Tool's garbage picks

tool21

tool21

EOG Dedicated
Was going to post last night on NJ and the over....would of went 0-2 so good thing i didn't. Once again fading myself seems to be the way to go. Actually....fading the public seems to be the way to go for my capping because when i like a game so does 70% of the public. If majority of the public is on my pick i am going to fade it. If majority is NOT on my pick i am going to stick with it. Here are today's garbage NBA make me broke plays.

**Plays are ones that i like. I will come back before tip off and pick whether i fade or play.

Picks i like:

NY +9 75.74%
Ind if at +7
Ind over 185.5
SA over 187
Char +10 36.88%
Char over 194
Utah over 190.5
LAL +10.5 71.78%
LAL under 219
Por +9.5 23.77%
 
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T

ThaFiahMan

EOG Enthusiast
Re: Tool's garbage picks

obviouslly just play the suns (LA's got kobe and thats it), weed blazers (clipp joints spent me out a huge victory last night comin back big, bak 2 bak), Bobcats(they are hot with the spread right now)


and another play i stil like is the pistons, and nuggs both gonna be repped by the public im sure


there are the fiah "garbage" picks, but i think im breaking 500 in this forum so maybe not



HOLLLLLLLLLLA
 
tool21

tool21

EOG Dedicated
Re: Tool's garbage picks

NY +9 - FADE NJ -9
Ind +7
Ind over 185.5
SA over 187
Char +10
Char over 194 -FADE Cha Under 194
Utah over 190.5 -FADE Utah under 190.5
LAL +10.5 -FADE Pho -10
LAL under 219
Por +9.5
 
JTGAMBLE

JTGAMBLE

2
Re: Tool's garbage picks

GL tool Im on NJ,Char and Phoenix these fades have been very good the last 4 fridays
 
tool21

tool21

EOG Dedicated
Re: Tool's garbage picks

NY +9 - FADE NJ -9 Won
Ind +7 WON
Ind over 185.5 WON
SA over 187 WON
Char +10 LOSS
Char over 194 -FADE Cha Under 194 WON
Utah over 190.5 -FADE Utah under 190.5 LOSS
LAL +10.5 -FADE Pho -10 Loss
LAL under 219 WON
Por +9.5 LOSS

 
tool21

tool21

EOG Dedicated
Re: Tool's garbage picks

Just testing some things out for myself....it's easier to keep track if it's on this board.

I am going to keep track of my original likes, ALL fades, and half fades. The half fades is just the games i like BUT if majority of the public is on what i like i will fade it.

OL 6-4
AF 4-6
HF 6-4
 
tool21

tool21

EOG Dedicated
Re: Tool's garbage picks

4/14/07

What i like:

Orl over 185
ATL +15.5
Den under 221.5
Char under 208.5
NO +11.5
NO over 189.5
 
T

ThaFiahMan

EOG Enthusiast
Re: Tool's garbage picks

interesting system mang, keep lettin us know for sure what your record is when your following the system and incorporate the public into the equation....so the picks where u stay with it when you end up not on the public and where you switch it up when it looks like "your" pick is on the donkey public side are of high interest here. gl
 
tool21

tool21

EOG Dedicated
Re: Tool's garbage picks

Fiah, i'm going to track this for awhile to see if it's worth it. My general idea behind the half fade picks is if i like a pick and the public is also all over my pick, then it's probably too good to be true. The books usually know something that the public doesn't, so that is why i will fade. I have no good source for public betting % besides the trial version of sportsinsights and wagerline.
 
tool21

tool21

EOG Dedicated
Re: Tool's garbage picks

HF play

Orlando Under 185
- Wagerline had 58% on the over, so i'll take the under.
 
tool21

tool21

EOG Dedicated
Re: Tool's garbage picks

Tests for today:

OL: (6-4)

 Orl over 185
ATL +15.5
Den under 221.5
Char under 208.5
NO +11.5
NO over 189.5

HF: (6-4)

(58.82% FADE) Orl under 185.5
(64% FADE) Cle -15.5
Den under 221.5
(54% FADE) Char over 208.5
(59% FADE) Hou -11.5
(56% FADE) NO under 189.5

Wagerline top % fades: (2-1)

(64% FADE) Cle -15.5
 
tool21

tool21

EOG Dedicated
Re: Tool's garbage picks

Tests for today:

OL: (6-4)

 Orl over 185
ATL +15.5
Den under 221.5
Char under 208.5
NO +11.5
NO over 189.5

HF: (6-4)

(58.82% FADE) Orl under 185.5
(64% FADE) Cle -15.5
Den under 221.5
(54% FADE) Char over 208.5
(59% FADE) Hou -11.5
(56% FADE) NO under 189.5

Wagerline top % fades: (2-1)

(64% FADE) Cle -15.5

Sportsbook.com system (4-1 yesterday)

Orl over 185
ATL +15.5
Den under 221.5
NO +11.5
NO over 189.5
 
tool21

tool21

EOG Dedicated
Re: Tool's garbage picks

adding New system that involves line movement

NS: (4-0 yesterday)

Orlando over 185
Den under 221.5
NO over 189.5

This system seems like it has the best chance of survival!!
 
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tool21

tool21

EOG Dedicated
Re: Tool's garbage picks

Tons cannon, i'm just full of ideas. If they don't work i just keep on trying.
 
