NBA Week 5 thread (35-20, +$1738 on the year)...

[brewers7]

=======================================================================

Early looks at Monday's games:

Philadelphia at Miami: Stephen Hunter is questionable for Philly...An early revenge spot here for the Heat after losing at Philly on 11/5...The Heat have won 5 straight at Home vs. Philly h2h...Have to figure Coach Pat Riley is going to figure out ways to win sooner than later with this Miami squad...Almost looks too easy to take Miami here, which of course scares me, as 79% of the bets are on the Heat and we have no line-move...6 of the last 7 between these 2 teams have gone Over...MIA has gone Over 4 straight overall and PHI has gone Over 2 straight...

Minnesota at Dallas: The Mavs haven't covered this Vegas number against Minny at Home in 8 straight games and 11 of 12...There have been Unders in 5 of the last 7 between thse 2 at Dallas and 6 of 7 overall...Dallas has won 9 straight, covering 8 (and 4 in a row) while Minny has suddenly won and covered 3 straight...My first instinct is to jump on Minny, but Dallas is playing so well right now, and with Josh Howard back for his third same now since coming back from injury, they will only get better...But I have always been a DOG player in the NBA, so my lean will be with the points here...Besides, it isn't easy to win 10 in a row in the NBA or any professional sport...

Orlando at Utah: Why does Vegas keep making these Orlndo totals hight?...The Magic are 7-2-1 to the Under their last 10 (with Denver as one of the Overs, so that doesn't even count, does it?), and the pace of many of these games aren't all that quick...Now granted, Utah is Over 7 of their last 9, but had a 169 last time out at GS, who played a zone against Utah and dared them to make outside shots...The result?...The Jazz shot 32.5%, a season-low for any team in the NBA this season...Now I usually have a kneejerk reaction to taking teams off extremely bad shooting nights like this as it is a bounce-bak spot, but Utah has the Spurs up next, so it may be a bit of a look-ahead game, too...Plus, after the 12-1 start, I see some losses coming here in the short-term for the Jazz...This line has come down 1/2 a point despite 63% action on the Jazz to this point...

San Antonio at Golden State: Manu Ginobili is questionable for the Spurs and Baron Davis and Michael Pietrus are questionable for the Warriors.80% of the early action was on SA, but now that is down to 55% action on the Spurs...SA has won 7 straight h2h, covering 6 of those games...But GS has a new coach this season, and having Don NElson on the sidelines makes all the difference in the world...The Spurs are 7-0 SU & ATS this season on the Road, which is not only impressive, it is difficult to maintain in the NBA...This won't last much longer, and this undefeated stretch may end tonight...To me, it doesn't matter if Davis or Pietrus play or not because GS has a lot of interchangeable parts on this team...However, SA will probably be without Ginobili for the second straight game, and this DOES matter because teams generally rise up their first game with a star player injured...SA is 5-2 to the Over on the Road this season, while GS is a coin-flip at Home, with 5 Unders and 5 Overs...

=======================================================================

 

[brewers7]

Re: NBA Week 5 thread (35-20, +$1738 on the year)...

========================================================================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ========================================================================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
========================================================================
Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
========================================================================
Season To Date: 35-20, +$1738

Sides: 14-8, +$719, Totals: 12-9, +$551, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-1, +$193, ML: 1-1, +$29, Quarters: 3-0, +$250

========================================================================

Monday, November 27

Minnesota Timberwolves +8.5, -- $110 to win $100 (or Minny +8.5 hcp @1.909, 1/10)

Bet this at 5dimes again because the juice on this side was rising like crazy...spot...is finally adjusting these Denver totals...The Mavs haven't covered this Vegas number against Minny at Home in 8 straight games and 11 of 12...They have covered it once in the last 11 games overall vs. Minny...Dallas is scorching hot, winning 9 straight, covering 8...Minny has won and covered 3 straight...Mike James is coming off a zero-point game for the T-Wolves last time out, and although he seems to be struggling adjusting to his new team and new system, I would expect him to bounce-back from that goose-egg and provide some points here and keep this game under the Vegas number...

Good Luck...brewers7
========================================================================

Monday's Picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) Min, 2) Mia, 3) GS, 4) Orl

Totals:

1) Mia ov, 2) Orl un, 3) Min un, 4) GS ov

========================================================================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above[/COLOR]...
========================================================================
Recent Results:
Yesterday: 1-0 (+$50)
Last 3 days: 3-1 (+$145)
Last 7 days: 8-5 (+$272)
========================================================================
Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
========================================================================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management?Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble?Act professional?
========================================================================
<!-- / message -->
<!-- / message -->

 

[Rocketman3]

Re: NBA Week 5 thread (35-20, +$1738 on the year)...

Brewers7, you're the best, I always look at your picks first and give them the most weight. I agree that the Spurs' streak is due to end, but they've won the last 7 su and are 5-2 ats the last 7 against GST. Also, the Spurs are 11-0 ats after visiting the Sonics. With Davis possibly out, I have to lay off the Warriors.

 

[brewers7]

Re: NBA Week 5 thread (35-20, +$1738 on the year)...

Brewers7, you're the best, I always look at your picks first and give them the most weight. I agree that the Spurs' streak is due to end, but they've won the last 7 su and are 5-2 ats the last 7 against GST. Also, the Spurs are 11-0 ats after visiting the Sonics. With Davis possibly out, I have to lay off the Warriors.

Fair enough...I knew the Spurs were struggling bk-2-bk vs. good teams the last 2 years but was too lazy to look it up...

Well, as fate would have it, I did see in another post at another forum where the Spurs are 1-10 SU and ATS on the back-end of bk-2-bks against winning teams the last 11 tries...

I knew it was bad and something close to that, but 1-10...Ouch...

Thanx for the props and Welcome to EOG...I don't recognize your handle, but GL to ya, sir...

 

[Rocketman3]

Re: NBA Week 5 thread (35-20, +$1738 on the year)...

You may be right about the spurs/warriors game, but I layed off. I did go with you on the t-wolves and the magic. Good job.

 

[Egg Yolk Soup]

Re: NBA Week 5 thread (35-20, +$1738 on the year)...

Wow, 4-0 on the night. Nice job. I think i may have to start parlaying your plays.

 

[Rocketman3]

Re: NBA Week 5 thread (35-20, +$1738 on the year)...

Great call. With Davis/Pietrus out, it was gutsy to go with GS. You have better info and more experience than I.

 

[brewers7]

Re: NBA Week 5 thread (35-20, +$1738 on the year)...

Wow, 4-0 on the night. Nice job. I think i may have to start parlaying your plays.

Some nights I get a feel when those sides will be good across the board and I should have mentioned it here because I did across the street...I said over there that in all 4 games tonight, there was only 1 side to play in all 4 and that whenever I feel that way, I usually have a good night...Well, 4-0...

But, Thanx guys...

I looked at my database tonight and found the accurate numbers for San Antonio's woes against good teams on the back-end of bk-2-bks and here they are:


The San Antonio Spurs are now 1-13 SU and 0-14 ATS in their last 14 back-end of back-to-back games against teams that have at least a .500 winning percentage (13 of these NCs came against teams with winning records, one NC came against a .500 team)...

So another words, when the Spurs play a GOOD team on the back-end of a bk-to-bk, they are 0-14 ATS in their last 14 chances...

