NBA Week 4 thread (28-15, +$1566 on the year)...

[brewers7]

========================================================================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ========================================================================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
========================================================================
Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
========================================================================
Season To Date: 28-15, +$1566

Sides: 12-4, +$843, Totals: 9-8, +$305, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-1, +$193, ML: 1-1, +$29, Quarters: 2-0, +$200

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Monday, November 20

Dallas Mavericks -3 -- $165 to win $150

Another square play here, but I am making this bet now to beat the line-move...Brevin Knight is questionable for CHAR and if he doesn't play Monday, CHAR is in big trouble here...Jerry Stackhouse is questionable and Josh Howard is still out for Dallas, and they ARE important to Dallas, but NOT as important as Knight, the starting point-guard is to CHAR as this link will verify:

http://www.82games.com/0607/0607CHA.HTM

Without Knight, Orlando basically led from start to finish against the Bobcats on Saturday...I worry about a slight look-ahead here for Dallas as they play at Washington on Tuesday, but Dallas played CHAR at CHAR on the front-end of a back-to-back last year and won by 10...Dallas has yet to lose to CHAR in 4 games against this franchise and have not won by less than 6... I hate taking square plays, but maybe I can get lucky here and win 2 square plays in 2 days...

Good Luck...brewers7
========================================================================

Monday's Picks for tracking purposes:

pending...

========================================================================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above[/COLOR]...
========================================================================
Recent Results:
Yesterday: 1-0 (+$100)
Last 3 days: 3-2 (+$336)
Last 7 days: 8-5 (+$487)
========================================================================
Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
========================================================================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management?Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble?Act professional?
========================================================================
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[Forecast 28]

Re: NBA Week 4 thread (28-15, +$1566 on the year)...

Brewers: As long as you are being modest, congratulations on what
you nearly pulled off on Saturday night...Very, very hard, this business
of striving for perfection...No surprise that you want to take on the
Charlotte Bobcats tonight...You deserve to get them back, and I
will be on your side.

 

[BOBBYW]

Re: NBA Week 4 thread (28-15, +$1566 on the year)...

THANX B7 AND GLTY.....HAVE A HAPPY TURKEY

 

[brewers7]

Re: NBA Week 4 thread (28-15, +$1566 on the year)...

Brewers: As long as you are being modest, congratulations on what
you nearly pulled off on Saturday night...Very, very hard, this business
of striving for perfection...No surprise that you want to take on the
Charlotte Bobcats tonight...You deserve to get them back, and I
will be on your side.

Yeah, you noticed that, huh...12-1 on my NBA sides...But I am still a bonehead though...In the NBA contest across the street, I made one play and I played CHAR because 1) the opening line was posted so I had 1.5 points of "value" and 2) I didn't know Knight wasn't going to play...So I went 12-1 on Sides on Saturday and my only loser went into that contest...So How smart am I, really?...

I could get burned here, too, with Dallas, because if Knight plays & Stackhouse does not, CHAR has an awesome chance of winning this game...This will NOT be an easy game for Dallas...

 

[FrankieGotti]

Re: NBA Week 4 thread (28-15, +$1566 on the year)...

very impressive week last week. Good job.

 

[Forecast 28]

Re: NBA Week 4 thread (28-15, +$1566 on the year)...

That's a funny story about Charlotte in the contest...For your information,
the Charlotte Observer reported that Brevin Knight will start tonight, but
the Dallas Morning News reported that Jerry Stackhouse will also
start...Devean George is out, but Austin Croshere filled that role
very well on Saturday with two-of-two three pointers, eight points and
five rebounds in 11 minutes...He was returning to the rotation after being benched,
due to the Stackhouse injury...Josh Howard also participated in a shootaround
this morning for the first time since his injury, and reportedly is close to returning
to the lineup.

Also thought I would let you know that Sam Smith of the Chicago Tribune,
who covered the Bulls during their title years, wrote last week that
sources tell him that Bobcats' president Michael Jordan wants Larry Brown to
coach in Charlotte...As you likely know, there is a longtime friendship there,
with both having attended North Carolina...If this is the case, it obviously can't
help Charlotte coach Bernie Bickerstaff in his player relationships...Also, Charlotte's
only two wins have been vs back-to-back teams coming off big wins, as they
beat Cleveland coming off a win vs San Antonio, and last week upset San
Antonio coming off a win vs Houston...They are 0-7 vs rested teams, and
have lost six of the seven games by 7+ points.

 

[brewers7]

Re: NBA Week 4 thread (28-15, +$1566 on the year)...

That's a funny story about Charlotte in the contest...For your information,
the Charlotte Observer reported that Brevin Knight will start tonight, but
the Dallas Morning News reported that Jerry Stackhouse will also
start...Devean George is out, but Austin Croshere filled that role
very well on Saturday with two-of-two three pointers, eight points and
five rebounds in 11 minutes...He was returning to the rotation after being benched,
due to the Stackhouse injury...Josh Howard also participated in a shootaround
this morning for the first time since his injury, and reportedly is close to returning
to the lineup.

Also thought I would let you know that Sam Smith of the Chicago Tribune,
who covered the Bulls during their title years, wrote last week that
sources tell him that Bobcats' president Michael Jordan wants Larry Brown to
coach in Charlotte...As you likely know, there is a longtime friendship there,
with both having attended North Carolina...If this is the case, it obviously can't
help Charlotte coach Bernie Bickerstaff in his player relationships...Also, Charlotte's
only two wins have been vs back-to-back teams coming off big wins, as they
beat Cleveland coming off a win vs San Antonio, and last week upset San
Antonio coming off a win vs Houston...They are 0-7 vs rested teams, and
have lost six of the seven games by 7+ points.

I did see where Stackhouse and Knight are probable...That helps CHAR more than Dallas...

I think Devean George is way over-rated, so when he gets hurt, it's never a concern for me...Maybe he's better than I think, but who knows...

Interesting story there...I haven't checked the Charlotte paper for a spell, thanx for the info...This would be a perfect team for Larry Brown to coach...A lot of young guys who hustle and care about defense and are coachable...

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Looks at Monday's games:

Dallas at Charlotte: If Charlotte was winless at Home this season, I would not have bet Dallas here, but the Bobcats have beaten Cleveland already here, so the drive for that FIRST Home win of the season, which can be a strong motivatioal factor if it hasn't happened into Week 3, is not there...Nonetheless, CHAR has beaten SA at SA this season and this Bobcats team will give teams fits this year as they are a quick, scrappy, solid defensive team an will play hard for 48 minutes...I got Dallas -3, not because I really love Dallas here, but because Vegas (or Pinnacle) opened with a bad line and because I am hoping Brevin Knight does not play tonight, their point-guard and most important player...A good hedge for betting Dallas wuould be to take this game Under...Because if CHAR wins or covers, the game should be an Under...CHAR is still the top defensive team in the league in terms of FG% allowed and Dallas, who was last, is now 27th, and expect them to continue to improve their because Coach Avery Johnson preaches defense and as soon as Josh Howard returns, I expect Dallas to get to the midle of the pack fairly quickly with that stat...The Under is the only way to go here with the total as CHAR's only Home Over since opening night was against Denver (does this even count?) and in fact, since opening night, that Denver game is their ONLY Over in their last 8 games (in regulation time)...The total has moved up 3.5 points since it opened but that's better for me if I bet it...All 4 of these h2h meetings have gone Under and Dallas has won all 4 games against this franchise by at least 6 points...Only one way to go on this total: Under...

Houston at New York: Who in their right mind would have thought that 3 weeks into the season that NY would be a better defensive team than Houston (in terms of FG% allowed)??...Not me...But NY is 13th in the league in FG% allowed, while Houston is just 16th...This would explain why Houston is having a LOT more Overs this year anyway...This is another trap-like game...I may be falling through the trap-door in the Dallas game, and I may fall into this trap, too...Hard to cap a Knicks game off their last contest where a whopping 113 Free throws were attempted (63 by BOS and 50 by NY) and 6 players fouled out...Neither team shot particularly well...Houston has won 4 straight and 6 of 7 in this head-to-head series, only covering 3 times and NY has in fact covered 3 straight...HOU hasn't lost 2 straight all season...NY had 4 straight Unders before their last game, so this is a mini chart-play to the Over...