Cloverleaf

Cloverleaf

EOG Dedicated
Re: Tool's garbage picks

Cannon, for God's sake...write down your systems for college football
and college basketball so you don't forget. Football will be here before
you know it. Sorry to jump in your thread Tool.
 
Cannon

Cannon

Banned
Re: Tool's garbage picks

That is how we came up with ours have to work at it and discover what works. They are out their.


Cloverleaf this is a system for you.

When you have just two games in a sport for the day such as NBA, NCAA baskets and foots and NFL. Always and I mean always bet the big favorite and the small dog. I went against it the other night in the NBA with NJ + 6 1/2 and the lakers - 2 1/2 and I went 0-2. If you bet this for a entire year you will make a ton of $$$. I has won $$$ for years. Only works when you have 2 games in that sport.
 
T

ThaFiahMan

EOG Enthusiast
Re: Tool's garbage picks

tool21 said:
HF play

Orlando Under 185
- Wagerline had 58% on the over, so i'll take the under.
Click to expand...



was on the opposite side of this one but also ended up loser (by 2 points) taking the cleveland over, so if the question was: is there any value in betting these fairly low o/u's?

No, but i would still tend to favor the over.......prime example @ the opposite end of the spectrum would be the o/u on the Nuggets. The humber was 222 but i still figured those teams to go OVER but immediately switched my pick, when i saw waht the consensus on here was... to go WITH the public and bet under which was obv a huge mistake....u live u learn
 
tool21

tool21

EOG Dedicated
Re: Tool's garbage picks

I still think the Denver under was the play to go with....you can't help it that two teams just don't want to play defense. Just one of them games.
 
tool21

tool21

EOG Dedicated
Re: Tool's garbage picks

Results:

OL: (6-4)

 Orl over 185 Won
ATL +15.5 Loss
Den under 221.5 Loss
Char under 208.5 Won
NO +11.5 Won
NO over 189.5 Won

10-6 (62.5%)
HF: (6-4)

(58.82% FADE) Orl under 185.5 Loss
(64% FADE) Cle -15.5 Won
Den under 221.5 Loss
(54% FADE) Char over 208.5 Loss
(59% FADE) Hou -11.5 Loss
(56% FADE) NO under 189.5 Loss

7-9 (43%)
Wagerline top % fades: (2-1)

(64% FADE) Cle -15.5 Won

3-1 (75%)
Sportsbook.com system (4-1 yesterday)

Orl over 185 Won
ATL +15.5 Loss
Den under 221.5 Loss
NO +11.5 Won
NO over 189.5 Won

7-3 (70%)

NS: (4-0 yesterday)

Orlando over 185 Won
Den under 221.5 Loss
NO over 189.5 Won

6-1 (85%)
 
tool21

tool21

EOG Dedicated
Re: Tool's garbage picks

4/15/07

OL: (10-6)

Wash +6
NJ over 189
Sac +10
Min under 219
SA over 187
NY +13
Phi over 183
Sea +11

Sportsbook.com system (7-3)

NJ over 189
Min under 219
SA over 187
Phi over 183
 
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tool21

tool21

EOG Dedicated
Re: Tool's garbage picks

tool21 said:
4/15/07

OL: (10-6)

Wash +6
NJ over 189
Sac +10
Min under 219
SA over 187
NY +13
Phi over 183
Sea +11

Sportsbook.com system (7-3)

NJ over 189
Min under 219
SA over 187
Phi over 183
Click to expand...

NS: (6-1)

NJ over 189
 
tool21

tool21

EOG Dedicated
Re: Tool's garbage picks

adding:

NS:

Sac +10
iffy play because a lot of late money came in on LAC just going to put a small wager on it. Big plays are the previous 2
 
tool21

tool21

EOG Dedicated
Re: Tool's garbage picks

Results:

OL: (10-6)

Wash +6 Loss
NJ over 189 Won
Sac +10 Won
Min under 219 Loss
SA over 187 Loss
NY +13 Won
Phi over 183 Won
Sea +11 Pending

14-9 (60%)


Sportsbook.com system (7-3)

NJ over 189 Won
Min under 219 Loss
SA over 187 Loss
Phi over 183 Won

9-5 (64%)

NS: (6-1)

SA over 187 Loss
NJ over 189 Won
Sac +10 Won
Phi over 184 Won

9-2 (81%)
 
tool21

tool21

EOG Dedicated
Re: Tool's garbage picks

4/16/07

This is who i like:

OL (14-9)

Bos +8
Atl Under 208
Pho +5.5
Min under 218
Por +13
NO under 215
 
MrSensation

MrSensation

2
Re: Tool's garbage picks

Tool could you explain the line movement system, if you want too. Just wanted to see the thought process on it.
 
tool21

tool21

EOG Dedicated
Re: Tool's garbage picks

Mr. sensation, all the systems deal with the original games i like OL. The line movement system is basically whichever games of mine that i like that money is pouring into (Line movement against me), i make those the picks.
 
tool21

tool21

EOG Dedicated
Re: Tool's garbage picks

4/16/07

Full Systems:

This is who i like:

OL (14-9)

Bos +8
NJ over 191.5
Atl Under 208
Pho +5.5
Min under 218
Por +12.5
NO under 215

Sportsbook.com system (9-5)

Nj over 191.5
Pho +5.5
NO under 215

NS: (9-2)

***These plays could change at any time. If most of the money is coming in on one my plays then it is an NS play Buy back to original line.

NJ over 191.5 ***
NO under 215 ***

Will be back at 7 to confirm
 
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