 

[brewers7]

Re: NBA Week 5 thread (35-20, +$1738 on the year)...

=======================================================================

Early looks at Tuesday's games:

Atlanta at Washington: Speedy Claxton and Lorenzo Wright are probable for Atlanta...How bad is WASH right now?...They have lost 4 straight and 7 of 8...WAS had won 8 straight in this h2h series before ATL broke through on 4/7/06 with a win at ATL...The Wiz have been an Over team at Home this season going Over in 5 of their 6 Home games...Problem is whenever I see an ATL total listed over 200, I cannot help but hve a kneejerk reaction to the Under...The Wiz are pressing and feel tonight is a big game for them, so maybe we have an Under here, but no strong opinion on the total...And like I say, when in doubt, take the points in the NBA as ATL is coming off a very poor performance themselves at ORL on Saturday...

Charlotte at New Jersey: The Nets are coming off a totally unsuccessful Road trip where they went 0-4 SU & 0-3-1 ATS, and that was after a Home thrashing compliments of the Trail Blazers, so the Nets have lost 5 straight...NJ has beaten this expansion franchise 7 out of 8 games, covering 5 times...5 Overs in these 8 h2h meetings, too...This is the longest losing streak for the Nets since November of 2004...I cannot see this veteran team losing to the Bobcats, but again, I am a DOG player, so giving 7 or maybe 7.5 is never a pleasant thought for me...I cannot help but think Under here, but this a bit of a chart-play to the Over as CHAR had 5 straight Unders, and now have 2 straight Overs...

Toronto at New Orleans: No total posted...Morris Peterson questionable for Toronto...Peja Stojakovic and David West are expected to miss for New Orleans...The Away Team has covered 8 of the last 9 in this h2h series, 3 of them being OT games...New Orleans has not come within 17 points of a Vegas total in their last 3 games and were 35 points Under the total at PHOE and 29.5 points Under the Vegas total at Dallas last time out...Again, where are the points coming from tonight for the Hornets?...Toronto is actually showing signs of playing some defense lately as the raptors have gone Under 4 straight and 6 of 7 with the only Over being against Denver (which shouldn't even count)...3 of the last 4 at NO between these 2 have gone Under...Again, I am a DOG player in the NBA, so the points look just fine to me as the Hornets continue to be streaky, starting with a C3, then NC4, then C4 and now a NC3 currently...TOR is 0-7 on the Road, but are 3-4 ATS...

New York at Chicago: Channing Frye is OUT and Quentin Richardson is questionable for NY...Ben Wallace will probably only get fined and not suspended by Chicago Bulls' management for breaking a team dress code for wearing a head band and Wallace has been accused of being insubordinate, too, after the last 2 games and he has had a good talking to by Mr. Paxson, the GM and Coach Scott Skiles...Eddie Curry of the Knicks would love nothing more than to get his first win as a Knick over this Bulls' team since that controversial trade 2 seasons ago, but I wonder if CHI is about to go on a run here now that they have some Home games upcoming and have gotten a few practices in to cure their ills...The Knicks' picture is far from peaches and cream as Stephon Marbury did not take a single shot from the field in his last game (first time in his career he did that) against CHI at MSG...Reporters said he was disinterested the entire game and was still apparently sulking for being benched earlier in the week...Marbury and Coach Isiah Thomas supposedly worked things out behind closed doors so w'll see if Marbury feels ,like playing this time around...This is the back-end of a Home-and-Home series, so I cannot help but immediately look at the team that lost the front-end (that would be the Knicks) to come out and cover this one, and lo and behold, we have 7.5 points (maybe even 8 soon) to use as insurance...These teams have gone Over 4 straight and 5 of 6 h2h and the Bulls did go Over the last 3 games of their Road trip...Bulls have won 7 of the last 8 SU against NY but are a coin-flip at 4-4 ATS...

Minnesota at Houston: Ahhh, yes, the 4-games-in-5-days trend shows up here...To this point of the season, if you blindly bet every game where there was a 4-of-5 team involved, you would be 9-5 ATS...Minny was 1-1 ATS last season in this spot, not covering at SA and covering at PHOE...The Away Team has won 8 of the last 9 in this h2h series, and surprisingly, 7 of the last 9 have gone Over h2h...Now Houston is 2-1 SU BUT 0-3 ATS this season when they have rest and their opponent does not and the Rockets are just 1-5 ATS at Home, not covering 5 straight despite being 5-1 at Home SU...Minny has covered 4 straight Overall...Houston has gone Under 3 straight Overall after many Overs to start the season...I will gobble up these points every time with the 4-of-5 Away Dog and you couldn't pay me to take Houston here...Only 2 T'Wolves starters played more than 33 minutes last night, and with the short travel in-state, I don't see fatigue being a factor...Minny 2-2 ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bks so far this season...HOU has Phoenix on Wednesday so this could be a look-ahead spot...

Memphis at Denver: Memphis has put together 6 straight decent games and have covered 5 straight...Denver has won 5 in a row and Covered 4 straight...Denver had won 6 straight in this h2h series until MEMP broke thru and won on 3/17/06 at MEMP...These teams have gone Over 4 straight and 5 of 6 h2h...3 of the last 4 h2h games have hit at least 213, and this is before the new Denver offense got installed this season...MEMP has had 2 straight Unders and DEN way Under last time out so a strong chart-play to the Under for DEN would seemingly be in play, but this is DENVER we are talking about...The only 2 Nuggets' Unders have been against the Clippers...I have to like the Over here...Again, the DOG looks tempting here...

LA Clippers at Sacramento: No total posted...Sam Cassell is questionable and Chris Kaman is OUT for the Clippers...Ron Artest is questionable Sacramento...The Clippers have lost 5 of their last 6 (only win an OT win vs. a short-handed and b2b Philly team at Home) and the Clips have Not Covered 6 straight now after a C5...Ok, the Kings have won 13 straight and 18 of 19 h2h against the Clips...Yes, you are reading that right...SAC 13-6 ATS in those 19 games h2h vs. LAC...When is the last time the Clips won at ARCO?...How about 11/7/97...SAC has won 16 straight at Home vs the Clips, covering 9 of those 16...This h2h series has seen 5 of the last 6 go Over...With all of this history against the Clips, I still like them to Cover because I like NBA DOGs and don't see this NC streak going on forever and more importantly I expect the Clips to rise up here if Cassell isn't playing...A strong chart-play to the Under, though, as SAC had an Under the last time out after 6 straight Overs...

Indiana at Portland: LaMarcus Aldridge probable but not 100% healthy and Joel Przybilla questionable for Portland...Indy is 5-0 SU & ATS in their last 5 h2h meetings with Portland...Indy on the 2nd game of a long Road trip...I'll be honest, absolutely nothing is jumping out at me for this game, so this is a flat-out no-play and I'll see if I can a slight angle to make a pick, but this game just doesn't interest me...

Milwaukee at LA Lakers: Brian Cook is questionable for the Lakers...The lake-show has won 10 straight and 19 of 21 h2h in this series, going 14-6-1 ATS during that span...The Bucks are starting a long Road Trip in a bad way, losing 5 straight SU & ATS...The Lakers could be glancing ahead to a revenge-game with Utah on Thursday...Lakers starting to go Over again, as they started the season with 4 straight Overs, then 6 straight Unders, then 2 Overs and a Push...MILW is banged up and struggling, going Under 4 of 6 and this h2h series has seen 4 of the last 5 stay Under overall and at Staples...