Orlando at Memphis: The Magic have been a great chart-play after their NC5 as they have now covered 4 straight...However, the Grizz have lost 7 straight and would have to be hungry here for a "W" in fron of the home crowd... So I guess this is trap-game #3 on the day...I don't expect evey Away team or every Home team to cover these first 3 games, but I think the Home team with the best chance to win outright is MEMP...The Memphis newspaper says that the players are not feeling sorry for themsleves and like the new uptempo offense, and are still hungry to get some wins...MEMP is 7-1 SU and ATS the last 8 vs. ORL, but those numbers can more or less be tossed here with the injury to Gasol...Despite the up-tempo offense, the last game for MEMP was very slow-paced, which worries me slightly and will keep me off this total although the Over would seem to be the play here...5

Toronto at Utah: The Raptors are a chart-play here, because after a NC5, they hve covered their last 2...Let-down spot here for Utah off a big win over PHOE...Utah has 5 straight Overs and the Raptors are a run-and-gun squad and the Over certainly is the logical play here...Problem is TOR doesn't shoot for a high percentage from the floor and doesn't get to the FT much, so they may need to hit close to 48% to get Over this total and I am not sure if I can put money on that this time around...

San Antonio at Portland: SA has been a terrible back-to-back team lately (starting last season) to the point where it has even become a team issue...Coach Popovich didn't play any starter more than 33 minutes last night as he tries to keep his players as rested as possible for the back-enders...PORT has been a lot better at Home, yet the Spurs have still coverd 4 of the last 6 at PORT h2h...I think PORT can cover the number here, as the Spurs are already 1-2 on the back-end of bk-2-bks this season SU & ATS this season...PORT had 5 Unders in a row and then 4 straight Overs and now an Under last time out...Lean here to the under as 4 of the last 5 h2h have gone Under...

New Jersey at Seattle: The Nets shot 33.3% last time out vs. PORT, so an automatic look for me to NJ here, but this line is awfully low...It is a quick-revenge spot here for NJ, but SEA has won 4 of the last 5 h2h against NJ...SEA had covered 6 straight and now have a NC3, so it's still a chart-play to fade SEA here...These teams have gone Over 3 straight h2h...No strong opinion either way here...

Phoenix at Golden State: Baron Davis is questionable and Steve Nash is questionable, yet the line has moved 5 points in PHOE's favor...So this tells me that someone knows that Nash is playing or Davis is not or both...GS has won and covered 7 straight, but if Davis and Murphy don't play and if Nash does play, then PHOE would be the ONLY play here...The total is at 216.5 and with both starting point-guards questionable, there is no way I can touch the Over (or even the Under for that matter)...If everyone plays, then the Over is certainly the logical play...

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[GKNY]

Re: NBA Week 4 thread (28-15, +$1566 on the year)...

GL on your plays tonight buddy.

 

[brewers7]

Re: NBA Week 4 thread (28-15, +$1566 on the year)...

GL on your plays tonight buddy.

Thanx...

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I want to pull the trigger so bad on Memphis and Toronto as I feel MEMP will win this game and feel Toronto has an outside shot at winning this and certainly staying under the number...From a handicapping point of view, Toronto may be the strongest play on the board, but I have watched them play and they cannot hit the ocean at times...Depending on how the Dallas game is looking early, I may bet Toronto, we'll see...

Also considering the Dal/Char Over in the 1Q...Brevin Knight playing tonight changes a lot...This game has a shot at going Over now and CHAR has a good chance to win now...I hope Dallas shows up because that bet is already in...

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Monday's Picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) Dal, 2) Port, 3) Phoe, 4) Tor, 5) Memp, 6) Hou, 7) NJ

Totals:

1) Dal un, 2) Tor ov, 3) Memp ov, 4) Hou ov, 5) Port un, 6) NJ un, 7) Phoe un

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[CashKilla]

Re: NBA Week 4 thread (28-15, +$1566 on the year)...

Goodluck on all plays guys.. I too like the Toronto +9.5 for the simple fact I think Utah will drop their guard a little too low on this game. Thing is Toronto have burnt me a couple times this season, so I'm just not going to go near this one..

 

[brewers7]

Re: NBA Week 4 thread (28-15, +$1566 on the year)...

=======================================================================

Early looks at Tuesday's games:

Detroit at Philadelphia: No line posted due to Iverson and 2 others being questionable, although AI's status the only one that matters here...Detroit has taken over this h2h series as they have won 5 straight and 7 of 8 against Philly, covering 4 and pushing 2 (and this includes the 04-05 playoffs)...The Sixers have come back down to earth after a 3-0 start and have gone 1-5 since...Philly is 2-1 SU & ATS at Home so far, have been one of the worst if not the worst Home Cover team in the league since Larry Brown left town for Detroit, and with DET winning both trips to PHI last season by 7 and 11 points, I would say if DET is favored by 4 or less here, then the Pistons are the play...Philly is 11th in FG% allowed this season and Detroit 17th (shockingly enough)...DET Under in 4 of their 5 Road games while Philly is 2-1 to the Over at Home (but 1 was against Denver) and the Sixers have had 3 straight Unders in regulation time coming into this game...

Milwaukee at Indiana: Al Harrington is questionable, but I don't see why that should keep this line off the board, as Harrington missed the last game and the Pacers won anyway in come-from-behind fashion...I generally like to fade the team that won the front-end of a Home-and-Home series, so since Indy won 102-100 on Saturday at MILW, I will naturally be inclined to take the Bucks here at Indy no matter what the line is...Indy Over 3 straight games and MILW has been an Over team all year so a natural lean to the Over unless the total is ...

Memphis at Cleveland: Larry Hughes questionable for Cleveland here...This is the first of our 4-games-in-5-days trend and if you don't know it by now, don't worry, I will keep mentioning it all season long until you learn that in ANY 4-games-in-5-days NBA game, you always take the Away Team, no matter which team is playing the 4 games in 5 days...You wll win money in the long run and don't even have to handicap the game...But hey, call me old-fashioned, but I will go ahead and handicap the game anyway, because that is what I do and I never bet any trend blindly, although this trend is about as close as you can get to betting one blindly...After all, the 4-of-5 trend is 6-2 ATS this season with the Away team being the 4 of 5 team in every instance (we have our FIRST 4-of-5 Home Team instance coming up today in a laetr game)...However, in this game, we have a clash of strong handicapping trends, as what I call the NBA Handicapping 101 trend is also in play, and it states that you always take the Good bounce-back team off a loss against the Bad let-down team off an upset win...Which trend holds up here?...Well, the NBA Handicapping 101 trend is a bit stronger not giving so many points, but CLE is rested, while MEMP is not...Plus, MEMP wasn't a huge Dog and it wasn't a major upset, so I would say that taking MEMP is the play here with the points, as CLE still has Hughes Out and until last season, CLE had trouble beating MEMP at Home...CLE is 2-1 ATS this season when they have rest and their opponent does not while MEMP is 1-2 ATS in the reverse situational spot...MEMP has gone Under in all 3 of their back-to-back games this season, while CLE has gone Under in 2 of 3 in their situational spot for tonight...

Miami at New Orleans: David West still OUT for the Hornets...Jason Williams did return last week for Miami, while Peyton and Posey are probable for Tuesday...NO covered against Miami both games alst season and beat them soundly at NO and Shaq DID play that game...There seem to be some hints in Miami papers about Riley experimenting with some small-ball lineups, but I'll believe it when I see it...Miami cannot help but maybe have an eye on their next game at SA, but is NO looking ahead to PHOE tomorrow?...Doubt it, but the streaky Hornets are at again this year, with 4 wins, 3 losses and 3 wins (3 Covers, 4 NCs and 3 Covers)...The Heat won in OT last time out at ATL...No opinion on the total but the last 3 in this h2h series went Over...

Washington at Dallas: Jarvis Hayes questionable for the Wiz, while Devean George remains doubtful and Josh Howard is still Out...Here is the first 4-games-in-5-days contest for a Home Team this season...This trend is generally STRONGER taking the Away Team in this situational spot...The 4 of 5 trend is at its strongest (taking the Away Team, of course) when both teams are playing 4 games in 5 days...But this line has come down a point already...And WAS is off a big win at Home vs. CLE...Dallas has won 5 straight and 8 of 9 and has covered 4 of the last 5 vs. WAS...The Mavs come into this game winning 6 straight and are 2-0 & 1-1 ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bks, a spot they weren't that great in last year...However, WAS is 2-1 SU & 2-0-1 ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not this season...I don't see any trends I can sink my teeth into for this total...

