Reload
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Reload's NFL Week 8 "Double Penetration" featuring my NFL "Double Load Shocker" Game of the Year!
EOG "If You Know It Show It" Writeup Contest Record: 11-11-2 (-0.46 units)
Reload's NFL "Double Load Shocker" Game of the Year:
Jacksonville Jaguars plus 6 points against the Philadelphia Eagles
(Pinnacle +104: "This sportsbook does everything right and goes beyond the call of duty." - THE SHRINK)
(Risking 1.00 unit to win 1.04 units)
"Sunday Bloody Sunday" Blowout of the Week:
Cincinnati Bengals minus 4.5 points against the Atlanta Falcons
(Pinnacle -102: "This sportsbook does everything right and goes beyond the call of duty." - THE SHRINK)
(Risking 1.02 units to win 1.00 unit)
Last week was my biggest week of the season as my strongest two games of the year cashed and were right on the money making my "Double Penetration" package a solid 2-0! It was headlined by my NFC "Lock and Load" Game of the Year as the underdog Tampa Bay Buccaneers won outright against the Philadelphia Eagles in an easy cover! I wrote that Tampa Bay would win the game straight up by 3 points and ended up being just a little off in that they only won by 2! And even more accurate than that, I hit perfection in my AFC "Divisional Destruction" Game of the Month as it cashed with the Kansas City Chiefs winning outright by 3 against San Diego! I predicted it would be an "old AFC West" game that would come down to a field goal either way in the final minute and that's just what happened!
Did you go 2-0 last week? Did you get two easy winners like those? If you missed out, get your reloads in and get on board this week as I have another "Game of the Year" release headlining "Double Penetration" again! This time, it is my big NFL "Double Load Shocker" Game of the Year going this week and I am releasing it along with my "Sunday Bloody Sunday" Blowout of the Week! Just when all of the critics said I was having a losing NFL season, a big week for my reload-ers and I came through! And it will continue in Week 8 with this week's "Double Penetration" selections that will nail your bookmaker again!
For my first play in this week's "Double Penetration" and my best bet for Week 8, I am taking the Jacksonville Jaguars plus 6 points against the Philadelphia Eagles in my NFL "Double Load Shocker" Game of Year!
I have gone against the Philadelphia Eagles for the last four weeks and although I lost when they played the Packers and Cowboys, it was a nice rebound to cash with the Saints and Buccaneers. This week, I see the losing trend continuing for the Eagles as two games they should have won in the last couple of weeks slipped away and I can see the same thing happening here. This team has not been the same since their big win over the Cowboys and despite having a long four week homestand, I can see them looking past the Jaguars here. Between the emotional win over the Cowboys still in their minds, and two of the closest losses imaginable following that game, it is going to take more time for the Eagles to get back on track and it still will not happen this week. Philadelphia gets a bye week next week and then a big divisional game against Washington following that. The Eagles defense showed some improvement against Tampa Bay, but it will be a tougher test to stop Jacksonville even with the home field advantage. On offense, Brian Westbrook is continuing to carry the load as he has more rushing attempts and receptions than anyone else on the team. But as the Eagles are finding out, it takes more than just one player to win games in the NFL and they have found all sorts of ways to fall behind in games or fall apart at the end to not hold on. And until something like a blowout loss happens for the Eagles, I think that nothing else will bring them back to reality.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have won all of their home games this season but have lost each time on the road, including an embarrassing loss in Houston last week. This makes it appealing for who I like to call the "against the spread" junkies out there to go against them here in that they have not covered the spread in a road game yet this year. But the problem is that the Jaguars were an overvalued team in all of their road games so far this year and this seems to finally be the spot where they can get an easy cover. For example, they were 6.5 point underdogs in Indianapolis against the Colts and came only a bit short from covering there. Now they get about the same as that in 6 points against the Eagles who are a far more inconsistent opponent than the Colts. This spells value to me and a good number in the pointspread likely because of the disappointing loss in Houston last week. The Jaguars offense led by Byron Leftwich is average compared to the rest of the league, but quietly has been doing enough to be very competitive in most of their games this season. This included putting up good numbers against NFC East opponents such as 30 points on the road in Washington and 24 back in Week 1 against Dallas. Brian Westbrook of the Eagles may be ranked 14th in the NFL for average rushing yards of 77 per game, but guess who is right behind him in 15th place at 75 yards per game - it is Fred Taylor of the Jaguars! On defense, Jacksonville has been one of the league's top 10 as they have only given up an average of 292.5 yards per game and less than 17 points per game. Rashean Mathis of the Jaguars is still tied for the league lead in interceptions this season with 4. Statistics may make the Eagles a top offense in the league, but the Jaguars have stopped more consistently good offenses such as when they held the Colts to only 14 points when their offense had the ball. Stopping Brian Westbrook is a big challenge for any defense, but this is the best defense that the Eagles will have faced all season thus far. It is easy for Brian Westbrook to get open field runs against the 49ers, Texans, and even last week against the Buccaneers. But we will see what happens when the unflashy, ugly, unpopular, un-talked about type of team and defense like Jacksonville's comes to Philly.