=======================================================================

 

[Forecast 28]

Re: NBA Week 5 thread (35-20, +$1738 on the year)...

Brewers: Super job last night as you just missed a perfect eight-for-eight
on the preferred sides and totals...If Philly had hung a little bit closer
you would have seen more late fouling and likely gotten the over...Nice
pick on Minny, although it was Randy Foye, and not Mike James, who
made it happen by scoring 11 in the fourth quarter...I believe Foye also
had 14 in the final period on Saturday when they upset the LA Clippers,
who were off two losses and had extra motivation...I saw the second
half of each of these games, and he shows a strong court presence
and a desire to take the big shots...It wouldn't surprise me if he
becomes Rookie of the Year and a possible long term standout...Minny may well be a real solid pick again tonight...Houston may be 9-4, but they have failed to cover as a home favorite in five tries so far... An ice-cold Washington team played them to a close loss in another back-to-back vs rest game last week following a loss in Dallas one night earlier.

I have been taking a look at those plus-minus ratings from that website...
They show high ratings on Charlie Villanueva and Josh Childress, whose
absences have been followed by a team result dropoff, but low ratings on Chris Kaman and Cliff Robinson, whose absences have also been followed
by a team result dropoff...I note that you are considering Atlanta tonight...
It would help if Childress (13 pts 7 rebs, 57 FG pct, 36 min) comes back, and
he is listed questionable...Atlanta is 1-3 straight up and 2-2 cover without Childress, but the covers outdid the number by just one point and the two non covers finished by a combined 20 points below the number...Speedy Claxton must not be 100 per cent...Note that he has sat out the last two back-to-back games, both of which they lost and failed to
cover...Replacement starter Cedric Bozeman had a very tough night on Saturday in Orlando, scoring zero points while three Magic point guards, Jameer Nelson, Carlos Arroyo and Keyon Dooling, combined for 39 points...I also watched some of Orlando last night, and did not realize
how much they have...Aside from Dwight Howard very possibly being a top
10 in the league player already, they are playing very tough defense,
and may have as good a bench as anyone, which can be very helpful
for regular season wins.

 

[brewers7]

Re: NBA Week 5 thread (35-20, +$1738 on the year)...

Thanx, Forecast...

And yes, Villanova's Randy Foye has been superb the last 2 games as Mike James cannot even find his way off the bench in the 4Q due to Foye...

I saw the last 6 minutes of the Mavs game last night and Foye brought them back...I wonder how Minny likes their decision now to pay James all of that free-agent money now during the offseason??...I wonder if James will be on the trading block, but with that big salary now, as with all of the big NBA salaries, it is hard to make trades in the NBA...

Foye is the early front-runner for Rookie of the Year and like Chris Paul of New Orleans, would seem to have a bright future in this league...

ATL is a stay-away game w/o Childress and the Wiz are going to break out and blow somebody out any day now...I do like 1 Side and 1 Total and will have a bet soon as I watch the line move and hope to get an extra half a point w/o buying it...

GL to ya today, sir...

 

[brewers7]

Re: NBA Week 5 thread (35-20, +$1738 on the year)...

========================================================================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ========================================================================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
========================================================================
Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
========================================================================
Season To Date: 36-20, +$1838

Sides: 16-8, +$819, Totals: 12-9, +$551, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-1, +$193, ML: 1-1, +$29, Quarters: 3-0, +$250

========================================================================

Tuesday, November 28

Minnesota Timberwolves +9, -- $162 to win $150 --- (or Minny +9 hcp @1.926, 1.5/10, Pinnacle)

This is 9 at several shops out there...Here we go again with the 4-games-in-5-days trend which carries a John Q. Public Myth or Urban Legend where many people think the Away Team is "tired" and there is no way they can cover in this spot against a rested team...Yet I have tracked this trend for over 10 years and basically, taking the Away Team is a money-maker long-term...Why?...1) Because Vegas knows what the squares think and adjusts the lines and 2) in most cases the 4-of-5 team vs. rested team isn't even a major factor in a lot of these games...Sure, this situational spot has its bad stretches...In fact, last November, this trend did horribly for the Away Team, absolutely horribly, but after every bad stretch comes a good stretch and the Away Teams went 13-3 ATS from roughly mid-DEC through January in this spot last year after the initial bad ATS start...

This season, teams on the Road playing their 4th game in 5 days against a rested Home Team are 8-3 ATS, and all 3 ATS losses were by 3 points or less, with several straight-up victories...Professional athletes don't tire too easily...Plus, Minny had short travel here in-state...Only 2 starters played more than 33 minutes last night, and the emergence of Villlanova rookie Randy Foye has meant that the big free-agent signee in the offseason, Mike James, has not even gotten off the bench in the 4Q during crunch time the last 2 games...So James certainly isn't "tired", playing 22 minutes last night and neither is Foye, who played 26 minutes, the 2 Point-guards on this team...Now we look at the h2h matchup between these 2 teams and we see that the Away Team has won 8 of the last 9 in this h2h series...Minny has won outright their last 4 trips into Houston, including a back-ender last season at HOU when HOU had rest...HOU is 5-1 SU at Home but 1-5 ATS at Home, Not Covering 5 straight so far this season...Everything points in one direction in this game, and that is to the Timberwolves...

Good Luck...brewers7
========================================================================

Tuesday's Picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) Min, 2) NY, 3) Char, 4) Memp, 5) Milw, 6) Memp, 7) Tor, 8) Atl, 9) Ind

Totals:

1) Memp ov, 2) Char un, 3) Tor un, 4) Atl un, 5) NY ov, 6) LAC un, 7) Milw ov, 8) Min un, 9) Ind un

========================================================================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above[/COLOR]...
========================================================================
Recent Results:
Yesterday: 1-0 (+$100)
Last 3 days: 3-0 (+$300)
Last 7 days: 8-5 (+$272)
========================================================================
Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
========================================================================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management?Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble?Act professional?
========================================================================
<!-- / message -->
<!-- / message -->
<!-- / message -->

 

[brewers7]

Re: NBA Week 5 thread (35-20, +$1738 on the year)...

had a typo on the #4 side...

================================================== ======================

Tuesday's Picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) Min, 2) NY, 3) Char, 4) LAC, 5) Milw, 6) Memp, 7) Tor, 8) Atl, 9) Ind

Totals:

1) Memp ov, 2) Char un, 3) Tor un, 4) Atl un, 5) NY ov, 6) LAC un, 7) Milw ov, 8) Min un, 9) Ind un

================================================== ======================

 

[Egg Yolk Soup]

Re: NBA Week 5 thread (35-20, +$1738 on the year)...

Hey Brewers if you were to pick a two team parlay what would you pick? How about a 3 teamer? I was thinking for the two Minny +8.5, and Memphis over.

 

[Egg Yolk Soup]

Re: NBA Week 5 thread (35-20, +$1738 on the year)...

One more question, if you cap College bball what do you think about Youngstown st, and the Maryland under. They seem to be popular plays

 

[Matt]

Re: NBA Week 5 thread (35-20, +$1738 on the year)...

Riding with you for the second night in a row with the T-Wolves.