Chicago at Denver: Andre Miller is probable for Denver after getting hurt in the final minute of the Toronto game on Saturday...The Bulls are on their extended November Road Trip to start the season again due to the circus being in town at CHI...Since the 1999-2000 season, the Bulls are 4-45 SU and 18-30-1 ATS during these November Road trips...Yes, 4-45 SU...It gets better...They lost the first 37 games of this streak...It wasn't until their first post-Jordan era playoff appearance in 2004-05 did they even get a win during this NOV Road trip and that was in Game 6 of that 7-game Road trip...They lost the 7th game and then the first 3 games of this trip in 2005-06 to go to 1-41 SU, before winning the final 3 games of this trip last season as they won by 3 at the Lakers (4-5 record), by 7 at San Antonio (10-2 record) and by 5 at Houston (3-10 record)...The Bulls were 3-5 going into the Lakers game...This made the Bulls 4-41 SU during this November "circus" Road trip coming into 2006-07, and for this year's trip, they have lost all 3 in the Texas Triangle and then at the Lakers to go to 4-45 SU and head to Denver tonight, Philly on FRI and NY on SAT...

Can the Bulls win the last 3 games of the trip again this season?...Well, the Bulls shot 33.8% from the floor their last outing, which will make me take a Pavlovian look at the Bulls as if a bell was ringing somewhere...I also find it hard to believe this CHI team will lose 5 straight...DEN is 0-3 ATS at Home...The Bulls did win here last season after DEN had won and covered 5 straight in this h2h series...As far as the total goes, well, this is an NBA game which Denver is playing, so I have an automatic knee-jerk reaction into taking the Over here and this inclination is backed up with DEN being 3-0 to the Over at Home...

LA Clippers at LA Lakers: The Clips starting out 6-2 should be no surprise to any NBA follower, but the lakers starting out 7-3 is probably a bit of surprise, especially with Kobe missing the first 2 games and not being 100% all season to this point...This has ben a nip-and-tuck h2h series, with neither team establishing dominance over the other in recent years...They share the same Home floor...I may give a slight edge to the Lakers cheerleaders here, but that is strictly on reputation as even that is a toss-up now...The Clips are unbeaten (6-0) at Staples this season, but the Lakers are 6-1 at Staples...The Clips have beaten better teams, though...Tough call on the side but a lean to the Clips...The Lakers have gone Under 6 straight after going Over their first 4 games...The Clips only Over at Staples in regulation this season was against Phoenix...So lean to the Under...

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[dd2]

Re: NBA Week 4 thread (28-15, +$1566 on the year)...

THANKS for the info

 

[Forecast 28]

Re: NBA Week 4 thread (28-15, +$1566 on the year)...

Brewers: You were destined to win that Dallas vs Charlotte game last night after
what happened on Saturday...I was surprised that you were so concerned as things developed....Keep your eye on West vs East possible lack of parity...The Western Conference teams won all five confrontations last night with Toronto as the only East cover, in a situation that clearly favored them, as you astutely pointed
out...The West is also significantly ahead for the season, and at present there are
eight Western teams above .500 and only two in the East.

 

[brewers7]

Re: NBA Week 4 thread (28-15, +$1566 on the year)...

Brewers: You were destined to win that Dallas vs Charlotte game last night after
what happened on Saturday...I was surprised that you were so concerned as things developed....Keep your eye on West vs East possible lack of parity...The Western Conference teams won all five confrontations last night with Toronto as the only East cover, in a situation that clearly favored them, as you astutely pointed
out...The West is also significantly ahead for the season, and at present there are
eight Western teams above .500 and only two in the East.

I like your info Forecast 28...

What makes a forum stronger is people sharing information...It helps everyone...Keep the info coming, I enjoy having a back-and-forth with people who follow the NBA and know it like you do...

Memphis has had an incredible record against the Eastern Conference for at least 5 years running now...And yes, the West in general has dominated the East for a while now, and I think it is interesting that the ESPN Nation talking heads were saying all of Week 1 how the East has dramatically improved and caught up to the West this year and they also said that there are no easy wins this season for anybody...I do agree with the latter, as there is incredible parity in the league this season like I haven't seen in a while, but I am not convinced that the East stands on almost equal ground with the West in 2006-07...Not convinced at all...

GL to ya, sir...

 

[brewers7]

Re: NBA Week 4 thread (28-15, +$1566 on the year)...

========================================================================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ========================================================================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
========================================================================
Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
========================================================================
Season To Date: 29-15, +$1716

Sides: 13-4, +$993, Totals: 9-8, +$305, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-1, +$193, ML: 1-1, +$29, Quarters: 2-0, +$200

========================================================================

May have another play soon...

Tuesday, November 21

Detroit Pistons -3 -- $100 to win $100

Allen Iverson is OUT tonight...Being a Sixers fan, I am going to play this small...Why?...Because in the past, the 76ers have risen up without AI and done well...But that was several years ago...In more recent years, Philly has not fared as well without Mr. Iverson...The funny part is, I already liked Detroit at -1 with Iverson playing...Chris Webber and Stephen Hunter being questionable doesn't matter that much, but it hurts their depth because they are losing about 38 minutes worth of play from the combined minutes of the two...I watched most of the Sixers/Clippers game on Saturday, and the announcers were super-proud of the Sixers' effort because they were under-manned...So if Webber and Hunter are still Out, and now with AI Out and there is another 40+ minutes that someone needs to fill in, I would be hard-pressed to see an under-manned Philly squad rise up here, BUT, with that said, this is only a minimum play for me because I ahve seen the Sixers rise up without AI before...

Good Luck...brewers7
========================================================================

Tuesday's Picks for tracking purposes:

pending...

========================================================================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above[/COLOR]...
========================================================================
Recent Results:
Yesterday: 1-0 (+$150)
Last 3 days: 3-2 (+$336)
Last 7 days: 8-5 (+$487)
========================================================================
Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
========================================================================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management?Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble?Act professional?
========================================================================
<!-- / message --><!-- / message -->
<!-- / message -->

 

[brewers7]

Re: NBA Week 4 thread (28-15, +$1566 on the year)...

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Tuesday, November 21

Detroit/Philadelphia under 189 -- $105 to win $100

How do you replace 30 points with Iverson Out?...You don't...On 2/3/06, Iverson didn't play against DET at Home and the Pistons won 87-80...This may even be a better play than the side, but I'll make it an equal play...DET already has 4 Unders in 5 Road games, and for me, for Philly to have any chance, they will need to slow the pace down because they won't be able to score with the Pistons...And the Sixers in the past do not look to run when AI is not in the lineup...

Good Luck...brewers7
========================================================================

 

[Forecast 28]

Re: NBA Week 4 thread (28-15, +$1566 on the year)...

I am glad you encourage more information...I agree with that philosophy...I see you like Detroit tonight...An added feature to the play is that Rasheed Wallace is from Philadelphia, and I believe he has a history of playing very well in front of his hometown crowd...If you get a quality game from Detroit , it shouldn't matter how hard Philly plays without Iverson...A couple of other things on tonight's games...Memphis may be 2-8, but they have not lost a road game by more than 10 points, even though they have faced Detroit, Phoenix, LA Lakers, Sacramento and Dallas, all likely above average teams......Their only 11+ loss was at home to Dallas by
12, a game that was close for 45 minutes....But Cleveland has produced two 13 + wins in its last two home games vs Minnesota and Portland.

The early returns on Milwaukee minus Charlie Villeneuva are not good, with a 13-point loss at NJ and a two-point home loss to Indiana in which they lost a 17 point lead even though they were rested and Indiana was on back-to-back without Al Harrington...With Bobby Simmons also out, their primary three forwards are Ruben Patterson, Brian Skinner, and 19-year old
Ersan Ilyasova from Turkey...There is probably favorable trend information on the Bucks in the immediate revenge game, but the Milwaukee situation at forward is clearly not a good one right now...Reports are surfacing that
some Chicago players are concerned that management did the wrong
thing by bringing in two defensive oriented players in Ben Wallace and PJ Brown, leaving the team with little offense in the low post...Going into
tonight's game at Denver, they are 0-5 vs the West, with just one
cover at Houston that barely got there on a late comeback...Denver
has won its last four while playing on rest.

 

[brewers7]

Re: NBA Week 4 thread (28-15, +$1566 on the year)...

I am glad you encourage more information...I agree with that philosophy...I see you like Detroit tonight...An added feature to the play is that Rasheed Wallace is from Philadelphia, and I believe he has a history of playing very well in front of his hometown crowd...If you get a quality game from Detroit , it shouldn't matter how hard Philly plays without Iverson...A couple of other things on tonight's games...Memphis may be 2-8, but they have not lost a road game by more than 10 points, even though they have faced Detroit, Phoenix, LA Lakers, Sacramento and Dallas, all likely above average teams......Their only 11+ loss was at home to Dallas by
12, a game that was close for 45 minutes....But Cleveland has produced two 13 + wins in its last two home games vs Minnesota and Portland.