The line at 6 points is too high here and I cannot see people lined up around the corner to lay 6 points with the Eagles after their last two losses. Although Philadelphia has performed well at home and Jacksonville has not won on the road either straight up or against the spread, this is the game where the crossroads of value from all of that come into play. I feel Jacksonville even has what it takes to win this outright by 3 or 4 points and will give the Eagles a close game as they did when traveling for other big games to Washington and Indianapolis. As for last week's loss in Houston, you have to just accept it as a bad day for the Jaguars who came into the game as an overhyped big road favorite. Any team winning at home 41-0 and then going on the road as a big favorite against a lesser opponent is due for a letdown and that is what happened there. But if they had blown out Houston last week, you might be looking at only getting 3 points in this one instead of 6. And interestingly enough, the Jaguars are 9-2-1 against the spread in their last 12 games that followed one where they scored 14 points or less. Jacksonville has also gone 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games following a game where they failed to cover the spread. So let's capitalize on some value and take the Jaguars on the road getting 6 here. Take the Jaguars plus the points and shoot a double load on it! It's my NFL "Double Load Shocker" Game of the Year!
For my second selection in this week's "Double Penetration", I am taking the Cincinnati Bengals minus 4.5 points against the Atlanta Falcons in my "Sunday Bloody Sunday" Blowout of the Week!
The Atlanta Falcons come into this one off a very physical and emotional overtime win at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers. This should translate into a letdown as they now have to go on the road and face a tougher opponent in the Bengals who are home for a second straight week. The offense of Atlanta continues to be overhyped and centers around Michael Vick year after year. But it is too one-dimensional to be successful in the long run and this inconsistency should show itself against Cincinnati. For example, the Falcons lead the league in average rushing yards per game at an amazing average of 222. But they are dead last in the league in passing yardage at only 132 average passing yards per game. A one-dimensional offense may work in some spots but it will not work against the Bengals, especially on the road where it is more difficult to call audibles. The defense of Atlanta has been one of the worst in the league against the pass giving up an average of 230 yards per game and this should open up all kinds of opportunities for Carson Palmer of the Bengals - making it one of the weakest pass defenses he has faced all season. This is also a terrible spot for the Falcons as not only should it be a letdown after the overtime win last week, but they are coming off spending four straight weeks at home. The Falcons are also 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games following a win, as well as 2-8-1 in their last 11 games following a game where they scored more than 30 points. All of this points to a rude awakening for Atlanta in Week 8 and a blowout loss in Cincinnati.