Hopefully this one will not be as much of a sweater.

 

[jimbiggs]

Re: NBA Week 5 thread (35-20, +$1738 on the year)...

Hello Brewers7,

I'm completely new to sports betting and I've been following your threads closely. I really appreciate your detailed write-ups. Not trying to be a nit-picker here, but I noticed that on 11/27 your sides record was 14-8 +$719. Then on 11/28 you posted it as 16-8 +$819. Shouldn't that be 15-8?
Keep up the great work.

Season To Date: 35-20, +$1738

Sides: 14-8, +$719, Totals: 12-9, +$551, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-1, +$193, ML: 1-1, +$29, Quarters: 3-0, +$250


========================================================================
Season To Date: 36-20, +$1838

Sides: 16-8, +$819, Totals: 12-9, +$551, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-1, +$193, ML: 1-1, +$29, Quarters: 3-0, +$250

========================================================================

 

[Rocketman3]

Re: NBA Week 5 thread (35-20, +$1738 on the year)...

IMO, Brewers7 should get credit for two sides, the twolves and the warriors, the latter pick Brewers7 defended in response to my expressions of doubt.

 

[brewers7]

Re: NBA Week 5 thread (35-20, +$1738 on the year)...

Hello Brewers7,

I'm completely new to sports betting and I've been following your threads closely. I really appreciate your detailed write-ups. Not trying to be a nit-picker here, but I noticed that on 11/27 your sides record was 14-8 +$719. Then on 11/28 you posted it as 16-8 +$819. Shouldn't that be 15-8?
Keep up the great work.

Season To Date: 35-20, +$1738

Sides: 14-8, +$719, Totals: 12-9, +$551, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-1, +$193, ML: 1-1, +$29, Quarters: 3-0, +$250


========================================================================
Season To Date: 36-20, +$1838

Sides: 16-8, +$819, Totals: 12-9, +$551, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-1, +$193, ML: 1-1, +$29, Quarters: 3-0, +$250

========================================================================

It was wrong 2 days ago...I simply compensated for forgetting to update it 3 days ago...

If you add them all up, it comes to 36-20...If you add them all up from yesterday, you do NOT get 35-20...

Surprised you didn't notice that fact yesterday since you were looking so "closely", but yes, please feel free to let me know when I forget to update something, because mistakes happen in updating...I do keep an Excel spreadsheet which is updated daily, but sometimes I forget to update these daily posts correctly...I have absoltely zero reason to cheat as I get over 20,000 views a week on the other forums I post at, so if I was dumb enough to deliberately cheat (which I would never do) then certainly I'd get called out for it...

Just a simple updating omission which I corrected today...

GL to ya sir...

 

[brewers7]

Re: NBA Week 5 thread (35-20, +$1738 on the year)...

Hey Brewers if you were to pick a two team parlay what would you pick? How about a 3 teamer? I was thinking for the two Minny +8.5, and Memphis over.

One more question, if you cap College bball what do you think about Youngstown st, and the Maryland under. They seem to be popular plays.

Didn't see these until now...Really too late to give an opinion now...

I don't cap NCAA's but have a good friend who does and has been money in NCAA's, going 9-0 last night with his Hoops bets and he had a 29-2 Saturday with his college football bets 5 or 6 weekends ago...I have never seen anyone who knows more about the NCAA than him...He does post occasionally but it's very difficult for me to get him to post daily because he is busy, hates to type, blah-blah-blah, but I am working on him...

GL...

 

[brewers7]

Re: NBA Week 5 thread (35-20, +$1738 on the year)...

Update on the 4-games-in-5-days NBA trend:

If you blindly take the Away Team in any game where either opponent is playing a 4-of-5, you are 10-5 ATS this season...

This trend has it's hot and cold spells...Last year, the trend was horrific in November, starting out maybe 1-8 or 2-11 (going from memory), but still finished the 2005-06 season with a 44-34-3 ATS record, despite the horrible start...I remember mentioning to my (now defunct) forum members in December that the trend would be a good one to ride the rest of the season when it was about 2-11 or something close to that and I would say the roughly 42-23 ATS finish was pretty good...

But as I have said in posting forums for the last 4 NBA seasons, the 4-of-5 trend can be broken down even further...

The 4-of-5 trend is at its STRONGEST when the Home Team is playing their 4th-game-in-5 days and arguably even stronger if BOTH teams are playing their 4th game in 5 days...

Last year:

#1 Take the Away Team when the Home Team is playing 4-of-5: 18-7 ATS
#2 Take the Away Team when both teams are playing 4-of-5: 3-0 ATS

That is 21-7 ATS for 75%

Also last year:

#3 Take the Away Team when only the Away Team is playing 4-of-5: 23-27 ATS

It was an off year for this one, the weakest of the 3, as it never did quite recover from the really bad ATS start...It is usually above 50% and some years at or around 60%...

This year:

#1 is 0-1 ATS (and it was Dallas blowing out Washington)
#2 is 1-1 ATS (but this super-strong trend ran into 2 tough spots)
#3 is 8-3 ATS (starting this year strong to try and get back near its norm after a bad year last season, with all 3 losses being by less than 3 points)


Any questions or comments are welcome...

<!-- / message -->

 

[brewers7]

Re: NBA Week 5 thread (35-20, +$1738 on the year)...

=======================================================================

Early looks at Wednesday's games:

New York at Cleveland: Quentin Richardson is questionable for NY...Larry Hughes is expected to miss for Cleveland...The Cavs have 3 days rest for the first time this season and are 2-2 ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not...NY 1-3 ATS on the back-end of bk-2-bks...Stephon Marbury still having problems for the Knicks as he hit his first 2 shots and then missed his final 11 shots and disappeared in the 4Q...He also had 5 turnovers and said after the game that he is not performing well lately because he "is not touching the ball as much as he is used to"...But maybe what Stephon hasn't realized is that maybe HE is the problem...After NJ traded Marbury to PHOE, the Nets, who were 26-56 with Marbury on board as their starting PG in 2000-01, went to 52-30 the very next season without Marbury...Then PHOE traded Marbury to NY in the middle of the 2003-04 season and with Marbury there for the first 34 games, the Suns finished 29-53 that year and then jumped to 62-20 the next season without Marbury when Steve Nash took over...Yet Marbury is the self-proclaimed best PG in the league?...The Knicks are going to struggle if Marbury doesn't have his head in the game...The Knicks have covered 4 of the last 5 vs. CLE and 5 straight games and 9 of the last 10 in this h2h series have gone Under...

Charlotte at Atlanta: I am more or less dumbfounded about why the early line-movement on this total seems to be on the Over...Sure, the last 2 games between these two teams were 226 and 242, but these games were last year on 3/28 and 4/14, LATE in the season when both teams were long, long since removed from the playoff race and these games pretty much didn't mean anything...But these 2 team are completely different this season and are both in the top 4 in defense this season as Charlotte is 2nd and Atlanta is 4th in FG% allowed...ATL 3 straight and 5 of the last 6 games Under...CHAR 3 straight Overs after 5 straight Unders, so they are still a chart-play to the Over...ATL 5-1 to the Under at Home this season...ATL 0-2 SU & ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bks this season and in both instances, their opponent was also on a back-ender...CHAR 2-1 SU & ATS in this same exact spot...