The early returns on Milwaukee minus Charlie Villeneuva are not good, with a 13-point loss at NJ and a two-point home loss to Indiana in which they lost a 17 point lead even though they were rested and Indiana was on back-to-back without Al Harrington...With Bobby Simmons also out, their primary three forwards are Ruben Patterson, Brian Skinner, and 19-year old
Ersan Ilyasova from Turkey...There is probably favorable trend information on the Bucks in the immediate revenge game, but the Milwaukee situation at forward is clearly not a good one right now...Reports are surfacing that
some Chicago players are concerned that management did the wrong
thing by bringing in two defensive oriented players in Ben Wallace and PJ Brown, leaving the team with little offense in the low post...Going into
tonight's game at Denver, they are 0-5 vs the West, with just one
cover at Houston that barely got there on a late comeback...Denver
has won its last four while playing on rest.

Good stuff...No, great stuff...I like it...Still wondering about pulling the trigger on WASH and I am looking at the Bulls, too...

========================================================================

Tuesday's Picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) Was, 2) Det, 3) Chi, 4) Memp, 5) LAC, 6) NO, 7) Milw

Totals:

1) Det un, 2) Chi ov, 3) LAC un, 4) Was ov, 5) Memp un, 6) Milw un, 7) NO ov

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[brewers7]

Re: NBA Week 4 thread (28-15, +$1566 on the year)...

Ok, last night I did not pull the trigger on 2 games and they both won, so tonight, I will pull the trigger on 2 other games and we'll see if I regret this or not...I will keep it at a minimum amount as I now have 4 plays in action tonight...

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Additional plays:

Tuesday, November 21

Washington Wizards +5 -- $109 to win $100

Opened at 6, fell to 4.5, now at 5, I'll take it and hope that WAS shows up here...This is one of two 4-games-in-5-days Trend games in play for tonight, and since MEMP is struggling mightily early (which I was worried about slightly after a big win last night -- but they can still Cover), I will take my shot with the Wizards since Dallas is playing their 4th game in 5 nights at Home, and fading the Home Team in this spot always seems stronger than taking the 4-of-5 Away Team in this spot over the years...Also, The Mavs do play SA next, so with a revenge-game on the horizon, you gotta wonder about a bit of a look-ahead...Dallas has to travel from Charlotte last night while WASH was already in Dallas last night...Mavs have won 6 straight after their 0-4 start...

Chicago Bulls +3 -- $105 to win $100

I cannot get away from this one after the Bulls shot about 34% last time out and have now lost 4 in a row during this Road trip...DEN 1-2 SU at Home and 0-3 ATS...The Bulls rely too much on their outside shots, but they should be able to get more than that here with this Denver squad...The Bulls won here last year and I see this is a good spot for Chicago to break out of their slump and grab a "W" at Denver, which the T'Wolves and Knicks already did this season...

Good Luck...brewers7
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[brewers7]

Re: NBA Week 4 thread (28-15, +$1566 on the year)...

========================================================================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ========================================================================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
========================================================================
Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
========================================================================
Season To Date: 31-17, +$1702

Sides: 14-6, +$879, Totals: 10-8, +$405, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-1, +$193, ML: 1-1, +$29, Quarters: 2-0, +$200

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Sorry for lateness, but with 14 NHL and 13 NBA games to handicap and phone calls coming in on NCAA games, it's been hectic...I will try and write up some notes on later games if there is time...

Wednesday, November 22

Atlanta Hawks +6.5 -- $102 to win $100

The Hawks have lost 3 straight but have covered 4 of the last 5 in DET, and we have DET playing a bk-2-bk here...DET is 2-1 ATS in this spot this year and Atlanta lost and did not Cover against Miami at Home in OT last time out with 3 days left and Miami was playing the back-end of a bk-2-bk...Rip Hamilton is questionable, but regardless, I am banking on the fact that ATL is not going to mess up 2 straight games in this situational spot, having 3 days rest against an unrested team, and the 6.5 points are a nice cushion...

Miami/San Antonio under 183 -- $104 to win $100

This h2h series had gone Under 13 straight and 16 of 17 before an Over took place the last meeting at Miami on 1/20/06...The Heat have not won at SA since 12/23/96 ...They have gone Under 7 straight in this building...The Spurs have gone Under every game (5 of them) at Home this season in regulation time and have played PHOE and NY at Home...This has been an Under series and I cannot get away from that fact...Miami stayed Under even with OT on their only back-ender this year, and that was ATL...

Golden State Warriors -3 -- $105 to win $100

Huge win for Denver last night and J.R. Smith had a career-high 36 points in the game of his life...Earl Boykins has the flu and is questionable, and he is a spark-plug and will be missed if he doesn't play again...Monta Ellis is probable and Baron Davis is still questionable, but I am playing the situational let-down spot here...Plus, DEN is 0-2 ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bks thus far, And GS has covered 3 straight at Home when they have rest and their opponents do not...I go by the closing line, so GS has covered 8 straight and this bothers me because there have been roughly 40 instances of a team covering 8 in a row the last 15 years and most of them end after 8 Covers...But, GS did NOT cover the opening line against PHOE, so I have to maybe throw this out the window this time and just stick with the situational spot and take the rested bounce-back team at Home vs. the let-down team on the Road who does not have rest...

Good Luck...brewers7
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Wednesday's Picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) Atl, 2) Char, 3) NJ, 4) GS, 5) Sac, 6) Was, 7) Mia, 8) Ind, 9) Tor, 10) Sea, 11) NY, 12) Phi, 13) NO

Totals:

1) Mia un, 2) Char un, 3) Phi un, 4) NO un, 5) NJ un, 6) GS ov, 7) Tor ov, 8) Atl un, 9) NY ov, 10) Ind un, 11) Sac un, 12) Was un, 13) Sea ov

========================================================================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above[/COLOR]...
========================================================================
Recent Results:
Yesterday: 2-2 (-$14)
Last 3 days: 4-2 (+$236)
Last 7 days: 10-3 (+$742)
========================================================================
Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
========================================================================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
========================================================================

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[Hoosier Daddy]

Re: NBA Week 4 thread (28-15, +$1566 on the year)...

Brewers, I'm on Atlanta and GSW with you. Let's hope we don't have heartbreakers like last night.


HD

 

[brewers7]

Re: NBA Week 4 thread (28-15, +$1566 on the year)...

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Early looks at Friday's games (keep in mind that NBA injury reports often times are just not accurate and I have seen first-hand the last 2 seasons that they have been less and less accurate):

New York at Boston: Delonte West is questionable for Boston...Quick-revenge spot for the Knicks, who just lost to BOS at MSG on 11/18...240 points in that game, yet the Vegas total is pretty much the same total as on 11/18...Both teams combined to shoot about 41% for that game, but also combined for 113 FTs...This h2h series has gone Over 4 of the last 5 and 3 of the last 4 at BOS...The Celtics have covered 4 of 5 and 8 of 10 in this h2h series...Doc Rivers blasted his team and said his team played "like crap" at Charlotte, so we'll see if that has any effect for a coach who may be the first one to get fired this season...The Knicks are coming off a bad loss themselves where Coach Isiah Thomas brought Steve Francis off the bench for the first time this season, splitting up the Francis-Marbury combo and that experiment failed miserably for some reason, as the Knicks were down 30-13 after 1Q and never recovered...Thomas hinted he probably wouldn't try that again for now...

Chicago at Philadelphia: No line posted yet...Tyrus Thomas is still questionable for Chicago...Allen Iverson, Chris Webber and Stephen Hunter are still questionable for Philly...How long can CHI go before they can win a game on this 7-game Road trip?...Only 2 chances left as they have gone 0-for-5 to this point and are now 4-46 straight up when the circus comes to CHI since 1999-00...Philly had owned CHI during this same time-frame until the past 2 years, where now the Bulls have won and covered 4 of the last 6 h2h meetings...Philly has gone Under 5 straight in regulation and has been an Under team when Iverson doesn't play, historically...CHI GM John Paxson got headlines after their last game for saying the Bulls are playing with no passion or energy...I don't see Philly winning this game under ANY circumstances, I don't care if you put a uniform on Mo Cheeks and bring back Dr. J, Bobby Jones, Moses Malone and Andrew Toney...CHI takes this one...

