. He'll be in major league camp this spring, and while he's not being mentioned as a possibility for the Opening Day rotation, he could leap over several other notable youngsters and debut before the end of the year. He might prove to be a legitimate ace in time.
8. Daric Barton - 1B Athletics - DOB: 08/16/85 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: mid-2004 #102, 2005 #23, mid-2005 #3, 2006 #4, mid-2006 #10, 2007 #20, mid-2007 #7
.293/.389/.438, 9 HR, 70 RBI, 69/78 K/BB, 3 SB in 516 AB (AAA Sacramento)
.347/.429/.639, 4 HR, 8 RBI, 11/10 K/BB, 1 SB in 72 AB (Oakland)
Barton is no longer alone as an elite prospect in the A's system, but he still claims the top spot after staying healthy in his second year at Sacramento and showing surprising pop in his late-season audition with the A's. The former catcher has always employed the disciplined approach the A's prefer, and there's now increased reason for optimism that he'll be a 15- or 20-homer guy down the line. His swing promises that he'll always hit for average, and he might have some .400-OBP seasons because of patience. His glove isn't yet an asset at first base, and it is possible that he'll spend the bulk of his career as a DH, although the A's are planning on playing him in the field for now. His bat alone should make him an All-Star in his best years, though since the power isn't quite there yet, it's going to be a while before he's a stud in fantasy leagues.
9. Cameron Maybin - OF Marlins - DOB: 04/04/87 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: 2006 #79, mid-2006 #36, 2007 #18, mid-2007 #6
.571/.667/.571, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 2/2 K/BB, 0 SB in 7 AB (R GCL Tigers)
.304/.393/.486, 10 HR, 44 RBI, 83/43 K/BB, 25 SB in 296 AB (A Lakeland)
.400/.538/1.050, 4 HR, 8 RBI, 6/6 K/BB, 0 SB in 20 AB (AA Erie)
.143/.208/.265, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 21/3 K/BB, 5 SB in 49 AB (Detroit)
.219/.286/.438, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 5/3 K/BB, 2 SB in 32 AB (AFL Peoria)
In the market for a center fielder from the day they sent
Juan Pierre to the Cubs, the Marlins picked up an excellent long-term choice when they acquired Maybin the
Miguel Cabrera deal. Unfortunately, for them, the long-term may last only four or five years before he gets dealt for the next big-time prospect. Even though he has just 69 at-bats above A-ball, Maybin is the heavy favorite to take over the starting job to begin this year. He has the swing to eventually generate 30-homer power, though that's going to be a few years in coming. He currently strikes out an awful lot for someone who is going to be looked at as a top-of-the-order guy. He does offer very good speed on the basepaths and great defense in center field. I'm not convinced he'll reach his ceiling, but he shouldn't need to in order to turn in a fairly lengthy career as a regular. He'd be a better bet going forward if he spent 2008 continuing to hone his game in the minors.
10. Jacoby Ellsbury - OF Red Sox - DOB: 09/11/83 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: 2006 #138, mid-2006 #67, 2007 #42, mid-2007 #15
.453/.518/.644, 0 HR, 13 RBI, 7/6 K/BB, 8 SB in 73 AB (AA Portland)
.298/.360/.380, 2 HR, 28 RBI, 47/32 K/BB, 33 SB in 363 AB (AAA Pawtucket)
.353/.394/.509, 3 HR, 18 RBI, 15/8 K/BB, 9 SB in 116 AB (Red Sox)
Ellsbury failed to excel in Triple-A after a red-hot start in Double-A last season, but he helped make up for that by hitting more homers during a 116-at-bat audition with the Red Sox than he had in 436 at-bats in the minors. Ellsbury already offers excellent defense and exceptional basestealing ability. He doesn't walk a whole lot, but his ability to make contact should see to it that he's at least a fair leadoff hitter. Whether he's truly the 10- or 15-homer guy he appeared to be during the final month of last year will determine if he's merely an above average regular or a future All-Star. Like
Johnny Damon, he takes a completely different approach when he wants drive the ball. Most of the time, he's an inside-out guy. Since it seems to work for him, he could prove to be a better all-around hitter than the minor league numbers suggest. Either way, he should be a very good fantasy outfielder for the foreseeable future.
11. Johnny Cueto - RHP Reds - DOB: 02/15/86 - ETA: June 2008
Previous rankings: mid-2007 #33
4-5, 3.33 ERA, 72 H, 72/21 K/BB in 78 1/3 IP (A Sarasota)
6-3, 3.10 ERA, 52 H, 77/11 K/BB in 61 IP (AA Chattanooga)
2-1, 2.05 ERA, 22 H, 21/2 K/BB in 22 IP (AAA Louisville)
One of last year's fastest risers, Cueto went 12-9 with a 3.07 ERA, 146 H and 170/34 K/BB in 161 1/3 IP at three levels. As if that wasn't enough, he finished 4-1 with a 2.84 ERA, 31 H and 37/7 K/BB in 31 2/3 IP in the Dominican Republic over the winter. Cueto throws 91-94 mph. After his improved changeup helped establish him as a quality prospect in 2006, he worked on perfecting his slider last year, turning it into more of a strikeout pitch. The likelihood of injury still plays some role in his ranking. On the one hand, it was encouraging that he lasted over 190 innings without incident last year. On the other hand, that he was allowed to throw 190 innings as a 21-year-old seems like a very bad sign for the future. Cueto doesn't have a maximum-effort delivery, but he is a short right-hander with a modest build. If his arm holds up, he'll prove to be a No. 2 or No. 3 starter.
12. Fernando Martinez - OF Mets - DOB: 10/10/88 - ETA: 2010
Previous rankings: mid-2006 #80, 2007 #10, mid-2007 #8
.111/.200/.333, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 6/1 K/BB, 0 SB in 9 AB (R GCL Mets)
.271/.336/.377, 4 HR, 21 RBI, 51/20 K/BB, 3 SB in 236 AB (AA Binghamton) newyorkmets.com
Martinez, who received a $1.4 million bonus to sign at age 16, quickly established himself as a top prospect by hitting .333/.389/.505 in 192 at-bats at low-A Hagerstown in his pro debut in 2006. Moved up in August, he proceeded to bat .193/.254/.387 in 119 AB for high-A St. Lucie. Still, the Mets opted to get extremely aggressive and send him to Double-A for his age-18 season. He barely held his own in 60 games when he wasn't sidelined with hand injuries, but even that was rather impressive. Martinez is an enormous talent with 35-homer potential and the ability to hit for average. He should also prove to be an above average defender in right field with experience. He's at least one and probably two years away, but he's a star in the making.
13. Homer Bailey - RHP Reds - DOB: 05/03/86 - ETA: May 2008
Previous rankings: 2005 #73, mid-2005 #91, 2006 #65, mid-2006 #11, 2007 #4, mid-2007 (in majors)
0-1, 10.13 ERA, 15 H, 7/5 K/BB in 8 IP (A Sarasota)
6-3, 3.07 ERA, 49 H, 59/32 K/BB in 67 1/3 IP (AAA Louisville)
4-2, 5.76 ERA, 43 H, 28/28 K/BB in 45 1/3 IP (Cincinnati)
It didn't look like Bailey was far away when he finished 10-6 with a 2.47 ERA, 99 H and 156/50 K/BB in 138 2/3 IP between Single-A Sarasota and Double-A Chattanooga in 2006, but he made no progress at all in his age-21 season. In fact, he regressed in the command department. The off year doesn't qualify as a huge black mark against him. He didn't have any arm problems, and he continued to show the 93-96 mph fastball and curveball that could make him an ace in the future. In order to fulfill his potential, he'll need to do a better job of spotting his heater and come up with an improved changeup, but even if he doesn't get there, his ability to generate swings and misses with his top two pitches should make him a quality starter, albeit one who is more inconsistent than most. He's not a great bet for the short-term, but his long-term potential is intact.