The Cincinnati Bengals come into this one off of a hard fought win at home against the Carolina Panthers. This should give them good momentum going into this week's game against another NFC opponent in the Falcons. Carson Palmer has the Bengals putting up an average of 215 yards per game through the air on offense and this should translate into moving the ball with ease against the poor Falcons pass defense. The defense of the Bengals has shown good improvement since the 38 points they gave up to New England back on October 1. They have allowed only 14 points in two straight games and I see this effort continuing in Week 8. But bettors have been slow to jump back on the Bengals bandwagon after two losses in a row and a squeaker of a push against the spread last week. Despite that, I can see this as a game where the Cincinnati offense can get back on track for a breakout game getting just what the doctor ordered in the Falcons. The Atlanta defense has gotten soft in their last two games after starting out the season impressively. The biggest challenge for the Bengals will be trying to stop the ground attack of the Falcons rushing game. But in their last road game, the Falcons outgained the Saints on both the ground and air yet they got crushed and only came away with a total of 3 points on the board. In fact, on the road this season the Falcons have had the ball in the red zone five times and only scored a touchdown once. Given this, I see the Bengals being able to do a lot more than the Falcons in the red zone, as well as the rest of the field.
The line favoring the Bengals by 4.5 should be higher here. I can see Cincinnati winning by double digits in this one and the Falcons coming nowhere near their performance last week. The last time that the two teams met, it was the Falcons winning a big Sunday night game in Atlanta back in 2002 by the score of 30 to 3. But the spot of this game and talent of the two teams has changed a lot since then. And as those of you who followed me in the WNBA know, "Payback's the Bitch" in the NFL also! I look for the Bengals to not just win but win big in an easy blowout here. Take the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points in my "Sunday Bloody Sunday" Blowout of the Week!
Final thoughts on Week 8:
It would be hard to duplicate last week's 2-0, but I am giving it my best shot here - and even am releasing another "Game of the Year" play! Last week was a good week to emphasize situational and spot handicapping. Most of the public did not look at last week's games hard enough to see those angles and it cost everyone a bundle. This week, I would say my picks include some spot handicapping but moreso capitalize on public perception creating value in both lines. Everyone thinks the Philadelphia Eagles are "due" for a big bounceback at home but with how flat they have started out their last couple of games I think there are more issues to look at there. And everyone always gets excited when Michael Vick and the Falcons seem to start getting hot in a big publicized victory like they had last week. Everyone out there will be getting their reloads in looking to get money back lost from last week, but the only place to find the best advice for football is right here on EOG. And the NBA even starts next week also so stay tuned right here!
EOG "If You Know It Show It" Writeup Contest Record: 11-11-2 (-0.46 units)
Reload's NFL "Double Load Shocker" Game of the Year:
Jacksonville Jaguars plus 6 points against the Philadelphia Eagles
(Pinnacle +104: "This sportsbook does everything right and goes beyond the call of duty." - THE SHRINK)
(Risking 1.00 unit to win 1.04 units)
"Sunday Bloody Sunday" Blowout of the Week:
Cincinnati Bengals minus 4.5 points against the Atlanta Falcons
(Pinnacle -102: "This sportsbook does everything right and goes beyond the call of duty." - THE SHRINK)
(Risking 1.02 units to win 1.00 unit)
Last week was my biggest week of the season as my strongest two games of the year cashed and were right on the money making my "Double Penetration" package a solid 2-0! It was headlined by my NFC "Lock and Load" Game of the Year as the underdog Tampa Bay Buccaneers won outright against the Philadelphia Eagles in an easy cover! I wrote that Tampa Bay would win the game straight up by 3 points and ended up being just a little off in that they only won by 2! And even more accurate than that, I hit perfection in my AFC "Divisional Destruction" Game of the Month as it cashed with the Kansas City Chiefs winning outright by 3 against San Diego! I predicted it would be an "old AFC West" game that would come down to a field goal either way in the final minute and that's just what happened!
Did you go 2-0 last week? Did you get two easy winners like those? If you missed out, get your reloads in and get on board this week as I have another "Game of the Year" release headlining "Double Penetration" again! This time, it is my big NFL "Double Load Shocker" Game of the Year going this week and I am releasing it along with my "Sunday Bloody Sunday" Blowout of the Week! Just when all of the critics said I was having a losing NFL season, a big week for my reload-ers and I came through! And it will continue in Week 8 with this week's "Double Penetration" selections that will nail your bookmaker again!