Toronto at Atlanta: Morris Peterson is questionable for Toronto...The Raptors had won 5 straight in this 2h2 series before ATL won the last 2...TOR has covered 4 straight after a NC5, so they are still a chart-play...The Raptors actually played some defense and made a concerted effort on the boards and slowed the pace down significantly in their win vs. CLE at Toronto last time out, holding the Cavs under 40% shooting for the game...These 2 teams did go Over on 11/10 at TOR, but it was because of a 128-point 2nd half...ATL has just one Over at Home in 5 games this season, so with TOR being Under 4 of their last 5, one has to wonder if this won't be an Under...ATL has also been a great 1st half Under team this season...ATL still 2nd in the league in FG% allowed on defense, while TOR is 5th-worst...

Orlando at Miami: Grant Hill is probable for Friday for Orlando (but questionable for Saturday)...Jason Williams and James Posey are questionable for Miami...Coach Pat Riley said he is done being Mr. Nice Guy with this Heat team after yet another flat effort where Riley basically intimated that his team quit once they saw the fact that the Spurs were going to just keep taking it to them...The Magic split with Miami last year at both arenas and would love to kick this team while they are down...ORL has a NC2 after a C4 and has 4 Unders and a Push in in their last 5 games...MIA should have the motivational edge here and this line is just a Pick, but ORL clearly has the better team right now...

Dallas at San Antonio: Devean George is doubtful for Dallas...The Spurs' Home OT loss against the Bobcats obviously served as a wake-up call because the Spurs have won and covered 4 straight since that loss to move to 10-2...Dallas has won 7 straight after losing 4 straight to start the season, covering 6...A revenge spot here as the Spurs came to Dallas and won on 11/2 by 6...A dead-even h2h series here, as these teams have split their last 16 regular season meetings (7 Overs and 9 Unders)...Lean here to the under as 4 of the last 5 h2h have gone Under...Dallas 3 straight Unders after 4 Overs, while the Spurs are going the other way with 3 straight Overs after 5 straight Unders in regulation...Lean here to Dallas...

Cleveland at Indiana: Larry Hughes is expected to miss for Cleveland...The Home Team has won 6 of the last 7 in this h2h series and CLE has won 3 straight in this series...6 straight Unders here, too, h2h...Despite an early win at SA, the Cavs still don't seem to be a strong Road Team, as they are 2-3 on the Road...CLE hasn't covered 3 straight, while Indy has covered 3 straight overall...

Minnesota at New Orleans: David West is doubtful for New Orleans...The Hornets were a streaky ATS team last year and they have picked up right where they left off this year...They started with a C3, then NC4, then C4 and now a Not Cover (on the closing line) at PHOE last time out...NO already beat the T'Wolves at Minny by 3 and the Hornets have covered 8 of the last 9 in this h2h series...NO 5th and MIN 11th in the league in FG% allowed, but these 2 teams have gone Over 2 straight and 7 of the last 9 h2h...I don't know if the Hornets have gotten to the point where they "look-ahead" yet, but they play Dallas on Saturday...

Charlotte at Detroit: No line posted yet...Brevin Knight is still questionable for Charlotte...DET swept CHAR last season after the expansion Bobcats somehow beat the Pistons twice in their inaugural season...DET has Miami on Saturday, so this could be a look-ahead spot...The Pistons have won 4 straight and CHAR won their last time out against BOS...CHAR is 1st and Detroit 9th in FG% allowed...

Washington at Memphis: I am still researching long-term results, but a system-play of playing a team on the 1st-half line the game AFTER shooting less than 34% from the field their previous game has gone 3-0 ATS this season already (if I am not mistaken)...WASH shot 33.3% last time out...WASH has lost 5 of 6 and have been struggling with their shooting during this stretch...WAS has gone Under 5 of their last 6...MEMP Rookie point-guard Kyle Lowry factured his left wrist and will be Out indefinitely and it is a blow to the team because he was coming into his own and provided this team with a lot of energy for his roughly 16 minutes of play per game...I wonder about MEMP continuing to play small-ball and quicken the pace, because Lowry was a factor in doing this...This could be a 1Q Over waiting to happen here...

LA Lakers at Utah: Ronny Turiaf and Jordan Farmar are questionable for the Lakers...Andrei Kirilenko is questionable for Utah...Utah's Derek Fisher gets to play his former team for the first time in a Jazz uniform...The Jazz are off to a franchise-best 11-1 record with a stunning come-from-behind win last time out SAC, erasing an 18-point half-time lead and outscoring SAC 39-17 in the 4Q and 73-46 in the 2H (thanks mainly in part to Mike Bibby leaving the game with an injury)...The Jazz have covered 9 of the last 10 in this h2h series, with 7 Overs in the last 11...The Lakers are 8-3 and are also coming off a big win against the Clippers...Utah Over 6 of the last 7, while the Lakers finally got an Over the last time out after 6 straight Unders...To me, when in doubt, take the points, as the Jazz cannot keep this up forever...The Jazz have won 4 of the last 5 vs. LAL at Home by at least 5 every time, though...

Golden State at Denver: Earl Boykins is questionable for Denver...The Nuggets are an Over machine and just played a 227 against GS at GS 2 days ago, so why should this game be any different?...DEN 8-1-1 to the Over on the season, with the only Under coming opening night, and Melo got tossed early in the 3Q of that game, or else that may have been another Over...Melo has been unstoppable this season, leading the league in scoring...And this 227 total two days ago was LOWER than 3 of the last 4 totals these teams played to h2h in their last 4 games...These 2 teams have gone Over 7 of the last 8 games h2h as it is, and 3 of their totals in the last 4 games before this 227 were 236, 230 & 228, and this is before BOTH teams have changed their offensive philosophy for the 2006-07 season...Why should anyone be scared of a 221 total here?...Neither team shot lights out 2 days ago and there were 177 shots taken, which should easily be equalled again...GS had covered 8 straight before this loss to DEN, so a chart-play here to fade GS is in play, but this conflicts with the Home-and-Home revenge spot situational trend, so I'll have to pass on the Side, but there is no other play on the Total except Over...

Sacramento at Seattle: No line posted yet...Mike Bibby is questionable and Ron Artest is probable for Sacramento...Danny Fortson is OUT for Seattle...SAC has lost 3 straight and have Not Covered 4 straight...After a C6 for SEA, they had a NC3 and now have covered 2 straight...The Home Team has won 9 of 11 in this h2h series...The total is 15-6-1 to the Over in this h2h series the last 22...The injury to Bibby is obviously the key here and makes this game a stay-away game...

New Jersey at Phoenix: No line posted yet...Leandro Barbosa is questionable, while Amare Stoudamire is probable for Phoenix...Since Coach Mike D'Antoni has taken over the reigns at PHOE, the NO/PHOE h2h series has been a Stone Under series, as witnessed yet again 2 days ago, with the game staying 35 points Under the Vegas total...The NJ/PHOE h2h series has been the same way, with 4 Unders in 5 meetings since D'Antoni took over...These 5 totals have been 182, 173, 218, 192 & 161...The 218 was at PHOE...The Home Team has won 12 of the last 13 in this h2h series, covering 11...NJ has lost straight overall, not covering any of those 3 games...

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[brewers7]

Re: NBA Week 4 thread (28-15, +$1566 on the year)...

========================================================================

I am going to make an early play here because I don't see this total moving downward during the day:

Friday, November 24

Golden State/Denver over 220.5 -- $101 to win $100

I am not a linesmaker or bookie, but I play one on TV...actually, no I don't but I simply do not believe this total is going to end up any lower than this by game time...I feel it may end up around 223...Could be wrong...Denver has yet to have a Home game go Under this year...The Nuggets are an Over machine and just played a 227 against GS at GS 2 days ago, so why should this game be any different?...DEN 8-1-1 to the Over on the season, with the only Under coming opening night, and Melo got tossed early in the 3Q of that game, or else that may have been another Over...Melo has been unstoppable this season, leading the league in scoring...And this 227 total two days ago was LOWER than 3 of the last 4 totals these teams played to h2h prior to Wednesday...These 2 teams have gone Over 7 of the last 8 games h2h as it is, and 3 of their totals in the last 4 games before this 227 were 236, 230 & 228, and this is before BOTH teams have changed their offensive philosophy for the 2006-07 season...Why should anyone be scared of a 221 total here?...Neither team shot lights out 2 days ago and there were 177 shots taken, which should easily be equalled again...This game may stay Under, but I defy anyone to present me with any handicapping evidence prior to the start of the game that this will stay Under...

Good Luck...brewers7
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[Doug]

Re: NBA Week 4 thread (28-15, +$1566 on the year)...

Brewers: I recall a trend towards unders on the day after Thanksgiving, but if I recall correctly it was strongest on early games, so not applicable this year.