14. Matt LaPorta - OF Brewers - DOB: 01/08/85 - ETA: April 2009
Previous rankings: none
.259/.286/.519, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 8/1 K/BB, 0 SB in 27 AB (R Helena)
.318/.392/.750, 10 HR, 27 RBI, 22/7 K/BB, 0 SB in 88 AB (A- West Virginia)
.241/.351/.500, 6 HR, 22 RBI, 28/17 K/BB, 1 SB in 112 AB (AFL Mesa)
The Brewers didn't let
Richie Sexson's presence prevent them from drafting
Prince Fielder in 2002 and that worked out well enough. They again went with the best available player last summer and made LaPorta the seventh overall pick after he hit .402/.582/.817 as a senior at Florida. The right-handed slugger should combine 30- or 35-homer power with strong OBPs driven by high walk totals after reaching the majors. What remains to be seen is whether he'll be able to help the Brewers as anything more than a really nice piece of trade bait. LaPorta moved from first base to the outfield after being drafted and worked hard to make it a successful switch, but he just doesn't have the range to be an asset there. At best, he'll be below average. Complicating things even further was Milwaukee's move of
[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=4048"]Ryan Braun[/URL] to left field. Both Braun and
Corey Hart have the raw speed to play center, but the Brewers didn't want to put either there this year. Unless they're willing to have one of the two replace
Mike Cameron next season, LaPorta could be the odd man out. Whether the Brewers have room for him or not, he should be ready for a job by Opening Day 2009.
15. Andy LaRoche - 3B Dodgers - DOB: 09/13/83 - ETA: June 2008
Previous rankings: mid-2005 #17, 2006 #26, mid-2006 #17, 2007 #13, mid-2007 #17
.309/.399/.589, 18 HR, 48 RBI, 42/39 K/BB, 2 SB in 265 AB (AAA Las Vegas)
.226/.365/.312, 1 HR, 10 RBI, 24/20 K/BB, 2 SB in 93 AB (NL Los Angeles)
A .315 hitter with 28 homers and a 74/64 K/BB ratio in 467 at-bats in Triple-A the last two years, LaRoche has nothing left to prove in the minors. However, he does have to show he can stay healthy. His history of back issues qualified as one reason the Dodgers were afraid to simply hand him a starting job this spring, and while the injury he suffered in March was a fluke -- he suffered a torn UCL in his thumb when he was hit by a thrown ball -- it's just one more to add to the list. A healthy LaRoche has an All-Star-caliber offensive game and a fine glove at third base. Should be beat the injury bug, he could have some .300-30 HR seasons in his prime. The team should be hoping he wins the third-base job outright by June or July.
16. Matt Wieters - C Orioles - DOB: 05/21/86 - ETA: April 2009
Previous rankings: none
.283/.364/.415, 1 HR, 17 RBI, 15/12 K/BB, 0 SB in 106 AB (HWL Honolulu)
Wieters, the fifth overall pick, immediately became the class of Baltimore's system after signing just minutes before the Aug. 15 deadline. He's compared to
Jason Varitek because he's a switch-hitter out of Georgia Tech. During his college career, he hit .359 with 35 homers and a 108/152 K/BB ratio in 704 at-bats. He should be able to muscle at least 20 homers per years in the majors. Hitting for average might be an issue, but his patient approach will lead to solid OBPs even if he bats .250-.260. On defense, he'll be solidly above average, but probably less than a Gold Glover. He's polished enough that he could survive in the majors this year if necessary. He figures to see action by September at the latest, and
Ramon Hernandez could be cleared out of the way so that he can take over as a regular in 2009.
17. Rick Porcello - RHP Tigers - DOB: 12/27/88 - ETA: 2010
Previous rankings: none</B>
The one top prospect left in the Tigers' organization following the
Miguel Cabrera deal, Porcello was viewed by many as the No. 2 talent in the 2007 draft behind first overall selection
David Price. He fell to Detroit at No. 27 because of his bonus demands and got $7.3 million from the Tigers in August. It was too late then for him to make his pro debut in 2007, but that's not a bad thing. Porcello throws in the mid-90s consistently, and his curve was one of the best breaking balls in the draft. He also has a slider and a changeup. The Tigers are likely to be pretty aggressive with him after giving him a major league deal, so he could split this season between low-A West Michigan and high-A Lakeland. He has ace potential.
18. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=1351"]Brandon Wood[/URL] - SS/3B Angels - DOB: 03/02/85 - ETA: April 2009
Previous rankings: 2005 #149, mid 2005 #13, 2006 #3, mid-2006 #2, 2007 #6, mid-2007 #10
.272/.338/.497, 23 HR, 77 RBI, 120/45 K/BB, 10 SB in 437 AB (AAA Salt Lake)
.152/.152/.273, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 12/0 K/BB, 0 SB in 33 AB (AL Los Angeles)
Wood's .321/.383/.672 season in the California League in 2005 really stands out now after he hit right around .270 with 25 homers for a second straight season last year. He did go from 149 strikeouts in Double-A in 2006 to 120 in about the same number of plate appearances last season, but he fanned in more than a third of his major league at-bats and didn't work a single walk. Wood may already be at a crossroads, at least as far as his Angels career goes. With
Orlando Cabrera gone, the team is planning on shifting him back to shortstop, putting him in a position to land a starting job if
Erick Aybar struggles. There's still good reason to think he'll be a 30-homer guy in the majors someday, and if he is something close to an average shortstop ? as it appeared he would be before the logjam resulted in his move -- he won't need to put up very good OBPs to be a quality regular. As a third baseman, more would be expected of him offensively. He'd be a regular anyway, but he'd be a
Joe Crede-type, not a star. Considering that he doesn't quite fit the Angels' mold, there's a good chance he'll be traded if he doesn't step up this year.
19. Andrew McCutchen - OF Pirates - DOB: 10/10/86 - ETA: Sept. 2008
Previous rankings: 2006 #87, mid-2006 #64, 2007 #25, mid-2007 #18
.258/.327/.383, 10 HR, 48 RBI, 83/44 K/BB, 17 SB in 446 AB (AA Altoona)
.313/.347/.418, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 11/4 K/BB, 4 SB in 67 AB (AAA Indianapolis)
.286/.381/.378, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 12/14 K/BB, 8 SB in 98 AB (AFL Phoenix)
It'd be unfair to say McCutchen hasn't met expectations since being drafted 11th overall in 2005, but he definitely had some rough patches last season and his numbers were more distressing that his overall 717 OPS suggests because of his huge righty-lefty splits. Against right-handers, McCutchen finished with OPSs of 642 in Double-A, 583 in Triple-A and 612 in the AFL. He gets overpowered by both big fastballs and hard sliders. McCutchen is a terrific athlete, and he still has plenty of time left to improve. His defense in center field will make him a regular even if he doesn't live up to expectations offensively. Still, the Pirates may regret pushing him through their system as quickly as they have. The new regime is more likely to back off and give him the additional full year in the minors he clearly needs. If he reaches his ceiling, he'll hit .300 with 15 homers and 30-40 steals per year.