New Jersey at Boston: All 5 NJ starters played about 36 minutes or more, with 4 of them playing about 40 minutes each...Why?...Because they have no bench as their bench chipped in a whopping 7 points last night...NJ has now lost 6 straight (no covers, but a push in those 6) and are 0-2 SU & ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bks this season...This is Boston's first game where they have rest and are playing an opponent on a back-ender...BOS has 3 days rest and are 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS with both of those games against CHAR...NJ has won 5 of the last 6 against BOS, covering 4...6 of the last 7 h2h games have gone Under...How good is NJ this year?...I cannot see them losing 7 straight, but I have seen a lot stranger things in the NBA over the years...

Toronto at Dallas: Morris Peterson is doubtful for Toronto...Devean George is questionable for Dallas...The Mavs have won 10 straight after losing their first 4 games of the season...Dallas is 11-2 SU and 8-5 ATS their last 13 against Toronto and have gone Over 10 of the last 14 against the Raptors...Dallas has won 6 straight and 7 of 8 h2h at Home vs. TOR and are 5-3 ATS in those 8 Home games with 6 of the last 7 going Over...This is the first game this season for Dallas where they have rest and their opponent does not and 3 of the last 4 Home games vs. the Raptors have fit this situational spot where Dallas won all 3 (by 8, 11 & 17 points) and covered 2...DAL was 6-5 ATS when they had rest and their opponent did not last season, but 6-2 ATS at Home...TOR is 1-0 ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bks this season...TOR has now Covered 6 of 7 after a NC5...TOR has also gone Under 7 of their last 8 now and 5 straight...Dallas has gone Under 6 straight Overall...

San Antonio at Utah: No total posted...Manu Ginobili is questionable for SA...Spurs are 3-0 SU & ATS after losses this season...The Jazz have now lost 2 straight after starting the season 12-1...The Spurs have won 3 straight and 22 of 24 against the Jazz in this series, going 17-7 ATS against Utah...They have gone Over 6 of the last 8 h2h...The Spurs have always been a good-bounce-back teams off a loss in recent years...The Spurs won by 9 in both games at Utah last season...

Houston at Phoenix: Tracy McGrady and Bonzi Wells are questionable and Juwan Howard is probable for Houston...Leandro Barbosa is questionable for Phoenix...Early action all over PHOE as the line has moved 2 points and about 80% of the bets are on PHOE...PHOE is 2-0 ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not so far this season and they were 13-7 ATS in this situational spot last year and started last season 8-1 ATS in this spot...PHOE won all 3 games vs. HOU last season by an aggregate total of 63 points and have are 8-2 SU & ATS against Houston the last 10...McGrady seemed to hint as though he may not play today, which is why the line is skyrocketing...7 of the last 10 in this h2h series have gone Over, but 3 of the last 5 have gone Under...4 of the last 5 h2h at PHOE have gone Over...

Orlando at Seattle: The Magic are now Kings of the East and are first in defense in terms of FG% allowed...Seattle Coach Bob Hill allegedly stirring it up with his bench players in the Seattle newspapers so we'll see how that plays out...ORL won against the Sonics at Home on 11/8 on a buzzer-beater, 88-87...SEA has won 7 of the last 8 against ORL at Home...ORL in an obvious let-down spot, but this team is rock-solid and SEA is struggling mightily, losing 4 of their last 5 Home games...A revenge spot for the Sonics, but are they good enough to exact it?...And again I must ask why ORK totals are as high as they are?...ORL 8-2-1 to the Under their last 11 and SEA Under 4 of their last 5 and remember, these teams played a 175 3 weeks ago...

Indiana at Golden State: No total posted...Jermaine O'Neal is probable but not 100% healthy for Indiana...Baron Davis is questionable and Michael Pietrus is probable for Golden State...Indy is 8-2 SU & ATS in the last 10 in this series...Indy 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bks this season...GS 4-2 SU & ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not this season...GS also 4-2 to the Over in this situational spot and 4-1 to the Over their last 5 overall...GS Coach Don Nelson is going for his 1200th win tonight, but that is just some informational fluff for those interested...Indy Over in 3 of their 5 back-enders this season...

Memphis at LA Clippers: No line posted...Damon Stoudamire and Jake Tsakalidis are questionable for Memphis...Sam Cassell is questionable for the Clippers...MEMP has won 11 of the last 13 in this h2h series and are 9-4 ATS in those games...Even as good as the Clips were last season, MEMP beat them their last 3 meetings by an aggregate total of 32 points...Talk about your conflicting numbers: MEMP has Covered 6 straight, while the Clips have Not Covered 7 straight...And ahhh, yes, we have another 4-games-in-5-nights trend here as the Clippers have a 4-of-5 at Home here, the second instance of this situational spot where the Home team has a 4-of-5 and the Away Team does not...Problem is that MEMP is in a BIG let-down spot and the Clips are in an EXTREME bounce-back spot here as they shot just 30.6% from the field last night in what was the lowest FG% by any team this season in the NBA and obviously lost...Blindly taking the Away Team here is what the 4-of-5 trend says...

But let's look at even a more interesting angle...In the last 15+ years (over 18,000 games, including playoffs even), there has only been ONE instance where a C6 team played a NC7 team and that happened on 4/5/02, and it was Toronto (C6) playing on the Road at Chicago (NC7)...Toronto had a 36-38 record going into the game and Chicago was 17-57 and Toronto was a 4.5 Road FAV and they won by 2, so the NC7 team (Chicago) Covered at Home...There were 2 other games in the last 15+ seasons where a C6 played a NC8 and a NC9 and the C6 team did Not Cover those 2 games either...Not a lot of teams reach a C8 or NC8 and if they do, the streak usually ends at 8 (look at GS last week)...So when this info is considered, the 4-of-5 trend is in another tough spot here to try and get a Cover for the Away Team...

=======================================================================

 

[Forecast 28]

Re: NBA Week 5 thread (35-20, +$1738 on the year)...

Brewers: I see you had another 7-2 on the sides last night....Chicago found
a team with far more serious internal problems than they have in New York...
I recommend an article on Yahoo.com's NBA page on the
trials and tribulations of Stephon Marbury and Isiah Thomas, by
Adrian Wojnarowski.

I think you have a good understanding of the reason for the four-games-in-five-nights success of away teams...The number seems to get moved strongly against the road team, like Minnesota last night, due to the incorrect public perception in many instances.

Here's a current year trend which likely won't hold to this extent, but is
still worth noting...Away underdogs right now are 92-69 vs the number, and
away underdogs of two points or more are 90-64, for over 58 percent
success...It's not a large sample size, but I think it means you have to
be very careful with home favorites right now...I lost with three of them
in the last two nights, so I should know about that.

New Jersey is now vying with Chicago as the hardest ream to rate at present, and they are probably today's biggest challenge to an
analyst...Tonight they are + 3 vs a Boston team whom they were
16 games better than last season, and which likely has not improved.
NJ is now 1-6 without Cliff Robinson, and their biggest problem has
been defense in the paint area...But Boston is likely not as well equipped as Charlotte to give them trouble down low, so if the
fatigue and the bad bench don't get in the way, the Nets could be
a good value.