I think road teams also tended to do better with the home guys being home and partying it up.

I can't go over that big number, I'm passing it.

 

[brewers7]

Re: NBA Week 4 thread (28-15, +$1566 on the year)...

========================================================================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ========================================================================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
========================================================================
Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
========================================================================
Season To Date: 31-17, +$1593

Sides: 14-6, +$879, Totals: 10-8, +$405, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-1, +$193, ML: 1-1, +$29, Quarters: 2-0, +$200

========================================================================

Additional play:

Looking at other games, but playing this one as it was obvious I was going to be playing this game after my "preview" last night...

Friday, November 24

Chicago Bulls -1.5 -- $155 to win $150

How long can CHI go before they can win a game on this 7-game Road trip?...Only 2 chances left as they have gone 0-for-5 to this point and are now 4-46 straight up when the circus comes to CHI since 1999-00...Philly had owned CHI during this same time-frame until the past 2 years, where now the Bulls have won and covered 4 of the last 6 h2h meetings...CHI GM John Paxson got headlines after their last game for saying the Bulls are playing with no passion or energy...I simply do not see this team just bagging this Road trip and "curing" things once they get back to Chicago...They need a win NOW...Chicago made the playoffs the last 2 years and are expected to this season, and in each of the last 2 seasons, they won Game 6 of this Road trip, including 2004-05, where they lost the first 5 games of that trip, too, and were 0-9 on the season up until that point...I have said it before and I'll say it again: The Sixers have pretty much been the worst Home ATS team in the league since Larry Brown left town, but they do just fine on the Road with points...They are a DOG this time at Home, so all they need to do is win, but hey, I am a Sixers fan and I do not see this happening tonight...In fact, I'd be stunned if the Bulls lose this game...

Good Luck...brewers7
========================================================================

Friday's Picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) Chi, 2) Atl, 3) Sea, 4) LAL, 5) Char, 6) Dal, 7) Mia, 8) NY, 9) Den, 10) Was, 11) Phoe, 12) Ind, 13) NO

Totals:

1) Den ov, 2) NY ov, 3) Atl un, 4) Dal ov, 5) Char un, 6) Chi ov, 7) Was ov, 8) Sea un, 9) NO un, 10) Ind un, 11) Mia un, 12) Phoe un, 13) LAL ov

========================================================================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above[/COLOR]...
========================================================================
Recent Results:
Yesterday: 1-2 (-$109)
Last 3 days: 4-4 (+$27)
Last 7 days: 8-6 (+$513)
========================================================================
Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
========================================================================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
========================================================================

 

[Forecast 28]

Re: NBA Week 4 thread (28-15, +$1566 on the year)...

Brewers: I watched the Denver / GS game on Wednesday and would agree with that over...I have a source close to the Chicago situation who tells me there are internal problems there...Still, if there is a time to take them, I would agree it would be tonight, especially if Webber and Hunter
are out...If Webber is out, Luol Deng would likely be facing former Duke teammate Shavlik Randolph for extended minutes, and this would likely
give an added motivational advantage to Deng as the clearly superior talent
...Washington has not won a road game and lost by 20 in New York, should
they really be favored at Memphis with the East struggling to get road
wins vs West ?...Kyle Lowry injury hurts, but they lost by two after trailing by as much as 20 at Cleveland in back-to-back vs rest disadvantage...
Lowry was big in the Monday win vs Wash, but a minor contributor in the Cleveland game in which he got injured, and they still have
three capable guards in Atkins, Stoudamire and Gay...The last time
Phoenix played NJ last season, they lost 110-72, and trailed 83-45
after three quarters...Could that game be a factor in tonight's level of
intensity by Suns?...New Orleans is unbeaten in four games, allowing just 86
points per game, and showed they could beat Wolves without David West
on the road...Is Minny good enough to hand Hornets their first home loss?

 

[brewers7]

Re: NBA Week 4 thread (28-15, +$1566 on the year)...

Brewers: I watched the Denver / GS game on Wednesday and would agree with that over...I have a source close to the Chicago situation who tells me there are internal problems there...Still, if there is a time to take them, I would agree it would be tonight, especially if Webber and Hunter
are out...If Webber is out, Luol Deng would likely be facing former Duke teammate Shavlik Randolph for extended minutes, and this would likely
give an added motivational advantage to Deng as the clearly superior talent
...Washington has not won a road game and lost by 20 in New York, should
they really be favored at Memphis with the East struggling to get road
wins vs West ?...Kyle Lowry injury hurts, but they lost by two after trailing by as much as 20 at Cleveland in back-to-back vs rest disadvantage...
Lowry was big in the Monday win vs Wash, but a minor contributor in the Cleveland game in which he got injured, and they still have
three capable guards in Atkins, Stoudamire and Gay...The last time
Phoenix played NJ last season, they lost 110-72, and trailed 83-45
after three quarters...Could that game be a factor in tonight's level of
intensity by Suns?...New Orleans is unbeaten in four games, allowing just 86
points per game, and showed they could beat Wolves without David West
on the road...Is Minny good enough to hand Hornets their first home loss?

WAS a lot more of a "public" team than MEMP, which is why the line is where it is at, and even though I agree that WAS should not technically be favored here, my gut says they should take this one...

Whether CHI has internal problems or not, this is still basketball and once the ball is tossed up in the air at center court, internal struggles are put aside...The Bulls are too good to keep losing and have played the 2nd toughest schedule in the league to this point of the season...

GL...

 

[Forecast 28]

Re: NBA Week 4 thread (28-15, +$1566 on the year)...

There is probably a solid case to say that Wash may make a big push for this win with an 0-6 away record to date...And the Bulls could certainly
make a big push to try to end a five game overall and six game road
losing streak right here...Also, if you did not see, somebody posted
something showing that there was a strong tendency to lower scoring
games last year on the night after Thanksgiving.

 

[brewers7]

Re: NBA Week 4 thread (28-15, +$1566 on the year)...

There is probably a solid case to say that Wash may make a big push for this win with an 0-6 away record to date...And the Bulls could certainly
make a big push to try to end a five game overall and six game road
losing streak right here...Also, if you did not see, somebody posted
something showing that there was a strong tendency to lower scoring
games last year on the night after Thanksgiving.

Forecast:

I posted the Day After Thanksgiving totals results for the last 6 years in Froggy's thread...

I just don't see where the trend is there...Sounds like something John Q. Public's cook up, as if big meals on Thanksgiving will slow down Professional athletes on Friday...

Now watch there be 11 Unders tonight...

 

[brewers7]

Re: NBA Week 4 thread (28-15, +$1566 on the year)...

Here is the info Forecast:

Day after Thanksgiving:

2005-06: 6 Overs, 6 Unders
2004-05: 6 Overs, 7 Unders
2003-04: 4 Overs, 8 Unders
2002-03: 10 Overs, 1 Under
2001-02: 5 Overs, 6 Unders
2000-01: 7 Overs, 4 Unders


I saw you were looking for some info to either confirm or bust up that "info" you saw elsewhere, so I looked it up real quick for ya...

GL...

 

[brewers7]

Re: NBA Week 4 thread (28-15, +$1566 on the year)...

=======================================================================

Early looks at Saturday's games:

Detroit at Washington: We have our first game of the season where both teams play their 4th game in 5 nights (there are 2 tonight)...Generally speaking, this is one of the strongest situational spots where you would blindly take the Away Team every time...Unfortunately for me, we have a situation where DET has won 5 straight (covering 4) and WAS has lost 3 straight and 6 of 7 AND the Wizards have a relatively quick revenge spot here after losing at DET by 9 on 11/17...WAS cannot hit the ocean right now...Gilbert Arenas had 3 points last night on 1-for-12 shooting and hit just 1-for-5 from the FT line to boot...If you follow the 4-of-5 trend blindly, DET is the only play here, but I am not confident as WAS is 2-0 ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bk games, and when they hosted CLE last Saturday when both teams were bk-2-bk, WAS won by 12, their only win in their last 7 games...As far as the total goes, DET has been an Over team at Home and an Under team on the Road since Coach Flip Saunders took over last season...DET is 5-2 to the Over at Home this year and 5-1 to the Under on the Road this season...WAS has gone Under in 7 of their 8 losses, including 6 straight, and Over in 4 of their 5 wins, including their last win against CLE at Home when both teams were on back-enders (like tonight)...And that game against CLE was ALSO a quick revenge game from an earlier loss...So I may have to buck the trend here, because the other situational trends point to a WAS win...