20. Chase Headley - OF/3B Padres - DOB: 05/09/84 - ETA: June 2008
Previous rankings: mid-2007 #26
.330/.437/.580, 20 HR, 78 RBI, 117/74 K/BB, 1 SB in 433 AB (AA San Antonio)
.222/.333/.278, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 4/2 K/BB, 0 SB in 18 AB (San Diego)
Headley's long-term potential was questioned when he finished with just 12 homers in the hitter-friendly California League in 2006, but he's a legitimate top prospect now after starting off on fire last year and never cooling off. Headley finished with 20 homers and 63 extra-base hits, showing consistent power from both sides of the plate in the process. The on-base ability has always been there, and he'll keep hitting for fine averages in the minors. On defense, he was only average at third base, though some would say that already makes him an upgrade over
Kevin Kouzmanoff. Surprisingly, it's Headley who will make the switch to the outfield. He could be the Padres' left fielder as soon as June. His bat won't make him a star at the position, but he should be a solid regular for several years.
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21. Joey Votto - 1B Reds - DOB: 09/10/83 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: mid-2004 #144, 2005 #105, mid-2005 #130, 2006 ---, mid-2006 #63, 2007 #48, mid-2007 #20
.294/.381/.478, 22 HR, 92 RBI, 110/70 K/BB, 17 SB in 496 AB (AAA Louisville)
.321/.360/.548, 4 HR, 17 RBI, 15/5 K/BB, 1 SB in 84 AB (Cincinnati)
Votto's promotion to the majors came later than expected, but he made the most of
Scott Hatteberg's injury in September, amassing a 908 OPS in 84 at-bats. Now he has to contend with Dusty Baker's strong preference for veterans as he attempts to win a starting job at first base this year. He's also turned himself into an option in left field, but first is where he'll stay for the long-term. With 25-homer power and pretty good on-base skills, he seems ready for regular duty versus righties. Lefties give him trouble when they come inside on him, but he handles fastballs from right-handers especially well. In time, he should prove to be a solid everyday player. Given 450 at-bats as a starter against righties this year, he could hit .280 with 20 homers.
22. Wade Davis - RHP Rays - DOB: 09/07/85 - ETA: Aug. 2008
Previous rankings: mid-2006 #79, 2007 #83, mid-2007 #24
3-0, 1.84 ERA, 54 H, 88/21 K/BB in 78 1/3 IP (A Vero Beach)
7-3, 3.15 ERA, 74 H, 81/30 K/BB in 80 IP (AA Montgomery)
Once the Rays sort through some of their less talented youngsters, Davis figures to be the first of their top pitching prospects to reach the majors this year. Possessing a fastball in the 91-94 mph range, three complimentary pitches that should all prove useful and command that's improving each year, he could peak as a No. 2 starter. He also has an ideal pitcher's build and a delivery that would seem to help his chances of staying healthy. His changeup keeps left-handers honest, and he induces a fair number of grounders, allowing him to keep his home run rate down. Davis still needs to work on pitching inside, but he isn't far off.
23. Jake McGee - LHP Rays - DOB: 08/06/86 - ETA: May 2009
Previous rankings: mid-2006 #114, 2007 #91, mid-2007 #26
5-4, 2.93 ERA, 86 H, 145/39 K/BB in 116 2/3 IP (A Vero Beach)
3-2, 4.24 ERA, 19 H, 30/13 K/BB in 23 1/3 IP (AA Montgomery)
One of the hardest throwing lefties in the minors, McGee is capable of reaching 98 mph with his fastball and typically averages right around 93-95 mph. He also offers a true strikeout curveball, and his changeup has come pretty quickly considering where it was when he was drafted in the fifth round in 2004. He does have trouble in the command department, something that will become more apparent as he faces hitters less willing to chase the curve. Still, he possesses about as much upside as any pitcher in the minors, Price included. Hurting his ranking a bit is that he's the most likely of the Rays' three elite pitching prospects to begin experiencing arm woes.
24. Travis Snider - OF Blue Jays - DOB: 02/02/88 - ETA: Aug. 2009
Previous rankings: 2007 #71, mid-2007 #43
.313/.377/.525, 16 HR, 93 RBI, 129/49 K/BB, 3 SB in 457 AB (A- Lansing)
.316/.404/.541, 4 HR, 11 RBI, 29/15 K/BB, 1 SB in 98 AB (AFL Scottsdale)
One of the most talented hitters in the minors and the Jays' only top-100 prospect, Snider has the potential to be the one star drafted in the first round by Toronto this decade. The team found
Chris Carpenter,
Roy Halladay,
Vernon Wells,
Alex Rios and
Shannon Stewart in the first round in 90s, but the best they have to show for the 2000s so far is
Aaron Hill, with
Gabe Gross a distant second. A stocky left-handed hitter, Snider would be compared to
Matt Stairs even if the two weren't in the same organization. It looks like he'll last in the outfield for at least a few years, and he figures to surpass Stairs offensively because of his ability to hit for average. He might advance quickly enough to reach the majors as a 21-year-old in 2009.
25. Franklin Morales - LHP Rockies - DOB: 01/24/86 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: mid-2006 #81, 2007 #67, mid-2007 #36
3-4, 3.48 ERA, 77 H, 77/45 K/BB in 95 2/3 IP (AA Tulsa)
2-0, 3.71 ERA, 20 H, 16/13 K/BB in 17 IP (AAA Colorado Springs)
3-2, 3.43 ERA, 34 H, 26/14 K/BB in 39 1/3 IP (Colorado)
The Rockies were very lucky twice last season, as both
Ubaldo Jimenez and Morales were able to make quick transitions to the majors after arriving in the second half. Morales even went three straight starts in September without allowing a run. He did slump in the postseason, but he showed enough overall that the Rockies had him penciled into their rotation entering the spring. When Morales is at his best, he shows a 92-96 mph heater, a sweeping curveball and a fine changeup. His velocity was down this spring, making him a risky proposition for the short-term. However, he has more upside than anyone on Colorado's pitching staff,
Jeff Francis included.
26. Carlos Triunfel - SS Mariners - DOB: 02/27/90 - ETA: 2011
Previous rankings: mid-2007 #28
.273/.231/.273, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 1/0 K/BB, 0 SB in 11 AB (R AZL Mariners)
.309/.342/.388, 0 HR, 14 RBI, 23/5 K/BB, 4 SB in 152 AB (A- Wisconsin)
.288/.333/.356, 0 HR, 22 RBI, 31/12 K/BB, 3 SB in 208 AB (A+ High Desert)
While the Mariners had no choice but to part with
Adam Jones in an
Erik Bedard trade, they stuck to their guns and held on to Triunfel, their new No. 1 prospect. Playing in full-season ball at age 17, Triunfel was able to hit .309 at Wisconsin last year before going down with a broken hand at the end of May. The uber-aggressive Mariners opted to bump up to high-A ball following his return in July, and he continued to hit for a decent average, though without any power at all. While Triunfel still doesn't have a professional homer, he's sure to develop power soon. If anything, he's filling out more than expected, something that's probably going to result in a move to third down the line. He has legitimate star potential anyway. He figures to need three more years in the minors, but he could be a .300 hitter and 25-homer guy someday.