For my first play in this week's "Double Penetration" and my best bet for Week 8, I am taking the Jacksonville Jaguars plus 6 points against the Philadelphia Eagles in my NFL "Double Load Shocker" Game of Year!
I have gone against the Philadelphia Eagles for the last four weeks and although I lost when they played the Packers and Cowboys, it was a nice rebound to cash with the Saints and Buccaneers. This week, I see the losing trend continuing for the Eagles as two games they should have won in the last couple of weeks slipped away and I can see the same thing happening here. This team has not been the same since their big win over the Cowboys and despite having a long four week homestand, I can see them looking past the Jaguars here. Between the emotional win over the Cowboys still in their minds, and two of the closest losses imaginable following that game, it is going to take more time for the Eagles to get back on track and it still will not happen this week. Philadelphia gets a bye week next week and then a big divisional game against Washington following that. The Eagles defense showed some improvement against Tampa Bay, but it will be a tougher test to stop Jacksonville even with the home field advantage. On offense, Brian Westbrook is continuing to carry the load as he has more rushing attempts and receptions than anyone else on the team. But as the Eagles are finding out, it takes more than just one player to win games in the NFL and they have found all sorts of ways to fall behind in games or fall apart at the end to not hold on. And until something like a blowout loss happens for the Eagles, I think that nothing else will bring them back to reality.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have won all of their home games this season but have lost each time on the road, including an embarrassing loss in Houston last week. This makes it appealing for who I like to call the "against the spread" junkies out there to go against them here in that they have not covered the spread in a road game yet this year. But the problem is that the Jaguars were an overvalued team in all of their road games so far this year and this seems to finally be the spot where they can get an easy cover. For example, they were 6.5 point underdogs in Indianapolis against the Colts and came only a bit short from covering there. Now they get about the same as that in 6 points against the Eagles who are a far more inconsistent opponent than the Colts. This spells value to me and a good number in the pointspread likely because of the disappointing loss in Houston last week. The Jaguars offense led by Byron Leftwich is average compared to the rest of the league, but quietly has been doing enough to be very competitive in most of their games this season. This included putting up good numbers against NFC East opponents such as 30 points on the road in Washington and 24 back in Week 1 against Dallas. Brian Westbrook of the Eagles may be ranked 14th in the NFL for average rushing yards of 77 per game, but guess who is right behind him in 15th place at 75 yards per game - it is Fred Taylor of the Jaguars! On defense, Jacksonville has been one of the league's top 10 as they have only given up an average of 292.5 yards per game and less than 17 points per game. Rashean Mathis of the Jaguars is still tied for the league lead in interceptions this season with 4. Statistics may make the Eagles a top offense in the league, but the Jaguars have stopped more consistently good offenses such as when they held the Colts to only 14 points when their offense had the ball. Stopping Brian Westbrook is a big challenge for any defense, but this is the best defense that the Eagles will have faced all season thus far. It is easy for Brian Westbrook to get open field runs against the 49ers, Texans, and even last week against the Buccaneers. But we will see what happens when the unflashy, ugly, unpopular, un-talked about type of team and defense like Jacksonville's comes to Philly.
The line at 6 points is too high here and I cannot see people lined up around the corner to lay 6 points with the Eagles after their last two losses. Although Philadelphia has performed well at home and Jacksonville has not won on the road either straight up or against the spread, this is the game where the crossroads of value from all of that come into play. I feel Jacksonville even has what it takes to win this outright by 3 or 4 points and will give the Eagles a close game as they did when traveling for other big games to Washington and Indianapolis. As for last week's loss in Houston, you have to just accept it as a bad day for the Jaguars who came into the game as an overhyped big road favorite. Any team winning at home 41-0 and then going on the road as a big favorite against a lesser opponent is due for a letdown and that is what happened there. But if they had blown out Houston last week, you might be looking at only getting 3 points in this one instead of 6. And interestingly enough, the Jaguars are 9-2-1 against the spread in their last 12 games that followed one where they scored 14 points or less. Jacksonville has also gone 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games following a game where they failed to cover the spread. So let's capitalize on some value and take the Jaguars on the road getting 6 here. Take the Jaguars plus the points and shoot a double load on it! It's my NFL "Double Load Shocker" Game of the Year!