Atlanta at Orlando: Josh Childress is questionable for Atlanta and Grant Hill is expected to miss for Orlando...The Home Team has won 8 straight in this h2h series and Orlando has a quick revenge spot here from a loss to ATL on 11/5...ATL lost in OT at Home (to SEA) in their only back-end of a bk-2-bk this season, while ORL is 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS in this spot...They played a 177 on 11/5, but both teams have yet to play an Under when going on the back-end of bk-2-bks...

Miami at Charlotte: Jason Williams and James Posey are questionable for Miami...The Heat are a DOG for the first time against the Bobcats...Miami is 7-1 vs. this franchise, but just 3-5 ATS...CHAR's only win over Miami was at Home on 3/26/05...The Heat are playing their 4th game in 5 days and were 1-2 ATS in this spot last season, but all 3 instances were at Home...This trend is of course stronger for the Away Teams...CHAR is 2-0 SU & ATS this season (beating CLE at Home and SA at SA) and the Bobcats were a strong Cover team in this situational spot last season (14-6-1 ATS)...Miami has lost 3 straight and 6 of 7...CHAR has gone Under both times in this spot this season...MIA has gone Over 3 straight games overall...

Philadelphia at Cleveland: Chris Webber and Stephen Hunter are questionable for Philly...Larry Hughes expected to miss...The double 4-of-5 trend will be put to the test again here...Both teams are playing their 4th game in 5 days...But Philly is off a big win and CLE is off a painful loss last night, so we have a conflicting trend (The NBA Handicapping 101 trend) that states that you take the good bounce-back team off a loss vs. the bad let-down team off a win...Another tough call for me because I want to blindly take the Away Team here as the 4-of-5 trend dictates, but the other situational factors come into play here...Allen Iverson has always played well at CLE, putting up one monster game after another...Philly has won 10 of their last 13 trips into Cleveland SU...They did get slaughtered by 33 their last trip in on 4/4/06...CLE is a totally different team at Home and will win this game, the only question is whether they cover the spread here...Philly is 3-0 ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bks while CLE is 0-3 ATS in this same spot and both teams have gone 2-1 to the Under in regulation time in this spot...These teams have had 5 straight Overs in this h2h series...

Chicago at New York: The Bulls are just terrible right now...Terrible...The addition of Ben Wallace was supposed to give this team a strong defensive presence, but there has been no evidence of this...Wallace played less than 20 minutes against Philly and the Sixers torched them with 54% shooting and 123 points...The Bulls are now 4-47 since 1999-00 while the Circus is in Chicago, and the Bulls may as well join that circus themselves because maybe they'd be better lion-tamers than basketball players...This is the final game of their 7-game Circus Road Trip and they are 0-6 to this point...The Bulls are 0-2 SU & ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bks and NY is 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS in this same spot...CHI has won 6 of the last 7 h2h in this series...The Knicks are suddenly an Under team now, going Under 6 of the last 8 (with one of the Overs going over the total by 1/2 a point)...

LA Clippers at Minnesota: The Clips are suddenly stumbling slightly, losing 3 of 4 and barely beating Philly at Home in OT during that stretch...Clips now on a NC4 after a C4...LAC 1-2 ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not this season and Minny is 1-2 ATS on the back-end of bk-2-bk games this season...Clips could be looking ahead slightly to an ESPN game Sunday night vs. the Nuggets, but it's hard to say, because they could use a "W" now...The Clips had lost 7 straight and 12 of 13 at Minny before winning there he last meeting of this h2h series on 3/13/06...3 straight and 5 of 6 in this h2h series have gone Under...

New Orleans at Dallas: David West is doubtful for New Orleans...Devean George questionable for Dallas...The Hornets continue to be a streaky ATS team...They were last year and they have picked up right where they left off this year...They started with a C3, then NC4, then C4 and now a NC2 as they head to Dallas tonight...Josh Howard is back, so look out now...The mavs started the season with a Finals hangover at 0-4, but have since won 8 straight, including a nice win at SA last night...Obviousl let-down spot here...New Orleans is playing their 4th game in 5 days, are coming off a loss last night, playing a Dallas squad in a let-down spot, so on the surface, this would be the best spot for the 4-of-5 Away Team to cover tonight...Right?...Well, the problem is Dallas has beaten this Hornets' team 17 straight times SU, but, are just 5-11-1 ATS in these 17 wins...Dallas did bury this team by 24 last April, but NO had a rough April last year...Another factor in favor of NO is that they shot 33.8% from the field on Friday so they are deemed to be in "extreme" bounce-back mode by me...Both teams are 2-1 to the Under in back-enders this season and have gone Under 3 straight and 6 of 7 h2h...

Memphis at Houston: Eddie Jones is questionable for Memphis...The Grizz have actually put together 5 straight pretty good games in a row...MEM won both games in HOU last year...HOU is 4-1 SU at Home this year, but just 1-4 ATS, not covering 4 straight...These teams Under 7 of last 9 h2h...HOU 0-2 ATS when they have rest and their opponents do not this season, while MEMP are 2-2 ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bk games...The Griz have covered 4 straight overall...

Boston at Milwaukee: Maurice Williams is questionable for Milwaukee...The Bucks have won 3 straight and 7 of 10 h2h and have covered 9 of the last 10 vs. Boston...MILW is 0-2 ATS this season when they have rest and their opponents do not...BOS is 2-0-1 ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bks...All 3 of the h2h meetings last season went Under...

Portland at Sacramento: Ron Artest is questionable for Sacramento...The Kings rose up without Artest last night and pretty much led from start to finish at Seattle with the 109-100 victory...SAC is 0-2 SU & ATS this season in the back-end of bk-2-bks...PORT is 2-1 SU & ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not with SA being the team they lost to and din't cover against, but all 3 instances were at Home...These teams have gone Over 7 straight and 13 of 14 in this h2h series...PORT Over 6 of 7 overall and SAC Over 6 straight themselves...

Utah at Golden State: Baron Davis is questionable for Golden State...Utah sporting the best record in the league at 12-1...And the Jazz are suddenly an Over Team, even with AK47 returning...Utah has gone Over 7 of their last 8 games...GS Over 3 straight, including that insane 269 total at Denver Friday night, their highest output in a loss since 1991...These teams actually had an easy Under on 11/4 at Utah, seeing the Jazz win that game by 24...The Jazz have won all 3 games this season where they and their opponent both were on the back-end of a bk-2-bk, including that win over GS...So we do have a revenge spot here, although there is also a strong Chart-play against GS because they are on a NC2 after having a C8...

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[brewers7]

Re: NBA Week 4 thread (28-15, +$1566 on the year)...

========================================================================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ========================================================================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
========================================================================
Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
========================================================================
Season To Date: 33-20, +$1538

Sides: 14-8, +$719, Totals: 11-9, +$401, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-1, +$193, ML: 1-1, +$29, Quarters: 2-0, +$200

========================================================================

A lot of conflicting trends tonight...Want to bet a few more, but may wait for 2H lines tonight...

Saturday, November 25

New Orleans/Dallas under 187 -- $156 to win $150

The Mavs have gone Under 4 straight and the Hornets have gone Under 2 straight and both teams are 2-1 to the Under in the back-end of bk-2-bk games this season...These teams had 3 unders h2h last season, including a game on 4/8/06 (a Saturday) at Dallas where the Mavs had just beaten the Spurs at SA the night before and the Hornets were playing their 4th game in 5 days (all like tonight) and Dallas won that game (not letting down, with the 101-77 vistory)...The big key here is that Peja Stojakovic is OUT tonight, and with David West already OUT, where are the points going to come from for the Hornets?...Peja only scored 8 points last night and the Hornets had a 165 total...Ok, it was against Minny, but NO wion't be able to score with Dallas tonight, so to have a chance, they need to slow the pace down...NO just had a 175 at PHOE 2 games ago, so why can't they slow this one down enough to stay Under this 187 total?...NO did stay Under in three of their four 4-of-5 spots last year, including their game at Dallas as already mentioned...

Good Luck...brewers7
========================================================================

Saturday's Picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) Port, 2) NO, 3) Was, 4) Phi, 5) Chi, 6) Atl, 7) Memp, 8) Bos, 9) Utah, 10) Mia, 11) LAC

Totals:

1) NO un, 2) Mia un, 3) Atl un, 4) Phi ov, 5) Port ov, 6) Chi ov, 7) LAC un, 8) Utah un, 9) Memp ov, 10) Bos un, 11) Was un

========================================================================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above[/COLOR]...
========================================================================
Recent Results:
Yesterday: 1-1 (-$55)
Last 3 days: 4-5 (-$178)
Last 7 days: 8-7 (+$308)
========================================================================
Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
========================================================================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management?Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble?Act professional?
========================================================================

<!-- / message -->

 

[Forecast 28]

Re: NBA Week 4 thread (28-15, +$1566 on the year)...