27. Jose Tabata - OF Yankees - DOB: 08/12/88 - ETA: 2010
Previous rankings: 2006 #136, mid-2006 #18, 2007 #17, mid-2007 #13
.307/.371/.392, 5 HR, 54 RBI, 70/33 K/BB, 15 SB in 411 AB (A Tampa)
The numbers Tabata has put up at such a young age relative to his competition the last two years make him look like a truly special player. However, his right wrist problems have to be taken into account. He's had issues for two years now, and it was reported by Baseball America last season that the Yankees had sent him to five different hand specialists. In August, he had the hamate bone removed. If it turns out that it was a cure-all, then Tabata should put in a nice showing as perhaps the youngest player in Double-A this season. If not, it'll be time to start getting very worried. Tabata projects as a quality defensive right fielder capable of hitting for average and displaying 20-homer, 40-double power.
28. Nick Adenhart - RHP Angels - DOB: 08/24/86 - ETA: May 2009
Previous rankings: mid-2006 #21, 2007 #21, mid-2007 #22
10-8, 3.65 ERA, 158 H, 116/65 K/BB in 153 IP (AA Arkansas)
Even though he had just nine starts in high-A ball under his belt, it didn't take Adenhart any time to adjust to Double-A last year, as he went 3-1 with a 0.80 ERA in his first five starts. He was inconsistent most of the rest of the season, and the way his stuff came and went suggested he wasn't always completely healthy. He ended up striking out 116 batters, down from 145 in 158 1/3 innings in 2006. When he's on, Adenhart is consistently in the low-90s with his fastball and shows a great hard curve. His changeup has turned into a very respectable third pitch. His velocity might be more of a constant if he did a better job of repeating his delivery. He'll open this season at Triple-A Salt Lake, and he projects as a long-term No. 2 starter for the Angels.
29. Ian Kennedy - RHP Yankees - DOB: 12/19/84 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: mid-2007 #50
6-1, 1.29 ERA, 39 H, 72/22 K/BB in 63 IP (A Tampa)
5-1, 2.59 ERA, 27 H, 57/17 K/BB in 48 2/3 IP (AA Trenton)
1-1, 2.08 ERA, 25 H, 34/11 K/BB in 34 2/3 IP (AAA Scranton)
1-0, 1.89 ERA, 13 H, 15/9 K/BB in 19 IP (AL New York)
Kennedy made some teams nervous when his velocity fell into the high-80s as a junior in college, but the Yankees took him 21st overall in the 2006 draft anyway and were pleasantly surprised when he resumed averaging about 90 mph with his fastball last season. As strong as his curveball and changeup are, he doesn't need to throw any harder than that to last as a middle-of-the-rotation starter in the majors. The Yankees will likely go into the season with him as their fifth starter if they decide to stick Chamberlain in the pen initially. An alternative would be for Kennedy to pitch in middle relief while waiting for a rotation spot to open up.
30. Elvis Andrus - SS Rangers - DOB: 08/26/88 - ETA: 2010
Previous rankings: 2006 #110, mid-2006 #96, 2007 #129, mid-2007 #109
.244/.330/.335, 3 HR, 37 RBI, 88/44 K/BB, 25 SB in 385 AB (A+ Myrtle Beach)
.300/.369/.373, 2 HR, 12 RBI, 19/10 K/BB, 15 SB in 110 AB (A+ Bakersfield)
.353/.411/.471, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 10/5 K/BB, 5 SB in 51 AB (AFL Surprise)
Andrus spent most of last year merely holding his own as an 18-year-old in high-A ball, but he improved considerably after joining the Rangers in the
Mark Teixeira deal, even if ballpark effects were partially responsible, and he experienced his most success to date in the Arizona Fall League in October and November. Andrus is a natural at shortstop with above average range and a strong arm. His approach at the plate still leaves something to be desired, but he's rarely overmatched by big fastballs or tough breaking balls and he's going to keep getting stronger as he fills out. Perhaps the power won't be there to make him a superstar, but he might be an above average major leaguer in every other respect and he's moving quickly enough that he could be an option for the Rangers as soon as the middle of 2009, when he'll still be just 20 years old. Ideally, they'll shift
Michael Young to third base to make room for him once he proves he's ready.
31. Max Scherzer - RHP Diamondbacks - DOB: 07/27/84 - ETA: July 2008
Previous rankings: mid-2007 #12
2-0, 0.53 ERA, 5 H, 30/2 K/BB in 17 IP (A+ Visalia)
4-4, 3.91 ERA, 64 H, 76/40 K/BB in 73 2/3 IP (AA Mobile)
1-1, 2.13 ERA, 6 H, 18/5 K/BB in 12 2/3 IP (AFL Scottsdale)
It took nearly a full year and $4.3 million in guaranteed money, but the Diamondbacks were able to sign the 11th overall selection in the 2006 draft. Scherzer, a Missouri product, got off to a dominant start after finally making his pro debut last June and ended up with 106 strikeouts in 90 2/3 innings in the minors. Working out of the pen in the Arizona Fall League, he had three times as many strikeouts as hits allowed. Scherzer could be the same kind of asset that
Brandon Morrow was for Seattle last year if the Diamondbacks were to turn to him as a reliever now. However, they plan to keep developing him as a starter and hope that his changeup comes along. He has a wicked slider, and his tops out at 95 mph as a starter, 98 mph as a reliever. He's just as likely to be a closer as a starter by 2010, but he has plenty of upside in either role.
32. Matt Antonelli - 2B Padres - DOB: 04/08/85 - ETA: April 2009
Previous rankings: mid-2007 #63
.314/.409/.499, 14 HR, 54 RBI, 58/53 K/BB, 18 SB in 347 AB (A+ Lake Elsinore)
.294/.395/.476, 7 HR, 24 RBI, 36/30 K/BB, 10 SB in 187 AB (AA San Antonio)
.214/.333/.268, 0 HR, 5 RBI, 9/10 K/BB, 0 SB in 56 AB (AFL Peoria)
Antonelli, a 2006 first-round pick out of Wake Forest, went from hitting no homers in 205 at-bats in his pro debut to slugging 21 last year. Especially promising was that his numbers carried over to Double-A without any real decline. He did slump in the AFL, but it was at the end of a long year. The Padres took a look at him in the outfield over the winter, but he's going to be their long-term second baseman, with a full-time job likely to come at the beginning of 2009. His ability to hit for average and draw walks will make him a great fit as a No. 2 hitter. The power probably won't be there to make him an All-Star, but there's nothing else not to like.
33. Gio Gonzalez - LHP Athletics - DOB: 09/19/85 - ETA: June 2008
Previous rankings: mid-2005 #81, 2006 #84, mid-2006 #62, 2007 #78, mid-2007 #21
9-7, 3.18 ERA, 116 H, 185/57 K/BB in 150 IP (AA Birmingham)
Gonzalez was at one point kicked off his high school baseball team and has now been traded three times as a minor leaguer, suggesting that red flags are warranted. However, one of the trades had the White Sox reacquiring him after giving him up for
Jim Thome and in none of them has he been undersold at all. It's mostly a case of lefties with huge strikeout rates always being in demand. Gonzalez does have some clear flaws. His velocity can dip from the usual low-90s to the 85-88 range on any given night, and his command is a little below average. When he's at his best, he dominates lefties and righties alike with his fastball, plus curve and solid changeup. Also, he's remained healthy throughout his minor league career despite his unimposing frame. He's never pitched in Triple-A, so the A's will probably have him start the season at Sacramento. However, he should be an option for their rotation by May or June. He currently projects as a No. 3, but if the command comes, he could be a No. 2.