For my second selection in this week's "Double Penetration", I am taking the Cincinnati Bengals minus 4.5 points against the Atlanta Falcons in my "Sunday Bloody Sunday" Blowout of the Week!
The Atlanta Falcons come into this one off a very physical and emotional overtime win at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers. This should translate into a letdown as they now have to go on the road and face a tougher opponent in the Bengals who are home for a second straight week. The offense of Atlanta continues to be overhyped and centers around Michael Vick year after year. But it is too one-dimensional to be successful in the long run and this inconsistency should show itself against Cincinnati. For example, the Falcons lead the league in average rushing yards per game at an amazing average of 222. But they are dead last in the league in passing yardage at only 132 average passing yards per game. A one-dimensional offense may work in some spots but it will not work against the Bengals, especially on the road where it is more difficult to call audibles. The defense of Atlanta has been one of the worst in the league against the pass giving up an average of 230 yards per game and this should open up all kinds of opportunities for Carson Palmer of the Bengals - making it one of the weakest pass defenses he has faced all season. This is also a terrible spot for the Falcons as not only should it be a letdown after the overtime win last week, but they are coming off spending four straight weeks at home. The Falcons are also 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games following a win, as well as 2-8-1 in their last 11 games following a game where they scored more than 30 points. All of this points to a rude awakening for Atlanta in Week 8 and a blowout loss in Cincinnati.
The Cincinnati Bengals come into this one off of a hard fought win at home against the Carolina Panthers. This should give them good momentum going into this week's game against another NFC opponent in the Falcons. Carson Palmer has the Bengals putting up an average of 215 yards per game through the air on offense and this should translate into moving the ball with ease against the poor Falcons pass defense. The defense of the Bengals has shown good improvement since the 38 points they gave up to New England back on October 1. They have allowed only 14 points in two straight games and I see this effort continuing in Week 8. But bettors have been slow to jump back on the Bengals bandwagon after two losses in a row and a squeaker of a push against the spread last week. Despite that, I can see this as a game where the Cincinnati offense can get back on track for a breakout game getting just what the doctor ordered in the Falcons. The Atlanta defense has gotten soft in their last two games after starting out the season impressively. The biggest challenge for the Bengals will be trying to stop the ground attack of the Falcons rushing game. But in their last road game, the Falcons outgained the Saints on both the ground and air yet they got crushed and only came away with a total of 3 points on the board. In fact, on the road this season the Falcons have had the ball in the red zone five times and only scored a touchdown once. Given this, I see the Bengals being able to do a lot more than the Falcons in the red zone, as well as the rest of the field.
The line favoring the Bengals by 4.5 should be higher here. I can see Cincinnati winning by double digits in this one and the Falcons coming nowhere near their performance last week. The last time that the two teams met, it was the Falcons winning a big Sunday night game in Atlanta back in 2002 by the score of 30 to 3. But the spot of this game and talent of the two teams has changed a lot since then. And as those of you who followed me in the WNBA know, "Payback's the Bitch" in the NFL also! I look for the Bengals to not just win but win big in an easy blowout here. Take the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points in my "Sunday Bloody Sunday" Blowout of the Week!
Final thoughts on Week 8:
It would be hard to duplicate last week's 2-0, but I am giving it my best shot here - and even am releasing another "Game of the Year" play! Last week was a good week to emphasize situational and spot handicapping. Most of the public did not look at last week's games hard enough to see those angles and it cost everyone a bundle. This week, I would say my picks include some spot handicapping but moreso capitalize on public perception creating value in both lines. Everyone thinks the Philadelphia Eagles are "due" for a big bounceback at home but with how flat they have started out their last couple of games I think there are more issues to look at there. And everyone always gets excited when Michael Vick and the Falcons seem to start getting hot in a big publicized victory like they had last week. Everyone out there will be getting their reloads in looking to get money back lost from last week, but the only place to find the best advice for football is right here on EOG. And the NBA even starts next week also so stay tuned right here!
.
arty