Brewers: Thanks for posting that information yesterday on the post-Thanksgiving totals...It helped me select two overs that both should have won, if not for a bad ref non-call near the end of the SA vs Dallas
game...I think we have a difference of opinion on the possible impact of internal problems on a team's performance, although I see you have
radically changed your opinion of Chicago after last night's game...It's easy
to say now, but I think it was a reach to trust them last night, and I might
actually pick against them tonight, as they may not be worthy of road
favorite status in any game right now...As bad as Washington was last
night, I like your idea that they may be a good pick tonight, as it looks
like a big letdown situation for Detroit off five wins, while Wash is off
three losses.

 

[brewers7]

Re: NBA Week 4 thread (28-15, +$1566 on the year)...

Brewers: Thanks for posting that information yesterday on the post-Thanksgiving totals...It helped me select two overs that both should have won, if not for a bad ref non-call near the end of the SA vs Dallas
game...I think we have a difference of opinion on the possible impact of internal problems on a team's performance, although I see you have
radically changed your opinion of Chicago after last night's game...It's easy
to say now, but I think it was a reach to trust them last night, and I might
actually pick against them tonight, as they may not be worthy of road
favorite status in any game right now...As bad as Washington was last
night, I like your idea that they may be a good pick tonight, as it looks
like a big letdown situation for Detroit off five wins, while Wash is off
three losses.

Yeah, you must have it right in regards to CHI and their internal struggles, but without knowing the specifics of those "internal struggles", I have to go by the numbers and by my handicapping abilities when looking at the games...The CHI newspapers don't mention anything specific...But the Bulls looked HORRIBLE last night...I don't know what is wrong there, but that was the most points ever allowed by a Scott Skiles' coached CHI team...No defense at all...

I want to take the Bulls and bet them again tonight, but simply cannot after last night...Now watch them win by 20 tonight...

And no problem with the Thanksgiving info...You got ripped off big-time with the Dallas/SA Over, and I believe the Overs and Unders were fairly equal again last night with 6 Overs, 6 Unders and 1 Push, and that includes that Dallas Under by 1 point...

WASH is in the same exact situational spot (if you ignore the 4-of-5 situation) as they were last Saturday when they beat CLE...Revenge game, at Home, coming in with 3 straight losses and bad shooting in all 3, a bk-2-bk and opponent with 5 straight wins coming in and a bk-2-bk themselves...

GL...

 

[BOBBYW]

Re: NBA Week 4 thread (28-15, +$1566 on the year)...

THANX B7 AND GLTY.....

 

[brewers7]

Re: NBA Week 4 thread (28-15, +$1566 on the year)...

=======================================================================

Early looks at Sunday's games:

Indiana at Toronto: Marquis Daniels questionable for Indiana and Mo Peterson expected to miss for Toronto...The Raptors are a completely different team at Home thus far this season...3-2 at Home and 0-7 on the Road...TOR 6-6 SU and 8-4 ATS during Sunday Home games last season and most of those were 1:00 starts...Indy has Covered 4 straight overall and TOR just missed covering 5 straight last time out with a 4-point loss at ATL...Toronto Under 5 of their last 6 overall and Indy a push and 2 unders in their last 3 games...Nothing significant jumping out here, maybe the Under is a play...

LA Clippers at Denver: Chris kaman doubtful for the Clips...Reggie Evans probable for Denver...Revenge spot here for the Nuggets, who have been an Over machine, with 9 Overs and a Push in their last 10 games since (you got it) they had their only Under of the season on opening night at Staples vs. the Clippers...But remember, Melo got ejected early in the 3Q in that game, so if that didn't happen, that game may have also gone Over...The Clips have Not Covered 5 straight after a C4...The Clips are 0-2 ATS on the back-end of bk-2-bks this season...DEN 1-1 ATS when they have rest and their opponents do not...The Clips have only gone Over 210 twice this season, and both times were against PHOE...But let's face it, the Nuggets have a similar offensive philosophy comparable to the Suns...My initial rection believe it or not is to go Under here, as these teams hve gone Under 6 straight and 8 of 9 h2h...The Clips have also gone Under in both of their back-enders this season...But how can I possibly bet the Nuggets Under?...I cannot...DEN is 5-0 to the Over at Home this season...The Clips just had a 200 on Saturday at Minny, with just 143 shots taken in the game...Despite staying Under in their first meeting at LAC, there were 170 shots put up in that game, but it was brick-city...Something tells me that the Clips will want to slow the pace of the game down, but that may be difficult against the Nuggets and the Clips have some guys who can run...The Clips have won 8 of the last 9 in this h2h series, but the revenge spot favors the Nuggets...

San Antonio at Seattle: Manu Ginobili is questionable for the Spurs and Danny Fortson is questionable for the Sonics...The Home team has won 9 of the last 10 in this h2h series and the Home Team had Covered 9 straight in this h2h series until their last meeting on 4/11/06, where visiting SEA covered by 1/2 a point at SA...SA is 2-0 SU & ATS after a loss this season, but they haven't covered their last 4 trips to SEA...The Spurs play at GS on Monday...These teams have gone Over 6 of the last 8 h2h...

Phoenix at Portland: Leandro Barbosa is questionable for Phoenix...After a 1-5 start, PHOE has gone 5-1 and will attempt to go over .500 for the first time this season...PHOE 1-0 ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not so far this season and they were 13-7 ATS in this situational spot last year and started last season 8-1 ATS in this spot...PORT 2-1 SU & ATS on the back-end of bk-2-bks, but both wins and covers were at Home...PHOE is 8-2 SU and 6-3-1 ATS in this h2h series, with * Overs in the last 10 games h2h...The Suns lack of depth makes it troublesome for them to close out games, while PORT has been a completely different team at Home, going 4-2 SU & ATS...PHOE just 1-4 SU & 2-3 ATS this season on the Road, but I would expect the Suns to turn that around...

New Jersey at LA Lakers: Jordan Farmar is questionable for the Lakers...The Lakers have established home-court advantage thus far this season...LAL is 7-1 SU & 4-3-1 ATS...NJ is playing the final leg of this 4-game Road trip, where they have lost all 3 of the previous games, not covering 2 and pushing the last one...NJ Coach Lawrence Frank benched his starters in the 4Q against PHOE and the scrubs came in and got them back into the game...The Nets have covered 3 of their last 4 trips into Staples, winning 3 times...My first inclination is to take the points here, but I am not sold on the Nets...The Lakers have a way of sleepwalking at time at Home and have had difficulty putting away teams at Staples in recent years...This is a chart-play to the Over for the Lakers as they had 6 straight Unders before going Over in their last 2...

=======================================================================

 

[brewers7]

Re: NBA Week 4 thread (28-15, +$1566 on the year)...

========================================================================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ========================================================================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
========================================================================
Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
========================================================================
Season To Date: 34-20, +$1688

Sides: 14-8, +$719, Totals: 12-9, +$551, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-1, +$193, ML: 1-1, +$29, Quarters: 2-0, +$200

========================================================================

Sunday, November 26

LA Clippers/Denver, 1Q, under 55 -- $55 to win $50

Bet this at 5dimes because the juice on this Under in the 1Q at Pinny is too high, got a better price at 5dimes...The total is going up as Kaman probably won't play, which doesn't mean a thing, really, but public squares will undoubtedly bet the line up, which really has me tempted to take the Clips here, but I am only passing on the Clips due to the revenge spot...The angle in play here is that the Clips are 9-2 to the Under in the 1Q this season and have not had a 55-point 1Q all season long...Even Denver hasn't had too many 1st quarters Over 55...I believe the Clips will try and slow Denver down, but inevitably, there will be track-meet like spurts at times which cannot be avoided in Denver games...All I need here is some cold shooting in the 1Q and for the Clips to try and at least attempt to play a half-court game, going to Elton Brand in the block as much as possible...Vegas is finally adjusting these Denver totals...

Good Luck...brewers7
========================================================================

Sunday's Picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) Sea, 2) NJ, 3) LAC, 4) Phoe, 5) Tor

Totals:

1) Phoe ov, 2) Sea ov, 3) NJ ov, 4) LAC ov, 5) Tor ov

========================================================================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above[/COLOR]...
========================================================================
Recent Results:
Yesterday: 1-0 (+$150)
Last 3 days: 3-3 (-$14)
Last 7 days: 8-7 (+$308)
========================================================================
Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
========================================================================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management?Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble?Act professional?
========================================================================