34. Taylor Teagarden - C Rangers - DOB: 12/21/83 - ETA: April 2009
Previous rankings: mid-2007 #135
.315/.448/.606, 20 HR, 67 RBI, 89/65 K/BB, 2 SB in 292 AB (A+ Bakersfield)
.294/.357/.529, 7 HR, 16 RBI, 39/10 K/BB, 0 SB in 102 AB (AA Frisco)
.271/.345/.479, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 18/6 K/BB, 0 SB in 48 AB (AFL Surprise)
Depending on how much one wants to penalize
Jeff Clement for his glove, Teagarden ranks as the game's No. 2 or 3 catching prospect behind Baltimore's
Matt Wieters. Dating back to his days at the University of Texas, his defense has never been in question, though Tommy John surgery did limit him to just 38 games in his first year and a half as pro. His showing last year proved that he has the bat of a regular. He may not hit for average in the majors because of a rather long swing, but he should be a 15- or 20-homer guy and he'll draw enough walks to result in respectable OBPs. Now the Rangers just need to decide what to do with him. He's nearly ready to play in the majors, but he's stuck behind both
Jarrod Saltalamacchia and
Gerald Laird. He'd be wasted as a backup, so the Rangers will either need to trade him or move Salty to first base to make room for him in 2009.
35. Austin Jackson - OF Yankees - DOB: 02/01/87 - ETA: 2010
Previous rankings: none
.260/.336/.374, 3 HR, 25 BI, 59/24 K/BB, 19 SB in 235 AB (A- Charleston)
.345/.398/.566, 10 HR, 34 RBI, 48/22 K/BB, 13 SB in 258 AB (A Tampa)
.333/.600/.667, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 2/2 K/BB, 1 SB in 3 AB (AAA Scranton)
When Jackson was moved up to the FSL in late June despite a 710 OPS in the Sally League, it seemed to be just another case of the Yankees being way too aggressive with a prospect. However, Jackson responded to the challenge right away and upped his stock more than any other prospect in baseball during the second half of the season. Still something of a raw talent, Jackson could blossom into a 25-homer guy despite his modest build. He's continuing to learn how to play center field, but he has the speed to last there, and it looks like he'll be a pretty good OBP guy after cutting well back on the strikeouts last season. Expecting him to make
Melky Cabrera expendable after this season might be pushing it a little, but there's a good chance he'll prove to be the Yankees' long-term center fielder.
36. Chris Marrero - 1B/OF Nationals - DOB: 07/02/88 - ETA: 2010
Previous rankings: 2007 #117, mid-2007 #45
.293/.337/.545, 14 HR, 53 RBI, 39/14 K/BB, 0 SB in 222 AB (A- Hagerstown)
.259/.338/.431, 9 HR, 35 RBI, 63/32 K/BB, 0 SB in 255 AB (A Potomac)
Marrero showed exciting power in what was technically his age-18 season, delivering 23 homers, and it didn't take a ton of strikeouts for him to get there. The 15th overall pick in the 2006 draft was selected as a third baseman, but it was a given he wouldn't stay there. The Nationals used him in left field last year, but since he lacks range, they're probably going to move him to first this year. Marrero has star potential as a hitter, so the Nationals will find a spot for him when he's ready. He doesn't get himself out on bad breaking balls, and he dramatically improved his walk rate after moving up last year. He does need to learn which balls to pull and which to try to send back up the middle, but that could come with time.
37. Carlos Gonzalez - OF Athletics - DOB: 10/17/85 - ETA: Aug. 2008
Previous rankings: mid-2005 #139, 2006 #92, mid-2006 #19, 2007 #34, mid-2007 #49
.286/.330/.476, 16 HR, 75 RBI, 103/32 K/BB, 9 SB in 458 AB (AA Mobile)
.310/.396/.500, 1 HR, 11 RBI, 6/6 K/BB, 1 SB in 42 AB (AAA Tucson)
Gonzalez isn't at all the kind of player the A's usually look for when trading for prospects, but he has the raw talent to make the
Dan Haren deal a winner for Oakland. There are few minor leaguers who excite scouts as much as Gonzalez does when he's in the box. His lightning quick swing should make him a 30-homer guy after he finishes filling out, and he's hit for average everywhere he's played. That he doesn't walk is a problem, but at least his strikeout totals aren't overly excessive. He's better against breaking balls from right-handers than most players his age. Curves and sliders from left-handers have been known to make him look bad. While there's been talk that Gonzalez could win a spot coming out of spring training, he clearly needs a year in Triple-A. The A's will keep him and hope he develops into the same kind of offensive force as another player who didn't fit their mold,
Miguel Tejada.
38. Reid Brignac - SS Rays - DOB: 01/16/86 - ETA: April 2009
Previous rankings: mid-2006 #83, 2007 #31, mid-2003 #23
.260/.328/.433, 17 HR, 81 RBI, 94/55 K/BB, 15 SB in 527 AB (AA Montgomery)
.177/.218/.248, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 16/3 K/BB, 1 SB in 113 AB (AFL Scottsdale)
Brignac secured a spot as one of the game's top shortstop prospects while hitting .321/.376/.539 between Single-A Visalia and Double-A Montgomery in 2006, but he couldn't keep it going last season. He did improve as the year went on, though that was versus diluted talent in the Southern League. In the AFL, he managed just four extra-base hits and three walks in 113 at-bats. He was even caught stealing four times in five attempts. Brignac's left-handed swing promises 25-homer potential, and he likely will show the ability to hit for average once he settles into the majors. He still might be more of a bottom-half-of-the-order guy, like
Khalil ******, but he will have a lengthy career as a regular. Helping his case is that he's answered every question about his ability to stay at shortstop. The Rays will go with
Jason Bartlett this year and then consider turning the position over to Brignac in 2009.
39. Eric Hurley - RHP Rangers - DOB: 09/17/85 - ETA: July 2008
Previous rankings: mid-2006 #56, 2007 #44, mid-2007 #16
7-2, 3.25 ERA, 71 H, 76/27 K/BB in 88 2/3 IP (AA Frisco)
4-7, 4.91 ERA, 65 H, 59/28 K/BB in 73 1/3 IP (AAA Oklahoma)
Hurley didn't handle the in-season jump to Triple-A last season as well as he did his first taste of Double-A in the second half of 2006, but he still allowed under a hit an inning and struck out two for every batter he walked. The real problem is that he continued to give up a homer a start. In all, he allowed 26 in 162 innings, a scary total considering he's set to pitch half his games in Arlington upon reaching the majors. Hurley's low-90s fastball, slider and changeup are all quality pitches, but none generate a lot of groundballs. He'll be a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter for the Rangers anyway, but he may never post a sub-4.00 ERA until he makes his way elsewhere. He'll likely spend a couple of more months in Triple-A this year and then move into the Texas rotation in June or July.