Other road underdogs which look like possibilities tonight are Charlotte,
Toronto, and Orlando...Josh Childress is expected to miss for Atlanta,
and nothing has come easy for them without him, while Charlotte has already upset Cleveland and San Antonio in back-to-back games...Toronto is playing
very well for a double digit underdog, and Dallas seemed very content to
win close vs Minnesota, settling for deep jumpers throughout the
second half...Orlando may or may not have a letdown, while Seattle
has lost five of seven at home, including two vs Philadelphia and
Portland...And their only home win over a team with a winning record came
in the first week vs the LA Lakers, who did not cover the number in Kobe
Bryant's first five games, when he was working himself into shape.

 

[brewers7]

Re: NBA Week 5 thread (35-20, +$1738 on the year)...

Brewers: I see you had another 7-2 on the sides last night....Chicago found
a team with far more serious internal problems than they have in New York...
I recommend an article on Yahoo.com's NBA page on the
trials and tribulations of Stephon Marbury and Isiah Thomas, by
Adrian Wojnarowski.

I think you have a good understanding of the reason for the four-games-in-five-nights success of away teams...The number seems to get moved strongly against the road team, like Minnesota last night, due to the incorrect public perception in many instances.

Here's a current year trend which likely won't hold to this extent, but is
still worth noting...Away underdogs right now are 92-69 vs the number, and
away underdogs of two points or more are 90-64, for over 58 percent
success...It's not a large sample size, but I think it means you have to
be very careful with home favorites right now...I lost with three of them
in the last two nights, so I should know about that.

New Jersey is now vying with Chicago as the hardest ream to rate at present, and they are probably today's biggest challenge to an
analyst...Tonight they are + 3 vs a Boston team whom they were
16 games better than last season, and which likely has not improved.
NJ is now 1-6 without Cliff Robinson, and their biggest problem has
been defense in the paint area...But Boston is likely not as well equipped as Charlotte to give them trouble down low, so if the
fatigue and the bad bench don't get in the way, the Nets could be
a good value.

Other road underdogs which look like possibilities tonight are Charlotte,
Toronto, and Orlando...Josh Childress is expected to miss for Atlanta,
and nothing has come easy for them without him, while Charlotte has already upset Cleveland and San Antonio in back-to-back games...Toronto is playing
very well for a double digit underdog, and Dallas seemed very content to
win close vs Minnesota, settling for deep jumpers throughout the
second half...Orlando may or may not have a letdown, while Seattle
has lost five of seven at home, including two vs Philadelphia and
Portland...And their only home win over a team with a winning record came
in the first week vs the LA Lakers, who did not cover the number in Kobe
Bryant's first five games, when he was working himself into shape.

Good stuff as always Forecast...

I use this link to get to the online Newspapers for the NBA:

RotoTimes.com - Newspapers for NBA Teams

I read the 2 articles from NY Newsday on Marbury...If you have a link to the Yahoo article, I will read it...

I don't have exact numbers, but from memory from doing the NBA for so long, the DOGs pretty much always bark loudly in November...NOV has always been a DOG month in the NBA while ALL the teams have hope for a strong season...So those numbers you posted there for the year come as no surprise at all to me...

I think the Bulls are going to go om a run now that they have some Home games coming up and will have to practice and work ou the kinks on defense...

GL to ya...

 

[brewers7]

Re: NBA Week 5 thread (35-20, +$1738 on the year)...

========================================================================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ========================================================================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
========================================================================
Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
========================================================================
Season To Date: 37-20, +$1988

Sides: 17-8, +$969, Totals: 12-9, +$551, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-1, +$193, ML: 1-1, +$29, Quarters: 3-0, +$250

========================================================================

Wednesday, November 29

San Antonio/Utah under 191.5 -- $161 to win $150 --- (or SA/Utah under 191.5 @1.935, 1.5/10, Pinnacle)

This is a big game for both teams...Should be a playoff-type game...This generally translates into Defense...These 2 teams played a 149 and 181 at Utah last year h2h...These were the only 2 Unders in their last 8 h2h overall, but the Vegas totals were lower, too, and for this game, it seems to me that the present is more important...The Jazz were shut down by GS and ORL with zone defenses (especially at GS) so why would SA not employ a zone here tonight, also?...This should turn into a half-court game at some point, so I have to take a shot at this Under...Also a bit of a chart-play to the Under for Utah as they were Over 7 of 8 and are now Under, and WAY Under 2 in a row...The Vegas total is high because both teams have played a lot of Overs to this point of the season, so the total has been over-adjusted in my opinion...

Good Luck...brewers7
========================================================================

Wednesday's Picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) NJ, 2) Atl, 3) SA, 4) Sea, 5) LAC, 6) Tor, 7) NY, 8) Hou, 9) Ind

Totals:

1) SA un, 2) Atl un, 3) Sea un, 4) Hou un, 5) NY un, 6) Ind ov, 7) Tor ov, 8) LAC un, 9) NJ un

========================================================================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above[/COLOR]...
========================================================================
Recent Results:
Yesterday: 1-0 (+$150)
Last 3 days: 3-0 (+$300)
Last 7 days: 8-5 (+$272)
========================================================================
Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
========================================================================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management?Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble?Act professional?
========================================================================
<!-- / message -->
<!-- / message -->

 

[Forecast 28]

Re: NBA Week 5 thread (35-20, +$1738 on the year)...

The link for the Yahoo story is:

Paying a steep price - NBA - Yahoo! Sports

 

[jimbiggs]

Re: NBA Week 5 thread (35-20, +$1738 on the year)...

Damn, I didn't get home in time for the tip off. Looks like an easy win. Would you recommend the second half under?

 

[Omnipotent Frog]

Re: NBA Week 5 thread (35-20, +$1738 on the year)...

Hey Brewers, just thought I would stop by and thank you for your early look write ups. Very much like a cliff notes for trends. I always make it a point to stop by and read those. Then off to my next stop along the information highway. I do use trends as part of my capping so any and all help is welcomed. Thank You.

By the way, Magic played man D. against Utah. I watched that one start to finish. The first opponent to actually manhandle Utah at home. Howard was an unstoppable beast.

OF...:+waving-5

 

[brewers7]

Re: NBA Week 5 thread (35-20, +$1738 on the year)...

Hey Brewers, just thought I would stop by and thank you for your early look write ups. Very much like a cliff notes for trends. I always make it a point to stop by and read those. Then off to my next stop along the information highway. I do use trends as part of my capping so any and all help is welcomed. Thank You.

By the way, Magic played man D. against Utah. I watched that one start to finish. The first opponent to actually manhandle Utah at home. Howard was an unstoppable beast.

OF...:+waving-5

Thanx for that info as I didn't watch that game...ORL is rock-solid as I watched them against SEA...

Appreciate the props and I wish you continued success all season long Froggie, I always liked you across the street and I like you even more here at EOG (and I like the new name better, too)...

BOL to ya, sir...

Got a late start today, but here are my "previews"...


=======================================================================

Early looks at Thursday's games:

Detroit at Miami: James Posey is probable for Miami...This is obviously a revenge spot for the Heat knocking the Pistons out of the playoffs last season...Detroit has won 13 of the last 16 h2h vs. Miami in the regular season and 10-6 ATS in those games...The Pistons have won 6 of the last 8 regular season games at Miami...The last 8 in this h2h series have gone Under, but 6 of those were from the playoffs last season...Still, in the regular season, 5 of the alst 7 have gone Under between these two teams...DET seems to be downplaying this game in the newspapers while MIA is saying this is a statement game for them, so I am wondering if MIA is more motivated for this one...DET has won 6 in a row and has 3 days rest for this game, but MIA has won 2 straight since Dwayne Wade has become the point guard 3 games ago, and MIA has scored 100+ points in all 3 of those games...And with this being a TNT game, I cannot help but look at the Over here...

