Baseball--of the big 3 sports in the US= Most Honest?
- Thread starter Whoson1st
- Start date
4625
2
Re: Baseball--of the big 3 sports in the US= Most Honest?
Interesting topic. My first instinct is to recall all the times I swore that NFL stands for the National Fix League, due to extremely critical calls that quite frankly, can be made on every play, i.e., holding. I do think that baseball umpires have less effect on the outcome of the game than to the referees in the League or the Association, because their decisions do not affect the actual physical activities in playing the game, with the exception of the balk, which in any event is a fairly clear-cut rule with limited opportunity for "interpretation." On the other hand, a close call on a third strike at a critical time can have a dramatic effect on a baseball game, but if it's that close on a potential third strike, most players are swinging anyway.
If I was forced to render an opinion, I would think that if anything shady is going on in the League, it has more to do with totals, rather than sides. The referee work in the Association is probably the hardest to perform, but also the worst-performed, in my opinion, and often has an outcome-determinative impact, which leaves much room for accusations of manipulating the outcome.
Interesting topic. My first instinct is to recall all the times I swore that NFL stands for the National Fix League, due to extremely critical calls that quite frankly, can be made on every play, i.e., holding. I do think that baseball umpires have less effect on the outcome of the game than to the referees in the League or the Association, because their decisions do not affect the actual physical activities in playing the game, with the exception of the balk, which in any event is a fairly clear-cut rule with limited opportunity for "interpretation." On the other hand, a close call on a third strike at a critical time can have a dramatic effect on a baseball game, but if it's that close on a potential third strike, most players are swinging anyway.
If I was forced to render an opinion, I would think that if anything shady is going on in the League, it has more to do with totals, rather than sides. The referee work in the Association is probably the hardest to perform, but also the worst-performed, in my opinion, and often has an outcome-determinative impact, which leaves much room for accusations of manipulating the outcome.
WildBill
2
Re: Baseball--of the big 3 sports in the US= Most Honest?
You must not bet baseball totals if you think the umps have little to do with the results. There are people whose betting strategy revolves around who is calling balls and strikes. Not that this is the only good angle to use, but you'd be crazy to place a totals bet without considering this factor. Its as important, if not more important, than the weather.
You must not bet baseball totals if you think the umps have little to do with the results. There are people whose betting strategy revolves around who is calling balls and strikes. Not that this is the only good angle to use, but you'd be crazy to place a totals bet without considering this factor. Its as important, if not more important, than the weather.
4625
2
Re: Baseball--of the big 3 sports in the US= Most Honest?
You are correct, I don't bet much on baseball totals. However, I do see how who is working the plate on any given day would affect the total. But I think that ump's strike zones are for the most part consistent for each team playing that day, and also from game to game. Thus, there would not be any "dishonesty" associated with the home plate ump, merely a different--but consistent--strike zone. Thus, who is working the plate becomes another factor, much like the weather, or who is pitching, to be considered when playing totals.
On further reflection, the same analysis might apply to NBA refs. If the refs working a particular game are known to call a higher rate of fouls than other refs, the increase in free throws should be considered when capping the total play.
My question is thus, has the information on umps and refs which we have discussed here ever been collected somewhere?
You are correct, I don't bet much on baseball totals. However, I do see how who is working the plate on any given day would affect the total. But I think that ump's strike zones are for the most part consistent for each team playing that day, and also from game to game. Thus, there would not be any "dishonesty" associated with the home plate ump, merely a different--but consistent--strike zone. Thus, who is working the plate becomes another factor, much like the weather, or who is pitching, to be considered when playing totals.
On further reflection, the same analysis might apply to NBA refs. If the refs working a particular game are known to call a higher rate of fouls than other refs, the increase in free throws should be considered when capping the total play.
My question is thus, has the information on umps and refs which we have discussed here ever been collected somewhere?
WildBill
2
Re: Baseball--of the big 3 sports in the US= Most Honest?
Plenty of places. A few other well-known sites for sports betting data have tons of info on them. You'll notice quite a few umps are a sure thing to be profitable to over or under bettors over the years. The man behind the plate today for the A's-Angels was Ron Kulpa. He has had more unders than overs every year since 1999, except for 2001 where he was 17-17. Put him behind the plate, a cloudy day in Anaheim and two generally under teams in a pitchers park early in the season and it seemed like under 8.5 was stealing. Sure enough an easy 2-1 winner.
Use the ump in that sort of fashion. Don't make a bet because of him, but make bets when he is put in a game which has a lot of reasons to go the direction you want to bet and treat the ump as confirmation of your play.
Plenty of places. A few other well-known sites for sports betting data have tons of info on them. You'll notice quite a few umps are a sure thing to be profitable to over or under bettors over the years. The man behind the plate today for the A's-Angels was Ron Kulpa. He has had more unders than overs every year since 1999, except for 2001 where he was 17-17. Put him behind the plate, a cloudy day in Anaheim and two generally under teams in a pitchers park early in the season and it seemed like under 8.5 was stealing. Sure enough an easy 2-1 winner.
Use the ump in that sort of fashion. Don't make a bet because of him, but make bets when he is put in a game which has a lot of reasons to go the direction you want to bet and treat the ump as confirmation of your play.
datadriven
EOG Member
Re: Baseball--of the big 3 sports in the US= Most Honest?
Where do you get this data?
Where do you get this data?
Rinkrat
2
Re: Baseball--of the big 3 sports in the US= Most Honest?
Tough call, because I want to include the NBA here and make it "big 4 sports", but I understand your reluctance of keeping minor league sports out of this discussion.
Most honest to least:
MLB-tough to run shave
NHL-lot of easy open nets missed, but the personalities of the sport speak for themselves.
NFL-I still remember Barry Sanders running out of bounds for me vs. the Jets to set up only a field goal for the cover. The influences of the crooked Wayne Fontes.
And the winner!
NBA-I have Knicks/Lakers highlights TIVO'ed I can show you all day long. It's not even close.
Tough call, because I want to include the NBA here and make it "big 4 sports", but I understand your reluctance of keeping minor league sports out of this discussion.
Most honest to least:
MLB-tough to run shave
NHL-lot of easy open nets missed, but the personalities of the sport speak for themselves.
NFL-I still remember Barry Sanders running out of bounds for me vs. the Jets to set up only a field goal for the cover. The influences of the crooked Wayne Fontes.
And the winner!
NBA-I have Knicks/Lakers highlights TIVO'ed I can show you all day long. It's not even close.
The General
Another Day, Another Dollar
Re: Baseball--of the big 3 sports in the US= Most Honest?
Good topic and welcome to EOG, Datadriven
Good topic and welcome to EOG, Datadriven
Re: Baseball--of the big 3 sports in the US= Most Honest?
Clearing up my statement: Major League Baseball umpires have the LEAST effect on the winner of a game; as compared to the NFL and the NBA referees.
All rules have exceptions--but to me the Umps are the more professional group.
I don't watch enough hockey to include this sport.
Clearing up my statement: Major League Baseball umpires have the LEAST effect on the winner of a game; as compared to the NFL and the NBA referees.
All rules have exceptions--but to me the Umps are the more professional group.
I don't watch enough hockey to include this sport.