40. Jeff Clement - C Mariners - DOB: 08/21/83 - ETA: July 2008
Previous rankings: 2006 #63, mid-2006 #43, 2007 #58, mid-2007 #34
.275/.370/.497, 20 HR, 80 RBI, 88/61 K/BB, 0 SB in 455 AB (AAA Tacoma)
.375/.474/.813, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 3/3 K/BB, 0 SB in 16 AB (Seattle)
.269/.367/.481, 3 HR, 12 RBI, 13/7 K/BB, 0 SB in 52 AB (AFL Peoria)
Clement, the third overall selection in the 2005 draft, solidified his status as an offensive force last season, hitting 20 homers in Triple-A and a pair of clutch bombs in a brief look in September. He's strong enough against right-handers that he'd most likely be an upgrade for the Mariners in the DH spot right away. However, the team is expected to continue developing him as a catcher, possibly with the intention of having him replace free-agent-to-be
Kenji Johjima in 2009. The Mariners like how he's come along as a receiver, but he lacks quickness behind the plate and he'll be a liability trying to throw out basestealers. He could survive as a catcher anyway, but he might be more valuable as a first baseman. Clement doesn't fan a lot for a power hitter, and he retains his good approach versus lefties. In another ballpark, he'd be a candidate for 25 or 30 homers per year, though he figures to fall short of that at Safeco. The Mariners are expected to send him back to Triple-A to start this year, but if they're in contention in the second half, they'll want him around as a part-time player or maybe even as their primary DH.
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41. Chris Volstad - RHP Marlins - DOB: 09/23/86 - ETA: July 2008
Previous rankings: 2007 #128, mid-2007 #51
8-9, 4.50 ERA, 152 H, 93/37 K/BB in 126 IP (A Jupiter)
4-2, 3.16 ERA, 41 H, 25/10 K/BB in 42 2/3 IP (AA Carolina)
The first of the Marlins' five first- or supplemental first-round picks in 2005, Volstad has done almost exactly what was expected of him so far. While he allowed 193 hits and struck out just 118 batters in his 168 2/3 innings last season, his sinker still made him pretty effective, and he managed to improve after being promoted to Double-A. In fact, nine of the 15 earned runs he allowed there came in one of his seven starts. The 6-foot-7 Volstad could continue adding velocity as he fills out, and he's showing a most consistent curveball to go along with his sinker. If his changeup develops, he could be a No. 2 starter. Expect him to make at least a dozen starts for Florida this season.
42. Adam Miller - RHP Indians - DOB: 11/26/84 - ETA: Sept. 2008
Previous rankings: mid-2004 #101, 2005 #8, mid-2005 #26, 2006 #35, mid-2006 #31, 2007 #22, mid-2007 #14
5-4, 4.82 ERA, 68 H, 68/21 K/BB in 65 1/3 IP (AAA Buffalo)
0-2, 9.00 ERA, 18 H, 11/3 K/BB in 13 IP (AFL Surprise)
This is going to be a big year for Miller after he missed time with more elbow problems and a finger injury last season. One of the most talented pitchers in the minors, Miller can dominate with mid-90s heat and a hard slider. The changeup that helped establish him as a top prospect has suffered due to the time he's missed the last three seasons. Still, if his arm holds up, he's not going to need an above average change to become a successful big leaguer. Miller needs to put his elbow problems behind him once and for all. The strained tendon in his finger that shut him down last season probably isn't going to be a major concern going forward, but the elbow has held him back since 2005. If healthy, he'll force his way into the Indians' plans before the end of the season, perhaps as a reliever at first.
43. Josh Vitters - 3B Cubs - DOB: 08/27/89 - ETA: 2012
Previous rankings: none
.067/.094/.067, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 9/1 K/BB, 0 SB in 30 AB (AZL Cubs)
.190/.361/.190, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 5/2 K/BB, 1 SB in 21 AB (SS-A Boise)
Vitters didn't hit at all after being drafted third overall by the Cubs last season, but that's sure to prove to be an aberration. Vitters can spray liners all over the park, and he should turn into a 25-homer guy capable of hitting for high averages. Like the slugger he could replace in Chicago someday,
Aramis Ramirez, he probably won't walk or strikeout a whole bunch. A shaky defender at third base, he'll face a move to left field unless he dramatically improves his footwork and his throwing accuracy. Ideally, he'd stay at the hot corner and take over after Ramirez's contract expires in four years (though Ramirez can opt out after 2010). Logic suggests he'd have a better chance of becoming an All-Star there, though
David Wright will have something to say about it.
44. Neil Walker - 3B Pirates - DOB: 09/10/85 - ETA: April 2009
Previous rankings: mid-2005 #129, 2006 #114, mid-2006 #107, 2007 #105, mid-2007 #30
.288/.362/.462, 13 HR, 66 RBI, 73/53 K/BB, 9 SB in 431 AB (AA Altoona)
.203/.261/.250, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 13/2 K/BB, 1 SB in 64 AB (AAA Indianapolis)
Walker has received unnecessary late-season promotions four years running since being drafted in the first round in 2004 and flopped each of the last three times. Though the Pirates have been aggressive, it's not like he's ever hit particularly well while being pushed through the system. Last year's 800 OPS in Double-A was the first time he reached that mark at any stop. Walker made clear gains in the power department and showed more patience at the plate. A converted catcher, it looks like he'll be an average third baseman in time, though he still needs to cut down on the miscues. A likely .290-.300 hitter in his better years, he should prove to be a solid long-term regular. It remains to be seen whether he'll continue taking walks and he'll probably top out at 20 homers, so stardom figures to elude him.
45. Wladimir Balentien - OF Mariners - DOB: 07/02/84 - ETA: April 2009
Previous rankings: mid-2007 #39
.291/.362/.509, 24 HR, 84 RBI, 105/54 K/BB, 15 SB in 477 AB (AAA Tacoma)
.666/.500/2.000, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 0/0 K/BB, 0 SB in 3 AB (Seattle)
Triunfel is awfully intriguing and Clement is no slouch, but Balentien has the best power potential in the Seattle organization. The native of Curacao made terrific progress in his first year in Triple-A, though he did fade as the season went on. A shorter swing allowed him to make contact more frequently without robbing him of the ability to yank pitches out of the park. Balentien does make mistakes in the outfield, but since he's a fine athlete with a very good arm, he could be an above average right fielder in time. He still needs to do a better job of recognizing breaking balls, but he looks like a much better bet to make it as a quality regular than he did a year ago. One more year in Triple-A should be sufficient, and the Mariners can afford to give it to him after signing
Brad Wilkerson.
46. Lars Anderson - 1B Red Sox - DOB: 09/25/87 - ETA: 2010
Previous rankings: mid-2007 #74
.288/.385/.443, 10 HR, 69 RBI, 112/71 K/BB, 2 SB in 458 AB (A- Greenville)
.343/.489/.486, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 9/11 K/BB, 0 SB in 35 AB (A Lancaster)
The Red Sox gambled on several big-ticket players in the 2006 draft, and while they couldn't land
Matt LaPorta after selecting him in the 14th round, they did get Anderson, an 18th-rounder, to forgo his college scholarship by giving him supplemental first-round money. It looks like an outstanding investment so far. Anderson has an advanced approach and a swing that promises 30-homer power after he fills out. His glove lags behind his bat, but he'll be an adequate first baseman in time. He could prove to be a No. 3 or No. 4 hitter in a major league lineup.
47. Jason Heyward - OF Braves - DOB: 08/09/89 - ETA: 2013
Previous rankings: none
.296/.355/.556, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 4/2 K/BB, 1 SB in 27 AB (R GCL Braves)
.313/.353/.375, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 5/1 K/BB, 0 SB in 16 AB (R Danville)
The Braves went with history and selected a Georgia high school product 14th overall in the 2007 draft. In this case, it didn't look like a reach at all. In fact, they might have gotten the bargain of the first round,
Rick Porcello excepted. Heyward's build and powerful swing suggest he'll be a 35-homer guy someday, and he's quite disciplined for a high school product. The Braves moved him from center to right after drafting him. He should be above average there in time, but he still figures to end up in left if
Jeff Francoeur proves to be a permanent fixture in Atlanta. He's the best bet of any of Atlanta's prospects to develop into a star.