Utah at LA Lakers: Brian Cook is questiobale for the Lakers...Quick revenge spot here for the Lakers, who lost at Utah last week and blew a decent 4Q lead...Utah is 7-4 SU & 9-1-1 ATS vs. LAL the last 11 games h2h...7 out of those 11 games went Over...The Lakers were 8-1 SU at Home before losing to MILW 2 days ago, as they settled for perimeter shots, taking a team record 37 threes...I would imagine Coach Phil Jackson had something to say about that at practice yesterday...MILW used a zone defense against the Lake-Show, and LAL seemed to have problems attacking it, as they settled for treys all night...Utah is 3-1 SU & 2-2 ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bks this season but in all 4 cases, their opponent was on a back-ender, too, while the Lakers are 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS when they have rest and their opponents do not this season...Big let-down spot for Utah off the win last night vs. San Antonio...

=======================================================================

 

[brewers7]

Re: NBA Week 5 thread (35-20, +$1738 on the year)...

========================================================================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ========================================================================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
========================================================================
Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
========================================================================
Season To Date: 38-20, +$2138

Sides: 17-8, +$969, Totals: 13-9, +$701, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-1, +$193, ML: 1-1, +$29, Quarters: 3-0, +$250

========================================================================

Thursday, November 30

Los Angeles Lakers -4 -- $156 to win $150 --- (or LA Lakers -4 hcp @1.962, 1.5/10, Pinnacle)

Quick revenge spot here for the Lakers, who lost at Utah last week and blew a decent 4Q lead...The Lakers were 8-1 SU at Home before losing to MILW 2 days ago, as they settled for perimeter shots, taking a team record 37 threes...I would imagine Coach Phil Jackson had something to say about that at practice yesterday...MILW used a zone defense against the Lake-Show, and LAL seemed to have problems attacking it, as they settled for treys all night...Utah is 3-1 SU & 2-2 ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bks this season but in all 4 cases, their opponent was on a back-ender, too, while the Lakers are 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS when they have rest and their opponents do not this season...Big let-down spot for Utah off the win last night vs. San Antonio...Lakers in bounce-back mode after the loss to Milwaukee, plus the quick-revenge spot vs. Utah here makes them a play...Utah already won a fairlt big game vs. LAL in come-from-behind fashion, and afetr a big win last night, what is the motivation for the Jazz?...In Real Estate, the 3 most important things are Location, Location & Location...In NBA Handicapping, the 3 most important factors is determining which team has more Motivation, Motivation & Motivation...I feel the Lakers have the motivational edge here tonight...

Good Luck...brewers7
========================================================================

Thursday's Picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) LAL, 2) Det

Totals:

1) Det ov, 2) LAL un
========================================================================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above[/COLOR]...
========================================================================
Recent Results:
Yesterday: 1-0 (+$150)
Last 3 days: 3-0 (+$400)
Last 7 days: 7-3 (+$436)
========================================================================
Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
========================================================================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management?Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble?Act professional?
========================================================================
<!-- / message -->

 

[Beantown]

Re: NBA Week 5 thread (35-20, +$1738 on the year)...

gl man, i like your picks tonight

 

[Rocketman3]

Re: NBA Week 5 thread (35-20, +$1738 on the year)...

Brewers7 Quote: "In Real Estate, the 3 most important things are Location, Location & Location...In NBA Handicapping, the 3 most important factors is determining which team has more Motivation, Motivation & Motivation..."

Brilliant! :smokesmal

 

[brewers7]

Re: NBA Week 5 thread (35-20, +$1738 on the year)...

=======================================================================

Early looks at Friday's games:

Charlotte at Washington: Gerald Wallace, Ray Felton & Jake Voskuhl are questionable for CHAR...I really would have trouble going near this one because Wallace and Felton are fairly important to CHAR...The Bobcats have covered 5 of 6 inthis h2h series and have never won in 4 trips to WAS, but have covered the last 3...CHAR slipping to 3rd in the league in FG% allowed and have gone Over 4 straight now and these 2 teams have gone Over 201 against each other 3 straight meetings...

Boston at Toronto: Morris Peterson is questionable for Toronto...On the surface, Boston would seem to be dominating this h2h series, as they have won 9 of 11, but are just 4-6-1 ATS...The Under is surprisingly 7-3 in the last 10 h2h, but 2 of the last 3 have gone Over...TOR a different team at Home, 4-2 SU & 3-3 ATS...But BOS is surprisingly 3-1-1 ATS on the Road...Definite chart-play to the Over here for TOR, because they had an extreme Over last time out after 5 straight Unders and 7 of 8 Under...TOR 4-2 to the Over at Home and BOS 3-2 to the Over on the Road...

Cleveland at Atlanta: Larry Hughes is expected to miss for CLE...Lorenzen Wright is questionable for Atlanta...ATL 2nd in the league and CLE 10th in FG% allowed on defense to this point...CLE had won 9 of 10 SU in this series until ATL pulled off the upset win 104-95 in OT at Cleveland on 11/7...CLE had covered 8 of 10 before that loss, too...ATL is 4-3 at Home and are basically a bucket away in all 3 losses from being 7-0, as they lost to SEA by a point in OT, amd they lost to MIA in OT and they blew a double-digit lead against MILW in the 4Q to lose by 2 points...But this is a quick-revenge spot for CLE and they are coming off an embarrassing loss at Home...ATL 5-2 to the Under at Home this year and CLE 4-1-1 to the Under on the Road...CLE has won and covered 4 straight in ATL...

Chicago at New Orleans: Ben Wallace is probable for CHI...Peja Stojakovic and Bobby Jackson are doubtful and David West is expected to miss for New Orleans...Now that the circus has left CHI, the Bulls have had some practice and preparation time to cure their ills...I stated before their last game at Home vs. NY that I thought the Bulls were on the verge of making a run now that they have some home games coming up against Eastern Conference opponents after this trip to NO...The Hornets are in free-fall without West and Peja and now they won't have Jackson...If these 3 guys don't play, I can state right now that the Bulls and the Under are the play, but I am hearing conflicting info on Peja...The streaky ATS Hornets had a C3, NC4, C4 and now are on a NC4...The Bulls may be hitting their stride as it appears this "headband controversy" with Ben Wallace might be a spark for them...Bulls are 26th in FG% allowed and that will only improve IMO...

New York at Detroit: NY has covered 4 of 5 h2h and the Over is 4 of 5 h2h in this series...DET has won 8 staright vs. NY at Home (4-3-1 ATS)...NY 0-1 SU & ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not this season, while DET is 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bks...DET has won 7 straight overall now after the win at Miami on THUR...Detroit still an Over team at Home and an Under team on the Road since Coach Flip Saunders took over for Larry Brown last season...

