Moving along at a nice pace now after that awful 0-8-1 start to the season. Current ledger is 11-12-1 (12-11-1 on the radio show), so a shot to finally get into the black on these early plays with a good week.
314 Virginia +2'
Game looks like a tossup on paper, but I think the circumstances favor Virginia. NC State could be a bit discouraged off yet another tough loss. The Wolfpack are now 3-4 off the back to back losses to Wake Forest and Maryland. They remain a possibility to get to a bowl game with a win here as they still have North Carolina and East Carolina to finish off the season. But I don't get the sense this team is thinking bowl right now. Neither is Virginia. The Cavs are only 3-5, but they're definitely improving. They let the Maryland game get away, but played without question their best game of the season in wiping out North Carolina. Beating the Tar Heels is not a major accomplishment, but the fact that it was a really solid performace is a positive. The running game has really come to life the last couple weeks, QB Jameel Sewell looks like a keeper and the defense will be very excited after pitching a shutout. NC State continues to give away freebies, with a pair of third quarter turnovers killing them against Maryland. I've been on the Cavaliers the last two weeks, and will play them again here as home dogs.
346 Western Michigan -14'
There is not a lot of parity in the MAC this year, as the class of the league is definitely separating itself from the rest of the outfit. Western Michigan is clearly among the best teams in the league, while Eastern Michigan remains mired at the bottom of the conference food chain. What I really like here is the Western Michigan defense, which is proving to be extremely tough. Running on the Broncos is proving almost impossible. In fact, if you throw out an aberrational effort at Ohio, you'll find that WMU has held the rest of their opponents to a meager 41 ypg on the ground, which is pretty incredible. Eastern Michigan finally won a game Saturday, so they get to celebrate something for a change. This is a pretty good rivalry that has produced several exciting games, but I see a substantial gap between the programs right now. There are also a couple of situational angles that come into play here favoring Western Michigan. I don't have a problem playing chalk that completely stuffs the opposition run, so I'm going with the Broncos here.
372 Houston -17
Hopefully, Art Briles has figured out that when his team runs the football, they're good. That has clearly been the case this season, and I'm going to assume Briles will gear his game plan the right way here as the Cougars play host to a team that cannot stop the run at all. Central Florida is on the skids right now. Their last three opponents have run for an average of 247 ypg and the defense is clearly wearing down having to spend so much time on the field. As for the Knights offense, it sure isn't much. They are very erratic at QB and have left a ton of points off the scoreboard this year as a result of a multitude of gaffes. The fact that Houston lost a tight game to UCF last season should assure the right mindset for this game and I think a discouraged UCF squad might be reaching the point where they begin to mail it in. The euphoria of a conference title run and a bowl game last year is now a distant memory. Off two home losses to Pittsburgh and Rice, this has the look of a spot where the struggling road team really gets blasted, so I'm going to go ahead and lay the steep price and hope Houston plays to their capabilities here.
314 Virginia +2'
Game looks like a tossup on paper, but I think the circumstances favor Virginia. NC State could be a bit discouraged off yet another tough loss. The Wolfpack are now 3-4 off the back to back losses to Wake Forest and Maryland. They remain a possibility to get to a bowl game with a win here as they still have North Carolina and East Carolina to finish off the season. But I don't get the sense this team is thinking bowl right now. Neither is Virginia. The Cavs are only 3-5, but they're definitely improving. They let the Maryland game get away, but played without question their best game of the season in wiping out North Carolina. Beating the Tar Heels is not a major accomplishment, but the fact that it was a really solid performace is a positive. The running game has really come to life the last couple weeks, QB Jameel Sewell looks like a keeper and the defense will be very excited after pitching a shutout. NC State continues to give away freebies, with a pair of third quarter turnovers killing them against Maryland. I've been on the Cavaliers the last two weeks, and will play them again here as home dogs.
346 Western Michigan -14'
There is not a lot of parity in the MAC this year, as the class of the league is definitely separating itself from the rest of the outfit. Western Michigan is clearly among the best teams in the league, while Eastern Michigan remains mired at the bottom of the conference food chain. What I really like here is the Western Michigan defense, which is proving to be extremely tough. Running on the Broncos is proving almost impossible. In fact, if you throw out an aberrational effort at Ohio, you'll find that WMU has held the rest of their opponents to a meager 41 ypg on the ground, which is pretty incredible. Eastern Michigan finally won a game Saturday, so they get to celebrate something for a change. This is a pretty good rivalry that has produced several exciting games, but I see a substantial gap between the programs right now. There are also a couple of situational angles that come into play here favoring Western Michigan. I don't have a problem playing chalk that completely stuffs the opposition run, so I'm going with the Broncos here.
372 Houston -17
Hopefully, Art Briles has figured out that when his team runs the football, they're good. That has clearly been the case this season, and I'm going to assume Briles will gear his game plan the right way here as the Cougars play host to a team that cannot stop the run at all. Central Florida is on the skids right now. Their last three opponents have run for an average of 247 ypg and the defense is clearly wearing down having to spend so much time on the field. As for the Knights offense, it sure isn't much. They are very erratic at QB and have left a ton of points off the scoreboard this year as a result of a multitude of gaffes. The fact that Houston lost a tight game to UCF last season should assure the right mindset for this game and I think a discouraged UCF squad might be reaching the point where they begin to mail it in. The euphoria of a conference title run and a bowl game last year is now a distant memory. Off two home losses to Pittsburgh and Rice, this has the look of a spot where the struggling road team really gets blasted, so I'm going to go ahead and lay the steep price and hope Houston plays to their capabilities here.