48. Carlos Carrasco - RHP Phillies - DOB: 03/21/87 - ETA: Aug. 2008
Previous rankings: 2007 #93, mid-2007 #29
6-2, 2.84 ERA, 49 H, 53/22 K/BB in 69 2/3 IP (A Clearwater)
6-4, 4.86 ERA, 65 H, 49/46 K/BB in 70 1/3 IP (AA Reading)
With the way he was rolling at Clearwater, it appeared for a time as though Carrasco had a chance to follow
Kyle Kendrick to the majors last season. However, he ran into a speed bump at Double-A Reading, where he barely managed more strikeouts than walks in 70 innings. Even in the FSL, he was giving up more homers than expected. Overall, he allowed 17, which figures to be a problem for a guy set to pitch in Citizens Bank Park someday. Carrasco has no shortage of stuff. He can dial his fastball up to 94 mph, and he has a lot of movement on his changeup. That his curveball hasn't turned into a strikeout pitch has lowered his ceiling a bit, but he still figures to be a No. 3 or maybe a No. 2.
49. Jed Lowrie - SS Red Sox - DOB: 04/17/84 - ETA: April 2009
Previous rankings: mid-2007 #71
.297/.410/.501, 8 HR, 49 RBI, 58/65 K/BB, 5 SB in 337 AB (AA Portland)
.300/.356/.506, 5 HR, 21 RBI, 33/12 K/BB, 0 SB in 160 AB (AAA Pawtucket)
.163/.236/.245, 1 HR, 14 RBI, 14/10 K/BB, 3 SB in 98 AB (AFL Mesa)
Lowrie isn't the new
Dustin Pedroia, but the two share some similarities. Both put up great numbers at top college programs (Arizona State and Stanford, respectively), yet neither was looked at as a true first-rounder coming out of school because of a perceived lack of athleticism. The Red Sox drafted both and used them at shortstop, even though neither figured to stay there for long. Lowrie has displayed surprisingly strong range at the position, but since he doesn't have a great arm, he still projects better at second. One of the best hitters in the minors over the final four months of last season, Lowrie could be a doubles machine at Fenway. He's also strong enough to hit 10 homers per year, and he knows the value of a walk. Because they have no place to play him, the Red Sox are open to trading him. However, they're not going to let a potential above average regular go cheap.
50. J.R. Towles - C Astros - DOB: 02/11/84 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: 2007 #135, mid-2007 #112
.200/.339/.278, 0 HR, 11 RBI, 15/12 K/BB, 3 SB in 90 AB (A+ Salem)
.324/.425/.551, 11 HR, 49 RBI, 35/23 K/BB, 9 SB in 216 AB (AA Corpus Christi)
.279/.354/.279, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 7/4 K/BB, 2 SB in 43 AB (AAA Round Rock)
.375/.432/.575, 1 HR, 12 RBI, 1/3 K/BB, 0 SB in 40 AB (Houston)
Towles, a 2004 20th-round pick out of a Texas junior college, got his first ever in-season promotion last year as a result of fellow prospect Lou Santangelo's 50-game PED suspension. He earned two more on his own and is poised to be Houston's primary catcher this season, a scenario that seemed highly unlikely a year ago. Because of injuries, Towles has just 950 professional at-bats to his credit and he wasn't very productive in three of his six minor league stops. There's a lot to like about Towles' all-around offensive game and he's made a lot of strides defensively, but if it wasn't for his highly successful 40-AB stint last September, there's little chance the Astros would have given him a job over the winter. If he's turned the corner health-wise, he should prove to be a fine long-term regular capable of several .280-15 HR seasons. Still, growing pains are likely in store for 2008.
51. Mike Moustakas - SS Royals - DOB: 09/11/88 - ETA: 2011
Previous rankings: none
.293/.383/.439, 0 HR, 10 RBI, 8/4 K/BB, 0 SB in 41 AB (R Idaho Falls)
Moustakas might have been a first-rounder as a pitcher, but everyone agreed his bat was even more promising and the Royals took him second overall last year. Signed just before the deadline for $4 million, he began his pro career as a shortstop, though few expect him to stay there. His build and arm would seem to make him an ideal candidate to become a catcher if he were less promising offensively. The Royals, though, aren't going to jeopardize his star potential. On another team, he'd probably end up at third base. However, with
Alex Gordon entrenched there in Kansas City, it's at least as likely that Moustakas will shift to the outfield at some point. Moustakas could develop into a .300 hitter and a 25-homer guy in time. He'll likely open this year at low-A Burlington.
52. Steve Pearce - 1B Pirates - DOB: 04/13/83 - ETA: Aug. 2008
Previous rankings: mid-2007 #104
.347/.412/.867, 11 HR, 24 RBI, 13/8 K/BB, 2 SB in 75 AB (A+ Lynchburg)
.334/.400/.586, 14 HR, 72 RBI, 45/33 K/BB, 7 SB in 290 AB (AA Altoona)
.320/.366/.557, 6 HR, 17 RBI, 12/6 K/BB, 5 SB in 122 AB (AAA Indianapolis)
.294/.342/.397, 0 HR, 6 RBI, 12/5 K/BB, 2 SB in 68 AB (Pittsburgh)
Pearce looks like more than just the new
Brad Eldred after slamming 31 homers and posting a 1000 OPS in the minors last season. Not a hulking slugger, Pearce checks in at 5-foot-11 and 200-210 pounds. Quick wrists allow him to generate his power, and he doesn't have a long swing that would make him prone to big strikeout numbers. The Pirates didn't realize what they had in him when they pursued
Adam LaRoche so heavily, and they opted to try him in right field in the majors last season with first base cut off for the foreseeable future. He doesn't belong out there, but he's not such a downgrade from
Xavier Nady that'd it make a huge difference if he was plugged in as a regular right now. He'll be more of a 25- than a 30-35 homer guy in the majors, but he should be a nice asset when he's cheap. The Pirates will probably send him back to Triple-A to begin this year.
53. Ian Stewart - 3B Rockies - DOB: 04/05/85 - ETA: June 2008
Previous rankings: 2004 #98, mid-2004 #29, 2005 #7, mid-2005 #11, 2006 #20, mid-2006 #27, 2007 #50, mid-2007 #37
.304/.379/.478, 15 HR, 65 RBI, 92/49 K/BB, 11 SB in 414 AB (AAA Colorado Springs)
.209/.261/.372, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 17/1 K/BB, 0 SB in 43 AB (Colorado)
Stewart was supposedly part of the Rockies' second-base competition entering the spring, but he never had a realistic chance of beating out
Jayson Nix, and even though he hit well in March, he was sent down. Another year of Triple-A is what he needs anyway. His 857 OPS last year was nothing special considering the conditions at Colorado Springs. In fact, he hasn't put up particularly good numbers at any point since he was at low-A Asheville in 2004. His defense at third base remains rough, though he has the tools to be more than adequate. He was never likely to cut it at second. Even though he's just now turning 23, this is a big year for Stewart. If he goes out and slugs .550, he'll be a hot property in trade talks, while another season like his 2007 would have teams questioning his long-term upside. It'd be a disappointment if he joins the
Mike Lamb/
Ty Wigginton class of third basemen.