Denver at Minnesota: Joe Smith is questionable and Nene Hilario is doubtful for Denver...Minny had won 12 of 14 and 14 of 17 h2h vs. DEN, but the Nuggets have won 4 of the alst 5 vs. the T'Wolves, thanks in part to Coach George Karl coming to town...The last 6 in this h2h series have gone Over...Revenge spot here as Minny beat the Nuggets at DEN on 11/3...Minny has covered 5 straight overall, and DEN just had a 5-game winning streak snapped at Home by MEMP...

Sacramento at Dallas: No total posted...Dirk Nowitzki is probable for Dallas...Dirk has been cleared to play by the Dallas team doctor after being poked in the eye during the last game...Dallas is 9-1 SU & ATS vs. SAC their last 10 h2h meetings at Dallas...Brad Miller is back for his 3rd game now (hasn't started yet but maybe tonight?)...SAC streaky this year ATS, themselves as they have won and covered 3 straight...Had a NC4 before that and a C3 before that...But I have said it before and I'll say it again...In the NBA, it is not easy to win 10 in a row, let alone 12, as Dallas has won 11 straight after starting the season 0-4...Wouldn't be surprised by a SU win for SAC here as the kings are finally at full strength...The Over is 4-1-1 ATS the last 6 h2h...

Milwaukee at Phoenix: 5 straight Overs h2h in this series...PHOE has had 5 straight Unders at Home, a first when Steve Nash plays just about all of them (he missed the Philly game with back spasms)...Suns 6-2 to the Under at Home this season, but they have played MEMP, HOU, NO, NJ at Home and generally speaking, those aer defensive-minded teams...I just don't see 6 straight games staying Under at PHOE when Nash plays in 5 of them...Milw is 28th and Phoe is 22nd in FG% allowed on the season...The Home team has covered 5 of the last 6 in this h2h series...

Orlando at Portland: Raef LaFrentz is doubtful for Portland...ORL is now #1 in FG% allowed this season, while PORT is 29th...The last 2 in this h2h series have gone Over after 7 straight Unders...ORL now 9-2-1 to the Under in their last 12 overall and have covered 4 straight and 8 of 10 overall after a NC5...PORT 0-3 SU & ATS their last 3 and Over 2 straight, 4 of 5 and 8 of 10 after having 5 straight Unders...I wonder if getting Joel Przybilla back for his second game after missing time with an injury will bring more rebounding and help for PORT overall (he did pull down 10 in 23 minutes last time out in a loss to Indy) as perhaps they can pull off a mini-upset here as I know the public will pound the Magic...

Indiana at Seattle: The Sonics are reeling, losing 3 straight overall (all at Home) and they have lost 5 of their last 6 at Home...Indy just beat GS and PORT o bk-to-bk nights as they hit Game 4 of their longest Road trip of the year...Indy has Covered 6 of their alst 7 overall, winning 5 of those games...Maybe Seattle's woes starts with defense as they are dead last in the league in FG% allowed...Despite that fact, they have gone Under 5 of their last 6...This h2h series has produced 6 straight and 7 of 8 Overs and 4 straight Overs at SEA...

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[brewers7]

Re: NBA Week 5 thread (35-20, +$1738 on the year)...

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Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ========================================================================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
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Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
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Season To Date: 39-20, +$2288

Sides: 18-8, +$1119, Totals: 13-9, +$701, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-1, +$193, ML: 1-1, +$29, Quarters: 3-0, +$250

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Friday, December 1

Milwaukee/Phoenix Over 216 -- $161 to win $150 --- (or Milw/Phoe Over 216 @1.935, 1.5/10, Pinnacle)

5 straight Overs h2h in this series, with 215 the lowest total reached and the other 4 all went over 230...PHOE has had 5 straight Unders at Home, a first since Steve Nash came to PHOE as I just checked the last 2 seasons and this includes the playoffs even...4 Home Overs in a row was the most I could find unless I missed something...Suns 6-2 to the Under at Home this season, but they have played MEMP, HOU, NO, NJ at Home and generally speaking, those are defensive-minded teams...I just don't see 6 straight games staying Under at PHOE when Nash plays in 5 of them...MILW is 28th and PHOE is 22nd in FG% allowed on the season...MILW is Over 2 straight after going Under 4 of 5...Phoenix has had 5 straight stone Overs in their last 5 games, so a 1Q Over is tempting, too, but for now, I will tke the Game Total Over and bet it now as I wonder about this total creeping towards 220 as the day moves along...

Good Luck...brewers7
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Friday's Picks for tracking purposes:

pending...

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Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above[/COLOR]...
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Recent Results:
Yesterday: 1-0 (+$150)
Last 3 days: 3-0 (+$450)
Last 7 days: 7-1 (+$695)
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http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
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Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management?Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble?Act professional?
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[BOBBYW]

Re: NBA Week 5 thread (35-20, +$1738 on the year)...

THANX B7 AND GLTY.....

 

[vsrajput]

Re: NBA Week 5 thread (35-20, +$1738 on the year)...

Thanks.
good luck

 

[UofM2003]

Re: NBA Week 5 thread (35-20, +$1738 on the year)...

Brewers, would you recommend still taking the over at 218? Or would you lay off of this one?

 

[brewers7]

Re: NBA Week 5 thread (35-20, +$1738 on the year)...

Brewers, would you recommend still taking the over at 218? Or would you lay off of this one?

4 out of the last 5 went over 230 h2h...Generally speaking, PHOE only seems to have Unders at Home if they are blowing a team out by 20+, then Nash or Barbosa just dribble around for 15 seconds per possession off made baskets by the opposition just to use clock and shorten the game...MILW played a Zone almost the entire Lakers game and the Lakers could not hit from the outside, taking a team-record 37 treys, and yet still put up 105 points...And let's face it, the Suns CAN shoot treys...

Your decision of course, sir...

GL...

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[UofM2003]

Re: NBA Week 5 thread (35-20, +$1738 on the year)...

4 out of the last 5 went over 230 h2h...Generally speaking, PHOE only seems to have Unders at Home if they are blowing a team out by 20+, then Nash or Barbosa just dribble around for 15 seconds per possession off made baskets by the opposition just to use clock and shorten the game...MILW played a Zone almost the entire Lakers game and the Lakers could not hit from the outside, taking a team-record 37 treys, and yet still put up 105 points...And let's face it, the Suns CAN shoot treys...

Your decision of course, sir...

GL...

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Good points. Seems like that 2 pt. difference between 216 and 218 seems relatively insignificant considering what you just mentioned (i.e. they'll end up scoring well below or well over that range). I think I'll take the over on this one.

Thanks for the response, and good luck tonight!

 

[UofM2003]

Re: NBA Week 5 thread (35-20, +$1738 on the year)...

4 out of the last 5 went over 230 h2h...Generally speaking, PHOE only seems to have Unders at Home if they are blowing a team out by 20+, then Nash or Barbosa just dribble around for 15 seconds per possession off made baskets by the opposition just to use clock and shorten the game...MILW played a Zone almost the entire Lakers game and the Lakers could not hit from the outside, taking a team-record 37 treys, and yet still put up 105 points...And let's face it, the Suns CAN shoot treys...

Your decision of course, sir...

GL...

<!-- / message -->

Good points. Seems like that 2 pt. difference between 216 and 218 seems relatively insignificant considering what you just mentioned (i.e. they'll end up scoring well below or well over that range). I think I'll take the over on this one.

Thanks for the response, and good luck tonight!