54. Luke Hochevar - RHP Royals - DOB: 09/15/83 - ETA: June 2008
Previous rankings: 2007 #38, mid-2007 #31
3-6, 4.69 ERA, 110 H, 94/26 K/BB in 94 IP (AA Wichita)
1-3, 5.12 ERA, 53 H, 44/21 K/BB in 58 IP (AAA Omaha)
0-1, 2.13 ERA, 11 H, 5/4 K/BB in 12 2/3 IP (Kansas City)
Hochevar, the first overall pick in the 2006 draft, reached the majors in his first full pro season and tasted success in one start and three relief appearances for the Royals, but his ceiling just doesn't seem as high as it once did. While he occasionally touched 95 mph on the gun at the University of Tennessee, he peaks at around 93 mph now, and he doesn't induce many grounders with the pitch. As a result, he allowed 24 homers in the minors last season. He can get strikeouts with his curve, and both his changeup and slider show promise. Still, after calling him a No. 2 or No. 3 in last year's top 10, I'd label him a No. 3 or No. 4 now. He'll contend for a rotation spot this spring, and the Royals are also looking at him as a possible short-term reliever.
55. Ryan Sweeney - OF Athletics - DOB: 02/20/85 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: mid-2004 #124, 2005 #80, mid-2005 #94, 2006 #85, mid-2006 #52, 2007 #23, mid-2007 #25
.270/.348/.398, 10 HR, 47 RBI, 71/48 K/BB, 8 SB in 397 AB (AAA Charlotte)
.200/.265/.333, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 5/4 K/BB, 0 SB in 45 AB (Chicago - AL)
.286/.347/.345, 1 HR, 13 RBI, 18/9 K/BB, 5 SB in 84 AB (AFL Phoenix)
The White Sox put Sweeney in high-A ball in his first full pro season and later got discouraged when he still wasn't ready for the majors at age 21. His genuine lack of progress in his age-22 season seemed to be the final straw, and it was no longer a matter of if he'd be traded by the time he was included in the
Nick Swisher deal. The change of scenery should be good for Sweeney. Despite always being among the youngest players in his leagues, Sweeney has hit .289 as a minor leaguer. The power has yet to come and probably never will in the quantity that the White Sox expected, but he has enough strength to average 15-20 homers per year. On defense, he's a potential top-notch right fielder with enough speed to play center, though that'll probably be gone by the time he reaches his prime. The A's could keep him as a fourth outfielder for now or send him down to play regularly. He doesn't possess
Carlos Gonzalez's offensive potential, so if he's going to be a starter for the A's in 2009, it may have to be in center.
56. Adrian Cardenas - 2B Phillies - DOB: 10/10/87 - ETA: 2011
Previous rankings: mid-2007 #93
.295/.354/.417, 9 HR, 79 RBI, 80/47 K/BB, 20 SB in 499 AB (A- Lakewood)
Cardenas, a 2006 supplemental first-round pick, hardly posted eye-catching numbers in his first full pro season, yet he fared quite well for a high school product in the Sally League. Excluding his poor April, he had a .366 OBP, and he finished with a .301 average in lefty-lefty matchups. It remains a mystery where Cardenas will end up on the diamond. He was drafted as a shortstop, but he would have needed to move even if not for
Jimmy Rollins' presence. He should prove to be an average second baseman, though he faces a similar obstacle there. His below average arm would make him less than ideal at third, and he probably wouldn't have the range for center field. It'd be a real shame if he ended up in left, though he may have the bat to carry the position. It's possible that he'll be trade bait for the Phillies before he's ready for the majors in 2010 or 2011.
57. Desmond Jennings - OF Rays - DOB: 10/30/86 - ETA: 2010
Previous rankings: mid-2007 #88
.315/.401/.465, 9 HR, 37 RBI, 53/45 K/BB, 45 SB in 387 AB (A- Columbus)
The Rays hardly seemed to need another top-flight outfield prospect, but they got one last year, as Jennings blossomed less than a year after he was stolen in the 10th round. Now that
Delmon Young and
Elijah Dukes are gone, with
Rocco Baldelli a possibility to follow at some point in the next year, there's actually a pretty clear path for Jennings to the majors, though he's going to need another two seasons in the minors first. Jennings has terrific speed and should develop into an excellent center fielder in time, though he doesn't have a great arm. He shows leadoff potential in the batter's box, and it looks like he's already well on his way to developing modest power. If he can handle more advanced breaking balls, he could become a star.
58. Scott Elbert - LHP Dodgers - DOB: 05/13/85 - ETA: July 2009
Previous rankings: 2006 #118, mid-2006 #37, 2007 #35, mid-2007 #46
0-1, 3.86 ERA, 6 H, 24/10 K/BB in 14 IP (AA Jacksonville)
Elbert, a 2004 first-round pick, established himself as one of the game's top lefty prospects in 2006, but was limited to just three starts last season before surgery on his left shoulder. While no tears in his labrum or rotator cuff were discovered, he still wasn't ready to return this spring. If he regains his stuff, Elbert will show three major league pitches in his low-90s fastball, curve and changeup. He does struggle to throw strikes, and his rather violent windup may have led to his shoulder problems. If he could tone it down a bit and still throw 88-91 mph with better command, he might be better off in the long run. He'll probably resume pitching in the minors in May or June. The surgery has backed up his timetable by at least a year.
59. Geovany Soto - C Cubs - DOB: 01/20/83 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: none
.353/.424/.652, 26 HR, 109 RBI, 94/53 K/BB, 0 SB in 385 AB (AAA Iowa)
.389/.433/.667, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 14/5 K/BB, 0 SB in 54 AB (NL Chicago)
Soto entered 2007 as a .262/.344/.371 hitter in 1,574 minor league at-bats. He hit four homers in 292 at-bats at Iowa in 2005 and six homers in 342 at-bats in 2006. His sudden emergence as arguably the top performer in the minors was surprising to say the least. The weight he dropped over the previous winter certainly played some role. Soto continued to excel in 54 at-bats for the Cubs, leaving no doubt that the team would go forward with him as a regular this year. Soto has always been solid defensively. His slow release takes away from a strong arm behind the plate, but he's average at cutting down baserunners anyway. He was a candidate for a long career as a backup even when he wasn't showing much offensively. He can't possibly be as good going forward as he was last year, but he was so impressive that he has to be looked at as an above average offensive catcher for now. It's really anyone's guess what kind of player he'll be in three years.
60. Jeff Niemann - RHP Rays - DOB: 02/28/83 - ETA: July 2008
Previous rankings: 2005 #60, mid-2005 #74, 2006 #83, mid-2006 #49, 2007 #53, mid-2007 #32
12-6, 3.98 ERA, 144 H, 123/46 K/BB in 131 IP (AAA Durham)
Niemann finally managed to stay healthy last year, with his only missed time coming in early August because of shoulder fatigue. Still, the 6-foot-9 right-hander didn't display the same kind of velocity that made him the fourth overall selection in the 2004 draft. He still peaks in the mid-90s with his heater, but he was often under that, and neither his curve nor his slider resulted in as many strikeouts as hoped. He's going to have to adapt in order to begin fulfilling his potential and a legitimate changeup would help. He still has above average stuff, so there will be no giving up on him anytime soon. There's a good chance he'll be one of the first starters called up by the Rays this season.